France-Germany-Spain Future Combat Air System (FCAS/SCAF/FSAC)

[Scott Kenny]

I wonder why they are talking about SCAF being snuffed out. On the contrary I think it would make enormous sense for France to go at it alone. There's a host of nations who have a desire to be free of US export controls, who have traditionally bought French, and due to recent geopolitical events, this list has began to expand. I think the extra burdens of having to develop a fighter alone might be more than made up with the increased export potential, as France has become the first choice supplier of aircraft for anyone who doesn't want to buy American.

And it doesn't help that the Gripen is more expensive than a Block 50 F-16. Which basically leaves FA-50s or other armed LIFT for your choices.

 

[timmymagic]

Own the Airbus Spain subsidiary (formerly CASA) resulting in a larger financial industrial share of the project than the French when Spain joined. French dont like not being the majority in a project.

Indra is the Spanish Prime on SCAF. Not sure how much involvement Airbus Spain will actually get..

 

[Ainen]

And it doesn't help that the Gripen is more expensive than a Block 50 F-16. Which basically leaves FA-50s or other armed LIFT for your choices.

Gripen doesn't count here, it is completely under US/UK export controls umbrella.
So is the FA-50 ... plus it doesn't even pretend to be a fully capable fighter.

 

[WatcherZero]

Dassault's Eric Trappier continuing to be the promoter of unity, following up his March comments with fresh shade thrown at Germany.

Acceptance of Dassault lead role essential to FCAS survival says Trappier

Airbus's acceptance of Dassault's lead role in the critical next phase of the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme was essential to the effort to develop a sixth-generation fighter, says the French airframer's chief executive Eric Trappier.

www.flightglobal.com

Dassault chief concerned by impact of Germany on FCAS export sales

Dassault chief executive Eric Trappier has expressed his concern that German reluctance to sanction arms exports to certain countries will hamper the success of the trinational Future Combat Air System (FCAS). The French airframer, alongside Airbus and Indra, is developing the FCAS - including...

www.flightglobal.com

 

[FighterJock]

I do wonder just how much unity there is between France and Germany over SCAF, especially on the part of Germany trying to ban export sales. If that turns out to be true if I were Dassault's chief executive I would quickly show Germany the door.

 

[IRT]

I wonder why they are talking about SCAF being snuffed out. On the contrary I think it would make enormous sense for France to go at it alone. There's a host of nations who have a desire to be free of US export controls, who have traditionally bought French, and due to recent geopolitical events, this list has began to expand. I think the extra burdens of having to develop a fighter alone might be more than made up with the increased export potential, as France has become the first choice supplier of aircraft for anyone who doesn't want to buy American.

The problem for France is that it cant afford to go at it alone. This project is expected to cost over €100 billion, of which Germany expects to invest over €40 billion. If u cut the budget in half, can u still put out a new cutting edge "6th gen" fighter? Or will it be more like a 2nd tier "5th gen" fighter coming out to the market in 2040? Most likely way behind the next gen US/China/UK fighters in terms of capability.

 

[VTOLicious]

"...92 export orders for Rafales. The bulk of this comprised a deal for 80 examples to the United Arab Emirates..."

It's resonable to assume a future prospect on a SCAF export version was part of the UAE deal.

 

[FighterJock]

Let's see if that is the case VTOLicious, it would be good going if the UAE bought the SCAF even if it was an export version.

 

[red admiral]

If that turns out to be true if I were Dassault's chief executive I would quickly show Germany the door.

But Dassault isn't in charge of the programme. The French, German and Spanish governments are. Given the massive money and IP that Germany is going to sink into it, they're well within their rights to have export controls.

 

[FighterJock]

France won't like it at all if that is the case. I can see the SCAF joint program collapsing over that issue red admiral, and that is not good news at all.

 

[Broken]

The problem for France is that it cant afford to go at it alone. This project is expected to cost over €100 billion, of which Germany expects to invest over €40 billion. If u cut the budget in half, can u still put out a new cutting edge "6th gen" fighter? Or will it be more like a 2nd tier "5th gen" fighter coming out to the market in 2040? Most likely way behind the next gen US/China/UK fighters in terms of capability.

Do the French really need a cutting edge design to compete? They are typically selling to countries that either can't buy from the US now, or those that want to diversify incase they can't buy from the US in future. I can see the attraction for Dassault in continuing to evolve Rafale and then as orders drop off moving to a French-only 5+ gen NGF.

 

[TomcatViP]

Dassault's Eric Trappier continuing to be the promoter of unity, following up his March comments with fresh shade thrown at Germany.

It's not only the Rafale that is Omnirole, their CEO too is Omnidirectional!

 

[Ainen]

The problem for France is that it cant afford to go at it alone. This project is expected to cost over €100 billion, of which Germany expects to invest over €40 billion. If u cut the budget in half, can u still put out a new cutting edge "6th gen" fighter? Or will it be more like a 2nd tier "5th gen" fighter coming out to the market in 2040? Most likely way behind the next gen US/China/UK fighters in terms of capability.

100 bil isn't the development cost, it's the whole thing altogether, with everything. Moreover, significant part of those 100 bil, as we learned from Eurofighter, comes specifically from inefficient distributed development.

The problem right now is precisely that income from Rafale sales now both covers development costs and shows that screwing Germans with their export controls is totally worth it. All the money remains within France, all the skills remain within France.

Yes, France is fully capable of developing and fielding a modern fighter aircraft, fully competitive with what US/China/UK(did their competitive finally get ESA?) deploy in terms of capability.

That's the whole problem of it - before the Rafale export streak, France had to begrudgingly accept it(thou even then i doubt they would've pressed through with it, simply from history alone).
But after that there is only a political motivation - and given how it breaks every 5-6 years, it just pointless.

 

[H_K]

By the way, Dassault have been given the green light to work on a UCAV as part of the Rafale F5 program. This UCAV will be « derived from the works of the Neuron ».

Sounds like a decent Plan B in the event that SCAF fails or is slow to deliver (though they will still need to design a stealth fighter at some point).

Rafale developments: Rafale F4 standard completion by 2027, negotiation and launch of the Rafale F5 standard which will include the development of a drone derived from the works of the nEUROn.

https://www.dassault-aviation.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2023/07/0-press-conference-20-07-2023-web1.pdf

 

[red admiral]

By the way, Dassault have been given the green light to work on a UCAV as part of the Rafale F5 program. This UCAV will be « derived from the works of the Neuron ».

Yeah it's difficult to understand that one and where it fits in given existing Dassault work on Rafael development and NGF. I thought there was also no funding attached to this announcement so it's difficult to see whether it's real.

But surely the mood music for Germany and Spain is that France is going to pull out of SCAF soonish, so what's their plan b?

 

[IRT]

100 bil isn't the development cost, it's the whole thing altogether, with everything. Moreover, significant part of those 100 bil, as we learned from Eurofighter, comes specifically from inefficient distributed development.

The problem right now is precisely that income from Rafale sales now both covers development costs and shows that screwing Germans with their export controls is totally worth it. All the money remains within France, all the skills remain within France.

Yes, France is fully capable of developing and fielding a modern fighter aircraft, fully competitive with what US/China/UK(did their competitive finally get ESA?) deploy in terms of capability.

That's the whole problem of it - before the Rafale export streak, France had to begrudgingly accept it(thou even then i doubt they would've pressed through with it, simply from history alone).
But after that there is only a political motivation - and given how it breaks every 5-6 years, it just pointless.

I know 100 billion isnt only development cost. But if 60% of the money goes away if Germany and Spain drops out, 60% of the money for R&D goes away.. unless France can afford to spend what all 3 countries was supposed to spend. If R&D money drops by 60% the end product will be much less impressive.

U think that France alone can afford to build a more advanced fighter than what UK/Japan/Italy can build together? New fighters cost a ton of money, if u got 1/3 of the money to build a fighter compared to ur competition your fighter will be way less sophisticated.

 

[IRT]

Do the French really need a cutting edge design to compete? They are typically selling to countries that either can't buy from the US now, or those that want to diversify incase they can't buy from the US in future. I can see the attraction for Dassault in continuing to evolve Rafale and then as orders drop off moving to a French-only 5+ gen NGF.

Maybe maybe not, in the case of the Rafale it was cutting edge when new.. only betterd by the F22.. of course yo can take the easy route and just design a stealth airframe, put the Rafale's avoinics suite in it and upgrade the m88 engines for it an call it a day. But it would most likely still be a less sophisticated fighter than the F35.. and coming into service after 2040.

 

[TomcatViP]

The Rafale was never cutting edge. The early Rafale, that were the one for the Navy, got in service with only a minimalistic set of avionic and weapons. Basically a gun and a radio.
French forces are constantly impaired by the technology gap of the Rafale that has remained since.

Today, they have for example a couple dozen of AESA for the fleet, a poor level of IR/EO sensors, weaker engines than what other have and an outdated airframe design, with man intensive maintenance issues or restricted data fusion.

 

[Ainen]

The Rafale was never cutting edge. The early Rafale, that were the one for the Navy, got in service with only a minimalistic set of avionic and weapons. Basically a gun and a radio.

That's sort of normal. All new fighters nowadays are first born a bit stupid.

Today, they have for example a couple dozen of AESA for the fleet, a poor level of IR/EO sensors, weaker engines than what other have and an outdated airframe design, with man extensive maintenance issues or restricted data fusion.

...which is actually a very reasonable average level for a modern airforce.
Yes - it's behind a couple of small European all-f-35 forces, which are barely sovereign; nor that it makes them stronger, given their size and ammunition stocks. But when you make a level comparison with other significant airforces around the world - AdA's position is very fair - well above the NATO average, well above Western-aligned average. Comparable/somewhat superior to the Chinese and Russian average. Outright better than the rest of the world.

 

[Hood]

Seems a poor excuse to some extent. Germany had recently been making noises about relaxing its export controls.
And SCAF won't be operational until at least 2040, that's something like 5 German Parliaments' time, 3 French Presidents' time, perhaps 1-2 German Chancellors' and 5-6 French governments' time - so who knows what evolutions of foreign policy will take place by then?

One thing for sure, no air force is going to give Trappier a big fat cheque today for a fighter that's still vapourware and won't be ready for the next 17 years...

 

[FighterJock]

Let's wait and see what happens Hood. I would like the Germans to relax their export controls, and also I did not know that SCAF would not be operational until 2040 so who know's what the French and German political landscape will be like then.

 

[flateric]

2021 what a familiar planform...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTN4xVi6UJ4

 

[timmymagic]

Let's wait and see what happens Hood. I would like the Germans to relax their export controls, and also I did not know that SCAF would not be operational until 2040 so who know's what the French and German political landscape will be like then.

There was talk of it being more like 2045...

 

[FighterJock]

2045 for the in service date of SCAF timmymagic? That is a long time to wait for a new fighter.

 

[TomcatViP]

And what would be aircombat in 20 years?! Just walk into the past and see all the idiosyncrasies of the late 1990's or those of the early 60's proved wrong only less than a decade later...

One step at a time.

 

[X-39]

From ITP Aero:

 

[Scott Kenny]

Let's wait and see what happens Hood. I would like the Germans to relax their export controls, and also I did not know that SCAF would not be operational until 2040 so who know's what the French and German political landscape will be like then.

I thought that the entire agreement as written did not allow any one country to block exports?

 

[WatcherZero]

From ITP Aero:

Interesting it doesnt have an airflow divider between the exhaust nozzles which also helps reduce IR signature and smooth the airflow off the fuselage, more like the Chinese designs than the recent US/Russian/British trend.

 

[timmymagic]

2045 for the in service date of SCAF timmymagic? That is a long time to wait for a new fighter.

Trappier himself mentioned it....think its far more likely than 2040 now...

 

[FighterJock]

Not as bad as the 2045 time frame timmymagic. I would like the SCAF to enter service in 2040 but we will have to wait and see what happens between now and then to see if that is possible.

 

[timmymagic]

Francis Tusa has a new piece...its hard to argue with it. If France is playing hardball to get an advantage in negotiations they're failing as Airbus are either blissfully unaware that they're doing so, or they believe their position is far stronger than anyone else does....or the French are deadly serious and SCAF has ended before it even starts...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698730465807544693

View: https://twitter.com/DefAeroNews/status/1698730465807544693

 

[helmutkohl]

^ so if France and Germany split and go separate directions, where would the other partners (Spain?) join

 

[Scott Kenny]

^ so if France and Germany split and go separate directions, where would the other partners (Spain?) join

I'm leaning towards Germany, as the factory in Spain is Airbus.

 

[WatcherZero]

France is shafting Spain by awarding contracts for French companies to do work that mirrors Spains SCAF workshare so I cant see them sticking with France if it breaks down. Maybe Spain would be happy to work with SAAB on a Gripen upgrade/successor and target the market for rugged easily sustainable aircraft in countries which couldn't sustain a 6th gen/full 5th gen aircraft (whats the point of all the network functionality and swarm integration if you dont have extensive intelligence/communication/AWAC platforms/drone fleets to integrate with), though they would be in a crowded marketplace competing with India, China, Turkey and South Korea.

 

[kqcke for you]

Nah i believe france can't handle the Problems they get from Killing SCAF but working around all Things Germany and Spain do to have "full" capability to Export and the longer there Rafales Run the better it is. Tought for many things they could use the research from themself and FCAS for even better Tech. But hey who knows the end right.

 

[kqcke for you]

I could also See a "national" German / german-spanish Version for Germany and Spain from GCAP If they would Join. For this one they would have the Export rights but not any other Versions. Tought all members fully Work together... more or less. Maybe sweden would join to and GCAP has 5 Nations in Europa or even more

 

[Hood]

This 'will they won't they' teenage romance is going to have to end soon. No good dreaming about shiny new planes for 2045 if they can't work together now - the partnership is never going to hold up for 22 more years.

That's the reality, for all the boardroom fantasies of folks who probably won't even be with either company by then due to career progression etc. they need to knuckle down for the long road.

(and quite frankly if Dassault is that hot at making super planes then why are they aiming for IOC 15 years behind GCAP and everybody else?).

 

[Broken]

(and quite frankly if Dassault is that hot at making super planes then why are they aiming for IOC 15 years behind GCAP and everybody else?).

Rafale had no exports for a long time, it was the Americans uncharacteristically getting cold feet over selling bangy things to autocrats that revitalised Dassault's fortunes. Yes it is impressive France retains the ability to build a fighter largely (not entirely) in-house, but I don't get the fanboyism.

Does French industry alone have the capability to make a genuinely competitive 6th gen fighter? Safran is no big 3. They can make an engine, but is it going to keep up with the likes of what GE, P&W and RR produce? How much electricity will they provide to increasingly sophisticated systems? If France leaves SCAF and upgrades Rafale until a decision on a new aircraft then France will have had no experience of flying a true LO fighter for almost half a century after the F-22 entry into service. I'm not a Kaan or KF21 fanboy, looks are more impressive than what is under the hood and they are hardly entirely indigenous, but still the point is by 2050 an increasing number of 2nd tier developers will have had decades of LO fighter experience under their belts. Can France keep up with UK+JPN+IT in radar/sensing? I don't buy it. What about EW? The list goes on. To push French industry from quality to cutting edge in all domains would need France to pump far more money into the industry than is realistic.

Personally I think the French industry is making a big mistake in thinking that a temporary set of circumstances provides an unlimited meal ticket into the future. France will continue to pursue quality - but not cutting edge - fighters that may increasingly look a bit old fashioned. That might be OK for some dodgy middle eastern country that can't get planes anywhere else. Trouble is this market is only going to get more crowded, especially with the proliferation of cheap armed drones as a bargain basement alternative to an airforce. In that case with exports becoming tougher the French are going to increasingly be paying over the odds for a less capable Armée de l'Air.

I don't have the blind faith some appear to have that France going it alone will necessarily work out for them either.

 

[H_K]

This is a classic case of “concern trolling”. Francis Tusa bats for the home team (UK) and I suspect he’s enjoying twisting the knife in the wound to “help” the patient along.

He (intentionally?) mischaracterizes many of the French decisions. The small-scale hypersonic research program, Aarok MALE UAV trials, limited support for Indian fighter programs have nothing to do with SCAF, just like BAE’s support for Turkey’s own fighter program has nothing to do with GCAP.

Likewise the potential Neuron-like UCAV is not part of SCAF’s scope and continuous Rafale improvements are no different from similar Eurofighter programs like Quadriga.

That leaves the question mark of small/medium remote carriers and the French combat cloud designed to support the Rafale user base of 500-600 aircraft. Obviously this has the potential to serve as a “plan B” if SCAF fails or is delayed, but you can hardly blame the French gov/industry/air force to be working on delivering incremental improvements over the next 15-20 years prior to SCAF’s entry in service.

 

[Hood]

Agreed - as I said in a post in response to Tusa's other report, it's absurd not to think that most of these efforts are linked into extending Rafale's life for another two decades. Dassault has to be pragmatic about this. I do think that Tusa is being a touch disingenuous with these reports.

In fact if you look as Dassault historically they always had a lot of irons in the fire, whether that was paper projects, prototypes or in-production aircraft. Nobody can fault Dassault for not pushing their wares and offering multiple products ("Here have this Mirage III in a dozen versions. You don't like that? Take a Mirage V instead, or a F1 in a dozen versions, G8, Super Mirage, F2, G1, G4, 2000, 4000 and if you really really insist there are some Jaguars out back.").