Register here

Author Topic: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet  (Read 3135 times)

Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2017, 01:23:55 am »

Like problem with overpriced spare part (like Self-locking Nut for 29019 euro PER PIECE)


Evidence?
First reported by german politicians magazine "Der Spiegel" in 2015
German Stern in 2017
http://www.stern.de/digital/technik/eurofighter-streit--nach-bestechungen-hat-oesterreich-genug-7347298.html
and Austrian "Die Kröne Zeitung" in 2017
http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/wie-frech-die-firma-eurofighter-abkassierte-geheimakten-zeigen-story-555977
All links in German language

I put the separate discussion on Austrian Eurofighter here
http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,28693.0.html

Back to Topic
Now i found the Flemish article about Boeing refusal in April 2017
Boeing short answer translated back into English

Quote
"After studying the question, we regret that we do not see the opportunity to compete with the extremely capable and cost-effective F / A-18 Super Hornet on a truly equal competition"

"This decision allows Boeing to focus its efforts and resources on supporting our customers worldwide, collecting new orders and investing in technology and systems needed to address current and future threats," ..."where there is a complete and open competition."

Seem the Belgium politicians were playing there old game
"Who much are willing to pay a "contribution" for me and my political Party ?"
or worst
"We want a package Deal with this and that, other wise..."
I love Strange Technology

Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2017, 03:36:10 am »
News according this article in Flemish
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2017/09/07/3-kandidaten-voor-nieuwe-belgische-gevechtsvliegtuigen/

Is down to Three Candidates.

F-35A
One of the Reason for Belgium to buy them,
They can better cooperate with Netherlands Air-force, that also orders the F-35.
biggest problem the F-35 program has allot delays

Rafale
One of the Reason for Belgium to buy them, is lower price
but they need then to cooperate with French Air-force.
What is for moment not the case.

Eurofighter Tycoon
Interesting is that Belgium insist to buy Tycoons from British production and not from German production.

the Manufacture companies have time to february 2018
to send offers to Belgium Government and end of 2018 they proclaim the winner.

The Article give new inside why Boeing and Saab dropped out competition.
Boeing F-18 was consider to old hardware by Belgium air-force (and by Boeing too ?)

Saab Gripen was consider Ideal for job, but Swedish Government hat some issue
with Belgium proposal for cooperation with Swedish Air-force.
because Belgium is member of NATO and has Nuclear weapons in stock.
while Sweden is a Neutral Nation.
I love Strange Technology

Offline Machdiamond

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 316
    • LVBD Design
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2017, 06:46:52 am »
The Tycoon sounds like the most expensive choice.

Offline CiTrus90

  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 340
  • Credibility is down! Kill ratio is up!
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2017, 07:08:39 am »
The Tycoon sounds like the most expensive choice.



;D
Regards.

L. Landino

Offline Hood

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 768
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2017, 05:18:29 am »
Sounds like its down to two contenders, Typhoon and the F-35.
The French Rafale offer seems to amount to little more a than a letter from the French armed forces minister Florence Parly.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/belgium-seeks-clarity-over-french-bid-for-fighter-de-440970/

Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2017, 05:57:24 am »
 
Sounds like its down to two contenders, Typhoon and the F-35.
The French Rafale offer seems to amount to little more a than a letter from the French armed forces minister Florence Parly.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/belgium-seeks-clarity-over-french-bid-for-fighter-de-440970/

Oh Bloody Hell...
Belgium Politic the hard way:

The Current Belgium Minister of defense  is Steven Vandeput
Who is Flemish and member of political party N-VA (New Flemish Alliance)
N-VA strives for the peaceful and gradual secession of Flanders from Belgium.

The current plans for Belgium air-force close cooperation with Netherlands Air-force make sense
since Flemish and the Netherlands speak Dutch

Now the French offer for collaboration with Belgium Air-force, could be problem for N-VA Party
because they speak french, like there political enemy the Belgium Walloons!

I bet, if there is a Flemish Minister of defense until end of 2018, The french are out of the deal !
But during current political turmoil in Belgium, it will be hell of a local elections in 2018...

I love Strange Technology

Offline Dreamfighter

  • CLEARANCE: Confidential
  • *
  • Posts: 146
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2017, 03:29:55 pm »
Oh Bloody Hell...
Belgium Politic the hard way:

The Current Belgium Minister of defense  is Steven Vandeput
Who is Flemish and member of political party N-VA (New Flemish Alliance)
N-VA strives for the peaceful and gradual secession of Flanders from Belgium.

The current plans for Belgium air-force close cooperation with Netherlands Air-force make sense
since Flemish and the Netherlands speak Dutch

Now the French offer for collaboration with Belgium Air-force, could be problem for N-VA Party
because they speak french, like there political enemy the Belgium Walloons!

I bet, if there is a Flemish Minister of defense until end of 2018, The french are out of the deal !
But during current political turmoil in Belgium, it will be hell of a local elections in 2018...

I think the most likely choice will be F-35, indeed because of the established cooperation with the Netherlands, and so for compatability with US equipment (that is not only in use in Belgium and the Netherlands, but also f.e. with the airforces of Norway and Denmark).

If we were still in the 1970s/80s and the regional Walloon socialist party would still be a major player in the Federal Government, Rafale would have a bigger chance of winning the contract then as in present circumstances. Remember f.e. Mirage-5 ;)
That today the Federal Defense Minister is from the Dutch-speaking Flanders region and belongs to the confederalistic NVA party will imo not be of great influence on the (final) downselect. Downselect most probably just between F-35 and EF-2000, as the French Government´s Rafale "proposal" (just a letter saying "hey let´s collaborate"!) did not follow the RFP-guidelines/procedures.

Btw, I hope Walloons do not (all) regard (all) Flemish as separatists or opponents. Belgian fries taste juste the same in Flanders, Brussels and in Wallonia. Beste groeten / Cordialement   ;)

Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2017, 08:57:39 pm »

If we were still in the 1970s/80s and the regional Walloon socialist party would still be a major player in the Federal Government, Rafale would have a bigger chance of winning the contract then as in present circumstances. Remember f.e. Mirage-5 ;)

Btw, I hope Walloons do not (all) regard (all) Flemish as separatists or opponents. Belgian fries taste juste the same in Flanders, Brussels and in Wallonia. Beste groeten / Cordialement   ;)

For those who not understand
the Belgium socialist party is more of a Crime syndicate instead of political party
With allot of Corruption, special in military contracts see Mirage 5 , F-16 and Augusta Helicopters
finally in 1995 it erupted in biggest scandal in Belgium history, as it became public.
from here the Socialist went in separate way Flemish and Walloons
but in 2017 guess what ?

A big corruption scandal in Belgium with Flemish and Walloons Socialist.
to top that the Socialist Mayor of Brussels was caught on embezzlement
from a Help organization that support the poorest and homeless of Brussels

a Socialist that steal from the poorest and homeless ?!

This let to major political crisis in Walloon as christian democrats terminate there coalition with socialist.
and Walloon and Brussel were without federal government and allot to towns lost there Mayor.
for the moment is new coalition Government of christian democrats with Liberals
in a survey in Belgium reached the Socialist only 2%
while the Walloons Communist reach new record high of 39%
and to make matter worst for the Socialist, next year is election in Belgium !

Let the Carnage beginn...
I love Strange Technology

Offline NeilChapman

  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ***
  • Posts: 703
  • Interested 3rd party
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2017, 06:33:08 pm »

If we were still in the 1970s/80s and the regional Walloon socialist party would still be a major player in the Federal Government, Rafale would have a bigger chance of winning the contract then as in present circumstances. Remember f.e. Mirage-5 ;)

Btw, I hope Walloons do not (all) regard (all) Flemish as separatists or opponents. Belgian fries taste juste the same in Flanders, Brussels and in Wallonia. Beste groeten / Cordialement   ;)


For those who not understand
the Belgium socialist party is more of a Crime syndicate instead of political party
With allot of Corruption, special in military contracts see Mirage 5 , F-16 and Augusta Helicopters
finally in 1995 it erupted in biggest scandal in Belgium history, as it became public.
from here the Socialist went in separate way Flemish and Walloons
but in 2017 guess what ?

A big corruption scandal in Belgium with Flemish and Walloons Socialist.
to top that the Socialist Mayor of Brussels was caught on embezzlement
from a Help organization that support the poorest and homeless of Brussels

a Socialist that steal from the poorest and homeless ?!

This let to major political crisis in Walloon as christian democrats terminate there coalition with socialist.
and Walloon and Brussel were without federal government and allot to towns lost there Mayor.
for the moment is new coalition Government of christian democrats with Liberals
in a survey in Belgium reached the Socialist only 2%
while the Walloons Communist reach new record high of 39%
and to make matter worst for the Socialist, next year is election in Belgium !

Let the Carnage beginn...



Good Lord!

And people get upset with US politics. 

In the next peer to peer war the Rafale may not be a 74M coffin but would I want to put my sons and daughters in one when the Americans, Brits, Danish, Dutch, Israelis, Italians, Norwegians and gosh knows who else are all flying 35's?  You'll basically have to be protected by everybody else.

If you land in Norway, who's going to fix or service your Rafale?  If you land in Poland who's going to fix or service your Rafale?  If you have to land in Britain or the Netherlands who's going to fix or service your Rafale?  The only place in Europe you can land is at home or France.

It's not a matter of the threats today, it's understanding how the A2/AD threat will modify to meet 5th gen and newer systems. 

How about this.  If they purchase the F-35 they get THE latest production aircraft, world wide support, engine upgrades in the pipeline as well as mission systems upgrades for 30+ years for 80M with development costs spread over 2000 airframes with 230+ already built and a production ramp up to 15-20 per month.  The front line US fighter.

Or they can get the Rafale, a 30 yo design which has had ~200 built over the last 20 years for 74M.

hmmm.  Tough decision?




Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2017, 08:50:44 pm »
NeilChapman, you got a point here

At 100 Anniversary of Belgium Air-force with Air Show
The German Luftwaffe send a Eurofigher to the show 
Only to be grounded  do technical problems during flight to airfield
And they not could fix or service it on Belgium airfield

it that reason the Belgians want British Eurofighters and not german build ?
I love Strange Technology

Offline mrmalaya

  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 198
  • Consider it done.
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2017, 01:32:27 am »
There is a distinct difference between RAF operating experience and Luftwaffe operating experience when it comes to Typhoon. Whilst it is most likely that BAE are selling Typhoon due to  pre-existing internal agreement between the partners (as has happened in all other competitions), they are able to talk about the reduced operating costs, operational experience and future developments in a way that no other partners can.

Also, Typhoon allows Belgian pilots to land at plenty of close airfields and get Typhoon loving (to carry on with NeilChapman's point)

Offline Michel Van

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 3708
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2017, 04:33:03 am »
There is a distinct difference between RAF operating experience and Luftwaffe operating experience when it comes to Typhoon. Whilst it is most likely that BAE are selling Typhoon due to  pre-existing internal agreement between the partners (as has happened in all other competitions), they are able to talk about the reduced operating costs, operational experience and future developments in a way that no other partners can.

Also, Typhoon allows Belgian pilots to land at plenty of close airfields and get Typhoon loving (to carry on with NeilChapman's point)

So far i could see on that particular Typhoon on Belgium Air-force with Air Show
The problem was at Auxiliary power unit and allot of soot came out exhaust blacking the flank of The Fighter.
off course this could be the normal technical problems you have with Airplane
but for odd reason seems the German build Typhoon to have some technicals issues

newest problem (next to corruption charges and bamboozlement with overpriced spare parts)
wrong holes in fuselage (for moment those aircraft are restricted to to keep under 6 gees in combat exercise)
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-finds-new-problems-with-eurofighter-jets/a-18779651
good analysis on problem
http://www.jameshasik.com/weblog/2014/11/is-something-wrong-with-the-eurofighter-or-just-the-air-forces-flying-it.html

Looking at German, Austrian and Spain Air-force have most problem with Typhoon
The one with less Typhoon problems are RAF in Britain
Can be the fact that those three run there Air-force on ridicule shoe-string-budget level
Could play a important role in this story ?


But it seem that Typhoon could fall out the competitions
if this article is right BAE system want to close it Typhoon production in 2019
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/feature/5/177740/eurofighter-four-face-hard-decisions-on-production%2C-damages-as-orders-run-out.html

And Belgium politic make decision only at end of 2018
but that more chaotic as quantum physic and realistic that they delay the decision...
do 2018 election and  highly complex government formation (current record 541 days)
so it can be, that in end only two candidates remain F-35 and Rafale
Worst case scenario some Belgum politician comes on this hair raising Idea:
"Let keep the F-16 flying until new French/German Fighter is ready"

it would not wonder me...
I love Strange Technology

Offline mrmalaya

  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 198
  • Consider it done.
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2017, 07:02:52 am »
I'm sure you have a better understanding of what is more likely in Belgium, but Defense-Aerospace.com is notorious for it's editorial bias (I won't say pro-Rafale as such, but certainly against Rafale's competitors).

Here is a very recent article by the same editor. See if you can spot how many times it makes mention of Typhoon being in the competition that Rafale has pulled out of:

 http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/feature/5/186610/belgian-fighter-competition%3A-three-down%2C-two-to-go%3F.html

It is a key point that Italy and the UK have faith in their Typhoons and have both closed export deals as a consequence.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2017, 07:12:03 am by mrmalaya »

Offline gTg

  • CLEARANCE: Confidential
  • *
  • Posts: 81
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2017, 07:36:04 am »
I'm not sure if all the Belgium specific political talk is good for this thread.
Maybe better to just keep the talk to the contenders of this (bogus) selection.

In my eyes the F-35 will "win"... anything else would be suspicious.

Only thing that matters to me is: how much will these planes cost us in the end? Belgium is not a partner country, so i do not expect a good price. And for our US friends, please stop with 80M unit price fairy tales, you can be happy if the US gets them at this price.   


Offline NeilChapman

  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ***
  • Posts: 703
  • Interested 3rd party
Re: Belgium's quest to replace their F-16 fleet
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2017, 12:50:59 pm »
I'm not sure if all the Belgium specific political talk is good for this thread.
Maybe better to just keep the talk to the contenders of this (bogus) selection.

In my eyes the F-35 will "win"... anything else would be suspicious.

Only thing that matters to me is: how much will these planes cost us in the end? Belgium is not a partner country, so i do not expect a good price. And for our US friends, please stop with 80M unit price fairy tales, you can be happy if the US gets them at this price.   

Well...

There is a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) price.  That price is the going rate for the expected LRIP block or FRP lot within "your" jet is built.  For instance, the last batch contracted was LRIP 10 where he A model was US$94.6M, ~7.5% less than LRIP 9.  We can expect the LRIP 11 (October 2017?) to be another 6-7% less or ~$88-90M.  LRIP 12 will also drop another 6-7% which gets you to ~$82M.  That's pretty close to ~$80M, no?

AFAIK the Level 1-3 partners received not special pricing but manufacturing, subcontracting, maintenance facility rights etc. i.e jobs.

No one will "get them" at that price, not even the US, because no-one will purchase "only" the airframe bundle.  They will purchase the airframe, spare engines, training systems, etc. etc., etc. and the price will be higher.  But the airframe, engines, avionics etc bundle will be ~$80M once the jet reaches Full Rate Production in 2019 or 2020.  It's not worth quibbling about ~$2M either way since there is no other jet in the world that can touch the F-35's value for anywhere near that price point.

The price is the price and it's pretty darn low based on the value.