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Author Topic: Syria Strike 14th April 2018  (Read 1727 times)

Offline NeilChapman

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #30 on: April 16, 2018, 03:20:17 pm »
How about if skip the policy merits, long term implications, politics, discussion of legality etc.

...and just focus on the technical analysis? The thread will last longer.


It was reported that "most" of the weapons hit their targets.  Any word on which ones did not?


Offline stealthflanker

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #31 on: April 16, 2018, 03:34:17 pm »
Hmm. This is from twitter but well, this one is quite reliable i think. 

https://twitter.com/WaelAlRussi/status/985497416865603584

Detection range of like 5-20 km. This looks consistent with low RCS target and the flight altitude is just what it is given mountainous nature of Syria.

It's rather pointless tho to debate over numbers, as it is crystal clear that Syrian AD is saturated. even they really got 71 missiles 30 made in and just do their intended job in leveling the building and complete mission. 

Offline bring_it_on

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #32 on: April 16, 2018, 04:06:35 pm »
Love when you tried to slip in "even if 30 made it". Trouble is, given the regime propaganda I'm sure they would have loved to show off dozens of downed missiles especially from that one operator who is claimed to have shot down 16 by himself.

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This is from twitter but well, this one is quite reliable i think. 

Reliable? It shows a generic image of a defense system and a bunch of data about detection range and altitudes. Another account on Twitter can totally change those numbers and the result would be just about as "reliable" as this. If you wish to engage in an evidence-based discussion, do indulge but do note that the tweet you have posted lacks any merits or evidence from an account/user whose personal opinions and ideology are crystal clear from a cursory look at his feed. Since this is a forum that isn't interested in political ideological discussions, it would be worthwile to post evidence that supports a particular argument and advances discussions about the technical assessment of these strikes. For example, if you are trying to analyze whether 70+ missiles were shot down, evidence supporting that via missile debris, the wreckage will be a good data-point to introduce here. A random tweet, or an image of a launcher that shows two missing missiles is not anything that should fly with any reasonable observer.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 04:14:43 pm by bring_it_on »
Old radar types never die; they just phased array - Unknown

Offline stealthflanker

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #33 on: April 16, 2018, 05:38:40 pm »
Love when you tried to slip in "even if 30 made it". Trouble is, given the regime propaganda I'm sure they would have loved to show off dozens of downed missiles especially from that one operator who is claimed to have shot down 16 by himself.
 

And i don't know what else to say O-o Im talking about how futile it is to discuss "how many" If what was count is target destroyed.  They can exaggerate anything they want but if what people see is not there then.

Quote
Reliable? It shows a generic image of a defense system and a bunch of data about detection range and altitudes. Another account on Twitter can totally change those numbers and the result would be just about as "reliable" as this. If you wish to engage in an evidence-based discussion, do indulge but do note that the tweet you have posted lacks any merits or evidence from an account/user whose personal opinions and ideology are crystal clear from a cursory look at his feed. Since this is a forum that isn't interested in political ideological discussions, it would be worthwile to post evidence that supports a particular argument and advances discussions about the technical assessment of these strikes. For example, if you are trying to analyze whether 70+ missiles were shot down, evidence supporting that via missile debris, the wreckage will be a good data-point to introduce here. A random tweet, or an image of a launcher that shows two missing missiles is not anything that should fly with any reasonable observer.

Well those i found so far.  The evidence from Syria AD itself is rare and more than often i have to dig in to twitters and some other unusual source and present it.  Would love to be there myself but i can't.   And the debris image is also from twitter and no real way to assess whether it's taken from impact or it was hit by AD missile. 

Offline bring_it_on

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #34 on: April 16, 2018, 05:48:11 pm »
Apparently, if some reports are to be believed, one Air-Defense operator is responsible for shooting down 16 missiles  ???. So the regime wants to do a press-release (whatever that looks like provided these reports represent the position of the regime) how hard will it be to collect wreckage from those 16 missiles at this site and some 55 other missiles that they claim to have shot down? I would also advise being careful taking tweets/reports seriously. Here is something I encountered from an alleged reporter who apparently is considered a qualified expert reporter in the A&D media.
 
« Last Edit: April 17, 2018, 02:56:15 am by bring_it_on »
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Offline fredymac

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #35 on: April 17, 2018, 02:50:53 am »
US post attack summary.  Go to 4:50 for assessment of missile success rate and Syrian air defense response.


Offline bring_it_on

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Re: Syria Strike 14th April 2018
« Reply #36 on: April 17, 2018, 05:03:11 am »

And i don't know what else to say O-o Im talking about how futile it is to discuss "how many" If what was count is target destroyed.  They can exaggerate anything they want but if what people see is not there then.

That is why I thought it was rather strange for you to first claim it was pointless  to talk about numbers and then try to introduce a "number" in the very next sentence. Similarly, the tweet that you chose to present also imho lacked anything that can be used as supporting evidence to advance a particular narrative and is accompanied by no more or no less proof of another claim made that one operator alone is responsible for downing 16 missiles. It is one thing to try to establish a particular narrative and justify it based on evidence, yet another to push out claims that lack any sort of corroborating evidence.

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Four Outlandish Russian Ministry of Defense Claims About The Syrian Missile Raid
« Last Edit: April 17, 2018, 05:08:27 am by bring_it_on »
Old radar types never die; they just phased array - Unknown

Offline bring_it_on

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Old radar types never die; they just phased array - Unknown