USAF to Retire B-1, B-2 in Early 2030s as B-21 Comes On-Line

mkellytx said:
NeilChapman said:
My first thought was that the plan would be same as B-2. It seems there are nineteen among three squadrons so perhaps six per. I think that number is constrained by limited numbers and perhaps the amount of support B-2 requires.

On one hand it would make sense to start off with a one for one replacement in squadrons until the aircraft is better known. On the other hand, Ellsworth is planning for ~30 Environmental Protection Shelters and it currently supports two bomber squadrons. So maybe the number is 15. Fifteen makes sense as the original plan was for 100 - 6 squadrons and the other ten for training and testing.

Time will tell.
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Thanks, good stuff Neil. So, thirty shelters and the FTU sounds a lot like the training squadron gets 14 PAA and the combat coded squadron gets 12 PAA for 26 PAA plus four spares gets to 30. For reference, at the 7 BW ages ago when the 28th was the Bone FTU (no WIC or test) the PAA was 14 while the 9th was 12 as the lone combat coded squadron.
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There is a big push for radical change in pilot training. It will be interesting to see how this changes B-21 quantities in a training squadron.
 
NeilChapman said:
There is a big push for radical change in pilot training. It will be interesting to see how this changes B-21 quantities in a training squadron.
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No doubt Neil, life's a bit easier with two person crews on two stations versus four on three or five on three. Most of the button pushing weapon system stuff doesn't require up and away training. Academics and sim will be as long or longer, perhaps the on aircraft stuff could be compressed. The big question mark is the expected annual throughput, both short and long course. If the buy stays large my money is on the larger squadron size to feed the pilot community beast.
 
mkellytx said:
NeilChapman said:
... The big question mark is the expected annual throughput, both short and long course. If the buy stays large my money is on the larger squadron size to feed the pilot community beast.
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Interesting point. Are we expecting B-1 pilots to go through training first? Don't they mostly need systems and stealth tactics training? Or perhaps it's 50% new guys. In a two crew configuration don't you stick a new pilot with an experienced B-1 pilot? Why wouldn't you use combat coded aircraft?
 
NeilChapman said:
Interesting point. Are we expecting B-1 pilots to go through training first? Don't they mostly need systems and stealth tactics training? Or perhaps it's 50% new guys. In a two crew configuration don't you stick a new pilot with an experienced B-1 pilot? Why wouldn't you use combat coded aircraft?
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If the B-2 is a guide the Raider will be a two pilot operation, WSO's need not apply. Don't feel too bad for them, there are all those empty F-15EX back seats... A few of the younger ones will get routed to UPT and come back as pilots.

The whole time I was around bombers the B-2 was a board only selection, since it always was a small community of priceless national assets, things may have changed since then. The best example of a largish transition was the Bone in the late 80's early 90's, all of my leadership in the early 2000's was that initial cadre. The initial cadre and first few batches of aircrew were all board selected. Once the community had a critical mass then it went to a more normal model of an FTU with short (other airframes) and long (UPT grads) courses.

So, initial Raider cadre will likely be board selected B-1/B-2/B-52 pilots with a few F-15E/F-35 guys sprinkled in, all will be super high potential folks. Price of entry will be IP on their respective type, O-4 and above will be top heavy on gray patch wearers. That will stand up the FTU, first combat coded squadrons' IOC's/FOC's and the weapons school. After that it all comes down to how big the fleet gets. Hopefully, the buy makes it to 130-150 jets in 8-10 combat coded squadrons and the pipeline gets set up to provide the right number of IP's and weapons school grads to become self sustaining before UPT grads start showing up to the FTU.

All that to say, the guys up at the 28th BW are going to be board selected for a while, the Bone pilots not selected will get to go south, get a staff job or transition to other airframes short on pilots/WSO's. The first batch at the 7th BW will be the the high potential types, at some point along the way they'll move away from the board and a flesh peddler at AFPC will figure out who transitions, who goes elsewhere and when to let the UPT guys put the Raider on their dream sheets.

So, hopefully this answers your question about experience. Most if not all of the initial cadre will be highly experience IP's on some other airframe and will train to be the trainers, with heavy input from the contractor and test community.

Unless Northrup pulls an F-22 situation where early blocks are not fully combat capable, then there will be no "combat coded aircraft" only an aircraft allocation for a combat coded squadron. When I was in the Bone community our jets were for the most part homogeneous, with a few notable exceptions. Pretty much every jet on the ramp was the same configuration, except for the one or two test jets with something in OT. When we got a tasking for the combat coded squadron (the 9th) we picked the best 8-12 jets on the ramp, regardless of if they had a 9th or 28th tail flash. The 12 PAA, means that the squadron will be expected to provide up to that many for a combat tasking, hence you probably have 14 jets, one in phase and maybe another sometimes at depot, but if there's another squadron on the base the expectation is that you'll use theirs as well to meet the tasking, else you may need 15-16 to meet the 12 if the airframe has a bad rep for reliability. Biggest consideration there was the number of hours left till the phase inspection. Doesn't make any sense to send something down range with less than XX% of its hours left if you're just going to have to swap it out in a few weeks.

All this to say, take it with a big grain of salt, it's been a while since I left the community and who knows what new idea(s) they've discovered since then, but it should give you the flavor.
 
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Grey Havoc said:
Grey Havoc said:
www.wsj.com

U.S. Pushes to Keep B-52 Bombers Going as Pressure From China Grows

Air Force and aerospace suppliers are looking to upgrade the vintage fleet as newer systems take years to come online.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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Well, they will still be flying until the 2040's or even the 2050's. That is a given

I wonder when will the B-52s eventually give up to the point that they could no longer be used again. And if that happens, what kind of bomber will fully replace them? Because it is clear that the B-21 will only be replacing the B-1s and the B-2s.

But there is possibility that the B-21s will also replace the B-52s themselves, and with its modularity, it may also be the next long-lasting bomber airframes of the US Air Force
 

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