USAF/US NAVY 6G Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

Skunknotworks said:
FighterJock said:
Skunknotworks said:
nationalinterest.org

U.S. Navy to Arm Carriers With 1,000 Fifth and Sixth-Generation Stealth Fighters

A new plan released by Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday calls for a “family” of manned and unmanned sixth-generation aircraft.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org
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Interesting, but where is the US Navy going to get the funding for the 1000 fifth and sixth generation fighters from? :confused:
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I was wondering the same thing since NGAD is undoubtably expensive but only one can dream of such numbers just thought it was an interesting article even though it seems these numbers are not likely but I'm hoping for around 350-500 NGAD systems to come to fruition i wonder what the USAF NGAD numbers look like.
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"undoubtedly more expensive..."

But how much more? Currently, when speculating prices it's based on weight and production numbers. Weight goes up when building planes for carriers. Weight goes up for additional fuel load for increased range. Quantifying 1000 airframes likely goes to anticipating acquisition costs.

The first F-35A was reportedly $221M. The latest is $79M. B21 is speculated to be under $550M in 2016 dollars. F-35C is reportedly $95M, cost reductions largely based on overall F-35 production. The USAF has learned valuable lessons from how the F-35 program was handled. That wisdom was transferred to the B-21 program.

It sounds as if the Navy has internalized the production quantity as a function of cost argument. The proposed common system's between USAF and USN is another lesson learned. Production advances that allow suppliers to develop production tooling up front is another cost advantage we now enjoy.

My point is that learning is occurring. While there are physics we cannot currently overcome, there are significant advancements that have been made. We may be pleasantly suprised that the cost may not be as dramatic as was F-22 in its day.
 
NeilChapman said:
Skunknotworks said:
FighterJock said:
Skunknotworks said:
nationalinterest.org

U.S. Navy to Arm Carriers With 1,000 Fifth and Sixth-Generation Stealth Fighters

A new plan released by Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday calls for a “family” of manned and unmanned sixth-generation aircraft.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org
Click to expand...

Interesting, but where is the US Navy going to get the funding for the 1000 fifth and sixth generation fighters from? :confused:
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I was wondering the same thing since NGAD is undoubtably expensive but only one can dream of such numbers just thought it was an interesting article even though it seems these numbers are not likely but I'm hoping for around 350-500 NGAD systems to come to fruition i wonder what the USAF NGAD numbers look like.
Click to expand...
"undoubtedly more expensive..."

But how much more? Currently, when speculating prices it's based on weight and production numbers. Weight goes up when building planes for carriers. Weight goes up for additional fuel load for increased range. Quantifying 1000 airframes likely goes to anticipating acquisition costs.

The first F-35A was reportedly $221M. The latest is $79M. B21 is speculated to be under $550M in 2016 dollars. F-35C is reportedly $95M, cost reductions largely based on overall F-35 production. The USAF has learned valuable lessons from how the F-35 program was handled. That wisdom was transferred to the B-21 program.

It sounds as if the Navy has internalized the production quantity as a function of cost argument. The proposed common system's between USAF and USN is another lesson learned. Production advances that allow suppliers to develop production tooling up front is another cost advantage we now enjoy.

My point is that learning is occurring. While there are physics we cannot currently overcome, there are significant advancements that have been made. We may be pleasantly suprised that the cost may not be as dramatic as was F-22 in its day.
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You mean its going to break a 77 year tradition of price increases in airplane aquisitions? I'll believe it when I see it.
 
rooster said:
You mean its going to break a 77 year tradition of price increases in airplane aquisitions? I'll believe it when I see it.
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Well...I did say 'as dramatic .' It's not quite the same inference.

LRIP would likely be in the $250M range. In fact, I believe Kendall has said as much (multiple hundreds). After that it depends on production numbers and manufacturing prowess.
 
Grey Havoc said:

U.S. Navy Wants Its Carrier Air Wing 60% Uncrewed | Aviation Week Network

Navy leaders are setting requirements for Collaborative Combat Aircraft to increase the radius of ships, following the MQ-25’s lead.
aviationweek.com aviationweek.com

Why do I get a strong sense of impending doom here?
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That doesn't seem unreasonable if one assumes the unmanned components are much smaller than their manned counterparts and that there's no shortage of room on a Nimitz with the current CVW. If we're talking XQ-58 size aircraft; you could practically store them in the rafters like drop tanks. What would be alarming is if they want to dramatically reduce the number of manned aircraft. I don't have a subscription so I can't read the details.
 
@Josh_TN :Completely agree with you. There might be some incentives in the political sphere to use this opportunity to cut down cost through sizing down manned operations (as @Grey Havoc suggest, I would think), but that has not much chances to win a large number of approvals. Americans are happy with their Navy the way it protects them from cross Pacific threat, something US public is very aware off. There is also no signs among Navy leader to reduces manned operations.

On the contrary, IMOHO, unmanned is seen by Naval command as a way to re-acquire peripheral, less sexy, embarked missions such as ASW, refueling etc... Everything that needs a custom build platform.

Going unmanned would then be a way to make Naval needs to reconciliate with available budgets.

See Naval UCAV as tomorrow S-3, A-3, RA-5 or KC-6, something that hasn't been seen on a flatop for 20 years...
 
Regarding NGAD being in “informal” EMD, it may be the case that the advances in digital engineering and rapid prototyping has allowed aspects of aircraft development to exceed the pace of a traditional acquisition process. Moving into the EMD process without a formal Milestone B may be a way for development to continue without being slowed down by the acquisition process.
 
bobbymike said:

Secretive Jet Fighter Program Reaches Design Phase — Sort Of

Secretive Jet Fighter Program Reaches Design Phase — Sort Of
www.nationaldefensemagazine.org www.nationaldefensemagazine.org
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"Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the service’s next-generation jet fighter has reached its design phase, but clarified that he meant that “colloquially.” “We are working on the actual design of the aircraft … so that means we are in the engineering, manufacturing development phase,” he told reporters at the Air and Space Force Association’s annual conference in National Harbor, Maryland.
However, it has not reached what in the acquisition world is known as “Milestone B,” the engineering, manufacturing development, or EMD, phase. That requires a professional design review, which has yet to occur, he added."

"Kendall said the goal is to start the new aircraft’s production “by the end of the decade.” "


So, if that is true, then 'NGAD-AF' will take about as long to get from first flight of a full-scale demonstrator to production as the F-22 did at a time when the (first) Cold War was over and people were relaxing...

F-22
* YF-22 & YF-23 demonstrators first flights: 1990
* YF-22 down-select: 1991
* F-22 EMD start (Milestone B): 1994
* F-22A EMD prototype first flight: 1997
* F-22A LRIP start: 2001

NGAD-AF-manned:
* 'we have flown a full-scale demonstrator' announcement by Will Roper in 2020, September IIRC.
* NGAD manned-platform (initial low rate?) production start: ca. 2030 ??
.
During the past several years, I thought the program was meant to make use of the advanced (digital) design & (digital) development stuff to get faster to production of the 'manned platform' as well.
 
The fact that NGAD reached such milestones while staying contained inside a black program tells us that there is probably an order of magnitude less people involved, what could constitute a significant parameters to take into account when comparing the two.
 
TomcatViP said:
The fact that NGAD reached such milestones while staying contained inside a black program tells us that there is probably an order of magnitude less people involved, what could constitute a significant parameters to take into account when comparing the two.
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Yes, most probably.
But I would think they (the USAF) might want to have some manned NGADs available before/when China makes a real move on Taiwan.
I´m not so sure China will wait till 2030 or later, though that might now change/depend somewhat on what happens in eastern Europe, and on the economical front.
Or would the USAF (-leadership) be thinking about initial use of manned NGADs in a 'past Taiwan War'-era?
 
Additional thought/reflection:
Maybe Roper´s 'digital centuries'-approach/idea was to have NGAD ready or even fielded for such a 'Taiwan'-timeline, a design- & development-approach which has now been disregarded for the NGAD 'manned platform' (if I´m not mistaking) and which now only applies to the cheaper unmanned 'collaborative' assets. And then they´re once again going for a (very) extended development phase and for (a start of) fielding some ("several hundred million dollars costing") super-duper jets with all the desired whistles & bells, in the next decade indeed.
 
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Don't be surprised it there are 2 loyal wingmen types complementing ngad. One a shooter and one a jammer both with entirely unique airframes and powerplants. But I still distrust these 1st gen drones.
bobbymike said:
breakingdefense.com

China 'on track' for 6th-gen fighter, US Air Force needs to get there first: ACC chief - Breaking Defense

America's Chinese "frenemies" are "not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance. And I can also tell you they're on track," said Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
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Good for then. At least we will 150 ngad to counter them and a number of untested air combat drones. One of which may be revealed in about 3 years.
 
The new term in vogue is "Collaborative Combat Aircraft", and there will be a number of platforms ranging from expendables to "attritables" to "we really need this thing back". In terms of a high end UAV with its own independent sensors, weapons, and flight performance matched to the manned component, I'm quite sure there will be a single model. The lower tiers of expendable/attritable units seem to be where there will be the most variation and iteration.

EDIT: The USN might have a completely different platform for its program however.
 
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Foo Fighter said:
I would be very surprised if there were two loyal wingman types.
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I think most complex and expensive part is mission and flight computer, avionics and communication combo. One of the UCAV developer mention that for next gen UCAV they want to have common core and then changeable elements. Also you have efforts to open computer architecture to accept external software. This make sense - you do not need different core software to flight airframe, but definitely different shape and software suite for different missions: SEAD, tanker, SOF resupply, jamming, shooting, AWACS etc.
 
Look for 2 types. One a shooter. One a jammer. Both with nothing in common. You'll see the drones before you'll see ngad.
 
Moose said:
bobbymike said:
www.defensenews.com

US Air Force eyes NGAD deliveries by 2030. Can it be done?

"The odds are against it happening" by 2030, John Venable of the Heritage Foundation said. "In the last 25 or 30 years, nothing’s come in on time.”
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com
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B-21 is bucking that trend, if properly run NGAD may be able to as well.
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But isn´t B-21 designed with/ based on 'available and already mature technologies' to suppress cost & development time, while NGAD-manned is supposed to be a bigger quantum leap?
 
Dreamfighter said:
Moose said:
bobbymike said:
www.defensenews.com

US Air Force eyes NGAD deliveries by 2030. Can it be done?

"The odds are against it happening" by 2030, John Venable of the Heritage Foundation said. "In the last 25 or 30 years, nothing’s come in on time.”
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com
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B-21 is bucking that trend, if properly run NGAD may be able to as well.
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But isn´t B-21 designed with/ based on 'available and already mature technologies' to suppress cost & development time, while NGAD-manned is supposed to be a bigger quantum leap?
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In my opinion, I think the key to getting USAF NGAD/USN F/A-XX fielded rapidly is a single prime with no teammates, example, NGC B-21, moving along well, NGC only. B-2 example, Northrop/Boeing, just OK relationship (Boeing always thought they should have been the prime), had hassles, Northrop/LTV, pretty good relationship. This is from experience. This is somewhat related to US NGAD and I apologize for stating this in this thread, UK/Japan Tempest/F-X combo, I don't know? Personally, I think both should go it alone, just my opinion.
 
Dreamfighter said:
Moose said:
bobbymike said:
www.defensenews.com

US Air Force eyes NGAD deliveries by 2030. Can it be done?

"The odds are against it happening" by 2030, John Venable of the Heritage Foundation said. "In the last 25 or 30 years, nothing’s come in on time.”
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com
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B-21 is bucking that trend, if properly run NGAD may be able to as well.
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But isn´t B-21 designed with/ based on 'available and already mature technologies' to suppress cost & development time, while NGAD-manned is supposed to be a bigger quantum leap?
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Proper planning, proper management. You can have "affordable" programs slip to the right if they're poorly managed. I don't haave enough information on where NGAD is or what it's requirements are to make an educated guess as to whether starting deliveries by 2030 is possible, but the "nothing's come in on time" comment fails to reflect that B-21's being well managed (so far).
 
The noises coming out of the NGAD program so far are rather positive, but it is early in the cycle and we have little hard facts. I think a pre 2030 production copy is quite possible, though I wouldn't necessarily say likely.
 
breakingdefense.com

Pentagon inspector general has questions about the Air Force's sixth-gen fighter - Breaking Defense

The Pentagon's inspector general wants to look into whether the Next Generation Air Dominance program was mature enough to enter the engineering and manufacturing development phase. However, the program may have never officially entered EMD.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
When Inspector Generals are mentioned I always think of this A Few Good Men scene.

Jessep: You ever served in an infantry unit son?
Kaffee: No Sir.
Jessep: You ever served in a forward area unit?
Kaffee: No Sir.
Jessep: You ever put your life in another mans hands, and in return, asked him to put his life in yours?
Kaffee: No Sir.
Jessep: We follow orders, we follow orders or people die, it’s that simple. Are we clear?
Kaffee: Yes, Sir.
Jessep: Are we clear!
Kaffee: Crystal.
 
sferrin said:
Josh_TN said:
The noises coming out of the NGAD program so far are rather positive, but it is early in the cycle and we have little hard facts. I think a pre 2030 production copy is quite possible, though I wouldn't necessarily say likely.
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Hopefully it's not 16 years between the "YF-" and the "F-".
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If it is there are going to be a lot of drones in the family of systems gathering dust. 2030 will be 2030. For the drones like I said in my earlier post....
 
sferrin said:
Josh_TN said:
The noises coming out of the NGAD program so far are rather positive, but it is early in the cycle and we have little hard facts. I think a pre 2030 production copy is quite possible, though I wouldn't necessarily say likely.
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Hopefully it's not 16 years between the "YF-" and the "F-".
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I don't think that it is going to be 16 years sferrin, the USAF would like to be the first Air Force in the world to have a fully operational sixth generation fighter. Just as it was with the fifth generation F-22.
 
rooster said:
sferrin said:
Josh_TN said:
The noises coming out of the NGAD program so far are rather positive, but it is early in the cycle and we have little hard facts. I think a pre 2030 production copy is quite possible, though I wouldn't necessarily say likely.
Click to expand...
Hopefully it's not 16 years between the "YF-" and the "F-".
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If it is there are going to be a lot of drones in the family of systems gathering dust. 2030 will be 2030. For the drones like I said in my earlier post....
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What I read/hear is the unmanned collaborative things should initially be flying alongside e.g. F-35s (and I guess alongside B-21s as well).
And maybe some of them will be designed to be able to withstand gathering dust, for when there is no war (or military operation) going on...
 

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