Possible upcoming skirmish (or worse) in or around Korean Peninsula?

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9978105/US-plans-tit-for-tat-response-to-North-Korea.html

 

[Arjen]

Hein de Kort's view.

 

[JFC Fuller]

North Korea appears to be preparing another nuclear test. Since it is probable that North Korea has very few warheads, it should be encouraged to waste more warhead on demonstrations.

Only if they are still using Plutonium. If they are using Uranium, of which they have a plentiful natural supply, they could detonate nukes just as fast as they could enrich it.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html

(CNN) -- [Breaking news update at 4:49 a.m. Monday ]

North Korea said Monday that it would pull all of its workers out of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, an economic cooperation zone with the South that is the last major symbol of cooperation between the two countries.

The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency said the country was halting all ongoing activity in the zone and would consider shutting it down for good.

Pyongyang had already been preventing South Korean workers and managers from entering the complex and threatened to shut it down entirely amid high tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

 

[RanulfC]

So... Have we already gone over the "theories" that this is all being orchastrated by China so they have an excuse to "step-in" and stabilize the "situation"? Oh and then end up with troops standing on the second biggest thorium supply in the world?

:::grin:::

Randy

 

[Arjen]

"Many journalists have fallen for the conspiracy theory of government. I do assure you that they would produce more accurate work if they adhered to the cock-up theory." - Sir Bernard Ingham

 

[robunos]

Not my work (I cannot credit it to anyone either, I got forwarded an imgur link without much of an explanation) but ... this just works on so many levels.

Of course, it's only really funny when you've seen the original..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4mP9pR-mzU

cheers,
Robin.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRTjHJ93UYg&list=UUGaVdbSav8xWuFWTadK6loA&index=1

 

[Triton]

"South Korea asks US for nuclear support to send 'strong message' to China"
Published time: April 09, 2013 01:39

Source:
http://on.rt.com/1wsn6i

A South Korean lawmaker said that nuclear support from the United States is needed in order to protect against North Korea's continued aggression and unpredictability, but also to keep its larger neighbor in check.

During a trip to the United States, a powerful South Korean politician has suggested that his country needs nuclear weapons of its own - and not just to intimidate North Korea, but also to send a strong message to China.

Rep. Chung Moon-joon, in a speech Monday in Washington DC, said the Chinese have overlooked what Seoul sees as North Korea’s aggressive tactics in favor of disputes in Tibet and Taiwan.

“In terms of North Korea, China wants to maintain the status quo, reluctant to be active in putting pressure on it,” said. Rep. Chung, who, in his seventh term as a lawmaker, serves as the leader of South Korea’s ruling Saenuri Party.

Chung is scheduled to speak again on Tuesday in the second of the two-day 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. According to Yonhap News, he will suggest that US politicians provide arms to South Korea.

“Possessing nuclear weapons is the best way to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats,” he said. “It would send a strong political message not only to North Korea but also to China.”

Chung, who is one of the favorites to become president of South Korea in the country's 2017 election, also recommended that US officials reconsider giving South Korea wartime control of its own troops within the next two years.

“The US should halt a scheme to move the Second Infantry Division to a base south of the Han River in Seoul,” he said. “The US will also have to push for direct talks with North Korea to put a top priority on the denuclearization issue.”

It’s not the first time a South Korean lawmaker has pressured the US for nuclear support, but the idea has gained traction on the peninsula after recent provocations from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. That tension escalated again Monday with North Korea’s announcement that 51,000 workers would be recalled from a factory shared with the South, a major step toward ending economic ties.

Other South Korean leaders recanted statements Monday from Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, who previously said “there is an indication” of activity around North Korea’s nuclear test site. South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said Monday that, while there are vehicles in the area, none of the events around the test site are unusual.

Despite the ongoing rhetoric Kim Sung-han, an international relations expert at Korea University in Seoul, doubted the two countries would descend into war. He told USA Today that, if North Korea does appear to be testing nuclear weapons, it’s only evidence that Kim Jong-un is desperate for power.

“This problem of power consolidation is his gigantic task to accomplish in a short period of time,” Kim said, adding that the North Korean leadership is “gradually losing domestic support” with a chance of an outbreak of public discontent.

"It’s always helpful to remind the people that their country is surrounded by evil and scheming enemies, and only the leader and the army can keep the country secure.”

 

[Abraham Gubler]

He was making sense until he started talking about how "no one understands how North Korea works"... which is a load of bollocks. There are plenty of people who study the north and they have access to a lot of information and it’s all pretty straight forward. I just think lots of people in the west like the idea of having a crazy hermit country out there and couldn't be bothered trying to understand them. And when they hear the way North Korea works turn off very quickly because it’s all old school stuff that no one is meant to think anymore (racism, birth castes, royal dynasties, etc).

 

[2IDSGT]

He was making sense until he started talking about how "no one understands how North Korea works"... which is a load of bollocks. There are plenty of people who study the north and they have access to a lot of information and it’s all pretty straight forward. I just think lots of people in the west like the idea of having a crazy hermit country out there and couldn't be bothered trying to understand them. And when they hear the way North Korea works turn off very quickly because it’s all old school stuff that no one is meant to think anymore (racism, birth castes, royal dynasties, etc).

An offer should be made to have North Korea declared a world heritage sight. In exchange, they would be required to give anthropologists free reign to wander about, observing how things work in an absolute monarchy. It'd be like having a time capsule of life as most of humanity once experienced it.

 

[The Artist]

Another image going around making light of the situation. I have to admit that this one did make me laugh.

 

[chuck4]

"South Korea asks US for nuclear support to send 'strong message' to China"
Published time: April 09, 2013 01:39

Source:
http://on.rt.com/1wsn6i

A South Korean lawmaker said that nuclear support from the United States is needed in order to protect against North Korea's continued aggression and unpredictability, but also to keep its larger neighbor in check.

During a trip to the United States, a powerful South Korean politician has suggested that his country needs nuclear weapons of its own - and not just to intimidate North Korea, but also to send a strong message to China.

Rep. Chung Moon-joon, in a speech Monday in Washington DC, said the Chinese have overlooked what Seoul sees as North Korea’s aggressive tactics in favor of disputes in Tibet and Taiwan.

“In terms of North Korea, China wants to maintain the status quo, reluctant to be active in putting pressure on it,” said. Rep. Chung, who, in his seventh term as a lawmaker, serves as the leader of South Korea’s ruling Saenuri Party.

Chung is scheduled to speak again on Tuesday in the second of the two-day 2013 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. According to Yonhap News, he will suggest that US politicians provide arms to South Korea.

“Possessing nuclear weapons is the best way to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats,” he said. “It would send a strong political message not only to North Korea but also to China.”

Chung, who is one of the favorites to become president of South Korea in the country's 2017 election, also recommended that US officials reconsider giving South Korea wartime control of its own troops within the next two years.

“The US should halt a scheme to move the Second Infantry Division to a base south of the Han River in Seoul,” he said. “The US will also have to push for direct talks with North Korea to put a top priority on the denuclearization issue.”

It’s not the first time a South Korean lawmaker has pressured the US for nuclear support, but the idea has gained traction on the peninsula after recent provocations from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. That tension escalated again Monday with North Korea’s announcement that 51,000 workers would be recalled from a factory shared with the South, a major step toward ending economic ties.

Other South Korean leaders recanted statements Monday from Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, who previously said “there is an indication” of activity around North Korea’s nuclear test site. South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said Monday that, while there are vehicles in the area, none of the events around the test site are unusual.

Despite the ongoing rhetoric Kim Sung-han, an international relations expert at Korea University in Seoul, doubted the two countries would descend into war. He told USA Today that, if North Korea does appear to be testing nuclear weapons, it’s only evidence that Kim Jong-un is desperate for power.

“This problem of power consolidation is his gigantic task to accomplish in a short period of time,” Kim said, adding that the North Korean leadership is “gradually losing domestic support” with a chance of an outbreak of public discontent.

"It’s always helpful to remind the people that their country is surrounded by evil and scheming enemies, and only the leader and the army can keep the country secure.”

Of course direct one on one talks with the US on a formal state to state basis been what north Korea wanted all along, believing it to be the path to recognized nuclear powerhood with parity with other states in terms of sanctified right to continued existence. The Chinese also wanted the US to grant north Korea this implicit recognition of formal state to state negotiation. It benefits china to elevate the status and sanctify the existence of their otherwise highly dubious buffer state.

The US, knowing what north korea wants and beliving the granting of this wish a bad precedent, has avoided direct state to state talks with north Korea, restricting itself to talks in the context of continuation of 1953 armistice negotiation only. The US would not tolerate north Korean presence in any formal state negotiation unles china and south Korea were also present, making up the full armistice contingent for the Korean war.


For the US, it's not worth talking if north Korea and china wasn't there. For north Korea it's not worth talking unless it was one to one with the US.

Hence the farcical 6 party talk hosted by china, and it's collapse in shambles.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

Be fun to watch lil Kim banging his shoe on the podium

 

[2IDSGT]

Be fun to watch lil Kim banging his shoe on the podium

... at the UN I suppose. No, those Kims don't get out much these days; kinda hard to go out in the real world where everyone thinks you're ridiculous. I'm a little surprised at lil Chubby's antics though, Swiss boarding-school education and all.

 

[piko1]

lil Kim is the best troll just look at the skoreans they freak out
but we will see how it's going to be but it will be fun to watch

 

[Arjen]

From Ares:

DoD Not Likely to Raid Army for Second Japan TPY-2

Posted by Amy Butler 9:46 AM on Apr 09, 2013

The AN/TPY-2 tracking radar bound for Japan is not likely to come from the Army's existing Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) batteries, says Col. James Jenkins, deputy commander for operations at Army Space and Missile Defense Command.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently announced a second Raytheon AN/TPY-2 would be placed in Japan, one of several responses from the U.S. to threats from North Korea of long-range missile attack. Along with an extra TPY-2 for missile tracking, the Pentagon plans to add 14 more Ground Based Midcourse Defense interceptors at Ft. Greely, Alaska in Fiscal 2017. This will bring the total GMD interceptor magazine to 44.

Already, the first radar has been placed in Shariki. The second will provide a different view of the flight corridor from North Korea to the U.S. and its territories.
The Missile Defense Agency says the TPY-2 will not come from one of its deployed locations, including Israel, Qatar or Turkey, for example. But, the Army only has two fielded Thaad batteries, at least one of which is being called to action in Guam for area defense of U.S. forces there.

Jenkins says that enough TPY-2s are in the pipeline to fulfill the new Japanese mission without jeopardizing the Army's plans of fielding six full Thaad batteries.
He made his comments April 9 during a government affairs breakfast at the 29th National Space Symposium.

 

[TomS]

It's interesting--there seems to be much less media and popular anxiety about this is South Korea than in the US.

 

[chuck4]

Yeah, you can only cry "wolf!" so many times before people stop bothering to even look up. Appearently Kim thought if he cried "bear!" Instead people would be startled enough to not recognize his voice.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22082309

 

[Triton]

What about Rep. Chung Moon-joon's proposal that the United States give South Korea war time control of its troops within the next two years and nuclear weapons as a message to North Korea and the People's Republic of China? Will other countries in South East Asia wish to join the nuclear club?

 

[chuck4]

It is very strongly against American sense of exceptionalism to relinquish overall operational controls in situations where large bodies of American troops could see action. Therefore it can't be done so long as America retains senior status in the alliance.

If South Korea goes nuclear Japan would almost certainly shortly follow. It is not in American interest allow American allies to gain the sort of independent defensive sufficiency that nuclear weapons affords. It would remove vital American leverage, and reduce America's capacity to control events in our favor. In addition, nuclearization of Korea and Japan would also promote Chinese nuclear build up. Trapping US and China into a nuclear race would not be in anyone's interests.

 

[sferrin]

It is strongly against American sense of exceptionalism to relinquish overall operational controls in situations where large bodies of American troops could be brought to see action. Therefore it can't be done so long as America retains senior status in the alliance

If South Korea goes nuclear Japan would almost certainly shortly follow. It is not in American interest allow American allies to gain the sort of independent defensive sufficiency that nuclear weapons affords. It would remove vital American leverage, and reduce America's capacity to control events in our favor. It would also promote Chinese nuclear build up. Hitherto the Chinese clearly has not placed any heavy emphasis on nuclear parity with the US in its defense buildup. Two nuclear independent nuclear powers not too friendly to itself could be incentive to change this amphasis. Chinese potential in a nuclear buildup is formidable and given the size of its economy and industrial base, has every reason to be able to eventually match or exceed those of the old Soviet Union. Such a nuclear arms race with China would definitely not be in our interest.

I'd rather have Japan and SK with their own independent nuclear forces. Like a UK and France in the Pacific. Worked pretty well for the US in Europe.

 

[chuck4]

It is strongly against American sense of exceptionalism to relinquish overall operational controls in situations where large bodies of American troops could be brought to see action. Therefore it can't be done so long as America retains senior status in the alliance

If South Korea goes nuclear Japan would almost certainly shortly follow. It is not in American interest allow American allies to gain the sort of independent defensive sufficiency that nuclear weapons affords. It would remove vital American leverage, and reduce America's capacity to control events in our favor. It would also promote Chinese nuclear build up. Hitherto the Chinese clearly has not placed any heavy emphasis on nuclear parity with the US in its defense buildup. Two nuclear independent nuclear powers not too friendly to itself could be incentive to change this amphasis. Chinese potential in a nuclear buildup is formidable and given the size of its economy and industrial base, has every reason to be able to eventually match or exceed those of the old Soviet Union. Such a nuclear arms race with China would definitely not be in our interest.

I'd rather have Japan and SK with their own independent nuclear forces. Like a UK and France in the Pacific. Worked pretty well for the US in Europe.

The situation is different.

1. UK and France were long established independent global military powers with global interests and strong international standing at the beginning of the nuclear age. We needed their good will and couldn't keep them from going nuclear without losing them as allies.

2. UK and France existed in much more cohesive European postwar environment that guided their interests and actions. They knew where their common interests lie and there was no danger of their going to war with each other. Korea and Japan have many unresolved issues and territorial conflicts. They could go to war against each other.

3. When Britain and particularly France went nuclear, Soviet Union was already aggresively nuclear, particularly against the US. Having nuclear powers near USSR would only dissipate their nuclear efforts against us. The Chinese are currently no aggresively nuclear. Putting more nuclear powers on their doorstep might trap them into going aggressively nuclear.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/454992/20130409/north-korea-missile-japan-interceptor-tokyo-pyongyang.htm

 

[kcran567]

Be fun to watch lil Kim banging his shoe on the podium

He could bang his little shoe (slipper) on the podium, or his lillipop. Theres no telling how much candy he's hiding in those chubby cheeks of his.

 

[Grey Havoc]

A PAC-3 system is deployed at the Defense Ministry in Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo, early Tuesday.

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0000119478​

 

[Deino]

Sadly for others since only in German but here's an interesting estimation by a Chinese analyst (Zhang Liangui) for the FAZ:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/warnung-aus-china-nordkorea-ueberschaetzt-seine-militaerischen-moeglichkeiten-12144004.html

Deino

 

[kcran567]

Have you guys seen the N Korean antimissile system, Here it is:

 

[chuck4]

Have you guys seen the N Korean antimissile system, Here it is:

Well, an antimissile system half way between trebuchet and THAAD have actually been tried.


The chinese tried to develop an ABM system in the mid 1970s in which the terminal defense component consisted of a 16.5 inch high velocity cannon shooting at warheads that penetrates a normal missile screen. I don't know if the gun was to depended purely on exceptionally accurate gun laying, or if the shell was itself nuclear or had some terminal homing capability.


The system was abandoned in the early 1980s But some components of it survive and is now open to public.

 

[Jemiba]

Sadly for others since only in German but here's an interesting estimation by a Chinese analyst (Zhang Liangui) for the FAZ:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/warnung-aus-china-nordkorea-ueberschaetzt-seine-militaerischen-moeglichkeiten-12144004.html

Deino

Interesting article ! For short: The principle aim is the re-union of Korea under the leadership of NK, as that would be regarded
as the "raison d'etre" for the Kim-family: Foundation of the stae by Kim Il-Sung, build-up of a strong military by Kim Jong-Il and
now the re-union under Kim Jon-Un. THe leadership believes, that with the second nuclear test the foundation for a forced
re-union was lead.
As the most important reason for this plan, Zhang Liangui reagrds the hubris of NK, which sees not even a problem in beating the US,
as after years of demagogism and propaganda, this is actually believed to be true.

 

[starviking]

We're pretty puzzled here in Japan - the big day, April 10th, went by without any fireworks.

Here's hoping some injection of common sense has been delivered to the NK leadership, though I personally doubt in

 

[shedofdread]

Does anyone have any theories as to the 'back down' strategy NK will adopt? It strikes me that their position has got a little extreme to back down easily and retain 'face'.

The people of NK must be aware [to a varying degree] of the stance their dear leader is taking internationally and when / if he backs down, how will that play internally?

Just pondering and hoping for the best...

 

[Gridlock]

We're pretty puzzled here in Japan - the big day, April 10th, went by without any fireworks.

A missile was reportedly raised on its launcher - perhaps they lost the keys.

 

[chuck4]

Does anyone have any theories as to the 'back down' strategy NK will adopt? It strikes me that their position has got a little extreme to back down easily and retain 'face'.

The people of NK must be aware [to a varying degree] of the stance their dear leader is taking internationally and when / if he backs down, how will that play internally?

Just pondering and hoping for the best...

His climb down strategy would be the same as the Kim family's have always been. He will continue to escalate and bet that someone else (probably the chinese) will eventually be unnerved by the increasing tension and will get everyone else to agree to put something on the table which he could portray as a concession to his internal, rigidly information controlled, audience. In return he would offer some concessions which he would portray to his internal audience not as a concession, but as evidence of his great magnanimity, boundless reasonableness, and undying love of peace. He would get a breathing room, and then when he wants something else, he would renege on the concessions he has made, so he can begin the cycle all over again and sell the same concession twice.

To break this cycle, there would need to be one instance when everyone else would muturally agree to match North Korea escalation for escalation without giving him anything he can protray as concession, until Kim really runs out of escalations short of a real war. This must include preparedness to match armed provacation with armed retaliation, an real acceptance of risk of enlarging the armed hostility as well as a prepared and muturally agreed script for how to end the war with an outcome acceptable to major actors other than North Korea. This is the tricky part, to get everyone else to muturally agree. If he suspects his demise no longer presents an insoluble problem for the Chinese, he would immediately become more tame.

 

[Triton]

"Cheney to GOP leaders: ‘We’re in deep doo doo’ on North Korea"
Posted by
CNN Senior Congressional Producer Deirdre Walsh

Source:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/04/09/cheney-to-gop-leaders-were-in-deep-doo-doo-on-north-korea/?hpt=hp_t2

(CNN) – Republican leaders in Congress received a dire warning on Tuesday from former Vice President Dick Cheney on the ongoing crisis in North Korea.

“We’re in deep doo doo,” Cheney told lawmakers, according to a GOP leadership aide.

Cheney added the current North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, is unpredictable and doesn't share the United States worldview.

One lawmaker present at the session, Rep. Steve Southerland of Florida, said Cheney wore a cowboy hat and "looked really good, spoke really clearly, lucidly.”

“It was nice to see him doing well,” Southerland said, noting the last time Cheney was on Capitol Hill he "didn’t look good – very frail, but in this meeting he looked great."

Cheney, 72, underwent a successful heart transplant in 2012 after a series of heart attacks over many years.

Southerland said Cheney spent about 10 minutes in the GOP leadership meeting Tuesday, and didn't give any specific policy recommendations or critiques of how the Obama administration is handling the situation in North Korea.

Cheney talked about the North Korean leader, Southerland said, and shared some of his history dealing with Saddam Hussein, noting "you never know what they're thinking."

Southerland, summarizing the former vice president’s remarks, said Cheney advised not to “eliminate any possibility.”

“Here's a young guy we don't know very much about – have very little intel on him, so we just need to make sure that we don't assume why he's doing what he's doing because he could be doing what he's doing for any number of reasons,” Southerland recalled Cheney saying.

Cheney also dropped by the weekly House GOP whip meeting at the invitation of Rep. Kevin McCarthy.

North Korea's war of words escalates - Timeline of a crisis

Cheney himself is a former House Republican whip.

"Whip McCarthy invited Vice President Cheney to discuss the ongoing situation on the Korean Peninsula with members of our whip team. We appreciate the vice president for sharing his insight and experience on the matter," a McCarthy aide told CNN.

The aide declined to say whether Cheney suggested any specific course of action on the situation in North Korea during this meeting.

 

[Triton]

Are we going to start hearing about regime change in North Korea by members of the United States government?

 

[chuck4]

Are we going to start hearing about regime change in North Korea by members of the United States government?

We can plan it, but we shouldn't talk openly about it if we think we would need chinese cooperation soon. For a whole array of psychiatric reasons, nothing would turn China into an instant heedless obstructionist against the west faster than the mention of the phrase "regime change".

 

[Mat Parry]

Well well well, didn't see this coming

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

 

[JFC Fuller]

Well well well, didn't see this coming

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Take it with a grain of salt, it is full of caveats, has yet to be approved and the South Korean's disagree.