Sukhoi, with Su-35s as the main fighter of RuAF, new, just finished Su-57, S-70 preparing for the first flight, and LMFS on track is in a very, very sorry state. ;)

Sukhoi has delivered fewer than 20 Su-57s in 13 years, and has orders for just 76. This is not an economically viable programme.
Nor is the Su-57 particularly impressive, and it has struggled to win export orders.

The fact that the company is relying on what was meant to be an interim aircraft awaiting the development of the PAK-FA (Su-57) is a bit sad. And even that programme has hardly been a great money spinner.

Sukhoi is probably not receiving sufficient orders to cover its costs, it certainly isn't doing well.
 
It most certainly is an impressive program, and to the other part of your post CAATSA plays a massive role in all of this. Another issue is that nations wanted an F-22 analog with extra A2G functionality. The su-57 is a fundamentally different fighter.

Just as many "experts" have weighed into the Ukraine conflict making equally bold assertions with very little known info and a thick fog of war, there are lots of experts who weigh in on Russian fighters with an equal dearth of info.

Edit: had to make a correction
 
As an aviation journalist of many years experience, with books and articles published, I think he has every right to express his view here without being accused of getting his knowledge from "The Drive".

At the same time, it would help his case if his arguments (some of which definitely contain valid concerns at the core) didn't overshoot the target so gratuitously. If one is concerned about being accused of stooping to The Drive levels, it may be an idea to start by raising one's discourse above that standard.

Let's start with economic viability. I'd agree that there is solid grounds for doubt in that regard, but to base that argument on the (current) Su-57 order book of all things is frankly ridiculous. At which point did the 1990s JSF/F-35 become an economically viable project - in 2011 (before then, *firmly contracted* US orders stood at a mere 88, out of a much larger stated requirement...)? How about the elephant in the room, the expected severe consequences of the attack on Ukraine on the overall Russian defence budget, instead?

And while we're on the subject, what do we even mean by "economic viability" in this context? We are talking about a major national defence project, intended to safeguard and build jobs and critical skills at least as much as making money. Is the UK nuclear deterrent "economically viable"? Would Rafale have been considered "economically viable", if evaluated as recently as 10 years ago before its exports took off? By what standard?

Second, the degree of "system-of-systems" and MUM-T implementation. It is certainly fair to say that the Su-75 will not reach the level of Western 6th generation fighter projects, after all it is at least scheduled to run several years ahead of them and deliberately draws heavily on the older Su-57. Yet there are good indications that the latter is already intended to go beyond the existing F-22 and F-35 at least, with strong hints of design from the outset for teaming with the S-70 - as always, it's a continuous evolution. The Su-27 and F/A-18 as the final 4th generation fighters also pioneered some features that would come to be widely adopted only in the subsequent 4.5 and 5th generations (IRST, HMD, IFDL in the Flanker, composite wing structures and high specific thrust engines on the Hornet). Not because their designers were inherently smarter, but because the general state of the art had already advanced somewhat compared to the earliest exponents, the F-14 and F-15.

In any case, the Su-75, with its planned unmanned derivative and the separate Grom loyal wing man project, is evidently supposed to expand further upon the level attained in the Su-57, and a future Russian 6th generation project can be expected to improve on this once more. We can *speculate* all we want on whether the overarching Russian strategy of "adjuncts" and "effectors" is as "well-conceived" as its Western counterparts (one of which was recently cancelled...), but the fact of the matter is that its visible and quantifiable elements match. Unless Jackonicko has some deeper insight not only into the Western but crucially also the *Russian* doctrine that eludes me, there is no basis for asserting their relative merits with such unreserved confidence. Appealing to authority does not cut it.

Finally, the commonality approach. If what Sukhoi proposed to do here truly was the equivalent of taking the wings and tail of a Typhoon to create a single-engine Gripen counterpart (which is what Jackonicko implies and explicitly suggested earlier in this thread), it would indeed be mad. It's not as simple as all that, however. The configurations selected for the Su-57 (wide centroplane, deliberately reduced fin area) and Su-75 (compact fuselage, tail layout that relies on the fins for pitch control to a greater extent than its larger cousin) are uniquely suited to this component sharing. As a result the Su-57 wings aren't in fact much larger than those of a Typhoon, and by adopting a more conventional yaw control philosophy, these parts are in fact perfectly appropriate in size for a Typhoon/F-35 class aircraft like the Su-75. This is simple to verify: if it were not the case, wing loading would be grossly low, and while it is lower than the F-35's (which sits near the top of the typical range anyway), it is likely *higher* than Typhoon's and in no way an outlier. Same with the fins - you could say that for once this argument can actually be settled by eyeballing, and they are not disproportionately large. AFAIK, in weight budgeting during conceptual design, the weight of wings and control surfaces is evaluated by area, so if they are not oversized (which they are not, see above) that would indicate the penalty over a purpose-designed part will at least not be severe.

So what about the engineer who judged it crazy? Well, back when the Su-75 was first revealed and this same discussion arose, somebody with experience of structural engineering said it was not self-evidently a bad approach in this very thread. I can only conclude the guy Jackonicko consulted was mirror-imaging what HE considered the brief for such a project _should_ be, not what it actually is. In the case of the F-35, three versions of a largely common airframe were compromised in their performance relative to bespoke-designed aircraft for each role in order to obtain cost savings by component sharing. Was that a good idea? Debatable, but it is what it is, and credit where it is due, the solution LM came up with does perform well enough to be competitive.

Is the Su-75 concept bold, to some extent even unprecedented, in this regard? Absolutely. Does it violate first principles of engineering wisdom as implied by Jackonicko, such that it could legitimately be called "insane" or "crazy"? Hell, NO.

More than one person who saw the Checkmate "demonstrator" believes it was only a mockup. Historically the only times people have reused existing components of aircraft to make a new one like this is for X-Planes and tech demonstrators, and purely for cost and expediency reasons.

It is only a mock-up for sure. Quite possibly one with engineering functions rather than just a cosmetic representation, but I don't think anybody seriously expected it to be a flyable airframe - if that was so, that's mainly on the person concerned and not necessarily a damning reflection on the project.
 
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I don't think there is any indication that the Russian Air Force want to buy it. This far it seems to be purely a Sukhoi commercial initiative.

— What are the results of negotiations with the Ministry of Defense regarding the new Checkmate light fighter, as well as its unmanned version? Did the agency become a customer of the aircraft?

* The Su-75 is being created primarily as an export aircraft. We predict a fairly large niche in the global market. We are planning joint work and fruitful cooperation to support the work of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the implemented characteristics, including in terms of range and combat load, make it possible to use the Su-75 for the tasks of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and ensure the minimum cost of operation. And with the use of an unmanned version, an additional expansion of the capabilities of existing aviation complexes of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is being implemented.


Edit: idk, seems MoD do like what other have describe. Waiting for the result before ordering.
 
Russia is behind here and Checkmate suffers as result, as, for example it can carry only two 500kg bombs internally, despite having space for larger munition - there is no 1000kg analog of mk84 and 1500kg bombs are too big to fit.
Four 500 kg bombs are placed in the LTS weapons bay
Is that blue overlay illustrating Kh-31?
 
Russia is behind here and Checkmate suffers as result, as, for example it can carry only two 500kg bombs internally, despite having space for larger munition - there is no 1000kg analog of mk84 and 1500kg bombs are too big to fit.
Four 500 kg bombs are placed in the LTS weapons bay
It's your usual FAB-500M54 which are designed for internal carry and therefore are short. However, all KAB bombs are 3m long at least. 4xKAB-250 also likely won't fit due to diameter and wingspan (also what with the obession of making X-shaped wings when foldable wings a-la SDB/GROM are much more compact?).
And there is still question about something more powerful than KAB-500 for iternal carry.
 
How big is Grom weapon bay? If it around the same width, Checkmate probably can carry 4 Kab-250 or 4 Kab-500. But idk, this graphic still only a speculation.
IMG_20220824_135648.jpg

Edit : not speculation
grom_a10.jpg
 
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I'm a bit surprised by the claim about fitting four of the long KAB-250 bombs into it.

The depiction of the FAB-100 is also a bit surprising - as one would expect that if two can be carried side-by-side - then one should be able to fit all eight within the weapons bay.

The only logical conclusion is that there is some type of modular hardpoint that can carry two smaller diameter weapons side-by-side in place of one higher diametre weapon... but that this modular adapter takes up the entire length of the weapons bay (i.e. two can't be mounted in front of each other).

This is also a bit confusing as a similar weapons bay for the LTS was depicted as having a hardpoint system that could carry 3xR-77M.

Assuming these weapon bays have similar dimensions to those on the Su-57... that would give us at least four configurations:
2x700kg weapons (X-38, Izdeliye 810 etc.)
3x200kg narrow weapons (R-77M)
4x250kg long weapons (KAB-250)
4x500kg short weapons (FAB-500)

I wonder if any of this is true?
 
I think we're reading way too much into something that is, at most, a demonstrator, and might instead be described as a mock up depending on your point of view. The weapon loadouts depicted probably wouldn't be representative of a finished product.
 
The only logical conclusion is that there is some type of modular hardpoint that can carry two smaller diameter weapons side-by-side in place of one higher diametre weapon... but that this modular adapter takes up the entire length of the weapons bay (i.e. two can't be mounted in front of each other).
Or Grom have wider weapon bay.
Imo, they can have 3 ejector inside the bay. But for 4 weapon in the bay, they not using the middle ejector and put special dual pylon (like Su-35 dual R-77 on the inbetween engine hardpoint). But yeah kinda doubt that they able to do that with Kab-250.

Simpler solution is to have bomb with RVV-SD diameter. So 3 bombs inside internal bay.
 
And how do you know that isn't just coincidence without any insight into the method underlying the original article?

I've done a similar kind of thing myself in a professional capacity. It concerned a phenomenon for which a truly accurate prediction was incredibly complex because it was sensitive to a large number of influences, good info on most of which was not available and therefore had to be simplified. Since the underlying mechanics were "merely" physics, I actually had a decent idea of what I was trying to achieve, but still a useful simplification remained extremely difficult. The first prediction/measurement comparison was, to quote a colleague, "wickedly good"... subsequent experience much less so. Definitely usable, but unfortunately perception of the whole thing was kind of coloured by that first incredibly good example, which such a strongly simplified method couldn't possibly live up to all the time.

Now, it was sufficiently accurate that a configuration which it said would result in better performance than another did so in the real world as well - the magnitude of the difference might be off, but at least the trend was reliable. But if you're simplifying out into the blue, with no idea of the mechanics and relationships you are trying to represent, you can get the sensitivities so wrong that it renders the results completely implausible and unusable (because you might not even know when they're incorrect).
 
Perhaps not, but he can prove that you can't prove that you're right.
For all the time, I have only once met a comparison of the combat potential of fighters. It was in an article about the MiG-29M. The article was published in one of the Russian magazines, it seems in the nineties.
MiG-29
MiG-29S
MiG-29M
F-18C
air - to-air11.31.51.15
air - to- ground11.13.83.75

correspondences in the paralay table:
air- to-air MiG-29 (1), MiG-29M (1.61), F-18C (1.15)
air-to-ground MiG-29 (1), MiG-29M (3.88), F-18C (3.62)
Random numbers are random. Its a marketing piece showing the advantages of the MiG-29S and MiG-29M. The fact it is similar to your analysis could cast doubt on the magazine figures as much as it could support your calculations.
 
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You are spinning like a frying pan, in order to preserve your familiar picture of the world :)


Sorry, but the same could be replied in return even more since such random numbers without any further explanation on what they are based are meaningless. I remember a similar much larger table where you listed several completely irrelevant data into a "calculation" that in the end "strangely" always favours your Russian systems.

So please don't get me wrong, but we should all end this stupid discussion right now!

@overscan (PaulMM)
 
Something I've been thinking about - I'd have expected to be a bit more Su-57 shaped. So, here is a question for those more knowledgeable than me:

What is the reason for the lack of area ruling?

Is it to reduce wetted area? Observability?
 
You are spinning like a frying pan, in order to preserve your familiar picture of the world :)

I don't think it's any particularly great secret that combat potential tables tend to reflect implicit biases of institutions though?

The American combat potential calculations skewed towards assigning the greatest combat power to American heavy divisions and the lowest to the Dutch, not unlike the Soviet combat potentials skewing towards Soviet heavy divisions being the best and Romanians or East Germans being the worst.

Without seeing the underlying algorithm, and how it is calculated, it's not a terribly useful number except for determination of COFM. It's certainly not as useful as comparing publicly available information like payload capacity, maximum range, cruise speed, g-ratings, etc, but it is probably a good comparison point for the General Staff or someone who has access to COFM algorithms and can work backwards.
 
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You are spinning like a frying pan, in order to preserve your familiar picture of the world :)

Talking about frying pans, I think this video is quite appropriate here. "Six feet under", how me miss you.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-QIs1R1xc


BANG !

ROTFLMAO.
the ultimate bonk lmao.

the Russians coming out with the SU-75 explaining how its better than anything else : :D
the US with their F35 that has been flying since 2006 : *bonk*

Well … why are some already discussing which one is better and how much, when one of the two is not even flying and IMO it is rather unlikely that this will happen anytime soon?

This all reminds me on the typical Indian-Pakistani quarrels, where Indians constantly claim their Tejas Mk.2 WILL be better than the Thunder which is already in service since years in large numbers…
 
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5th Gen is about a high degree of all aspect LO, integrated avionics, and fused sensors

Sorry, F-22, you're not 5th gen anymore :p
5th Gen is about marketing thing. It's definition depends of what plane you want to sell ;)

otherwise F-35 wouldn't have qualified
"If you can't win - rewrite the rules" :D

We do know that the two new Sukhois don't have 5th Gen qualities to the same degree as F-35, F-22, etc.
More correct is to say that 'that the two new Sukhois don't have USAF, USN and USMC demands to the 5th Gen'
 
Well … why are some already discussing which one is better and how much, when one of the two is not even flying and IMO it is rather unlikely that this will happen anytime soon?

This all reminds me on the typical Indian-Pakistani quarrels, where Indians constantly claim their Tejas Mk.2 WILL be better than the Thunder which is already in service since years in large numbers…
With all due respect, unlike the german-designed/built combat jets, Russian (and, yes, Indian) jets actually exist and fly around.
Of course, it can buy something that someone else first brought to flight 20 years ago, and pretend that these 20 years won't produce any advancement. :rolleyes:
 
Well … why are some already discussing which one is better and how much, when one of the two is not even flying and IMO it is rather unlikely that this will happen anytime soon?

This all reminds me on the typical Indian-Pakistani quarrels, where Indians constantly claim their Tejas Mk.2 WILL be better than the Thunder which is already in service since years in large numbers…
With all due respect, unlike the german-designed/built combat jets, Russian (and, yes, Indian) jets actually exist and fly around.
Of course, it can buy something that someone else first brought to flight 20 years ago, and pretend that these 20 years won't produce any advancement. :rolleyes:


Not sure in what way and attempted insult against Germany and its non-existing projects make the situation for the S-75 better or its claimed schedule and performances more realistic? ;)

But if it help you to feel better now, then so may it ...
 
Not sure in what way and attempted insult against Germany and its non-existing projects make the situation for the S-75 better or its claimed schedule and performances more realistic? ;)
b/c otherwise I really wonder where your problems with Sukhoi come from. Reality hits again and again, yet reading the same and the same from an otherwise reputable author becomes annoying.

The situation with S-75 isn't known to have changed, and apart from commercial blahblah, there is not that much unrealistic with this plane.
 
Not sure in what way and attempted insult against Germany and its non-existing projects make the situation for the S-75 better or its claimed schedule and performances more realistic? ;)
b/c otherwise I really wonder where your problems with Sukhoi come from. Reality hits again and again, yet reading the same and the same from an otherwise reputable author becomes annoying.

The situation with S-75 isn't known to have changed, and apart from commercial blahblah, there is not that much unrealistic with this plane.


Sorry, there is in fact SO MUCH unrealistic on this project and I think I'm not alone with my standpoint.

Anyway, let's wait and see ...
 
It will be interesting to see what Russia does with the T-75 project in the context of the conflict in Ukraine.

In addition to the lack of emphasis on UAVs, it has been shown from the very beginning that it was a huge mistake to retire a large number of Su-17 front-line fighter-bombers and MiG-23BN/MiG-27 attack aircraft in the 1990s without any adequate replacement.

Their role in tactical depth is meaninglessly fulfilled by the heavy Su-30s and Su-34s, which have relatively high losses regardless of the fact that they are twin-engined. They are oversized, operationally expensive aircraft for the given purpose (not to mention Syria, where Su-34s fly with two FAB-250s...), and they are also... HUGE, easily visible targets.

This gap in the strike capabilities of the VKS has been talked about for quite a long time (see e.g. the PLIB study), but now this question is gaining relevance.

The T-75 is basically an ideal candidate in the medium term, both in terms of concept and availability of technologies (which are probably combat-proven - see Su-57 discussion).
 
If what is needed is a Su-17 and Mig 23/27 replacement, the Mig 29 should have done the trick.
No. MiG-29 is two engined medium craft. Due to it's two engines it's not as economic (both maintenance, and fuel-wise). And OG MiG-29 is not exactly a strike material - both by WCS limitations, relatively short range and low stores amount and load.
 
If what is needed is a Su-17 and Mig 23/27 replacement, the Mig 29 should have done the trick.
No. MiG-29 is two engined medium craft. Due to it's two engines it's not as economic (both maintenance, and fuel-wise). And OG MiG-29 is not exactly a strike material - both by WCS limitations, relatively short range and low stores amount and load.
Can't really agree when the two aircrafts from the LWF program, one single engined and one twin, both originally not developed for strike purposes, evolved into multi-role aircrafts capable of anything from CAS to AI/deep strike.
 
If what is needed is a Su-17 and Mig 23/27 replacement, the Mig 29 should have done the trick.
In the late 1990s there was an intention to fill the gap after the Su-17 with a mass upgrade of the MiG-29 to the SMT version, and in 2015 to start replacing them with the universal LFS, which was supposed to replace most of the front-line types.

The MiG-29SMT turned out to be a not very successful project, and the PAK FA was preferred instead of the LFS. The gap after the Su-17 has remained unfilled to this day.
 
What about the Sh-90 requirement? Was it (and the LUS) absorbed into the LFS (prior to cancellation)? Note: I'm not sure if these really qualify - as the battlefield strike Su-17/Mig-27 fighters were designed as supersonic platforms for high intensity conflicts, and in spite of attempts to reduce observability and add countermeasures the Sh-90 and LUS designs appear to have been subsonic.
 
The problem is the basic model - VKS got in the same "single conflict fallacy" which haunted the Brits during the late CW.
Idea:

Either we bomb jihadis just above the stinger engagement zone - and it can be done even with rocks and eggs

or

we fight US/NATO - and then the only real type of deeper offensive operation is low-alt nuclear bomb delivery (which works even with very low survivability ratios), otherwise, any activity beyond our own SAM bubbles is kinda suicidal. Here naturally comes the focus on either DEF-CA, tactical stand-off, or simply hit'n'run bombing the frontline.

End result - a compact, specialized heavy fighter/strike fighter force, which is good at being a porcupine - but can't even eat a much weaker porcupine (because Ukraine does a very similar thing, basically playing ca. 1990 Soviet air force game).
Both, however, completely lost their actual strike fighter branches.

End result - a vicious hedgehog fight.
 
An analysis on the Su-75 as done by Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute, the J-20's designers.
Translated by "zwz" over on f-16.net
 

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^ Thanks for the translation.
general summary is that the Chinese engineers are not very positive on its performances compared to other 5th gen
but that its still a good bang for your buck.

Although I think a lot of these things are quite preliminary as all we saw was a mock up.
 
Argentina?!
Yes, as one of potential customers.

Gonna have to be cheap then, considering the state of the Argentine economy - inflation hit 48.8% in May.
It'll be cheap or it's failed right from the start. That's why i sincerely hope it will be a true conceptual successor of the great MiG-21...finally. A single-izd.30 Frontline Fighter Jet.
Right. But even cheaper because Izd. 117 series engine.
 

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