Sukhoi Su-57 / T-50 / PAK FA - flight testing and development Part II [2012-current]

[stealthflanker]

trying to get some Kh-69 practices i guess.

 

[QuadroFX]

trying to get some Kh-69 practices i guess.

You mean Kh-59M2 i guess?

It seems to me more useful to work out using of 9-А-7759.

 

[Ainen]

trying to get some Kh-69 practices i guess.

You mean Kh-59M2 i guess?

It seems to me more useful to work out using of 9-А-7759.

It isn't a su-57-specific weapon system, though.

 

[stealthflanker]

trying to get some Kh-69 practices i guess.

You mean Kh-59M2 i guess?

It seems to me more useful to work out using of 9-А-7759.

Yes, it got new designation as Kh-69 as 59MK2 is already used for a radar guided version of earlier Kh-59 Ovod missile.

 

[Acatomic]

Looking at Sukhoi LTS I wonder if any future upgrade of Su-57 would lose elevators. Basically the back would be the same as in LTS just with two engines.

 

[sanjeev.k]

Looking at Sukhoi LTS I wonder if any future upgrade of Su-57 would lose elevators. Basically the back would be the same as in LTS just with two engines.

I had a slightly different thought on this - what if the paka lost the 2 vertical fins, but had ‘inclined elevators’(at a non zero angle to horizontal). So in effect becoming like ‘ruddervators’ or ‘elevons’. Combined with 3d thrust vectoring. Just like that F-15 MANX proposal of 1996.
Those vertical fins are very small anyway, so Sukhoi probably intended to remove them entirely in the long run ( unless they wanted to go fully tailless)

 

[flanker]

@Vanessa1402

He means this line

View attachment 678007

I am late, but yes, exactly that line.

 

[QuadroFX]

Another two new planes. #53 and 54 "red"

thanks NskPlanes for photos

 

[QuadroFX]

#53 and 54 "red"

(с)Boris Semenov

 

[Alifzero]

So its 7 Su-57s or 5 that already delivered?

 

[Archibald]

What a beautiful and impressive plane, really.

 

[QuadroFX]

So its 7 Su-57s or 5 that already delivered?

It makes no sense to count them while there are so few of them.

 

[icyplanetnhc (Steve)]

Wasn't the production plan when the contract for 76 aircraft was signed to deliver 4 in 2021 and 12 this year?

EDIT: Apparently the 12 aircraft to be delivered in 2022 was how Russian newspapers interpreted a statement from Yury Slyusar last year that 4 were to be delivered in 2021, with a production goal of 12 per year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415692782937772037

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1415692782937772037?s=20&t=_IBgNWYSnH7zmXK_yWzawQ

 

[Alifzero]

So its 7 Su-57s or 5 that already delivered?

It makes no sense to count them while there are so few of them.

Well, i just try to confirm what i know.
From photo evidence, we know Russia got 5 serial production. But if post #2493 true, with this new delivery, they have 7.

Also, i heard that one of the prototype (allegedly T-50-11) is delivered to RuAF as replacement of the crashed first serial production. I guess is not true, but i like if there is some confirmation.

 

[LMFS]

Wasn't the production plan when the contract for 76 aircraft was signed to deliver 4 in 2021 and 12 this year?

From what I recall, based on the production plan we saw during a MoD visit to KnAAZ, that was 4 last year, 4 this one, 7 in 2023 and 12 in 2024. But then we heard that they expected to have 22 units by 2024, which does not really add up with those numbers, I personally doubt they will bother rising the production to 1 sqd per year just before they switch to the second stage standard, so maybe the production by 2024 remains by 6-7 units like in 2023. BTW there were rumours that the early deliveries this year were delayed units from 2021, but we don't really know when they were delivered to the VKS. Any analysis of the past or future production remains highly speculative by now.

 

[Josh_TN]

Sanctions might also slow the program down. Su-57 I'm sure is as locally sourced as possible but it likely still is dependent on foreign chips to some degree.

 

[paralay]

Production plan:

2019-1
2020-1
2021-4
2022-4
2023-7
2024-12
2025-16 (?)
2026-16 (?)
2027-16 (?)

total: 77

 

[LMFS]

Production plan:

2019-1
2020-1
2021-4
2022-4
2023-7
2024-12
2025-16 (?)
2026-16 (?)
2027-16 (?)

total: 77

I have checked it and it was reportedly Shoigu who stated 22 units for 2024, so I guess that is as official as it gets. That leaves 54 units to be produced until 2028 or 13-14 units per year in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. That is probably the baseline production capacity of KnAAZ intended for the future, so if the line keeps open say 10 years more they would reach ca. 200-250 Su-57 in operation until 2040. Current situation may advise to change those plans and increase quantities, maybe.

 

[paralay]

,

 

[gral_rj]

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

360 LTS or thereabouts makes sense, given what little I remember of current VVS numbers, but I thought they would have aimed for more Su-57s

 

[stealthflanker]

Sanctions might also slow the program down. Su-57 I'm sure is as locally sourced as possible but it likely still is dependent on foreign chips to some degree.

yeah, the concern is the processor used in the mission computer. It made in TSMC but per-wiki, there is limited production of the chip in Russia.

 

[LMFS]

Sanctions might also slow the program down. Su-57 I'm sure is as locally sourced as possible but it likely still is dependent on foreign chips to some degree.

yeah, the concern is the processor used in the mission computer. It made in TSMC but per-wiki, there is limited production of the chip in Russia.

It is not as if they needed thousands of pieces, and MoD is extremely careful with foreign sourcing for any defence components, much more for critical programs like the PAK-FA. I find it questionable to assume that they did not source 100 or 200 chips before starting the SMO, if those were critical parts that would previsibly fall under sanctions. Are those chips Elbrus? If so, production is being set up in Russia too...

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

Russia needs to cover the Northern Sea Route, plus substantially increase the density of their air forces throughout the territory, all but the Western/Southern MDs are missing a lot of equipment. Actual numbers therefore can be misleading IMHO to assess potential buys, and they are already substantially more than the sum of those numbers you indicate. In the long run 3th, 4th and 4+ gens will be substituted, that makes more than 1000 planes between different types of fighters / interceptors (ca. 700) and bombers (ca. 250), excluding the Su-25. So 250 Su-57, 500 LTS and 300-400 (or even more) Okhotnik would look about ok to me, but we will see. In any case I think in the future VKS numbers will rather increase than be reduced.

 

[Deino]

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

Are you still sure considering the current political & economic situation?

 

[BAROBA]

Sanctions might also slow the program down. Su-57 I'm sure is as locally sourced as possible but it likely still is dependent on foreign chips to some degree.

yeah, the concern is the processor used in the mission computer. It made in TSMC but per-wiki, there is limited production of the chip in Russia.

If we can believe the reports coming out of Ukraine on the Russian ground-weapons, then pretty much everything they use is western or Taiwanese..
From engines to micro-chips... Pretty much the only thing Russian are be the frames.
With aircraft it is a bit different because they can build engines and other important parts. But how much of it still contains western stuff?
The Chinese can help them out with certain parts, but not with everything (yet)

 

[paralay]

,

 

[Scar]

I predict the accent will be leaning towards LTS. So these 70+ Su-57 is all what RuAF will get, in the current and upcoming economic reality. My prediction there will be a total order for 150-200 LTS, 70-80 PAK FA and 80-100 S-70. The total number of RuAF will be shrinking, eventually.

 

[Deino]

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

Are you still sure considering the current political & economic situation?

Do you mean famine in Europe and the collapse of the United States into separate states?
In this regard, the Russians do not need planes at all

I think we should avoid any biased political excourses, and I'm pretty sure no-one will die in Europe due to famine in the same way the US won't collapse into seperate states, but I think it is pretty obvious that Russia - already late and troubled with its projects - will not be stronger after the war.

 

[LMFS]

I predict the accent will be leaning towards LTS. So these 70+ Su-57 is all what RuAF will get, in the current and upcoming economic reality. My prediction there will be a total order for 150-200 LTS, 70-80 PAK FA and 80-100 S-70. The total number of RuAF will be shrinking, eventually.

It goes beyond my logic how the current commodity bonanza is interpreted as hardship... have you taken a look at the current trade balance of Russia?

If we can believe the reports coming out of Ukraine on the Russian ground-weapons, then pretty much everything they use is western or Taiwanese..
From engines to micro-chips... Pretty much the only thing Russian are be the frames.
With aircraft it is a bit different because they can build engines and other important parts. But how much of it still contains western stuff?
The Chinese can help them out with certain parts, but not with everything (yet)

I recommend you to document yourself properly, that could not be further from the truth...

I think we should avoid any biased political excourses, and I'm pretty sure so-one will die in Europe due to famine in the same way the US won't collapse into seperate states, but I think it si pretty obvious that Russia - already late and troubled with its projects - will not be stronger after the war.

Fully agree not to get into politics more than strictly justificed and specially into confrontational stances. The case is that increasing their military forces is a clear requirement for all sides right now, and in Russia it has already been said that military budget will be raised, import substitution reinforced, MIC will ramp up production to cover for material spent in the SMO and essentially in the current situation MOD has the upper hand as never before and will get the money they deem necessary to defend the country. You can check the plans for infrastructure and industrial basis expenses, they are huge. Another example is Helicopters of Russia, which plans to double production for this year, enterprises working on three shifts, all mayor manufacturers hiring big time. It is wartime re-industrialization effort now, basically.

 

[Trident]

It goes beyond my logic how the current commodity bonanza is interpreted as hardship... have you taken a look at the current trade balance of Russia?

If your imports collapse because a large fraction of your major trade partners all but severs ties, achieving a net export surplus is trivial. GDP as a measure of overall economic activity is predicted to contract by some 10% this year alone, by contrast. For perspective, that would be three times the impact on Russia as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

 

[Geo]

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

Are you still sure considering the current political & economic situation?

Do you mean famine in Europe and the collapse of the United States into separate states?
In this regard, the Russians do not need planes at all

I do not know the real situation in Russia. Paralay maybe knows it. Famine is not on the horizon here in Central Europe, but it is true that low-income groups already have a HUGE, existential problem. And this problem is slowly growing into the middle class. Unfortunately it's true.

 

[Deino]

I believe 127 Su-57, 360 LTS and 72 S-70 will be built

Are you still sure considering the current political & economic situation?

Do you mean famine in Europe and the collapse of the United States into separate states?
In this regard, the Russians do not need planes at all

I do not know the real situation in Russia. Paralay maybe knows it. Famine is not on the horizon here in Central Europe, but it is true that low-income groups already have a HUGE, existential problem. And this problem is slowly growing into the middle class. Unfortunately it's true.

Again, I don't deny issues and alone an 8% inflation is a huge burden. But I cannot think that in Russia the situation is flourishing right now while at the same time there will be a famine nor a political breakup up the US:

 

[paralay]

,

 

[kaiserd]

The nature of some of the more general comments above would put the credibility and reliability of the accompanying more specific comments about the apparently rude health Su-57 and other Russian aerospace projects into some context.

 

[Scar]

It goes beyond my logic how the current commodity bonanza is interpreted as hardship... have you taken a look at the current trade balance of Russia?

Do you realise i live in Russia and my country's economy will face a huge recession this year? -8,8% GDP decrease, according to the government, which forecasts, traditionally...well...are too optimistic. And stagnation, at best, in the forthcoming years. Not speaking about political and technological risks, which already affected our economy and MIC/Aerospace and the situation in both could get even worse in the future.

 

[GTX]

 

[stealthflanker]

The "Big thing" i would expect from Izd-30 powered Su-57 or LTS in the future is rearward RCS suppression by application of some form of blocker within the engine. But seems no news so far on Izd-30 progress.

 

[kaiserbill]

But seems no news so far on Izd-30 progress.

Reporting on Russian weapons development in general has been massively scaled back.
Which is expected, considering the current events.
It's clear this is deliberate.

 

[Ronny]

Back on topic, can someone tell me, what is that pyramid shape thingy under Su-57 nose?
Sometime it is alone, sometime it is next to the DIRCM turret. What is it?

 

[QuadroFX]

On a first and second photo there is a TV-camera similar to the one installed on the S-70(Su-57-053 prototype is a flying lab used in the S-70 program). On a third photo there is a 101KS-U02 electro-optical sensor.

 

[Ronny]

On a first and second photo there is a TV-camera similar to the one installed on the S-70(Su-57-053 prototype is a flying lab used in the S-70 program). On a third photo there is a 101KS-U02 electro-optical sensor.

So that TV camera won't be used in production version of Su-57?