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Author Topic: SpaceX (general discussion)  (Read 191262 times)

Offline sferrin

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1170 on: June 12, 2018, 05:48:17 pm »
Well they aren't flying the thing in 2019 for damn sure.
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline seruriermarshal

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1171 on: June 12, 2018, 05:51:35 pm »
 ;D

Offline FighterJock

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1172 on: June 13, 2018, 06:39:30 am »
;D

Is that really a section of the BFR? Or is it really a section for the Falcon Heavy?

Offline TomS

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1173 on: June 13, 2018, 06:45:53 am »
Is that really a section of the BFR? Or is it really a section for the Falcon Heavy?

Neither.  It's a mandrel (a piece of tooling) for making large carbon fiber segments of the BFR fuselage.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/spacex-appears-ready-to-spin-carbon-fiber-for-the-bfr-spaceship/

Falcon Heavy boosters are the same size as Falcon 9, just with three boosters strapped together.




Offline FighterJock

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1174 on: June 13, 2018, 06:47:31 am »
Is that really a section of the BFR? Or is it really a section for the Falcon Heavy?

Neither.  It's a mandrel (a piece of tooling) for making large carbon fiber segments of the BFR fuselage.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/spacex-appears-ready-to-spin-carbon-fiber-for-the-bfr-spaceship/

Falcon Heavy boosters are the same size as Falcon 9, just with three boosters strapped together.

Thanks for that quick reply TomS, that photo had me confused.

Offline martinbayer

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1175 on: June 13, 2018, 06:49:04 am »
;D

Is that really a section of the BFR? Or is it really a section for the Falcon Heavy?

Falcon heavy core diameter is 12 feet. Compare that to the size of the car.

Martin
Would be marching to the beat of his own drum, if he didn't detest marching to any drumbeat at all so much.

Offline Moose

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1176 on: June 13, 2018, 04:38:23 pm »
Well they aren't flying the thing in 2019 for damn sure.
The most recent update was that they hope in 2019 to fly a pre-production version of the upper stage/spacecraft in a similar manner to the Grashopper test vehicle for Falcon 9's first stage.

Offline antigravite

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1177 on: June 14, 2018, 02:13:42 pm »
Well they aren't flying the thing in 2019 for damn sure.
The most recent update was that they hope in 2019 to fly a pre-production version of the upper stage/spacecraft in a similar manner to the Grashopper test vehicle for Falcon 9's first stage.

That SpaceX opened a BFR position means the program is on track and expands. Internal BFR positions were created a few years back with an army of hundreds of engineers working on this project, scaled up after Falcon Heavy became successful. The big rocket race currently underway (competition against Blue Origin) means accelerating and scaling this up. We'll be positively surprised.

A.
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Offline FighterJock

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1178 on: June 15, 2018, 08:53:05 am »
Well they aren't flying the thing in 2019 for damn sure.
The most recent update was that they hope in 2019 to fly a pre-production version of the upper stage/spacecraft in a similar manner to the Grashopper test vehicle for Falcon 9's first stage.

That SpaceX opened a BFR position means the program is on track and expands. Internal BFR positions were created a few years back with an army of hundreds of engineers working on this project, scaled up after Falcon Heavy became successful. The big rocket race currently underway (competition against Blue Origin) means accelerating and scaling this up. We'll be positively surprised.

A.

I will be highly surprised if this whole big rocket thing (New Glenn/BFR) succeeds or not, they are up against NASA with the just as big Space Launch System.

Offline fredymac

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1179 on: June 15, 2018, 09:03:33 am »

I will be highly surprised if this whole big rocket thing (New Glenn/BFR) succeeds or not, they are up against NASA with the just as big Space Launch System.


You are forgetting about cost.  The SLS has exactly 1 customer that can think about using it and only if the political backing can be maintained.

Offline sferrin

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1180 on: June 15, 2018, 09:22:49 am »
Well they aren't flying the thing in 2019 for damn sure.
The most recent update was that they hope in 2019 to fly a pre-production version of the upper stage/spacecraft in a similar manner to the Grashopper test vehicle for Falcon 9's first stage.

That SpaceX opened a BFR position means the program is on track and expands. Internal BFR positions were created a few years back with an army of hundreds of engineers working on this project, scaled up after Falcon Heavy became successful. The big rocket race currently underway (competition against Blue Origin) means accelerating and scaling this up. We'll be positively surprised.

A.

I will be highly surprised if this whole big rocket thing (New Glenn/BFR) succeeds or not, they are up against NASA with the just as big Space Launch System.

I'd give BFR and New Glenn/New Armstrong greater chances of long term success than SLS.  How many times will they fly SLS?  Three?  You really think they're going to want to pony up billions when they could throw the payload on a BFR at a fraction of the cost?
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Online Tuna

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1181 on: June 15, 2018, 10:14:12 am »

I will be highly surprised if this whole big rocket thing (New Glenn/BFR) succeeds or not, they are up against NASA with the just as big Space Launch System.

SLS is not a competitor, costing >$1B per launch and not being reusable at all. It's kind of a white elephant.

Offline FighterJock

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1182 on: June 15, 2018, 10:47:19 am »
You are all forgetting about the Block 2 130 tonne variant of the Space Launch System which when built could easily launch a future Uranus/Neptune space probe in a faster trajectory than existing rockets, whereas the BFR is only concerned about landing on Mars.

Offline TomS

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1183 on: June 15, 2018, 12:23:34 pm »
You are all forgetting about the Block 2 130 tonne variant of the Space Launch System which when built could easily launch a future Uranus/Neptune space probe in a faster trajectory than existing rockets, whereas the BFR is only concerned about landing on Mars.

Not forgetting about it, but discounting it as a threat to BFR/New Glenn.

Yes, SLS is better optimized for heavy outer-system launches.  But that's a tiny fraction of the SpaceX or Blue Origin target market -- at most a launch every few years, when the commercial launchers are looking at tempos of 30+ per year. 

BFR is not actually intended just for Mars (that was the older Mars Colonial Transporter or Interplanetary Transport System concepts, which have been dropped in favor of BFR).  BFR is intended to completely replace Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy with a totally reusable launcher to place large single payloads in GTO or large numbers of smaller payloads to LEO (for example).*  That's where their money will be made, and SLS is never, ever going to be a credible player in that market. 


* Or even a point-to-point transport on Earth, though I really doubt the economics on that one
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 12:33:16 pm by TomS »

Online Tuna

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Re: SpaceX (general discussion)
« Reply #1184 on: June 15, 2018, 03:23:26 pm »
And if BFR/New Glenn actually succeeds in that market, the economics mean that it will be very hard to justify the use of SLS for any mission, including the ones where it has an edge.

Right now, SLS is either a bet that both BFR and New Glenn completely fail, or a jobs project. You pick.