SEPECAT Jaguar Export Prospects

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During the competition to replace the F-104 in European service, there was significant vacillation, particularly in Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, on which US competitor was preferred or even whether to buy a US aircraft at all and whether to perhaps instead procure the Mirage F1M-53. It was generally accepted that all 3 would purchase the same aircraft to achieve economies of scale but in the mid-late 70s there were various "wobbles". The overriding concern was that in the event that 1 of the 3 selected a different type, all 3 would likely have to start over as the decrease in order numbers would increase unit price, possibly prohibitively so. As a result, more than once, BAC offered the Jaguar as a less-capable but far less-costly alternative to the various US offerings. They were aided by various opposition parties and other influential concerns that favoured a lower-cost, less advanced and/or more European solution.

Ultimately, it came to nought. Below however, are some (hopefully) interesting US State Department transcripts concerning attempts to market the Jaguar in Europe and elsewhere.

Belgium:

End of the dream.....and yet....:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-13675/page/n1/mode/1up
Not a serious competitor but....
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-32378/mode/1up
Belgian Jaguar in exchange for participation in future Jaguar exports & MRCA:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-133873/mode/1up
Jaguar in a hi-lo mix and "transforming" Mirages:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-207255/mode/1up
Netherlands still considering Jaguar:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1973-117064/mode/1uphttps://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1975-89061/mode/1up
Denmark:
https://archive.org/details/StateDeptcable1975-13761/mode/1uphttps://archive.org/details/StateDeptcable1975-13774/page/n1/mode/1up?q=jaguar
Some other prospects:

Egypt wanted co-production:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1975-259009/page/n2/mode/1up?q=jaguar
Potential Iraqi expression of interest:
https://archive.org/details/StateDeptcable1977-76484/mode/1up
Low price offer for Kuwaiti Jaguars:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-45259/page/n9/mode/1up
The Jaguar has beaten out the A-7 on price grounds ...so let's offer the F-14 instead?!!!
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-45258/mode/1up?q=jaguar
Turkish interest:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-279965/mode/1up
...and for fun, India refused Jaguar (I bet that sticks):
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1975-94169/mode/1up?q=jaguar
 
I am there in Brit-bashing of la France perfide, dumping AFVG...and, I had thought, Jaguar M. But I was in the MN Aviation Museum, Rochefort last week, where an ex-SuE pilot was on hand to guide. He told me he had been a colleague of the M test pilot, who wrote up in the sense: a bunch of fixable probs, but pain/time to do so. Where an upgrade of E.IV could use (some) extant airframes, so why bother?

So, I'll take that and purge Jag M from the charge sheet. That leaves Lynx (same Mus has an FN example, they took 43 for small ships, but Army resiled from 2/67 intent to buy 150 for the battlefield), Martel (same Mus has one: history suggests neither team did well), and AFVG!
 
alertken said:
He told me he had been a colleague of the M test pilot, who wrote up in the sense: a bunch of fixable probs, but pain/time to do so. Where an upgrade of E.IV could use (some) extant airframes, so why bother?
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I believe what really tilted the decision in favor of the Super Etendard, and not often mentioned, was the critical question of the avionics suite.

The COMAERO history goes into great length about the sorry state of French avionics in the early 70s, and especially the shock of the Swiss tactical support competition which revealed how backwards the Mirage Milan’s Nav/Attack suite was compared to the A-7 Corsair. Plus the need for an anti-ship capable radar to pair up with the Exocet.

Dassault’s export success was potentially on the line and the French Navy’s program was the only immediate opportunity to fix it, so this killed the A-7 and A-4 options (even if some in the Aéronavale may have favored those). The final choice of Super Etendard over Jaguar M then came down to the best way to help Dassault close its gap, as any avionics integrated on the SuE could be more easily ported over to the Mirage series.

There were other consideration of course, but I’m convinced this is what decided things at the MoD / DGA level.
 
snippets via Air Pictorial / Air Enthusiast / Air International news items ...

Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Spain, request for information, September 1966

Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Belgium including possible part build, September 1966

Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for SAAF., September 1966

Possible Export ?, Jaguar T.2 for Japan ? ... Flying Review International, March 1969

Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Egypt (inc. Harrier, Buccaneer & Hawk) June 1972

Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Pakistan via UK. loan, July 1976

Possible Exports ?, Jaguar for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Qatar, 1973 & Iraq, 1978
 

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As I'm currently writing a book on Jaguar I'll make some brief comments here.

alertken said:
He told me he had been a colleague of the M test pilot, who wrote up in the sense: a bunch of fixable probs, but pain/time to do so. Where an upgrade of E.IV could use (some) extant airframes, so why bother?
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H_K said:
I believe what really tilted the decision in favor of the Super Etendard, and not often mentioned, was the critical question of the avionics suite.
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The Jaguar M, I think, was largely canned due to its costs, but no doubt the avionics situation was a worry and its combat capability was not great (though no worse than A-4M). Cost was a huge factor, you must remember that Jaguar A, B, E, M, S were all different in what was meant to be a joint production plan. Every national change caused cost and worry for both sides. Buying the M forced the RAF to order more Jags to keep the plan even (200 each). So there was a lot at stake.
The Adour thrust issue was fixable but probably would never have been viably fixed while the French resolutely stuck to the Mk.102. The fatigue crack issue is probably also a red herring - the Jaguar had a ton of fatigue worries of various sorts throughout its life and all of them were sorted eventually (I suspect in an effort to save weight it was designed a bit on the lean side).
M. Dassault is often accused of wanting to kill Jaguar M. Well he had offered new-built Etendards while the development of the Jag was ongoing but he did also push for the big wing to be built and fitted for the next round of flight tests in 1973 (alas cancellation came first) so it seems that he wanted work to continue and had bought into the idea of fixing the Jag's shortcomings. It seems to me that he wanted three irons in the fire (JagM, F1M, SuperE), with three bets he couldn't lose could he?

TsrJoe said:
Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Spain, request for information, September 1966
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Yes they did request information, don't think it was anything serious though (i.e. they had no cash and were not even in NATO then).

TsrJoe said:
Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Belgium including possible part build, September 1966
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Yes this was a big discussion - a tripartie SEPECAT deal in effect. Same discussions also held with West Germany at the same time. Nobody else was ever considered for letting into the SEPECAT deal as a partner.

TsrJoe said:
Request for information / Possible Export ?, Jaguar for SAAF., September 1966
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They asked. Politics was dicey.

TsrJoe said:
Possible Export ?, Jaguar T.2 for Japan ? ... Flying Review International, March 1969
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Not sure what the make of this. A lot has been said about Japan refusing to pay the SEPECAT prices and going it alone with the T-2 clone. There is nothing on this in the files I've seen from Kew, complete silence on Japan (apart from one ref to licence-built Adours). Very odd.

TsrJoe said:
Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Egypt (inc. Harrier, Buccaneer & Hawk) June 1972
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Yes Sadat wanted something he could bomb Israel with if they ever threatened the Aswan Dam and other high profile targets. There was Libyan and Saudi money behind this too - a complicated web.

TsrJoe said:
Possible Export ?, Jaguar for Pakistan via UK. loan, July 1976
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New to me, given the extended Indian negotiations at the same time I would be sceptical.

TsrJoe said:
Possible Exports ?, Jaguar for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Qatar, 1973 & Iraq, 1978
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All were possibles. Sweet delicious petrodollars.
 
So, net, do we purge from the charge sheet of perfidy, that Dassault impeded valiant BAC's export efforts?

Ecuador bought both F-1 and Jag; as India took Jag Pak clearly could not; Kuwait ordered Jag then unordered: this is too complex for a simple assertion - Saudi Aid for KAF Lightnings, Saudi so crucial to BAC/BAe for Tornado.
Look down the other F-1 Users and it is not evident that Jag would have been better for any. Maybe Qatar?
 
There is a sense of uneasy partnership right from the start, perhaps Breguet had slightly more desire to be flexible (they more or less let BAC redesign chunks of their design), but there is always a sense that neither side was getting exactly what it wanted but that while they got something from it they continued to work together. Arguably the UK gained more than France.

All the export sales work came from BAC - they did all the running and of course the British Jaguar S and B were the export models.
Dassault certainly put up its Mirages (of all flavours) on the market - not always in direct competition (they did in Belgium and India), but the cut-price MAP F-5s and F-5Es were equally a serious sales competitor. The more rationale explanation is that since the Jaguar A wasn't the export model and Dassault didn't have to worry about the sales effort they simply washed their hands of the Jaguar (and unlike the French AF, it was the RAF who got lumbered with giving away production slots and meeting training commitments for the buyers). And who can blame them? BAC was doing the donkey work and Dassault needed to sell Mirages to keep in business so of course both partners went their own way.

Quite often the lack of finance to fund the purchases hampered the sales more than direct competition or even political objections.
I don't think BAC were fools to think they had a big seller on their hands, they did fairly well considering Jaguar was a fairly niche aircraft and once the Anglo-French production was completed there was little impetus to keep the lines open so Jaguar had a narrow window in which to garner sales.
 
Hood said:
(Referring to Jag T.2 for Japan)
Not sure what the make of this. A lot has been said about Japan refusing to pay the SEPECAT prices and going it alone with the T-2 clone. There is nothing on this in the files I've seen from Kew, complete silence on Japan (apart from one ref to licence-built Adours). Very odd.
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I could see prices being a factor, but probably key was the Japanese desire to keep their aviation industry ticking along, and an indigenous trainer/fighter keeps the designers busy, and up-to-date.
 
starviking said:
I could see prices being a factor, but probably key was the Japanese desire to keep their aviation industry ticking along, and an indigenous trainer/fighter keeps the designers busy, and up-to-date.
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I can definitely see that being an argument. Might even be true.
 
Was there anything formal about Australia's interest? Did it get as far as a request for information?
 
Volkodav said:
Was there anything formal about Australia's interest? Did it get as far as a request for information?
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SEPECAT briefed the RAAF in 1966 but nothing came of that and its probable the briefing was a speculative sales pitch from the manufacturer. When the RFI was issued for the Tactical Fighter Force Requirement in 1976, BAe decided to offer the Tornado rather than the Jaguar given the strong competition from the General Dynamics YF-16 and Northrop YF-17.
 
Hood said:
SEPECAT briefed the RAAF in 1966 but nothing came of that and its probable the briefing was a speculative sales pitch from the manufacturer. When the RFI was issued for the Tactical Fighter Force Requirement in 1976, BAe decided to offer the Tornado rather than the Jaguar given the strong competition from the General Dynamics YF-16 and Northrop YF-17.
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Thanks.

I recalled an article referencing a RAAF requirement for 100 Jaguars, but around the same time, there were discussions on the CAC supersonic LIFT (CAC101?), local manufacture of the Mirage F1, manufacture of the Hawk, acquisition of F-4 instead of F-111, retaining the F-4s leased to cover the late delivery of the F-111, acquisition of 50 F-15 etc.

It was a mess of ideas. I recall reading it all, but how much was official, I have no idea.
 
Hood said:
There were certainly serious discussions on this, but the RAAF decided to stick with the Macchi 326 at that time.
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That was a regular occurrence following Suharto's seizure of power in Indonesia; it removed the perceived threat from the north and allowed Australia to dramatically reduce defence spending. Thanks, and I'm glad this thread popped up again. It reminded me to order your book for my wife to give me for my birthday.

Off topic for this thread, but it's a common thing for politicians to base defence strategy on perceived threats, while it should be set on geography and demographics. Politics and public sentiment change, which means your friends can become your enemies and vice versa, while geography, and demographics dictate where an arising threat can possibly come from.
 
Deleted member 2278 said:
...

Turkish interest:
https://archive.org/details/State-Dept-cable-1974-279965/mode/1up
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Regarding the Turkish interest: The first contact between the Turkish government and BAC was made in February 1973 and BAC submitted a detailed licensed production offer in July 1975.

The offer covered licensed production of a total of 200 aircraft (180 Jaguar S and 20 Jaguar B) in three phases over 9 years. The first phase was assembly of 30 aircraft and Turkish content would incrementally increase in consecutive phases.

During that time, Ankara was also considering off-the-shelf purchase of 24 Jaguars, which would make a total of 224 jets, if the two deals were materialized. So, why didn't they? Budget...
 
orko_8 said:
The offer covered licensed production of a total of 200 aircraft (180 Jaguar S and 20 Jaguar B) in three phases over 9 years. The first phase was assembly of 30 aircraft and Turkish content would incrementally increase in consecutive phases.
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Interesting, not something that I've come across before. Do you have a source for this?
 
Excellent, that proposal is something that I hadn't come across when I wrote my book.
 

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