So time to update the list....again....
Orders still being built...
28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 Typhoon
Ordered or 'due to be...' - On contract in Bold
38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
20 x Typhoon to Germany under 'Project Quadriga 2'?
15 x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered. However, these are upgrades of existing airframes*
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Still not ordered, has gone quiet.....will Israel/Palestine/Yemen etc force the issue? Might move to potential in future as no news recently....
Total - 127 Typhoon * Typhoon EK added in for completeness, but not in the Total as the initial 15 will be conversions of existing aircraft.
Potential Orders...in order of probability...
24 x Typhoon to Italy - Was rumoured, and denied, by credible sources...but has now been confirmed by Airbus CEO
30 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4/5/LTE? to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Reduced to 30 from 50 due to 'Quadriga 2', expected in next budget cycle. But...'next budget cycle' could mean more F-35 or nothing...
48-72 x Typhoon to Saudi Arabia - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. 48 is more likely..
15 x Typhoon EK to Germany - Second batch of new build EK
25 x Typhoon to Spain - Potential up to another 25 under a 'Project Halcon III', bumped up the list as rumours from Spain recently have significantly downplayed F-35....perhaps only a small number of F-35B will be ordered if at all.
12 x Typhoon to Qatar - Qatar have an option on an additional 12 a/c from their current contract
24 - 48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Keeps popping up, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' Or 48..
24 x Typhoon to Poland - Poland appears to want more fighters and Eurofighter have been pitching it heavily...normally you'd assume F-35 would be in the lead, but the Poles don't seem averse to multiple platforms in any domain and they may want cover in case the US gets Trump again...
12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese, KF-21 likely frontrunner after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, however that is mired in the usual corruption allegations...
Total - 214-274 x Typhoon
Rumours...old and new - Exceptionally Low to Zero Probability
24 x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - With the news of RAF reducing all their T1's to parts this can be ditched...
Typhoon to Serbia - was a very, very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments and Serbian Government under Vucic. With Rafale sold now not credible
? x Typhoon Tranche 1 (second hand) to Indonesia - a exceptionally distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).
A Question...still outstanding
The RAF is ''Reduce to Produce'ing' all of its Tranche 1 Typhoon. What happens to the Spanish and German Tranche 1's when replaced by Quadriga and Halcon? And the Austrian and Italian Tranche 1's when withdrawn? There could be c100 low mileage (less than half lifetime airframe hours) Typhoon Tranche 1 on the market over the next 6 years, all with some upgrade potential....I've advocated sending them to Ukraine for free, be interesting to see what the users do....will they scrap for parts like RAF? Or sell on? Or gift?
Another Question....
Airbus are now pushing for UK involvement in new orders (and who can blame them, but it serves them in multiple ways as well...), and there will be a new Government in the next month....BAE are very quiet however, clearly not wanting to in anyway distract from GCAP (whilst Airbus would very much like to...). Will BAE have enough going on to bridge the production gap until GCAP? Would getting T2's ECRS help? What happens if Saudi's order never arrives? Does UK Gov step in with an order (like I suspect Italy are doing..). Or is component manufacture for others Typhoons, Typhoon upgrades and F-35 sufficient...?
Realistically...
I think there will definitely be at least 160 c200 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reach 240 higher than that with a following wind. Any more than that would be a massive bonus....and a big surprise (it certainly won't hit 401 like Ordered and Potential Orders tally to above, but if it got to 240 that would be incredible).