European BMD early warning and tracking satellites

Maro.Kyo

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I've figured that there is no thread regarding this topic on the forum, which is a bit surprising.

As far as I know, the first serious European attempts on acquiring space-based BMD early warning capabilities could be traced back to late 2000s, when France launched SPIRALE (Systeme Preparatoire Infra-Rouge pour l'Alerte/ Preparatory System for IR Early Warning) in 2009. Details about SPIRALE could be found on eoPORTAL ran by ESA. A bit after the launch of SPIRALE, Germany's OHB was proposing a early warning satellite constellation of up to 8 satellites called ATHENE, following NATO Lisbon Summit and their declaration to commitment to European missile defence capability.

One should note that around this point of time, NATO was claiming that their European missile defence program, spearheaded by EPAA that formalized in 2009, was not aiming Russian missiles and instead was there to counter 3rd world missile threats, mainly that of Iran. Anyways, for such reason, one could notice that proposed ATHENE satellites were supposed to observe boost phase of ballistic missiles from the Arab-Levant and Persian region, with low orbital inclination. similarly, SPIRALE was launched on a HEO orbit of 2° inclination. Also for this reason, OHB was mentioning that the ATHENE would possibly be launched (from Korou) by not only Vega but also Soyuz as well.

Though after the demonstration of SPIRALE and ATHENE proposals, it seems like there weren't much related developments that followed up. Although a civil war broke out in Ukraine involving Russia started in 2014 and tensions between Russia and NATO very much increased, I don't think that Europe was that keen of acquiring its own, serious BMD capability during this period, especially considering the fact that the signing of JCPOA significantly reduced a need for European BMD capability under what was claimed to be their defence capability goals.
 

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Fast forward 2019, the US has withdrawn from the INF treaty citing a Russian violation and now there's even a war. Russian tactical ballistic and hypersonic capabilities should very much be considered by the European members of NATO.

TWISTER was started in 2019 to address these issues and the sensor segment of TWISTER seems to include a boost-phase early warning satellite systems called the Space Based Missile Early Warning (SBMEW).

The initial study of SBMEW effort is called the ODIN's EYE (they say it's an acronym for multinatiOnal Development INitiative for a Space-based missilE earlY-warning architecture...). It will conclude by 2024 and will cost around €7,8 million. It is lead by OHB, which is to my surprise that it isn't led by France/Airbus, though French contribution through Airbus is clearly present. Project structure might just as well change in following stages. It's already a major European programme involving 13 nations.

 
Fast forward 2019, the US has withdrawn from the INF treaty citing a Russian violation and now there's even a war. Russian tactical ballistic and hypersonic capabilities should very much be considered by the European members of NATO.

TWISTER was started in 2019 to address these issues and the sensor segment of TWISTER seems to include a boost-phase early warning satellite systems called the Space Based Missile Early Warning (SBMEW).

The initial study of SBMEW effort is called the ODIN's EYE (they say it's an acronym for multinatiOnal Development INitiative for a Space-based missilE earlY-warning architecture...). It will conclude by 2024 and will cost around €7,8 million. It is lead by OHB, which is to my surprise that it isn't led by France/Airbus, though French contribution through Airbus is clearly present. Project structure might just as well change in following stages. It's already a major European programme involving 13 nations.

OHB? Hmmm... Is there a risk of split in early warning efforts like there was for the missile interception after TWISTER (cf EU HYDEF given to SENER, while MBDA complained and went their own way with HYDIS-AQUILA)?
 
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OHB? Hmmm... Is there a risk of split in early warning efforts like there was for the missile interception after TWISTER (cf EU HYDEF given to SENER, while MBDA complained and went their own way with HYDIS-AQUILA)?
Personally, I don't think that will be the case. Firstly French parties are also very much involved in form of Aibus DS, Thales and Thales Alenia, Ariane Space, etc. French contribution in the consortia seems to be just shy of German contribution, if not on par in terms of workshare. Secondly, without consolidating into a single program, I don't think individual European nations or smaller consortias centered around either France or Germany has the capacity to develop a full fledged suite of missile defence space based early warning (and possibly tracking, ala STSS or HBTSS) system and launch enough of constellation to fully cover the whole of NATO from Russian ballistic missile threats ranging from the Arctic, huge Russian in-land territory and possibly other players like Iran. For that they'll need systems working on at least two inclination orbits and possibly both in LEO and HEO.

What's possible is that in the future when SBMEW program matures, Germany and France can each take charge of the relevant sub-systems since it is quite likely that SBMEW will consist of at least two different satellites. US SIBARS comprised of 3 different satellites for instance and even after the LEO constellation was renamed STSS, it had GEO and HEO components. Similarly, NG OPIR has NGP and NGG components alongside HBTSS. So for example the OHB led team could lead the LEO component and the Airbus DS led team the HEO component.
 

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