TSR2 Conference - Cosford 13 May 2023

Mike Pryce

Mike Pryce

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www.rafmuseum.org.uk

RAeS Conference - The Fall of the RAF's Eagle - RAF Museum

On 13 May at RAF Museum’s Midlands site, this Royal Aeronautical Society conference will review and assess the TSR2 in depth.
www.rafmuseum.org.uk www.rafmuseum.org.uk

RAeS Conference – The Fall of the RAF’s Eagle​

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13 May 2023

The TSR2 Nuclear Bomber: The Lessons of Specification Overreach and Political Imperatives​

On Saturday 13 May 2023 at RAF Museum’s Midlands site, this conference will review and assess the TSR2 in depth. It will present the requirement and the resulting programme in the context of the geo-political, military, political and industrial circumstances.

About the Conference​

The TSR2 nuclear strike aircraft was the last major military aircraft programme undertaken by the British aircraft industry. Its long and costly development culminated in its termination in 1965. That cancellation remains controversial to this day and the aircraft and its related programme are frequent subjects in the specialist aviation press. This conference will examine in depth and detail all aspects of the aircraft and the programme: the political requirement for airborne nuclear strike, the RAF’s requirements, the specification design drivers, the various design concepts proposed, the design concept selected in comparison with ‘off-the-shelf’ overseas alternatives, the political and industrial aspects of the programme, the circumstances of and reasons for its cancellation, and the implications of the cancellation. The conference findings will offer lessons for major military procurement programmes of the present day and the future. As such, the event will be of interest in historical terms and also with regard to contemporary endeavours.

Speaker Line-up​

  • Clive Richards – The Path to GOR339
  • Tony Butler – From Paper to Hardware
  • Professor Keith Hayward – TSR-2: Building the Industrial Coalition
  • Paul Stoddart – Off-the-Shelf’ Options
  • Clive Richards – A ‘melancholy spectacle’: the downfall of the TSR-2, 1957-1965
  • Samuel Hollins – Empty skies: British Procurement Dilemmas and Opportunities
  • Ben Goodlad – TSR2: What could have been?
  • Dr Mike Pryce – TSR-2: A Warning for Tempest?
 
 
Thanks to a little local difficulty with the day job, I'll be attending this conference. Hopefully a few foxes will be shot. Hopefully run into a few denizens of this forum as well.

Chris
 
The subject headings for this conference lend themselves to threads on this site (I can hear the groans already).
Rather than shoot from the hip as I usually do and start one or two myself can I ask first how calmer heads think we might do this, especially those going to the conference?
 
The conference was excellent and not the heated agreement you'd expect. The presentations were excellent and very informative and I think everyone left better informed than they arrived. One delegate admitted to a Damascene Conversion during the Q&A. We were granted permission to inspect the aircraft's cockpits, surprisingly roomy actually. Many thanks to the organisers and plans are afoot for more conferences at 4 Hamilton Place and Cosford, so watch this space. The photo shows the Q&A session at the end, with the speakers - Paul Stoddart, Sam Hollins, Ben Goodlad, Keith Hayward, Mike Pryce and Tony Buttler.

IMG_20230513_162231-01.jpeg
 
I think quote of the day goes to Mike Pryce 'I put "TSR.2 problems" into an AI chat app. It replied with "TSR.2 had many problems...you may be interested in a RAeS conference on TSR.2 at RAF Museum Cosford on Saturday." Most amusing.'

Even AI bots know when to give up. Maybe they are smarter than us?

Chris
 
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Here ye go, the RAeS Historical Group TSR.2 Conference videos.

www.aerosociety.com

Audio & Video - Classic Lecture - The Fallen Eagle : the demise of the RAF's TSR-2

The cancellation of the British aircraft industry’s last major military aircraft programme has long been controversial. This conference examined in depth and in detail all aspects of the aircraft and the programme and tries to answer the question, were they right to axe TSR-2?
www.aerosociety.com www.aerosociety.com

It was a good day out, good speakers.

Chris
 
Awesome.

TSR-2: The path to GOR339: establishing the requirement for a Requirement, 1951-1957 by Clive Richards
View: https://youtu.be/BsUsoGvhHxw


TSR-2: From Paper to Hardware by Tony Buttler AMRAeS
View: https://youtu.be/LQqhSNDUzzs


TSR-2: Building the industrial coalition by Prof Keith Hayward FRAeS
View: https://youtu.be/Z1rYT1imefg


TSR-2: Off-the-Shelf Options by Paul Stoddart FRAeS
View: https://youtu.be/h007Ez2YZpQ


TSR-2: A ‘melancholy spectacle’: the downfall of the TSR-2, 1957-1965 by Clive Richards
View: https://youtu.be/fvavPo4Q8GA


TSR-2: Empty Skies: British procurement dilemmas and opportunities following the cancellation of TSR-2 by Samuel Hollins
View: https://youtu.be/E-S8nFMaqy4


TSR-2: What could have been? By Benjamin Goodlad
View: https://youtu.be/jTZN2BuvIMI


TSR-2: A Warning for Tempest? By Dr Michael Pryce MRAeS
View: https://youtu.be/6yOwK_Uvwek


TSR-2: Panel Discussion
View: https://youtu.be/7qgjZ2WyQ2s
 
An interesting set of briefs and quite different to the RAF historical society session back in the 90s. There was little lamenting of its cancellation here by comparison.
 
Great stuff, really enjoyed those conference videos.

I would suggest that Benjamin Goodlad’s “What could have been?” Would have benefited from some what if artwork such as -
- TSR2’s tanking from Victor’s, VC10’s and buddy tanking from a Buccaneer for size comparisons.
- TSR2’s and Lightning’s operating from HMS Hermes on P.17D VTOL platforms during the Falkland’s War!
- the TSR2 and P.17D combo taking a bow at an air show :D

One question I would have asked the panel is whether they think five Buccaneers would have been better valve for money than one TSR2?

Obviously ignoring the cost, crewing and logistics of 5 vs 1 could five Buccaneers do the strike mission envisioned for the TSR2? Maybe two Buccs buddy tanking, two loaded with Martel anti-radar missiles and one delivering the target marker! ;)
 
Thank you to everyone involved for doing the you tube videos of the presentations.

I always thought the TSR2 drawings released in 1963 looked like the NA Vigilante. The connections seem considerable from the various mentions at Cosford.

Its a shame Paul Lucas wasnt around to do the What if section ( no disrespect to B Goodlad).
The main change I would make is that TSR2 would have allowed the Vulcans to phase out in the early 70s as they took on SACEUR's theatre role from Cyprus and UK plus the Four Power detachments to Singapore post 71.
Hunters would have had to stay on in service until the 70s giving way to a mixture of P1127RAF and Hawks in the GA and training role. Lightnings would have continued without a replacement until the 80s.
TSR2 would have needed replacing in the 80s by a more versatile and cost efficient platform. UKVG in 1967 showed what a national programme could have looked like.
A longer ranged aircraft than Tornado.
Fewer would have been built as replacements for TSR2 and Lightning.
The above assumes that TSR2 was feasible if money could be found. The RAF would have been smaller, especially RAF Germany.
Like the presenters I have to accept that Tornado was better for the RAF and for UK industry.
 

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