Trillion Dollar Trainwreck: How the F-35 Hollowed out the US Air Force by Bill Sweetman

sferrin said:
Well of course you could do it cheaper by gutting capability. But you couldn't do it cheaper while keep capability.
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The problem is that we’ve lost very real capabilities in big deck naval aviation and gained a stealthy, first strike capability from the small decks of the gator navy. We’ve given unnecessary capabilities to a close air support tasked platform and ignored long range interdiction and true air superiority.

I’m not even touching on the Air Force. I think the F-15EX order and the surprising haste with NGAD speaks volumes.
 
TinWing said:
The problem is that we’ve lost very real capabilities in big deck naval aviation and gained a stealthy, first strike capability from the small decks of the gator navy. We’ve given unnecessary capabilities to a close air support tasked platform and ignored long range interdiction and true air superiority.

I’m not even touching on the Air Force. I think the F-15EX order and the surprising haste with NGAD speaks volumes.
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Yeah. It says they realized they should have bought more than 190 F-22s.
 
TinWing said:
The problem is that we’ve lost very real capabilities in big deck naval aviation and gained a stealthy, first strike capability from the small decks of the gator navy. We’ve given unnecessary capabilities to a close air support tasked platform and ignored long range interdiction and true air superiority.
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Symbolic of the JSF being created during the mid 90s when the perceived threats were located in the littoral armed primarily with GBAD, a second rate air force, and second rate (at best) ground forces.
 
sferrin said:
Yeah. It says they realized they should have bought more than 190 F-22s.
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Hits in the heart.
It goes along with 3 Seawolf submarines. Both considered “overly” capable in an era (mid to late 90s & once again in 2009 by Gates) of reduced threats.
 
Hits in the heart.
Bruno Anthony said:
It goes along with 3 Seawolf submarines. Both considered “overly” capable in an era (mid to late 90s & once again in 2009 by Gates) of reduced threats.
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And let us remember the justifications for the truncation of F-22, to wit: China would have no LO aircraft in 2020 and a handful in 2025, and the F-35 would be available soon, almost as capable, and half the cost. (Gates 2009, Chicago and Fort Worth.)

And who was quite happy to lose 150 F-22s if it bolstered the case for 3,000 F-35s? LockMart's favorite think-tank proprietor, that's who.

"Reports of a potential delay in the program due to technical challenges appear to be groundless [O rly? - Ed.] , and F-35 really is central to future joint warfighting plans in a way that the more expensive F-22 fighter was not."

And as anyone with half a brain could tell at the time, the F-35 was far from healthy. But that was all the more reason to kill off any alternatives.
 
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Hollowed out the USAF? What a joke. We've been doing that to ourselves since the 1990s before either JSF demonstrator flew. One can always argue for some better road not taken, but as of now it remains the only serious option for modernizing the greater portion of our tactical airpower. Nobody will deny aspects of it have been poorly managed. Unfortunately that seems to be the way almost every big government project goes these days.

I'd value any claims that the program is going to fall apart any day now on the same level as the sort of claims I see about how the USA or the PRC is going to collapse any moment now and how I should have invested every cent I have in physical gold.
 
LowObservable said:
Hits in the heart.

And let us remember the justifications for the truncation of F-22, to wit: China would have no LO aircraft in 2020 and a handful in 2025, and the F-35 would be available soon, almost as capable, and half the cost. (Gates 2009, Chicago and Fort Worth.)

And who was quite happy to lose 150 F-22s if it bolstered the case for 3,000 F-35s? LockMart's favorite think-tank proprietor, that's who.

"Reports of a potential delay in the program due to technical challenges appear to be groundless [O rly? - Ed.] , and F-35 really is central to future joint warfighting plans in a way that the more expensive F-22 fighter was not."

And as anyone with half a brain could tell at the time, the F-35 was far from healthy. But that was all the more reason to kill off any alternatives.
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The cherry on the sundae was China rolling out the J-20 prototype during Gates' visit.
 
Colonial-Marine said:
I'd value any claims that the program is going to fall apart any day now on the same level as the sort of claims I see about how the USA or the PRC is going to collapse any moment now and how I should have invested every cent I have in physical gold.
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I would take "program that has eaten $240 billion over 25 years, cannot deliver acceptable combat-coded aircraft until 4Q25, and has no firm schedule for necessary upgrades" as reasonably close to falling apart.
Colonial-Marine said:
as of now it remains the only serious option for modernizing the greater portion of our tactical airpower.
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That may be the case, and that is what happens when one program sucks all the oxygen out of the room. It's not an indication of merit.
But also, many times along the way since 2008 or so, people have said "stay the course, too expensive to do anything else, it will all work out," and, well, here we are.
 
Implicit in this discussion is the idea that the US will go into combat with a nuclear armed China and Russia as easily as it did against Iraq, Afghanistan and ISIS.
Fortunately such gung ho thinking was not driving US policy in 1962 and 1973 or I would never have grown up safe and sound.
 
uk 75 said:
Implicit in this discussion is the idea that the US will go into combat with a nuclear armed China and Russia as easily as it did against Iraq, Afghanistan and ISIS.
Fortunately such gung ho thinking was not driving US policy in 1962 and 1973 or I would never have grown up safe and sound.
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I’m a little confused. The US should design less capable aircraft so it will be less aggressive?
 
uk 75 said:
Implicit in this discussion is the idea that the US will go into combat with a nuclear armed China and Russia as easily as it did against Iraq, Afghanistan and ISIS.
Fortunately such gung ho thinking was not driving US policy in 1962 and 1973 or I would never have grown up safe and sound.
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I lived through most of the Cold War. All I heard in the 1960s was about Russian ICBMs falling on our heads. I lived in a major target city. B-52s flying overhead was a common sight. I didn't care. Being scared would not help me. I had a great time along with the other kids. Today, billionaires don't want to die, so they'll call their highly placed friends in government to express their concerns.
 
edwest4 said:
. B-52s flying overhead was a common sight.
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That must’ve been cool. I lived and still live in a major target city but I didn’t really get scared somewhat until The Day After.

The billionaire goal now is immortality convinced as they are that we’re on the cusp of such knowledge at least for them and they’ll support any govt that allows that to continue. And it looks like they’re in favor of authoritarianism.
 
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Bruno Anthony said:
That must’ve been cool. I lived and still live in a major target city but I didn’t really get scared somewhat until The Day After.

The billionaire goal now is immortality convinced as they are that we’re on the cusp of such knowledge at least for them and they’ll support any govt that allows that to continue. And it looks like their in favor of authoritarianism.
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The peasants have always been exploited by the wealthy. There was nothing cool about the B-52s flying overhead. I knew why they were there. I never developed any fear of an attack and the same for other people I knew. I spent a lot of time in the 1980s reading military technical journals. They were filled with page after page of Russian attack scenarios, primarily against Western Europe. I watched, along with my family, President Kennedy on TV telling us about the missiles in Cuba. He added that an attack against Western Europe would be regarded as an attack against the United States. We went to bed that night and slept.
 
Bruno Anthony said:
That must’ve been cool. I lived and still live in a major target city but I didn’t really get scared somewhat until The Day After.

The billionaire goal now is immortality convinced as they are that we’re on the cusp of such knowledge at least for them and they’ll support any govt that allows that to continue. And it looks like their in favor of authoritarianism.
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Of course they are. Gotta keep the serfs in line.
 
The cheapest way to have stopped the Advanced Persistent Threat (as China is referred to) would have been to liquidate Sam Walton.

We might have kept jobs here to boot.

One way or other, the common man pays for both sides of a conflict when he pumps gas or buys cheap at Walmart
 
Purpletrouble said:
Clearly. As lots of amateurs do just that.

A view that adds value is usually seen to come from some, ideally deep and/or broad, experience of doing what you are talking about. Else it is just hot air.

Self publishing a book complaining about F-35 having had precisely zero to do with it, or indeed, anything like it, is nothing but an ego trip and huge demonstration of self indulgence.

Sections of society’s penchant for people who gob off with no quals or experience base on which to base their shouting, is at the core of a lot of the west’s current problems.
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I'm an aviation aficionado. I've written 36 books and twenty monographs on airplanes of all eras that are selling pretty well. A trip of ego, self-indulgence, or a desire to share my hobbies with like-minded people? Should I have studied aeronautical engineering to publish? Won't it be the editors and the public who should have a say in my right to do so? Or are we already in North Korea?
 
Purpletrouble said:
It must be hard not to have expertise, but I wouldn’t know.

I suppose one could just bitch on about something for decades, despite no actual expertise in doing any of it, and then write a book about that bitching to try and fleece a few gullibles of their cash. I guess it works for some.
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Abraham Gubler, is that you????
 
Purpletrouble said:
Self publishing a book complaining about F-35 having had precisely zero to do with it, or indeed, anything like it, is nothing but an ego trip and huge demonstration of self indulgence.
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It is worthwhile to point out that 20 or 30 years ago self publishing a book may have been widely perceived as an ego trip or self-indulgence, that is not so today - especially with electronic publishing and distribution. Self publishing electronic books is very common today and just does not have that perception associated with it anymore.
 
quellish said:
It is worthwhile to point out that 20 or 30 years ago self publishing a book may have been widely perceived as an ego trip or self-indulgence, that is not so today - especially with electronic publishing and distribution. Self publishing electronic books is very common today and just does not have that perception associated with it anymore.
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I was introduced to the KDP idea by Chris Pocock. Interesting model for low-volume publishing.
 
LowObservable said:
I was introduced to the KDP idea by Chris Pocock. Interesting model for low-volume publishing.
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Is that the Chris Pocock that couldn't possibly be qualified to write about the U-2?

The podcast on the link below (and its predecessor from last year) might explain the rise in self-publishing (which I think Purpletrouble may be confusing with vanity publishing/self-publicist here). Publishing houses want everything for nothing (IMHO thanks to their long support tail) and when they do pay, it's not worth the effort. Cut out the middleperson and go straight to the punters. You also get to control how the book looks/feels and what's in it.

https://aviation-xtended.co.uk/ep-201-three-authors-and-a-publication-aviation-history-roundtable/

Chris
 
When the construction of the battleship Bismarck began, no one could suspect that this monster could be defeated by a few biplanes, followed by the disasters of Taranto, Pearl Harbor, Singapore and the death in combat of the Yamato. After watching an artificial intelligence Mk. I defeat a dozen hyperactive teenagers in a drone race, I wonder what chance a human pilot will have in a future high-tech theater of operations. It is good that large amounts are invested in the industry and in the development of new models of very sophisticated fighters. They can always be used in high-responsibility missions such as escorting Air Force One or in small regional conflicts against enemies who cannot acquire modern weapons... but in an all-out war...
 
@LowObservable

Whilst you can find much to criticise, do you also include any recommendations for what to do in the future to avoid similar situations? e.g. what should be incentivised instead? I think you could probably find recommendations at different levels e.g. internal programme changes Vs wider DoD Vs wider Gov procurement policy
 
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red admiral said:
@LowObservable

Whilst you can find much to criticise, do you also include any recommendations for what to do in the future to avoid similar situations? e.g. what should be incentivised instead? I think you could probably find recommendations at different levels e.g. internal programme changes Vs wider DoD Vs wider Gov procurement policy
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A whole chapter about that.
 
quellish said:
It is worthwhile to point out that 20 or 30 years ago self publishing a book may have been widely perceived as an ego trip or self-indulgence, that is not so today - especially with electronic publishing and distribution. Self publishing electronic books is very common today and just does not have that perception associated with it anymore.
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Scott Lowther has been doing it for years and nobody was upset about it.
 
Justo Miranda said:
When the construction of the battleship Bismarck began, no one could suspect that this monster could be defeated by a few biplanes, followed by the disasters of Taranto, Pearl Harbor, Singapore and the death in combat of the Yamato. After watching an artificial intelligence Mk. I defeat a dozen hyperactive teenagers in a drone race, I wonder what chance a human pilot will have in a future high-tech theater of operations. It is good that large amounts are invested in the industry and in the development of new models of very sophisticated fighters. They can always be used in high-responsibility missions such as escorting Air Force One or in small regional conflicts against enemies who cannot acquire modern weapons... but in an all-out war...
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The battlefield has certainly changed. Those FPV drones are downright scary. Air and sea not so much. Not yet anyway.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790027646794977603
View: https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1790027646794977603?t=jUych12ZY0C3Wo_fRARvgA&s=19
 
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CJGibson said:
Is that the Chris Pocock that couldn't possibly be qualified to write about the U-2?
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Really! Not a pilot, not an engineer, never held a security clearance, and calls himself the world's leading U-2 export. Da noive!

Crossed fingers, but KDP was reasonably easy to use. They produce proof copies for ~$6 and they arrive very quickly. I looked at my first one and saw that I got the margins wrong, corrected that and made other changes, and ordered a second proof. You don't get anything like that from a conventional publisher. Plus, for low-volume books, you get zero advertising and promotion anyway. If you're going to do it yourself you might as well get the benefit.

I pitched a full-size book (100k-plus words, fully illustrated) at a conventional publisher a few months ago. They offered me a $3k advance. That's not business, that's The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists.

If this project works I will gladly provide some of my lessons learned on this forum.
 
sferrin said:
The cherry on the sundae was China rolling out the J-20 prototype during Gates' visit.
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LowObservable said:
And let us remember the justifications for the truncation of F-22, to wit: China would have no LO aircraft in 2020 and a handful in 2025, and the F-35 would be available soon, almost as capable, and half the cost. (Gates 2009, Chicago and Fort Worth.)
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Are these the same Gates?
 
sferrin said:
Scott Lowther has been doing it for years and nobody was upset about it.
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In the context of this discussion though, Scott has an aerospace engineering degree and associated professional experience and credentials, so he *IS* writing from the perspective of a technical subject matter expert.
 
quellish said:
It is worthwhile to point out that 20 or 30 years ago self publishing a book may have been widely perceived as an ego trip or self-indulgence, that is not so today - especially with electronic publishing and distribution. Self publishing electronic books is very common today and just does not have that perception associated with it anymore.
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You are absolutely wrong. Nothing has changed. The ebook market has been flooded by amateurs with little skill and little knowledge. And yes, some think they are "professional" authors. I was there 20 and 30 years ago in book publishing for a company that has nearly 200 titles in print. I still work in book publishing.
 
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martinbayer said:
In the context of this discussion though, Scott has an aerospace engineering degree and associated professional experience and credentials, so he *IS* writing from the perspective of a technical subject matter expert.
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Martin,

Do you think those without degrees in aerospace can research a subject and produce a good book about it?
 

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