Mystery shipbuilding project (China)

[Grey Havoc]

http://gcaptain.com/rumors-abound-china-places-order/
http://gcaptain.com/supertankers-china-freakin/

Assuming that Hanlon's Razor or similar is not in effect, it would seem likely that this is a cover for a naval project or a series of such projects. Two possibilities come to mind:

That the new construction will actually be logistical and/or other tonnage in support of future [COUGH]'contested reclamation'[COUGH] operations.

Or, the new hulls are indeed based on a modified VLCC design, but are intended as ballistic missile surface platforms, for the independent deployment of MRBMs or even ICBMs.


Your thoughts on the matter?

 

[chuck4]

You've watched reruns of "the spy who loved me" once too often.

 

[Grey Havoc]

;D

 

[CJGibson]

You missed this on the same page.

http://gcaptain.com/u-s-shale-boom-hurt-crude-tanker/

Soon be plenty of secondhand ones going.

Chris

 

[Michel Van]

and how is the reaction in USA, specially in pentagon and Capitol Hill ?

wait until Mitt Romney got hands on this news... :

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Assuming that Hanlon's Razor or similar is not in effect, it would seem likely that this is a cover for a naval project or a series of such projects. Two possibilities come to mind:

That the new construction will actually be logistical and/or other tonnage in support of future [COUGH]'contested reclamation'[COUGH] operations.

Or, the new hulls are indeed based on a modified VLCC design, but are intended as ballistic missile surface platforms, for the independent deployment of MRBMs or even ICBMs.

The only known military use for VLCC is as a mine clearer: Sperrbrecher style against old school contact mines. If there is any conspiracy associated with these ships is it may indicate that Chinese domestic oil production is going to taper out earlier than planned requiring a considerable increase in imports.

 

[Grey Havoc]

The only known military use for VLCC is as a mine clearer: Sperrbrecher style against old school contact mines. If there is any conspiracy associated with these ships is it may indicate that Chinese domestic oil production is going to taper out earlier than planned requiring a considerable increase in imports.

Even allowing for PRC style economics, I'm not sure that explanation holds water, given the global glut in VLCCs.

As for military uses, there is always a first time for everything.

Another, albeit unlikely, possibility I've come up with is that the hulls are meant to be major components for the construction of some sort of base (or even a settlement) in disputed waters.

 

[TomS]

No need to look for conspiracy theories here, I think. The stated goals of stimulating the struggling Chinese shipbuilding industry and shifting control of China's crude oil supply chain into domestic hands seems perfectly plausible to me. China has repeatedly shown itself willing to massively overbuild capital goods if it will keep favored businesses healthy. (Look at the huge glut of office buildings, for example.) And supply chain autonomy is right in line with their government's policies. (Consider the massive efforts to buy up raw material sources in Africa.) The fact that such a building program would damage non-Chinese shippers is irrelevant (or possibly a minor bonus).

 

[Triton]

It seems that China is thirsty for Iranian crude oil and Beijing publicly insists that it does not support the economic sanctions against Iran. I also wonder if China-flagged oil tankers will be granted immunity from attack if tensions rise in the Gulf? It's also possible that China anticipates an increase oil demand and needs an increase in transportation capacity when the VLCC ships enter service? Or perhaps it just wants the security of having its own fleet of VLCC ships rather than rely on the international shipping market or foreign-owned carriers.

 

[_Del_]

If there are fireworks in the gulf resulting in the loss of tankers there and in the straight, this might look forward-thinking. Or they are just giving a mass "busy-work" project to idling shipyards. Cheaper and creates less tension than building large naval hulls. They produce less than half of their demand despite being the fourth-largest oil producer. Maybe they just want to nationalize the importing fleet. Some combination of all the above? It's certainly odd.

 

[chuck4]

It seems inconceivable any conflict in the gulf would take out 50 VLCCs.

 

[_Del_]

Well, I was thinking no more than a half-dozen. I suppose a concerted effort to mine the straights combined with sudden small craft attacks and anti-ship missile installations from Abu Musa and Tunb might double that, but no one is going to risk a transiting the straights with a tanker once everyone the balloon goes up.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Is this related in some way I wonder: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jan/9/inside-china-china-fortifies-islands/

 

[Grey Havoc]

I came across this over on Shipbucket:

If the PLAN were planning something along the lines of the old Armed Supertanker concept, would the USN have the necessary conventional firepower to counter such vessels, especially in large numbers? Probably a worse case scenario, but then again, a lot of those seem to be coming true of late.