ESA Ariane 6

20bn$ for an anemic launch capability. Wow.

Instead of pooring money into it like mad men, wouldn't fixing it be a more rational approach?
 
Last Thursday at dawn: the @Ariane6 #Combined #Test model is proudly standing into the #ZL4 #Mobile #Gantry.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1601931479528898565
View: https://twitter.com/thivallee/status/1601931479528898565


Last week, the #ELA4 gantry opened its doors to us again to reveal a most spatial spectacle: #Ariane6 complete and erected under the mobile gantry since mid-October. One of the highlights of this year 2022 at Europe's spaceport!
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1602263993929826304
View: https://twitter.com/EuropeSpacePort/status/1602263993929826304
 
Recently the FlugRevue magazine had a couple of interesting photos of the Ariane 6 launch site:
 

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The European launch sector is in a bad hole at the moment with no easy way out.

The French aerospace industries association, GIFAS, said Europe’s launch sector was in an “unprecedented crisis situation” with the delayed availability of Ariane 6 and the recent failure of the medium-lift Vega-C rocket.

But the organization, whose members include all major French launcher contractors, had no answer to the question: Now what?

Instead, during a Jan. 5 press briefing here, GIFAS officials painted a picture of an industry in passive mode, waiting until the governments of France, Germany and Italy . . .
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Two uncomfortable truths: Europe’s launch sector is in crisis, and no one knows how to end it – Space Intel Report

www.spaceintelreport.com www.spaceintelreport.com
 
During 15th European Space Conference on Tuesday in Brussels
Arianespace chief executive Stéphane Israël complain about the new european small launcher venture

"It is not possible to copy-paste the US model, It is not possible.
The level of space spending in the United States is five times higher than in Europe, and the private capital is not the same.
So if the answer is to say let's do what the US has done, I think we will not manage to do it."
Click to expand...

He continue that European Space Agency must resist supporting microlaunchers to the point
where these companies might compete with the existing capabilities.

A huge mistake would be that this focus on microlaunchers destabilizes Ariane 6 and Vega C—it would be a historic mistake, Microlaunchers can be of support to boost innovation. But we should not make any confusion. This launcher will never give autonomous access to space to Europe. They're on a niche market representing maybe 10 percent of the market,
and less than that when it comes to European needs.
Click to expand...

"We need a reusable heavy launcher,"
"Full stop. This is what we need. And I do not believe that Europe can afford two, three, or four big or heavy, reusable launchers.
It will, for sure, [require] a lot of public money, industrial excellency,
and I am more confident than ever that it will require solidarity in Europe to make it happen."
Click to expand...
Israël believes that Europe's existing launch monopoly should retain that monopoly for decades to come.

next to that ArianeGroup CEO André-Hubert Roussel is pointing to ESA oversight as being the reason that Ariane 6 is delayed.
also AirbusSpace executive vice president Jean Marc Nasr is advocating for monopolies...

Current state: Ariane 5 on phase out, Ariane 6 is delay to 2024, Vega C has issues with second stage and can't not fly.
In Mean time a Dozent European companies are working on microsat launchers and bigger rockets
like wise in USA and China...
Source:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1618029408547127297
View: https://twitter.com/arstechnica/status/1618029408547127297

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617868378177433601
View: https://twitter.com/AndrewParsonson/status/1617868378177433601

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617875499564556288
View: https://twitter.com/AndrewParsonson/status/1617875499564556288
 
What happen in Brussels
Was desperate attempt of ArianeGroup and AirbusSpace to keep their decade old Monopol.
Since 1979 both build Rockets and launch satellites for ESA and Customers.

But all good things have to end. As in 2015 a Falcon 9 rocket return to launch site and landed.
SpaceX launch now 200 Falcon 9 and landed save 90 time in row, dropping launch cost.
Suddenly Russian and ArianeGroup launch cost were expensive.
ArianeGroup and AirbusSpace made fatal decision 10 years ago to keep Ariane 6 expendable,
and therefore keep their industry running.
now Ariane 6 was build lower cost for Ariane 62 is 90 million euros and Ariane 64 its 115 million euros.
only problem Falcon 9 has launch cost 48 million euros while Falcon Heavy 89 million euros !!!

Ariane 6 need 72 launches to recover R&D cost of 5 billion euro.
currently it got only 42 launches contracts (18 from Kuiper system because Bezos not want launch with SpaceX)
also in 2022 ArianeSpace launch THREE Ariane 5, while SpaceX launch SIXTY Falcon 9
as Customers who you take, the expensive one with new rocket, or the cheaper reliable rocket ?

Ariane 6 is delay again, because issue of Vega-C that use same hardware on Solid booster.
in Mean time SpaceX is testing a 5000 tons booster at Texas,
and Rocket Lab building in there Bond Lair a reusable rocket...

and there Micro launcher
In Europe, USA and China, building dozen start up companies small satellite launcher, with plans for bigger rockets !
now this is real danger for ArianeGroup and AirbusSpace to lose more Customers.
once those start up successfully launch, Vega-C is trouble do competition

Stéphane Israël made fatal mistake, even ESA drop the Europans Micro launcher in favour of Vega-C.
The start up companies in USA and China will succeed, providing lower launch cost compare to Vega-C,
but ArianeGroup need Vega-C to keep high production of P120 needed also by Ariane 6.
once the demand for Vega-C/E drops the production cost rise also Launch cost of Ariane 6
making launching Falcon 9 a bargain...
 
In a previous millennium on another continent, I was a member of a multinational team working on the Future European Space Transportation Investigation Programme (FESTIP) for ESA, and all I'll say is there were way bolder and in my view realistic reusable options presented that would have been far superior to the utterly pathetic Ariane 6 spot the differences dildo throwaway clone of the Ariane 5, but I'm not bitter at all...
 
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As said before on this thread I really don’t think Ariane 6 will launch this year.

Marco Fuchs, CEO of OHB, does not believe that Ariane 6 will be launched in 2023.
MT Aerospace, a subsidiary of OHB, builds fuel tanks for the Ariane 6.

A column by Marco Fuchs: thoughts about time and space
"I strongly believe in the Rocket Factory – withdrawal is out of the question"
No space flight without rockets. Why this is the hour of the microlauncher.

20 March 2023.
...
Ariane 6, the successor to Ariane 5, is in a crisis, and in my estimation it will be at least another year before the first launch.
...
Click to expand...
source: https://www.ohb.de/en/magazine/spac...ry-augsburg-withdrawal-is-out-of-the-question
 
Same thoughts here Flyaway, I too don’t think that we will see an Ariane 6 launch this year perhaps early next year if Arianespace can get the issues sorted.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1648306055301005313
View: https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1648306055301005313


Wow. The Ariane 6 is proving to be a disaster for European space policy. Hard to say it is otherwise at this point.
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www.politico.eu

EU turns to Elon Musk to replace stalled French rocket

Brussels is looking to negotiate a ‘security agreement’ with US to keep its space program running.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

EU turns to Elon Musk to replace stalled French rocket
Brussels is looking to negotiate a ‘security agreement’ with US to keep its space program running.
BY JOSHUA POSANER AND LAURENS CERULUS
APRIL 17, 2023 5:40 PM CET

The European Commission wants to cut deals with private American space companies like Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch cutting-edge European navigation satellites due to continued delays to Europe's next generation Ariane rocket system.
Click to expand...
 
Flyaway said:
Now Ariane 6 is losing commercial launch orders.

Click to expand...
Since a trusty Falcon Heavy just deliver a ViaSar-3 in GEO for 89 million euros.
Why take untested Ariane 6 with issue on Solid booster for 115 million euros ?

EU turns to Elon Musk to replace stalled French rocket
Brussels is looking to negotiate a ‘security agreement’ with US to keep its space program running.
BY JOSHUA POSANER AND LAURENS CERULUS
APRIL 17, 2023 5:40 PM CET

The European Commission wants to cut deals with private American space companies like Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch cutting-edge European navigation satellites due to continued delays to Europe's next generation Ariane rocket system.
Click to expand...
ROFL
Since Russians left French Guiana, ESA missing the Soyuz to launch those Galileo satellites,
because Ariane 6 is delay again and too expensive and Blue Origin unable to Perform the act, launching something into Orbit.
While ULA get Vulcan ready for test launch and Rocket Lab building their Newton ready for 2024.
Who remains ? SpaceX !

i would not be surprised, if Spaceport French Guiana, gets a Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch complex...
 
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I would not be surprised at the news that Arianespace is loosing customers Flyaway, after the issues with Ariane 6 have not been solved yet. I do wish that they would get the problems that are currently plaguing the rocket sorted out, SpaceX will be getting a lot more customers at the expense of Arianespace.
 
FighterJock said:
I would not be surprised at the news that Arianespace is loosing customers Flyaway, after the issues with Ariane 6 have not been solved yet. I do wish that they would get the problems that are currently plaguing the rocket sorted out, SpaceX will be getting a lot more customers at the expense of Arianespace.
Click to expand...
At least at the moment it doesn’t appear that the commercial market has much faith in Ariane 6 as a competitive launcher.
 
FighterJock said:
I would not be surprised at the news that Arianespace is loosing customers Flyaway, after the issues with Ariane 6 have not been solved yet. I do wish that they would get the problems that are currently plaguing the rocket sorted out, SpaceX will be getting a lot more customers at the expense of Arianespace.
Click to expand...
The History of Arianespace and Ariane rocket is of insane underdogs

The Ariane 1 came like phoenix out ashes of ELDO Europa rocket program.
and was low cost, low tech Approach to launch European satellites.
in mean time NASA build Space Shuttle how promise low cost access into Space,
and Satellite Market was laughing at Ariane program and goal to launch commercial satellite.
but Shuttle not performed as planned, lower fights rate with to high cost, then happen Challenger
Suddenly Ariane 1-2 were attractive launcher, in fact they were ONLY launcher available,
after Titan IIID went Krabooom over launch site...

For next 10 years Arianespace were king on Hill with Ariane 3 and 4, then came Hermes and Ariane 5.
Suddenly the Ariane 4 series was toxic bandwagon and too expensive and Ariane 5 was "cheaper"
Hermes never flew, but Ariane 5 became ESA work horse for next 10 years what could possible goes wrong ?
but there was issue no medium payload what Ariane 4 could launch
So Arianespace took Russian to build Soyuz launch pad in French Guiana, not Ariane 4 - the old Soyuz rocket...
The Ariane 5 "needed" a replacement and almost the Italian solid motor Mafia won with Solid Ariane 6
Until France and Germans aerospace industry intervene and demanded revision what became our Ariane 6.

in mean time a Underdog in Rocket industry made something never see before,
12. December 2015 a SpaceX rocket return to launch site and landed near by !
This change the launch Industry, SpaceX push launch price to that of they promise for Shuttle !
They kick Russian out international Launch Business, becoming worst competitor for Arianespace, ULA etc...

ESA and Arianespace reaction ? a conservative R&D program that look into option Reuse of Ariane rocket for 2030 !
2022 Both were hit by reality as SpaceX conduct SIXTY launches and Arianespace only THREE !
until they ready in 2030 for Ariane 7, they face SpaceX Starship, RocketLab Newton, maybe Blue Origin New Glenn,
And What ever they build and launch in China, India, South Korea, Brasil, Turkey, New Ukraine, etc...
 
Flyaway said:
Other than guaranteeing Europe’s continued independent access to space, and at least aiming to reduce launch costs, I don’t think there is much else you can say in favour of Ariane 6 at this stage.
Click to expand...
I can say another thing: at least we’re not in the same situation while waiting for PPH Ariane 6 :p

Michel Van said:
Flyaway said:
Now Ariane 6 is losing commercial launch orders.

Click to expand...
Since a trusty Falcon Heavy just deliver a ViaSar-3 in GEO for 89 million euros.
Why take untested Ariane 6 with issue on Solid booster for 115 million euros ?

EU turns to Elon Musk to replace stalled French rocket
Brussels is looking to negotiate a ‘security agreement’ with US to keep its space program running.
BY JOSHUA POSANER AND LAURENS CERULUS
APRIL 17, 2023 5:40 PM CET

The European Commission wants to cut deals with private American space companies like Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch cutting-edge European navigation satellites due to continued delays to Europe's next generation Ariane rocket system.
Click to expand...
ROFL
Since Russians left French Guiana, ESA missing the Soyuz to launch those Galileo satellites,
because Ariane 6 is delay again and too expensive and Blue Origin unable to Perform the act, launching something into Orbit.
While ULA get Vulcan ready for test launch and Rocket Lab building their Newton ready for 2024.
Who remains ? SpaceX !

i would not be surprised, if Spaceport French Guiana, gets a Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch complex...
Click to expand...
Wait... There are recent problems with the P120C??????? Did they find something with VegaC? I've not heard of it, pls don't be true.
After Soyuz, I don't think CSG and ESA will want any non-european launcher in Kourou anytime soon...

Michel Van said:
FighterJock said:
I would not be surprised at the news that Arianespace is loosing customers Flyaway, after the issues with Ariane 6 have not been solved yet. I do wish that they would get the problems that are currently plaguing the rocket sorted out, SpaceX will be getting a lot more customers at the expense of Arianespace.
Click to expand...
The History of Arianespace and Ariane rocket is of insane underdogs

The Ariane 1 came like phoenix out ashes of ELDO Europa rocket program.
and was low cost, low tech Approach to launch European satellites.
in mean time NASA build Space Shuttle how promise low cost access into Space,
and Satellite Market was laughing at Ariane program and goal to launch commercial satellite.
but Shuttle not performed as planned, lower fights rate with to high cost, then happen Challenger
Suddenly Ariane 1-2 were attractive launcher, in fact they were ONLY launcher available,
after Titan IIID went Krabooom over launch site...

For next 10 years Arianespace were king on Hill with Ariane 3 and 4, then came Hermes and Ariane 5.
Suddenly the Ariane 4 series was toxic bandwagon and too expensive and Ariane 5 was "cheaper"
Hermes never flew, but Ariane 5 became ESA work horse for next 10 years what could possible goes wrong ?
but there was issue no medium payload what Ariane 4 could launch
So Arianespace took Russian to build Soyuz launch pad in French Guiana, not Ariane 4 - the old Soyuz rocket...
The Ariane 5 "needed" a replacement and almost the Italian solid motor Mafia won with Solid Ariane 6
Until France and Germans aerospace industry intervene and demanded revision what became our Ariane 6.

in mean time a Underdog in Rocket industry made something never see before,
12. December 2015 a SpaceX rocket return to launch site and landed near by !
This change the launch Industry, SpaceX push launch price to that of they promise for Shuttle !
They kick Russian out international Launch Business, becoming worst competitor for Arianespace, ULA etc...

ESA and Arianespace reaction ? a conservative R&D program that look into option Reuse of Ariane rocket for 2030 !
2022 Both were hit by reality as SpaceX conduct SIXTY launches and Arianespace only THREE !
until they ready in 2030 for Ariane 7, they face SpaceX Starship, RocketLab Newton, maybe Blue Origin New Glenn,
And What ever they build and launch in China, India, South Korea, Brasil, Turkey, New Ukraine, etc...
Click to expand...
In Hindsight, the Ariane 5->6 transition being difficult was set in stone 20 years ago, when within the span of a year, new significant development on Ariane 5 (ESC-B) was stopped, Vega and Soyuz-Kourou were funded, and it was decided to keep Ariane 5's commercial prospect afloat with hundreds of millions of EGAS subsidies a year.
But it could have just been a difficult transition, it didn't have to be the disaster it came to be, absolutely not.
 
TheKutKu said:
Wait... There are recent problems with the P120C??????? Did they find something with VegaC? I
Click to expand...
There is some "problems" with Vega-C second stage, Zefiro 40
(certain is cause that the nozzle blow off from structural casing made of carbon fibre)
and the Ariane 6 P120 used as first stages of Vega-C, ESA and Arianespace look every aspect in Case.
Since P120 and Zefiro 40 are made from pre-impregnated epoxy sheets through filament winding and automatic fabric deposition.
Because if Vega style failure happen during Ariane 6 lift-off the Payload is doomed...
 
Michel Van said:
TheKutKu said:
Wait... There are recent problems with the P120C??????? Did they find something with VegaC? I
Click to expand...
There is some "problems" with Vega-C second stage, Zefiro 40
(certain is cause that the nozzle blow off from structural casing made of carbon fibre)
and the Ariane 6 P120 used as first stages of Vega-C, ESA and Arianespace look every aspect in Case.
Since P120 and Zefiro 40 are made from pre-impregnated epoxy sheets through filament winding and automatic fabric deposition.
Because if Vega style failure happen during Ariane 6 lift-off the Payload is doomed...
Click to expand...
Oh right I feared the worst.
Well everything I’ve seen both before and after Avio’s official explanation (since there are some doubts about how well the investigation was done) point to a nozzle failure, which for the Zefiro 40 is, afaik, designed and built by a completely different set of companies than the P120C's which are mostly french and belgian. So unless they've found wider design issues with the P120C's tank I'm not too concerned.
 
I would say even early 2024 is doubtful.

Key supplier for Ariane 6 projects first launch early 2024.
https://spacenews.com/ohb-expects-first-ariane-6-launch-in-early-2024/

In a May 10 earnings call, executives with German aerospace company OHB predicted that the rocket will make its long-delayed debut within the first several months of 2024, the strongest indication yet by those involved with the rocket’s development that it will not be ready for launch before the end of this year.

“It’s not yet launched, but we hope that it will launch in the early part of next year,” said Marco Fuchs, chief executive of OHB, of Ariane 6 during a presentation about the company’s first quarter financial results. A subsidiary of OHB, MT Aerospace, produces tanks and structures for the rocket.
Click to expand...
 
We are getting into mid-2024 and so that even an early 2024 first launch for Ariane 6 is looking highly unlikely, I would go further and say that it may be impossible to have a first launch in 2024 at all.
 
I would rather wish that ArianeGroup would concentrate on getting the baseline Ariane 6 rocket launched in it's current configuration instead of going ahead and thinking about the future possibilities of the rocket, then when they are certain that there is nothing wrong with the current configuration then start to develop future variants.
 
Then people would be whining that Arianespace isn't developing reusability quickly enough.
 
Hobbes said:
Then people would be whining that Arianespace isn't developing reusability quickly enough.
Click to expand...

If I were obliged to provide cheese to all the NASAspaceflight whinne... even as a frenchman from a country with more than 400 different breed, brands and flavors of cheese, I couldn't face the demand... "the whinner takes it all" could be that forum new motto.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1666889246618144768
View: https://twitter.com/AschbacherJosef/status/1666889246618144768

"As promised, Ariane 6 update - Next expected update: late July."

Ariane 6 joint update report, 8 June 2023

Recent achievements

May 2023: a first batch of documentation has been delivered as planned for the overall launch system qualification review allowing to confirm the beginning of this review end June.

Early June 2023: the configuration of the avionic platform (iron bird) which is used for qualifying the avionic system including flight software with hardware in the loop has been changed and is now ready for the qualification tests in flight configuration. The avionic platform has been used successfully for qualifying the avionic system necessary for the Combined Tests.

Ongoing: The Combined Test specimen of the rocket is a functional model in an Ariane 64 configuration. It is assembled on the launch pad at Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou and used for the combined tests together with the qualified ground segment installations. Electrical interfaces have been connected and functional checks have been performed, using the control bench that is part of the launch pad. Fluidic interfaces have been connected in May and functional checks are being completed, as an important step towards loading/de-loading of the launcher model with fluids which is planned before summer break.

Ongoing: In Europe, the assembly of the elements of the first Flight Model (FM1, the launcher for the inaugural flight) is well advanced. Modules integration is progressing in ArianeGroup’s factories in Les Mureaux and Bremen. In Les Mureaux, operations started in the Pre-FAL1 (first step of the Final Assembly Line in mainland Europe for the Lower Propulsive Module) with the integration of the hydrogen tank. In French Guiana, the two P120C solid rocket motors have been cast (FM1 is an Ariane 62 configuration).

Ongoing: The launch base technical qualification review was started in December. The first part (excluding the control bench) concluded in April. The review did not raise major concerns on the qualification. The second step of the technical qualification review dealing with the control bench was started at the end of May and will be concluded mid-June 2023.
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https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transportation/Ariane_6_joint_update_report_8_June_2023
 
At last some positive news on Ariane 6, the rocket is now on the pad and ready for testing.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1668191794062938118
View: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1668191794062938118


Peter B. de Selding @pbdes
Ariane 6 progress report: Autumn test firing of 2d stage by @DLR_de added to schedule. Assembly of inaugural-flight vehicle to start in November. @esa @CNES @ArianeGroup @Arianespace .
bit.ly

Ariane 6: Autumn test firing of upper stage added to schedule; assembly of 1st flight vehicle to start in November - Space Intel Report

PARIS — Government and industry managers of Europe’s heavy-lift Ariane 6 rocket have added an additional…
bit.ly bit.ly
Click to expand...

www.spaceintelreport.com

Ariane 6: Autumn test firing of upper stage added to schedule; assembly of 1st flight vehicle to start in November - Space Intel Report

PARIS — Government and industry managers of Europe’s heavy-lift Ariane 6 rocket have added an additional…
www.spaceintelreport.com www.spaceintelreport.com
 
"Autumn test firing of second stage"
This is an official indication Maiden launch has slipped to 2024, since further certification will take several months after the completion of the S2 tests
 
I had thought that it would go that way, with a 2024 launch date, now things are looking better with a test firing of the second stage.
 
TheKutKu said:
"Autumn test firing of second stage"
This is an official indication Maiden launch has slipped to 2024, since further certification will take several months after the completion of the S2 tests
Click to expand...
Not in the least surprising TBH.
 

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