Register here

Author Topic: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA  (Read 768742 times)

Offline totoro

  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 238
    • Binkov's Battlegrounds
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2745 on: December 03, 2018, 03:07:29 am »

3. Many elements of the programme (or perhaps even the whole programme) is being clandestinely developed in great secrecy and only to be unveiled much later when it is closer to its first flight.

This seems quite unlikely to me. In this day and age it is VERY hard to keep such complex and expensive programs secret. Stuff like smaller programes, like spy drones (RQ-180 or whatever it's really called) may somehow slip through, but even a strategic asset like the B-21 is not secret. Sure, technical details about it are, but US couldn't have managed the whole program to be developed in secrecy, in the way that B-2 was decades ago.

That being said, various parties within US MIC and DoD have been talking it up how protracted development cycles must be broken and how they hope to achieve that with the new fighter. So it MAY not be impossible that we suddenly get a very speedy development going on. Like 2020 program definition, 2021 competition start, 2025 winner chosen (among flying demonstrators) and 5-6 years to get the actual plane to some sort of IOC, even if it's rushed into service, despite many initial shortcomings to be solved later on. All the milestones are purely illustrative. I've no info that the program requirements will indeed get defined in 2020.

www.youtube.com/c/binkovsbattlegrounds - military analysis videos

Offline LowObservable

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 2082
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2746 on: December 04, 2018, 06:52:44 am »
To get things back on track, there's been a question that's been nagging at the back of my mind for a while now. Is there any consensus in the community as to when PCA/NGAD etc is meant to be introduced?

Ha. Anyone who knows the answer to that one is not going to give it away for free.

I'm not sure that there is an answer. There are aspirations, plans and some programs but not a lot of indications that the people who matter agree on what should happen to them.

Offline Blitzo

  • CLEARANCE: Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 360
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2747 on: December 04, 2018, 05:16:26 pm »
To get things back on track, there's been a question that's been nagging at the back of my mind for a while now. Is there any consensus in the community as to when PCA/NGAD etc is meant to be introduced?

Ha. Anyone who knows the answer to that one is not going to give it away for free.

I'm not sure that there is an answer. There are aspirations, plans and some programs but not a lot of indications that the people who matter agree on what should happen to them.

Oh yeah, I wasn't necessarily fishing for any kind of "official" date, but rather if the community so far had an "agreed upon" period from what we know publicly.

Offline hesham

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 22310
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2748 on: December 11, 2018, 05:10:34 am »
I remember reading a paper of RAND about low observable aircraft designs, but can only google this
www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA314256

The paper I referred to is similar, but contains more designs. And it is not only about fighter but bomber (IIRC). It also compares trade off between low observable and agility. But I can not google it. Does anyone have a clue about it?

From the same source.

Offline Sundog

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 2501
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2749 on: December 11, 2018, 10:28:58 am »
Isn't that last one one of Raymer's designs for a JSF study?

Offline flateric

  • Deputy Administrator
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ****
  • Posts: 8572
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2750 on: December 11, 2018, 01:09:09 pm »
Isn't that last one one of Raymer's designs for a JSF study?
This is Raymer's design for notional Next Generation Attack Fighter (NGAF) study of Rand Corp. (1993-1996)


"There are many disbelievers in
stealth, more than a few of them truly technically ignorant and proud of it." Sherm Mullin, Skunk Works

Offline Sundog

  • Senior Member
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • **
  • Posts: 2501
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2751 on: December 11, 2018, 07:15:17 pm »
Isn't that last one one of Raymer's designs for a JSF study?
This is Raymer's design for notional Next Generation Attack Fighter (NGAF) study of Rand Corp. (1993-1996)

Ahh, yes, NGAF, I forgot about that program. There were so many leading up to the JSF. ;)

Offline flateric

  • Deputy Administrator
  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ****
  • Posts: 8572
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2752 on: December 11, 2018, 09:47:10 pm »
NGAF wasn't a 'program'. This was an internal RAND study.
That's clearly explained in document posted above.
"There are many disbelievers in
stealth, more than a few of them truly technically ignorant and proud of it." Sherm Mullin, Skunk Works

Offline bobbymike

  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ***
  • Posts: 8509
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2753 on: December 19, 2018, 06:40:03 am »
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/12/14/budget-watchdogs-warn-of-expensive-price-tag-for-next-air-force-fighter/?utm_campaign=Socialflow+DFN&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1eWH7AkjDosCbJXhhj_1LSKY_0n_faTZ7D192Evv-WFd22grMhFyex4x4

Quote

WASHINGTON — A next-generation air superiority jet for the U.S. Air Force, known by the service as Penetrating Counter Air, could cost about $300 million in 2018 dollars per plane, the Congressional Budget Office states in a new study.

At that price, PCA would be more than three times that of the average F-35A jet, which is set at about $94 million to capture both the expense of early production lots and the decline in cost as the production rate increases, according the report, which predicts the cost of replacing the Air Force’s aircraft inventory from now until 2050.

This sum, while not an official cost estimate from the Pentagon, represents the first time a government entity has weighed in on the potential price tag for PCA.
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

Charles W. Eliot

Offline bring_it_on

  • CLEARANCE: Top Secret
  • ***
  • Posts: 1812
  • I really should change my personal text
Re: USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA
« Reply #2754 on: December 25, 2018, 09:26:13 am »
To get things back on track, there's been a question that's been nagging at the back of my mind for a while now. Is there any consensus in the community as to when PCA/NGAD etc is meant to be introduced?

They Navy is sticking to its "2030/31" time frame though based on the FY19 budget, the funding does not really line up with that although they could be getting ready to ramp up spending plans starting FY20. The CNO again reiterated 2030 as the in service entry point..

It is also interesting that the Navy is now calling the FA-XX  NGAD as well.

Quote
By the end of 2019, identify requirements across the family of systems to replace the F/A-18E/F and EA-18G by 2030.

https://news.usni.org/2018/12/17/cno-richardson-calls-aggressive-timelines-new-weapons-operational-concepts-updated-navy-design
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 09:28:50 am by bring_it_on »
Old radar types never die; they just phased array - Unknown