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Author Topic: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.  (Read 103278 times)

Offline kaiserd

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1020 on: August 12, 2017, 01:47:16 am »
Nothing to worry about anymore :
Quote
Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump
My first order as President was to renovate and modernize our nuclear arsenal. It is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before....
13:56 - 9. Aug. 2017

Yeah, I saw that and rolled my eyes.  At BEST he has ensured the "development" programs will continue to roll along for the next four years.  In the meantime Russia, China, North Korea, and others will race ahead.

Are you saying El Presidente is not telling the truth... ::) ;D
That should be obvious to anybody interested in the matter.
I posted it because i think it is relevant in the discussion on renewing the US nuclear deterrent.
These statements will not help in getting the $$$ and political will to proceed with it.

I believe in deterrence and as a person living in a NATO country I'm well aware who is my nuclear deterrence sugar daddy.
So it matters to me that the US has lost it's nuclear industrial base...

Specifically on this topic of nuclear deterrence it appears that the current US President neither understands nor cares about the reality of the need for renovation of the US nuclear infrastructure, his interests appear to be to pander to his bellicose nationalist base and feed his own insatiable ego.
Similarly his current comments around North Korea are not primary intended for North Korean consumption but for his base and his own self worth.
While North Korea are past masters of "we're crazy, don't mess with us" outrageous statements and are very unlikely to be particularly perturbed or impacted (for good or ill) by the Presidents comments; the greater risk associated with his comments is that Trump will make a decision trap for himself re: his base and his own large but fragile ego.
While I support the concept of nuclear deterrence times like this do make you realise how much it relies on the quality, stability and sanity of the people involved, and its vulnerability to inevitable human weakness.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 01:52:16 am by kaiserd »

Online bobbymike

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1021 on: August 12, 2017, 08:38:17 am »
Posted to remind some history didn't start January 20, 2017

"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Offline sferrin

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1022 on: August 12, 2017, 09:19:49 am »
How about turning down the antagonism to the rest of the world and actually working to co-operate to actually cure the world's problems?  It's not all the US's fault, I admit but it does contribute, now particularly under Trump it's own degree of hubris.  A hubris some here appear to believe is natural and right when the rest of the world gets annoyed and rather pissed off at it.  The US is not the ruler of the world.   Trump needs to realise that and to pull his head in a great deal.  Some real humility would achieve far more than proclaiming all the time how great the US is.  ::)

Hey, I'm on your side here.  IMO the US should bring all its forces and interest back from Europe and let them fend for themselves, since they say they hate us so much anyway.  As for "humility" I'm more for "talk softly and carry a big stick" rather than the Obamaesque "kow-tow to everybody and their dog in a grand appeasement effort".   If other countries don't like that approach, well. . .most of us in the US don't really care.  Deal with it.
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline kaiserd

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1023 on: August 12, 2017, 10:26:37 am »
How about turning down the antagonism to the rest of the world and actually working to co-operate to actually cure the world's problems?  It's not all the US's fault, I admit but it does contribute, now particularly under Trump it's own degree of hubris.  A hubris some here appear to believe is natural and right when the rest of the world gets annoyed and rather pissed off at it.  The US is not the ruler of the world.   Trump needs to realise that and to pull his head in a great deal.  Some real humility would achieve far more than proclaiming all the time how great the US is.  ::)

Hey, I'm on your side here.  IMO the US should bring all its forces and interest back from Europe and let them fend for themselves, since they say they hate us so much anyway.  As for "humility" I'm more for "talk softly and carry a big stick" rather than the Obamaesque "kow-tow to everybody and their dog in a grand appeasement effort".   If other countries don't like that approach, well. . .most of us in the US don't really care.  Deal with it.

So you are advocating "abandoning" Europe to Russia, and presumably Asia to China, and all other international allies and commitments, with the US committing military, political and economic suicide in the name of your particular brand of American nationalism.
"America First" indeed.... Charles Lindbergh would be proud.
Just for the record you know your advocating exactly the policies of pre-World War 2 appeasers and isolationists, right? But Obama is the appeaser... right?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 03:50:11 pm by kaiserd »

Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1024 on: August 13, 2017, 06:29:17 pm »
How about turning down the antagonism to the rest of the world and actually working to co-operate to actually cure the world's problems?  It's not all the US's fault, I admit but it does contribute, now particularly under Trump it's own degree of hubris.  A hubris some here appear to believe is natural and right when the rest of the world gets annoyed and rather pissed off at it.  The US is not the ruler of the world.   Trump needs to realise that and to pull his head in a great deal.  Some real humility would achieve far more than proclaiming all the time how great the US is.  ::)

Hey, I'm on your side here.  IMO the US should bring all its forces and interest back from Europe and let them fend for themselves, since they say they hate us so much anyway.  As for "humility" I'm more for "talk softly and carry a big stick" rather than the Obamaesque "kow-tow to everybody and their dog in a grand appeasement effort".   If other countries don't like that approach, well. . .most of us in the US don't really care.  Deal with it.

Europe? Who cares?  I don't 'cause I don't live there.  In reality, some Europeans might hate you, many might dislike you because of American antics and hubris.  The majority tolerate you as a necessary evil.  The problem is that what you believe makes America safer, has as we have seen, not made the rest of the world safer.   So, why then are you surprised when people look at the antics of the present incumbent of  the Oval Office and wonder if he understands that the world does not just consist of the United States.   His actions, his speeches have a bearing far outside the US population.   

America is great.  America is safe.   Instead of blundering around using words he doesn't seem to understand or even want to understand, he would be better to be quiet and learn.   Diplomacy does not consist of a big stick and proclaiming your readiness to use it.  It consists of quiet words, spoken into the ears of people in power, backed with a big stick, held in the background and rarely used.  America possesses more nuclear weapons than any other nations.  How often do you need to blow the rest of the world up?   Deterrence is about the implied threat of using nuclear weapons, it's not about running 'round like a frightened little boy proclaiming that you're going to use nuclear weapons tomorrow simply 'cause some would be bully has created the means to attack one or two of your cities.

You and the US President need to learn to be a little more stoic in your attitudes.   The world will not end tomorrow, nor will the USA be forced to do what other nation's say, simply because they have some nuclear warheads.   Your nation survived 45 years with the threat.   Learn to live with it again.

Online bobbymike

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"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Online bobbymike

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"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Offline Pioneer

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1027 on: August 16, 2017, 05:17:05 am »
Sorry, can't help but think and reflect, that with the American self-obsession with its self-built ideology of exceptionalism, that it hasn't sawed it's own problem in regards of containing, let alone curtailing North Korea's nuclear arsenal and strategy, with their arrogant isolation and denomination of both Russia, and especially  the PRC.
It explicitly clear that the issue with Nth Korea can not and will not be fixed unless both Russia and China are behind such a measure.
So long as the U.S. sees and seems it is their righteous place to be the only World Power, then it stand too reason that Russia and China will continue to prop up Nth Korea, as a thorn in America's side. Ironically, just as Sun Tzu's Art of War dictates.

Regards
Pioneer

"So long as the U.S. sees and seems it is their righteous place to be the only World Power"

Any other nation that was on top would work to STAY there.  That's just common sense.  Besides, would you really prefer China or Russia be in the US's position?

Thanks for your feedback sferrin. ;)

Regards
Pioneer






















And remember…remember the glory is not the exhortation of war, but the exhortation of man.
Mans nobility, made transcendent in the fiery crucible of war.
Faithfulness and fortitude.
Gentleness and compassion.
I am honored to be your brother.”

— Lt Col Ralph Honner DSO M

Offline Void

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1028 on: August 16, 2017, 10:46:45 am »
Europe? Who cares?  I don't 'cause I don't live there.  In reality, some Europeans might hate you, many might dislike you because of American antics and hubris.  The majority tolerate you as a necessary evil.  The problem is that what you believe makes America safer, has as we have seen, not made the rest of the world safer.   So, why then are you surprised when people look at the antics of the present incumbent of  the Oval Office and wonder if he understands that the world does not just consist of the United States.   His actions, his speeches have a bearing far outside the US population.   

America is great.  America is safe.   Instead of blundering around using words he doesn't seem to understand or even want to understand, he would be better to be quiet and learn.   Diplomacy does not consist of a big stick and proclaiming your readiness to use it.  It consists of quiet words, spoken into the ears of people in power, backed with a big stick, held in the background and rarely used.  America possesses more nuclear weapons than any other nations.  How often do you need to blow the rest of the world up?   Deterrence is about the implied threat of using nuclear weapons, it's not about running 'round like a frightened little boy proclaiming that you're going to use nuclear weapons tomorrow simply 'cause some would be bully has created the means to attack one or two of your cities.

You and the US President need to learn to be a little more stoic in your attitudes.   The world will not end tomorrow, nor will the USA be forced to do what other nation's say, simply because they have some nuclear warheads.   Your nation survived 45 years with the threat.   Learn to live with it again.

Deterrence consists of credible capability and a credible will, nothing more or less. The style is irrelevant. Humility and learning to live with threats is the attitude of declining powers or nations which were never powers. The threat of the Soviet Union to America was accepted only because the Soviet Union was sufficiently strong direct confrontation was too dangerous. America as of yet is only declining in relative terms and quite slowly. If America tried to be humble the rest of world would sense a trap.

Whether or not countries will co-operate with America depends entirely on their interests and not at all on America's attitude. All other nations are hyper conscious of their weakness compared to America and so, of course, America does tend to vex them in all it does. But the reality of American strength cannot be denied and no conciliatory gestures or rhetoric can change this.

Online bobbymike

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"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Online bobbymike

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1030 on: August 16, 2017, 09:00:09 pm »
GAO Nuclear Command And Control

https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/686599.pdf
"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1031 on: August 17, 2017, 12:54:16 am »
Deterrence consists of credible capability and a credible will, nothing more or less. The style is irrelevant.

To the concept of deterrence?  Perhaps.  To how people accept that concept, I would suggest it is very much another matter.   You can be cruel and tyrannical but you won't win any supporters amongst the majority of the world's population as they feel your boot being ground into their face.  The US has always tried to get people to accept it and even perhaps like it, until the last few decades.   The fUSSR didn't care overly much if you liked them, just that you feared their response.

What you need to do is look at the problem from outside the US (or Canadian) part of the paradigm.  No one likes living in fear.  No one likes being threatened by people who claim to be protecting them.

Quote
Humility and learning to live with threats is the attitude of declining powers or nations which were never powers.


So, we should all aspire to lord it over everybody else, so that we can proclaim that we are free?  Do you realise how arrogant that sounds to those people who don't want to aspire to threaten their neighbours?

Quote
The threat of the Soviet Union to America was accepted only because the Soviet Union was sufficiently strong direct confrontation was too dangerous. America as of yet is only declining in relative terms and quite slowly. If America tried to be humble the rest of world would sense a trap.

Funny, the world didn't sense a trap when Bush senior was in power or Clinton or Carter or Obama were in power.  They sensed a calm, adult hand was in control.  A person who would react sensibly, not as the present incumbent appears to be, hysterically.

Quote
Whether or not countries will co-operate with America depends entirely on their interests and not at all on America's attitude. All other nations are hyper conscious of their weakness compared to America and so, of course, America does tend to vex them in all it does. But the reality of American strength cannot be denied and no conciliatory gestures or rhetoric can change this.

So, you're basically saying that the US does not care, not need the co-operation of other nations?  That what it does, it will do anyway without care as to the effect it might have on other nations?

Now, as to America's strength, I couldn't agree more.  Yet, doesn't your view put you at odds with the Trumpists and other Cold War Warriors? 

Online bobbymike

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1032 on: August 17, 2017, 10:05:46 pm »
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1281946/stratcom-commander-describes-challenges-of-21st-century-deterrence/#.WZYu6kzeKkk.facebook

Quote
"We can't [assume] that having 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear weapons under the New START Treaty somehow deters all our adversaries. It doesn't," the general said.

Why we should have decoupled our arsenal from that of the USSR/Russia after the Cold War and sized it for our and our allies security needs. Which IMHO was START I - 1200 launchers and 6000 warheads.
"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci

Offline kaiserd

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1033 on: August 17, 2017, 11:56:03 pm »
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1281946/stratcom-commander-describes-challenges-of-21st-century-deterrence/#.WZYu6kzeKkk.facebook

Quote
"We can't [assume] that having 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear weapons under the New START Treaty somehow deters all our adversaries. It doesn't," the general said.

Why we should have decoupled our arsenal from that of the USSR/Russia after the Cold War and sized it for our and our allies security needs. Which IMHO was START I - 1200 launchers and 6000 warheads.

Have you read the article?
In context it's very clear he is not advocating for larger numbers of warheads and delivery systems.
He's advocating for modernisation of the triad and for the need for complementary capabilities (like cyber attack/ defence etc.)

Online bobbymike

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Re: Nuclear Weapons - Discussion.
« Reply #1034 on: August 18, 2017, 05:35:34 am »
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1281946/stratcom-commander-describes-challenges-of-21st-century-deterrence/#.WZYu6kzeKkk.facebook

Quote
"We can't [assume] that having 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear weapons under the New START Treaty somehow deters all our adversaries. It doesn't," the general said.

Why we should have decoupled our arsenal from that of the USSR/Russia after the Cold War and sized it for our and our allies security needs. Which IMHO was START I - 1200 launchers and 6000 warheads.

Have you read the article?
In context it's very clear he is not advocating for larger numbers of warheads and delivery systems.
He's advocating for modernisation of the triad and for the need for complementary capabilities (like cyber attack/ defence etc.)
Where do I say he advocates for more warheads? You understand this was MY opinion on the subject quote, right? Comprehend much?
« Last Edit: August 18, 2017, 12:43:01 pm by bobbymike »
"I love those who can smile in trouble, who can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink, but they whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves their conduct, will pursue their principles unto death." - Leonardo da Vinci