Aurora - a Famous Speculative Project

[Byeman]

Well, not secret but covert - North EDW, Beale, among others...

Not even covert. Just highly restricted but activity is still visible so no secret landings.

 

[quellish]

The two stage system is what was covered by Quellish in his BlackDown issues from the 90's. Always good read with decent content.

Some of the reports are quite interesting, especially the one from Patrick AFB. Seems most of the pages from the past are no longer active but there are still BalckDown pages available using Wayback Machine. I recommend

And that was a valuable lesson for me - I learned to not rely on or take much value in sightings from observers.

While the content on Black Dawn was based on the best information available at the time, a lot of it we now know to be incorrect.

I will be revisiting those topics on a new platform at some point and some of the new content will be debunking/refuting the old. Sources will be cited, there will be clear distinction between facts, analysis, and speculation, etc.

 

[Morgan]

Not even covert. Just highly restricted but activity is still visible so no secret landings.

Same as the Groom is as well. You can observe activity from nearby towns and places on public spots.

And that was a valuable lesson for me - I learned to not rely on or take much value in sightings from observers.

While the content on Black Dawn was based on the best information available at the time, a lot of it we now know to be incorrect.

I will be revisiting those topics on a new platform at some point and some of the new content will be debunking/refuting the old. Sources will be cited, there will be clear distinction between facts, analysis, and speculation, etc.

Looking forward to it!

 

[CJGibson]

I think the denizens of this forum, especially the long-term residents have seen just about every iteration of the rumours about this subject.

I've seen/read/heard more than my fair share of cobblers on the subject, most recently (well, a couple of years ago) was a claim that the runway at Machrihanish was repainted with the seasons, like a 10,000ft ptarmigan.

We welcome new information, but pitching old canards (in both senses of the word) as new tends to attract a reaction. While enthusiasm for an aviation subject is great to see, claiming that Groom Lake is a Blofeld-style hideway merely invites ridicule.

Quellish, LO, SpeedFanatic, myself and many others have been looking into this for over 30 years, we're most receptive to new information, but trotting out old cobblers from other websites doesn't add to the work we've put in over the years.

Chris

 

[Scott Kenny]

First operational hypersonic aircraft, there's still a little room for speculating an hypersonic prototype aircraft . Also mind if I ask what you think the booms in the desert belong to if it wasn't an hypersonic aircraft?

A merely supersonic aircraft. Anything from Blackbirds to F-22s to F-16s.

 

[Ninja]

A merely supersonic aircraft. Anything from Blackbirds to F-22s to F-16s.

The F22 took its first flight in 1997. The skyquakes were from 1991-1993. Also the Blackbird was retired by then, AND was confirmed to not be flying those days. Also F-16's cannot continously produce sonic booms as the ones described over LA.

 

[Ninja]

There are no other 'secret" bases or landing sites.

Well, not secret but covert - North EDW, Beale, among others...

And Plant 42 as well.

 

[Byeman]

And Plant 42 as well.

Again, not secret

 

[quellish]

And Plant 42 as well.

None of those locations are covert. Urban sprawl is a real thing.

Plant 42 is surrounded by housing, shopping malls etc. that were not there in the 80s and early 90s. There is a scenic overlook on the freeway going into Palmdale that looks directly into Palmdale airport from above - there are even telescopes there to get a better look.

 

[Byeman]

The F22 took its first flight in 1997. The skyquakes were from 1991-1993. Also the Blackbird was retired by then, AND was confirmed to not be flying those days. Also F-16's cannot continously produce sonic booms as the ones described over LA.

Sonic booms are by definition continuously produced by any supersonic plane. Just like a wake of a boat arriving at the shore.

 

[Ninja]

Sonic booms are by definition continuously produced by any supersonic plane. Just like a wake of a boat arriving at the shore.

Bad on my end. Still wondering what caused those booms if it wasn't Aurora or any other aircraft.

 

[Morgan]

I think the denizens of this forum, especially the long-term residents have seen just about every iteration of the rumours about this subject.

I've seen/read/heard more than my fair share of cobblers on the subject, most recently (well, a couple of years ago) was a claim that the runway at Machrihanish was repainted with the seasons, like a 10,000ft ptarmigan.

We welcome new information, but pitching old canards (in both senses of the word) as new tends to attract a reaction. While enthusiasm for an aviation subject is great to see, claiming that Groom Lake is a Blofeld-style hideway merely invites ridicule.

Quellish, LO, SpeedFanatic, myself and many others have been looking into this for over 30 years, we're most receptive to new information, but trotting out old cobblers from other websites doesn't add to the work we've put in over the years.

Chris

Thank you for clarification Chris and your good words.
Changed my username from SpeedFanatic to Morgan today so my posts will display with new username.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The F22 took its first flight in 1997. The skyquakes were from 1991-1993. Also the Blackbird was retired by then, AND was confirmed to not be flying those days. Also F-16's cannot continously produce sonic booms as the ones described over LA.

That list was not exhaustive, but so what?

Any supersonic aircraft could have caused those booms. I mean, it could have been a D-21, though that's a very low probability. It just requires an aircraft doing supersonic cruise.

Oh, right. Apparently F-14Ds could supercruise.

 

[Ninja]

That list was not exhaustive, but so what?

Any supersonic aircraft could have caused those booms. I mean, it could have been a D-21, though that's a very low probability. It just requires an aircraft doing supersonic cruise.

Oh, right. Apparently F-14Ds could supercruise.

Exactly, low probability. The D21 was retired in 1971. Also dont come at me with attitude please.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Exactly, low probability. The D21 was retired in 1971. Also dont come at me with attitude please.

Attitude not intended.

Just that there's a relatively large number of possible in-service aircraft that could have caused the skyquakes. An F-14 fitted with F110 engines, for example.

 

[Ninja]

Attitude not intended.

Just that there's a relatively large number of possible in-service aircraft that could have caused the skyquakes. An F-14 fitted with F110 engines, for example.

So why state that now instead of previously? And as far as I know, no F14's were reported on the days of the skyquakes. Got no idea what's up with the specificity.

 

[Whisperstream]

I remember the "sky quake" stories. There were some theories regarding US Navy jet activity over the Pacific range areas off the coast of Southern California, but I can't recall the details.

One day, I had my own "sky quake" experience. I was living in the Hollywood Hills at the time and we had what I believed was an earthquake. My father asked, "Did you feel that? It was like a freight train coming through." This was sometime in the late morning or early afternoon, which was unusual for an earthquake in my experience. They typically occurred in the early predawn hours. Later, watching the evening news, I saw reports on the event that said CalTech scientists has no records of seismic activity at that time. It was not an earthquake, after all. My only regret is that I did not note the time or date for future reference.

 

[quellish]

I remember the "sky quake" stories. There were some theories regarding US Navy jet activity over the Pacific range areas off the coast of Southern California, but I can't recall the details.

One day, I had my own "sky quake" experience. I was living in the Hollywood Hills at the time and we had what I believed was an earthquake. My father asked, "Did you feel that? It was like a freight train coming through." This was sometime in the late morning or early afternoon, which was unusual for an earthquake in my experience. They typically occurred in the early predawn hours. Later, watching the evening news, I saw reports on the event that said CalTech scientists has no records of seismic activity at that time. It was not an earthquake, after all. My only regret is that I did not note the time or date for future reference.

That has happened to me 2 or 3 times. First time I kind of shrugged it off, when I later looked for an earthquake at USGS there was nothing recorded. The second time I figured it was the shuttle, but when I checked it wasn't the shuttle or an earthquake.

In contrast when the shuttle came into Edwards it was hard to mistake. The first time that happened to me I thought a truck had backed into my place. It was a distinct BANG!BANG!! . A double bang with the 2nd being sharper and more intense than the 1st. It did not sound at all like any other sonic boom I've heard or felt.

 

[quellish]

That has happened to me 2 or 3 times. First time I kind of shrugged it off, when I later looked for an earthquake at USGS there was nothing recorded. The second time I figured it was the shuttle, but when I checked it wasn't the shuttle or an earthquake.

In contrast when the shuttle came into Edwards it was hard to mistake. The first time that happened to me I thought a truck had backed into my place. It was a distinct BANG!BANG!! . A double bang with the 2nd being sharper and more intense than the 1st. It did not sound at all like any other sonic boom I've heard or felt.

And for those interested in "sky quakes" :

J.J. Mori, Hiroo Kanamori, "Estimating trajectories of supersonic objects using arrival times of sonic booms", 1991, https://www.usgs.gov/publications/e...sonic-objects-using-arrival-times-sonic-booms

Hiroo Kanamori, Jim Mori, Don L. Anderson & Thomas H. Heaton , "Seismic excitation by the space shuttle Columbia", 1991, https://www.nature.com/articles/349781a0

H. Kanamori, J. Mori, B. Sturtevant, D.L. Anderson, and T. Heaton, "Seismic excitation by space shuttles", 1992, https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/7... Columbia,a broadband seismograph in Pasadena.

Joseph E. Cates; Bradford Sturtevant, "Seismic detection of sonic booms", 2002, https://pubs.aip.org/asa/jasa/artic...ection-of-sonic-booms?redirectedFrom=fulltext , also available here https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/hgerx-ywa87
(somewhat refutes the earlier papers, especially the mystery booms, but has more of the mystery boom data)

And the Los Angeles Times, from 1992:

Secret Is Out on 'Quakes': It's a Spy Plane : Aviation: Analysts believe that Aurora, a craft that can travel 4,000 m.p.h., could be the cause of frayed morning nerves.

It happened again Thursday morning.

www.latimes.com

 

[publiusr]

Havent seen too much talk of the "2-stage" Aurora. I know most people believe in the singular Aurora, but what about the 2-stage version of it which was also rumoured at the same time?
View attachment 709042

The so called Brilliant Buzzard.

It still wouldn't orbit anything even if real.

Now there was a secret base that had spaceships... launched by R-7 of course.

There is a part of me that wonders if some half-melted fuselage of a failed rocket plane would be a Groom Lake...there was a documentary where Soviet spy sats we're called "ash-cans" --which seemed to indicate aviation enthusiasts disdain for standard rocketry.

Instead of simply dismissing Aurora as itself being an imaginary craft... could it be that maybe someone didn't do their maths correctly and just stretched an X-15 type contraption...and it wasn't quite what they'd thought it'd be....any secrecy used to to cover a failure rather than success?

 

[Scott Kenny]

So why state that now instead of previously? And as far as I know, no F14's were reported on the days of the skyquakes. Got no idea what's up with the specificity.

Because it didn't come to mind till then.

 

[Rhinocrates]

A two-parter by Sandboxx a year ago on Aurora. It does a nice job of looking into the complexities of the issue - funding, the origins of the name etc. His eventual conclusion is a operational fleet is very unlikely but a series of experimental craft/demonstrators if not prototypes is likely.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_r31ibMshA&t=13s

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQdpborKJUY


My own impression, which I've stated before, is pretty much that. For example, PDEs for hypersonic applications were all the rage for a while and then suddenly they weren't. Perhaps not because they suddenly became secret (helical combustion is the thing now) but because testing showed that they didn't work or worked but vibration caused cumulative irreparable damage to airframes. Other possibilities are that they didn't achieve the performance needed to fulfil their intended missions or the thermal management system had problems that were intractable with technology of the day. Or maybe it even worked, but it was incredibly expensive and required an extensive rebuild after each mission. In some ways, prolonged hypersonic flight is more difficult than spaceflight - re-entry from orbit is fast but brief, while mach 6 cruise thoroughly roasts the plane and its systems.

 

[Scott Kenny]

My own impression, which I've stated before, is pretty much that. For example, PDEs for hypersonic applications were all the rage for a while and then suddenly they weren't. Perhaps not because they suddenly became secret (helical combustion is the thing now) but because testing showed that they didn't work or worked but vibration caused cumulative irreparable damage to airframes. Other possibilities are that they didn't achieve the performance needed to fulfil their intended missions or the thermal management system had problems that were intractable with technology of the day. Or maybe it even worked, but it was incredibly expensive and required an extensive rebuild after each mission. In some ways, prolonged hypersonic flight is more difficult than spaceflight - re-entry from orbit is fast but brief, while mach 6 cruise thoroughly roasts the plane and its systems.

I mean, rocket engines had serious vibration problems from the sheer noise, and those are continuous burning/deflagrating engines, not pulsing detonations.

 

[Rhinocrates]

In TRL it may have entered the 'valley of death' and died there.

 

[Scott Kenny]

In TRL it may have entered the 'valley of death' and died there.
View attachment 709064

Yeah, that step from 6 to 7, building the operational prototype, is a killer.

 

[quellish]

A two-parter by Sandboxx a year ago on Aurora. It does a nice job of looking into the complexities of the issue - funding, the origins of the name etc. His eventual conclusion is a operational fleet is very unlikely but a series of experimental craft/demonstrators if not prototypes is likely.

I stopped the video when he mentioned the "SR-72".
Seriously?

My own impression, which I've stated before, is pretty much that. For example, PDEs for hypersonic applications were all the rage for a while and then suddenly they weren't.

So let's back up for a second.

The PDE thing in the early 1990s, and it's connection to "Aurora" began with sightings of a fast moving object or light accompanied by a loud, pulsing sound. When it was seen as a light the light itself was also pulsing with the sound it made.

Later, the same pulsing sound was heard while an aircraft was creating the "donuts on a rope" contrails. This was reported by Steve Douglass and covered in Aviation Week. Steve and AvWeek made the connection between the "pulser" and "impulse engines" or PDEs.

A year or two prior Eidelmann at the Naval Postgraduate School published a paper on PDEs. He had previously published several papers on it as far back as 1986. Because of the AvWeek article(s) PDEs had renewed (public) interest.

To build an aircraft like "Aurora" in the late 1980s or early 1990s would have required technical advancement or innovation in several areas, most notably propulsion and airframe integration. With hypersonic aircraft the propulsion system drives the airframe configuration because of drag, heating, and in the case of air breathing aircraft feeding air to the engine. PDEs were very interesting for hypersonic aircraft because they offered high efficiency, could operate over a wide range of airspeeds, and may have greatly simplified heating and inlet designs. Without an innovative propulsion system like a PDE you end up carrying an engine for each speed regime and trying to reduce the weight and complexity for all of them. That is where we get air-turbo-ramjets and other "combined cycle" propulsion systems from.

During the 1990s several companies were quietly working on PDEs and continued to do so into at least the early 2000s. Most of them were using internal funds to do so.

After Combustion: Detonation!

At first glance, the engine bolted to the test stand looks like an unlikely candidate to lead an aerospace revolution. Its size is unimpressive: At about four feet long, it's dwarfed by the machinery that feeds it air and fuel, machinery that fills a house-size structure at the China Lake Naval...

www.popsci.com

As it turned out, PDEs had been studied long before the Eidelmann papers. There was serious work done on PDEs as far back as the 1950s. At a number of points PDEs were considered for various (subsonic) missiles, etc.

A hypersonic, air breathing aircraft in the late 1980s would be more plausible if there had been a propulsion breakthrough like a PDE. An operational PDE would have solved a number of issues that have prevented such aircraft from becoming operational.

That said...

To clarify my own position on the subject of "Aurora", after pursuing this line of research for a considerable amount of time...

I do, at this point believe that during the late 1980s into at least the mid 1990s there was at least one type of very fast (M4+) , probably manned aircraft flying in the US.

This is after many years of research and continually changing methods, standards, and re-evaluating that position. I am much more skeptical than I was 20+ years ago, yet given the information/evidence I have seen (and verified) I do believe that there was something flying.

What I do find astounding though is that so many now believe in the "RQ-180", when the evidence for that is substantially weaker than for "Aurora"!

 

[Byeman]

That list was not exhaustive, but so what?

Any supersonic aircraft could have caused those booms. I mean, it could have been a D-21, though that's a very low probability. It just requires an aircraft doing supersonic cruise.

Oh, right. Apparently F-14Ds could supercruise.

Supercruise is just going supersonic without using afterburners and has no bearing on this matter

 

[Byeman]

Attitude not intended.

Just that there's a relatively large number of possible in-service aircraft that could have caused the skyquakes. An F-14 fitted with F110 engines, for example.

Any F-14 could have made them.

 

[archipeppe]

....any secrecy used to to cover a failure rather than success?

A failure (even a secret one), after four decades, is no longer a failure rather a "lesson learned" and most commonly a simple "history".
Furthermore, there is no longer reason to kept it secret.

 

[Whisperstream]

I do, at this point believe that during the late 1980s into at least the mid 1990s there was at least one type of very fast (M4+) , probably manned aircraft flying in the US.

This is after many years of research and continually changing methods, standards, and re-evaluating that position. I am much more skeptical than I was 20+ years ago, yet given the information/evidence I have seen (and verified) I do believe that there was something flying.

What I do find astounding though is that so many now believe in the "RQ-180", when the evidence for that is substantially weaker than for "Aurora"!

I cannot say with certainty that there was no high-speed aircraft flying in the late 1980s/early 1990s. If it existed, we now know it wasn't called AURORA. It may or may not have been associated with the "sky quakes." My father used to walk the dog early in the morning, just before or just after sunrise. He reported seeing a bright object (picking up the sunlight from altitude) that moved very fast in a straight line (eastwardly or northeastwardly?) every Thursday morning. There was no associated sound or sonic boom.

In my own research, I have yet to find any convincing evidence to support the existence of a high-speed high flyer (call it "Aurora" if we must). The program seems to have no "footprint" that I can detect. In comparison, the F-117A (SENIOR TREND) program had a huge footprint back in the early to mid 1980s, years before it was declassified. The aviation press was reporting what turned out to be surprisingly accurate details about the manufacturer, numbers built, and basing. TACIT BLUE had a small but detectable footprint and so did the Bird of Prey, and those were both one-of-a-kind demonstrators. The so-called "RQ-180" is arguably Bigfoot compared to the above. Thanks to the efforts of AvWeek and others, one could built a fairly accurate program timeline and there have been several reported sightings accompanied by convincing photographs.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Supercruise is just going supersonic without using afterburners and has no bearing on this matter

Fine. An aircraft going supersonic for an extended period.

I suppose even a B-1 could do so, maxing out at M1.2.

 

[sublight_]

technical advancement or innovation in several areas, most notably propulsion and airframe integration

Well the Long EZ with PDE in it was definitely a step in the right direction. How far away could you hear this thing?

 

[Byeman]

Fine. An aircraft going supersonic for an extended period.

I suppose even a B-1 could do so, maxing out at M1.2.

I don't why an "extended period" has to be caveated. A box of 200 x 150 miles envelopes the greater Los Angeles area. Any aircraft that can go supersonic can do a dash that spans this area.

 

[CJGibson]

I stopped the video when he mentioned the "SR-72".
Seriously?

I sat through the lot one rainy Sunday morning. What a shouty man. Needs to take a leaf out of The Tank Museum's presentation style book.

I was looking forward to hearing what the revelation about me was. Just some cod psychology and even misquotes me. Must be the accent.

Some of the under-comments are superb.

Chris

 

[Dew]

Quellish, LO, SpeedFanatic, myself and many others have been looking into this for over 30 years, we're most receptive to new information, but trotting out old cobblers from other websites doesn't add to the work we've put in over the years.

At the risk of flogging a well-flogged horse - may I be so bold as to ask what, with the benefit of all this time, is your current position (best guess?) as to what you saw from Galveston Key?

 

[CJGibson]

Same. Haven't a clue.
Certainly wasn't on the ROC training list which ran to ~100+ military and civil types.

Chris

 

[Dew]

Thank you for your reply - I realise I'd phrased the question quite badly. I was certainly not questioning your 'no positive i.d.' then or indeed now (sorry if it came across that way). I suppose I was wondering if what your speculation of what it might have been had changed between then and now. "Haven't a clue" tells me apparently not!

 

[CJGibson]

Thank you for your reply - I realise I'd phrased the question quite badly. I was certainly not questioning your 'no positive i.d.' then or indeed now (sorry if it came across that way). I suppose I was wondering if what your speculation of what it might have been had changed between then and now. "Haven't a clue" tells me apparently not!

At least you asked. Most of the self-styled experts in this haven't.

Chris

 

[Scott Kenny]

I don't why an "extended period" has to be caveated. A box of 200 x 150 miles envelopes the greater Los Angeles area. Any aircraft that can go supersonic can do a dash that spans this area.

Because I was assuming a much longer supersonic time than just some jerk pilot booming LA.

 

[Byeman]

Because I was assuming a much longer supersonic time than just some jerk pilot booming LA.

The box is a lot more than LA, it includes Bakersfield and Fort Irwin and the area around Edwards