Pakistan threatens to buy Russian or Chinese jets

Triton said:
"Pakistan threatens to buy Russian or Chinese jets in spat with US"
by Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and Victor Mallet in New Delhi
May 4, 2016

Source:
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The article is sitting behind a pay wall.

As you will be aware Pakistan already buys fighters from China, and an eventual J-10 purchase has been long rumoured.
Despite it close relationship with India, Russia has already sold military equipment to Pakistan such as helicopters and (indirectly via China) the engines for its joint fighter project with China.

In this context would be interesting to see if Russia would actually sell Su-30 derivatives to Pakistan, and what that would indicate about the state of Russia's relationship with India (threat of a such a sale a way for Russia to put pressure on India re: their version of the T-50?).

And then again China could always sell Pakistan its "all Chinese" Flanker derivatives (which could cause friction with Russia).

And then again could all be a bluff by Pakistan to get a few more F-16s...... :)
 
China will not be selling any flanker variants to anyone, including Pakistan. That's the deal they've made with Russia.

Options left to Pakistan are more jf17 instead, which is something they could do at any time but wanting a larger plane as well is benefitial, hence f16. So i'd say even without future f16 they will still want to add something else alongside their jf17.

Chinese J10 is an option, especially now that we're seeing it more and more often flown with chinese engine. It might be just a few years away.

Mig29m is also an option, with the ruble as low as it is - it's a cheap option and offers some commonality with engines (jf17 and mig29 both sharing same family of engine)

Modern flankers are possible but they're also more expensive (possibly more than j10, even with the low ruble).

There might be more options a decade down the road but its too far away to talk about them.

In my opinion, it's a fight between mig29m and some export variant of j10.
 
  • 2019: Pakistan and India have cross border skirmishes over Kashmir.
    • PAF shoots down IAF MiG-21 inside Pakistani airspace using a F-16 and AIM-120 combo (confirmed).
    • Pakistan claims to shoot down IAF Su-30MKI inside Indian airspace (disputed / unconfirmed).
  • 2020: First Dassault Rafales arrive in India.
  • 2022: First Chengdu J-10Cs arrive in Pakistan.
  • 2024: PAF uses J-10C in some capacity in airstrikes against Iran.
  • 2025: Pakistan and India have cross border skirmishes over Kashmir.
    • Pakistan claims to shoot down 3 * IAF Dassault Rafales inside India using J-10C and PL15 combo (disputed / unconfirmed).
    • Pakistan claims to shoot down IAF Su-30MKI inside Indian airspace (disputed / unconfirmed).
    • Pakistan claims to shoot down IAF MiG-29 inside Indian airspace (disputed / unconfirmed).
      • Images start surfacing the internet that suggest at least 1 Dassault Rafale crash / shoot down inside India.
      • Less clear images start surfacing the internet that suggest some possibility of a Su-30MKI or MiG-21 crash inside India.
      • Western and Indian news suggest the crash / downing of 1-4 jets inside India.
      • Conversations on internet suggest the possible use of Chinese HQ-9 SAM system by Pakistan in some capacity.
 
Hypothetically speaking, if they got the F-16V the result would probably be similar. Since they only have C5 or C7 variant of 120 they’d have to get much closer to the border though.
 
siegecrossbow said:
Hypothetically speaking, if they got the F-16V the result would probably be similar. Since they only have C5 or C7 variant of 120 they’d have to get much closer to the border though.
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I think PAF only has C5, not C7 (source: forums and YouTube LOL).

There's this on going debate of whether PAF can use their F-16 against India or not. I've heard there are US contractors on site at PAF F-16 bases that very closely monitor and restrict PAF access to F-16 (again, source: forums and YouTube LOL). Now, PAF did use a F-16 and AIM-120 combo to shoot down atleast one MiG-21 during 2019. I do not know the circumstances of that usage either.
I'm not sure if PAF's experience on F-16 since the 1980s would have an effect on the outcome or not.

It would also depend on the number of F-16V. Are we considering all 70-ish PAF F-16 to be upgraded to F-16V or are we considering around one additional squadron of F-16V on top of PAF's existing F-16 fleet (mix of MLUs and blk 50)?

I also have a question about if PAF's SAAB 2000 fleet can guide PL15 or AIM-120? If yes, that could possibly equalize the effect?

I saw some YouTube video that claimed PAF's superior numbers of aew&c assisting in getting the kills. Does the aew&c factor render the F-16 Blk 52 vs Rafale or J-10 vs Rafale or F-16V vs Rafale arguments pointless?
 
The only compliment I would give to the KAAN fighter is at least it has a better chance being operational before India gets the AMCA operational.
 
Colt_Six_Nine said:
I think PAF only has C5, not C7 (source: forums and YouTube LOL).

There's this on going debate of whether PAF can use their F-16 against India or not. I've heard there are US contractors on site at PAF F-16 bases that very closely monitor and restrict PAF access to F-16 (again, source: forums and YouTube LOL). Now, PAF did use a F-16 and AIM-120 combo to shoot down atleast one MiG-21 during 2019. I do not know the circumstances of that usage either.
I'm not sure if PAF's experience on F-16 since the 1980s would have an effect on the outcome or not.

It would also depend on the number of F-16V. Are we considering all 70-ish PAF F-16 to be upgraded to F-16V or are we considering around one additional squadron of F-16V on top of PAF's existing F-16 fleet (mix of MLUs and blk 50)?

I also have a question about if PAF's SAAB 2000 fleet can guide PL15 or AIM-120? If yes, that could possibly equalize the effect?

I saw some YouTube video that claimed PAF's superior numbers of aew&c assisting in getting the kills. Does the aew&c factor render the F-16 Blk 52 vs Rafale or J-10 vs Rafale or F-16V vs Rafale arguments pointless?
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PL-15 not only has dual data link with fighter/AWAC but can be guided by Beidou (China’s GPS equivalent). This is confirmed by an AVIC placard from Zhuhai Airshow 2022.
 
SUPER=BUG said:
PL15 can definitely do it, but what about PL15E?
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I'd like to believe that PAF has regular PL15 (even though some pieces found in India have PL15E as a part of the serial #)... China only benefits from a stronger PAF. China might likely get an export order out of the whole J10C/Rafale thing.
 
Colt_Six_Nine said:
I'd like to believe that PAF has regular PL15 (even though some pieces found in India have PL15E as a part of the serial #)... China only benefits from a stronger PAF. China might likely get an export order out of the whole J10C/Rafale thing.
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Personally, I prefer the export version of the PL15E which has many variants that can be configured based on user needs. I believe that the PL15E used this time should be considered one of the better versions. It is inherently unreasonable for China to send the domestically used PL15 abroad, as the Pakistan Air Force system is not yet capable of fully utilizing the range advantages of the PL15. In other words, the PL15 may not demonstrate better advantages in the hands of the Pakistan Air Force compared to the PL15E.
 
SUPER=BUG said:
Yes, you are right. ...View attachment 769689
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Based on a quick Google search for the Rafale crash site near Bathinda. The named village is about 69km (nice) from the border.
I'm not sure why IAF was flying so close to the border. All target sites from their initial strike into Pakistan are less than 100km from the border - shouldn't they have remained farther back?
1747014878438.png
 
Colt_Six_Nine said:
Based on a quick Google search for the Rafale crash site near Bathinda. The named village is about 69km (nice) from the border.
I'm not sure why IAF was flying so close to the border. All target sites from their initial strike into Pakistan are less than 100km from the border - shouldn't they have remained farther back?
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AASM use on numerous individual targets near LOC?
 
siegecrossbow said:
Hypothetically speaking, if they got the F-16V the result would probably be similar. Since they only have C5 or C7 variant of 120 they’d have to get much closer to the border though.
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The biggest disadvantage IAF has against PAF is tgeir NCW capability, especially on the TDL side. I've seen Indian nationalists/military enthusiasts on Indian forums claiming that their NCW readiness and capability is better than NATO, which couldn't be further from truth.

Their main way of C2 is ground based regional IACCS nodes, from which the airborne fighters are usually commanded via V/UHF voice comms, even to this day. Their AEW&C ppatforms? Same story. First downlink to IACCS. Never the case for NATO since Link-16 will do the job instead. They don't have Link-16-esque general multipurpose waveform/J-series-like general multipurpose message format TDL yet, and their first similar system, the Vayu Link was only revealed for the first time in 2023.

Their current airborne TDL system, the L band Operational Data Link is only a one way system, so it could only be uses by the C2 nodes like the NETRA AEW&C to broadcast airspace picture and track data to the fighter jets, but cannot be used to create channel-wide airspace picture as with MIDS-based Link-16. Capability-wise, this is very similar to how fighters equipped with JTIDS Class-2 terminals operated in the 90s.

Most importantly, none of these are integrated on IAF Rafales.

Conversely, PAF uses both the Link-16, which connects their assets of western origin, and Link-17, their own TDL system used to connect Chinese origin assets. The two data links are connected through gateways on C2 nodes.

Safe to say, that from operational capability perspective, there is almost a 30 year gap between PAF and IAF NCW readiness. Even if PAF had F-16 block 72 aircrafts instead of J-10CEs their inherent SA advantage would not have changed. Same story for India. Even if they procured 100+ Rafales as originally envisioned for the MRCA, and had a all-rafale strije package in the latest conflict, without a credible data linking capability, you'd never be able to use those Rafales to their fullest extent.
 
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