Enola Gay over Berlin?

[Justo Miranda]

-Hitler decides not to manufacture the V-weapons.

-Resources are devoted to the manufacture of 50,000 fighters, three million R4M 55 mm air-to-air rockets and six million R4MP 88 mm air-to-ground rockets.

-Large formations of Focke-Wulf 190 A-8 fighters escorted by Messerschmitt Bf 109 G-14 AS cause huge losses to American bombers in three major battles over the Franco-German border, the Eighth Air Force must retreat to its British bases to await the new B-29 bombers escorted by P-80 jet fighters.

-Large formations of Focke-Wulf 190 F-8 fighter-bombers destroy the Red Army's armored vanguard, paralyzing the Soviet offensive and stabilizing the Eastern Front.

-Only the nuclear option remains.

Do you think it's a believable story?

 

[Orionblamblam]

Given Hitlers hard-on for offense and disdain for defense, it's unlikely he'd make such a choice. If one of the numerous assassination attempts had succeeded, though, in time for such a decision to be made by whoever replaced him, then, maybe.

 

[uk 75]

We are into classic Luftwaffe 1946 or Wehrmacht 47 territory not to mention various paperback thrillers. French graphic novels also love this period. A number of boardgames also address alt WW2 scenarios (see Boardgamegeek).
Had the invasion of Europe in 1944 been drawn out and the Reich had survived into 1946 as a fighting power it is likely that consideration would have been given to using a B29 to hit two German cities (not Berlin as with Tokyo) with Atom Bombs.
The bombing of Dresden suggests that the US and UK would have had no inhibitions.
But equally the Nazi leadership were more suicidal than Hirohito. Doenitz or Borman or whoever stepped into Hitler's shoes may have responded by deciding that as the West was now as ruthless as Stalin in the East, Germany had no reason to surrender.
Stalin too may have wondered whether Russian lives were worth sacrificing if the US now had such weapons.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Second question: Night or day launch? Third question: Option A: The bomb explodes and kills all the Nazi leaders. Option B: The bomb does not explode and is captured intact. Option C: The bomb doesn't go off, it falls into a lake near Berlin, and no one knows it's there. I don't feel capable of writing this story but I wish someone did... even in comics.

 

[martinbayer]

-Hitler decides not to manufacture the V-weapons.

-Resources are devoted to the manufacture of 50,000 fighters, three million R4M 55 mm air-to-air rockets and six million R4MP 88 mm air-to-ground rockets.

-Large formations of Focke-Wulf 190 A-8 fighters escorted by Messerschmitt Bf 109 G-14 AS cause huge losses to American bombers in three major battles over the Franco-German border, the Eighth Air Force must retreat to its British bases to await the new B-29 bombers escorted by P-80 jet fighters.

-Large formations of Focke-Wulf 190 F-8 fighter-bombers destroy the Red Army's armored vanguard, paralyzing the Soviet offensive and stabilizing the Eastern Front.

-Only the nuclear option remains.

Do you think it's a believable story?

I think that apart from any technical/tactical/strategic considerations, like for example the successful Allied Operation Overlord Western European continental invasion in 1944 vs. the tedious island hopping warfare in the Pacific, if both Germany and Japan would have been still actively fighting by the time the first operational atomic bomb was available, it would have come down to which nation would have been considered more fanatical/fierce in their fighting, and for all their bombastic bluster the Nazis never produced anything like Kamikaze pilots or soldiers that held out for decades after the war was over, see e.g. the list at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_holdout. My best guess is that in the eyes of US intelligence, Japan, based on its deeply rooted homogeneous imperial culture, society, and history, with the Tennos going back well over a Millennium, combined with its literally fractured geography, as opposed to the fake mythological cosplay Thousand-Year Reich made up by that wretched Austrian wannabe upstart Adolf Schickelgruber with its firmly continental location, would be much more prone to prolong the conflict, so even if Germany hadn't fallen yet in May 1945, Japan would most likely still have been the first nut to crack nuclearly, so to speak. As an aside, I think the US should have dropped the first nuke on Mount Fuji as a national landmark/shrine for demonstrative/psychological/symbolic value, and only in case of subsequent noncompliance with a surrender dropped the second bomb on a population center, but it seems the purpose of both nukes was to obtain comparative damage data of the two different designs - I guess all things are fair in love and war...

 

[Antonio]

Speculative B-29 operations against the III Reich

Here’s why the B-29 could have had a higher loss rate than the B-17 and B-24 over Germany in 1943 - The Aviation Geek Club

Here’s why the B-29 could have had a higher loss rate than the B-17 and B-24 over Germany in 1943

theaviationgeekclub.com

 

[archipeppe]

Nope.

Even if Hitler would have one million fighters would have ran out of fuel the very same.
The Me 262 alone used immediately as air superiority fighter would become a true nightmare if Luftwaffe had only enough fuel...

This is a no way scenario.

 

[Hood]

Was there even anything left worth bombing, even if somehow a stalemate or delaying action was fought on all fronts (West, Italy, East), the RAF and USAAF would have pretty soon been running out of places to flatten and incinerate. Plus with Allied troops already taking the Ruhr and closing in on Berlin and Vienna, the list of targets shrinks even further.

Mind you, if we're going all out AH we could speculate if the Allies would bother to partition Berlin and just leave the Soviets with an irradiated burned out wreck of a city. So no Berlin Airlift, no 1961 crisis, no Berlin Wall, no stuffed up announcement in 1989, no TV crews, no immediate collapse of the GDR, no reunification of Germany in 1990.

Plus, looking at it psychologically, timber-cities in Japan were easily razed to the ground even with conventional incendiary attack and made Hiroshima look worse - being swept level apart from concrete buildings. A nuked Berlin would look little different from the ruins of Frankfurt, Hamburg or wherever, so it wouldn't look any worse. Any images of burned German civilians then gets contrasted with the liberated death camps and public sympathy goes, suddenly nuclear warfare doesn't look so unjustified.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Nope.

Even if Hitler would have one million fighters would have ran out of fuel the very same.
The Me 262 alone used immediately as air superiority fighter would become a true nightmare if Luftwaffe had only enough fuel...

This is a no way scenario.

That would be true only from May 1944.

Between May and September 1944, the US Eighth Air Force made eleven attacks on Leuna-Merseburg, the main production plant for petrol ersatz (synthetic hydrocarbons), stopping its activity. In November the Allies launched a bombing offensive against the hydrogenation plants of Nordstern-Gelsenkirchen, Nordstern-Wesserling, Scholven, Homberg, Wanne-Eickel, Sternkrade, Gastrop, Kamen, Bottrop, Dortmund, Hannover, Hamburg, Misburg, Bohlen, Zeitz and Lützendorf. The RAF Bomber Command launched 13,000 tons of bombs and the Eighth Air Force 14,000 tons. The US Fifteenth Air Force based in Italy attacked the plants located south of the Reich in Florisdorf, Moosbierbaum, Blechhammer South, Korneuberg, Vienna-Lubau and Linz.



By December, German fuel production fell to 151,000 tons of first grade gasoline (Grade C3, 96-octane), aviation base gasoline (Grade B4, 87-octane), gasoline-middle oil (B4 + motor oil) and J2 heavy kerosene for turbojets. Mostly affected production was that of the C3 and B4, that was used in piston engines of the fighters, with 25,000 tons only, compared to the anticipated 107,000 tons. Many small plants, also dedicated to the production of Benzol, were destroyed during the bombing attacks by zone, randomly made by the Bomber Command over industrial areas. During the last year of war in Europe, the RAF attacked 42 hydrogenation plants with 63,000 tons of bombs and the Eighth with 45,000 tons, finally achieving the collapse of the production system.



The piston engine fighters were most affected by the lack of fuel.

The German industrial capacity had been irreversibly eroded by the long naval blockade and continued bombardment. The situation was particularly serious for the piston engine manufacturers, who had already exhausted the chrome and molybdenum reserves needed to harden the steel. Special schmierstoff lubricants and B4 fuel were also lacking.

The shortage induced aircraft manufacturers to compete for available turbojets and rocket engines but only two firms had access to the scarce number of ‘Class I’ turbojets Jumo 004. One of them was Messerschmitt, to power the Me 262 jet fighter and the other was Arado, for the Ar 234 jet bomber.

 

[CJGibson]

Probably been a Lancaster, the original carrier for the Little Boy and Fat Man rather than the B-29. Until Groves got wind of it.

Chris

 

[paralay]

Where will the Americans get the enriched uranium in the right amount before Germany surrenders? The Germans will not deliver it by submarine. The scenario of a nuclear strike on Germany is possible, but, of course, not in 1945, but much later

 

[Dilandu]

Resources are devoted to the manufacture of 50,000 fighters,

Its impossible. Resources can't be just transferred from A to B, it's not a video game. The fighter manufacturing capabilities of Germany were already overloaded. And there weren't even remotely enough trained pilots to man 50.000 new fighters, even if they could be produced.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Its impossible. Resources can't be just transferred from A to B, it's not a video game. The fighter manufacturing capabilities of Germany were already overloaded. And there weren't even remotely enough trained pilots to man 50.000 new fighters, even if they could be produced.

No one knows how many aircraft the Germans made in 1944, my best estimate is about 40,000.

Paralyzed on land for lack of fuel many of them were destroyed by air strikes.

My theory is that if those planes had been manufactured in 1943, they would have changed the situation by preventing the destruction of fuel production.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Probably been a Lancaster, the original carrier for the Little Boy and Fat Man rather than the B-29. Until Groves got wind of it.

Chris

Probably been a Lancaster, the original carrier for the Little Boy and Fat Man rather than the B-29. Until Groves got wind of it.

Chris

I agree that a Lancaster flying in the second group of the bomber stream escorted by D.H. Mosquito Mk. 30s and large amounts of electronic jamming would have had a better chance than a B-29 flying by day among many escort fighters, but the Americans would never have allowed a British aircraft to win the war after having invested so many resources in the Manhattan Project.

 

[1635yankee]

Where will the Americans get the enriched uranium in the right amount before Germany surrenders? The Germans will not deliver it by submarine. The scenario of a nuclear strike on Germany is possible, but, of course, not in 1945, but much later

The same place that the US got the enriched uranium and manufactured plutonium used in real life: domestic production; it certainly was not shipped from Germany. IRL, the nazis surrendered before they were nuked; they didn't avoid being nuked because they were supplying weapons-grade uranium to the Manhattan Project.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Where will the Americans get the enriched uranium in the right amount before Germany surrenders?

"The uranium used in the Manhattan Project came from three major sources: the Eldorado mine in northern Canada, the Shinkolobwe mine in the Belgian Congo, and mines and mill tailings in the American West."

Manhattan Project: Places > Other Places > URANIUM MINES

 

[Dilandu]

No one knows how many aircraft the Germans made in 1944, my best estimate is about 40,000.

Paralyzed on land for lack of fuel many of them were destroyed by air strikes.

My theory is that if those planes had been manufactured in 1943, they would have changed the situation by preventing the destruction of fuel production.

Sigh. And my theory is that if USSR could produce T-44 and IS-3 in 1941, then there wouldn't be any Holocaust because Red Army would took Berlin in summer 1942. So what?

You can't just magically turn the unproduced V-1 and V-2 into Bf.109 and Fw.190. It's not a video game, when you have universal "money" or "industrial points" that you could freely switch between "vechicle plant" and "aircraft facility". Removal of V-1 from production lines would free very little of materials or resources that limited the production of fighter planes - mainly because the major argument behind V-1 was that those flying bombs would not require such materials in first place (and therefore would not affect the fighter production anyway)

 

[publiusr]

Second question: Night or day launch?

I’d imagine it would be a night launch.

B-29 perhaps above a few B-17s to draw fire…one word goes out over the radio:

“Drop”

The B-17s drop flares and run as Little Boy is descending.

Gun style nuke likely is not captured.

B-29 radio controlled after a small crew bails out over Coast with B-29 flying straight to draw fire.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Where will the Americans get the enriched uranium in the right amount before Germany surrenders? The Germans will not deliver it by submarine. The scenario of a nuclear strike on Germany is possible, but, of course, not in 1945, but much later

I think that's an interesting idea.

Sigh. And my theory is that if USSR could produce T-44 and IS-3 in 1941, then there wouldn't be any Holocaust because Red Army would took Berlin in summer 1942. So what?

You can't just magically turn the unproduced V-1 and V-2 into Bf.109 and Fw.190. It's not a video game, when you have universal "money" or "industrial points" that you could freely switch between "vechicle plant" and "aircraft facility". Removal of V-1 from production lines would free very little of materials or resources that limited the production of fighter planes - mainly because the major argument behind V-1 was that those flying bombs would not require such materials in first place (and therefore would not affect the fighter production anyway)

That is true, but the V-2 research was enormously costly in technical means, time, intelligence, and Reischmarks. In addition, I must say that the relocation of Russian factories to the Ural area was in itself an epic feat and that the construction of the T-44 is still considered a technical impossibility for Western manufacturing methods.

 

[Michel Van]

Between November 1944 and April 1945 several things happen
1. Total collapse of German war production
2. Down to last reserves of Petrol, were Wehrmacht, SS and Luftwaffe fight for last drop.
__And not for that synthetic crap that do horrible things to your engine..
3. Operation Bodenplatte in begin 1945, were The remains of Luftwaffe was eliminate.
__what let to lack of fighter pilots, and use of Hitler youth as Pilots of HE 162…

Even with massiv numbers of German fighter planes
In April 1945 the Enola Gay could flight relative save to Berlin at very high altitude…

 

[CJGibson]

Bet they'd still have some FlaK 40 rounds.

Chris

 

[alertken]

CJG #10's logic of Lanc would be night experience - but not for USAAF crew, and use of the Grand Slam/Tallboy fixtures (that i have read were actually used on the 2 B-29s). Note that no-one in a combat Command role knew about Manhattan; and that FDR, then HST were told before the Trinity success that it could be a dud. (others cogitated it could be quite the reverse, creating an endless chain reaction). So, when HST was told it worked, he...
- could have instructed a demo drop on some harmless spot;
- or could have ordered its use on a military target selected by GA Marshall as being best chance of saving 1 Allied soldier's life. 1;
- which could have been with, or without having a word with UK PM (who, with Canada, had helped to create it).

Now, purge conspiracy from our mind: that HST dismissed Axis casualties as being of no concern; or that he wanted to overawe Stalin; or that he did not dare "waste" $2Bn on a demo. No. He probably did not know the $2Bn number - no-one did at the time, who was counting?
He, FDR, Churchill, (UK DPM Attlee who became PM after Churchill had agreed to drop on a military target, but before that was done, so he could have made a noise), had one purpose: to save that 1 saveable soldier: every hour of every day our people were being lost or maimed.

If Germany had still been up when Trinity worked, GA Marshall might have asked one Policy Q before assigning the target: what is our best guess of status of Hitler's Bomb? To which the only A he should have been given was Dunno. So, then what?

Me: might I have sent one Bomb to Tinian, the other to Base Air Depot, Langford Lodge, NI (prepared from mid-1942 specifically for B-29) and told USAAF to drop them asap on best accessible from a small list of military targets.

 

[CJGibson]

I did examine this in Vulcan's Hammer.

Chris

 

[Orionblamblam]

I did examine this in Vulcan's Hammer.

Chris

Phil? Is that you?

 

[Scott Kenny]

Where do you drop it?

What cities in Germany were relatively undamaged by air attacks, yet still had some military production happening in them?

 

[uk 75]

My option would have been Nuremberg. Like Dresden it is a beautiful city but it had special symbolism as the site of the big Nazi rallies. If a second target was required, Munich is another Nazi symbolic city and a cultural centre.
Ghastly I know but the purpose of using the Bomb would be to bring home the war to the Nazi leaders. Hitler's residence at the Berghof might be the best choice.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Where do you drop it?

What cities in Germany were relatively undamaged by air attacks, yet still had some military production happening in them?

Approximately none. Production was distributed and a lot of it was underground, which Fat Man/Little Boy could have done fark all about. Unless you *truck* the bomb in and set it off at the mine entrance, those early nukes were necessarily air burst, which translated to very little subsurface damage. It would be *years* before laydown or penetrator nukes would be available.

 

[Dilandu]

Approximately none. Production was distributed and a lot of it was underground, which Fat Man/Little Boy could have done fark all about. Unless you *truck* the bomb in and set it off at the mine entrance, those early nukes were necessarily air burst, which translated to very little subsurface damage. It would be *years* before laydown or penetrator nukes would be available.

Actually not so much was underground, as simply disperced among rural areas and forests. The program of massive underground factories was nearly-universally considered a failure; while SOME were build and worked, the majority never were ever finished.

 

[Justo Miranda]

The Allies didn't need bunker-busting atomic bombs because they already had the Grand Slam and the Talboy, but in my opinion the nuclear option could have had a political utility in forcing the German surrender... eliminating the top of the Nazi power.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Phil? Is that you?

View attachment 724317

Phil lacked scientific knowledge but he was a good mass psychologist, he just followed the mainstream without contributing anything, in his books there is nothing that I can respect.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Actually not so much was underground, as simply disperced among rural areas and forests.

"Dispersed" makes for poor nuclear targets. Sure, you can set a forest ablaze, but napalm does that a hell of a lot cheaper.

Nazi Germany was pretty much far too bombed out to make an effective nuclear target. Even if production wasn't underground, the leadership often was. Bunkers would have done pretty well with a 20 kiloton air burst. And the city around them was largely trashed to begin with.

 

[Scott Kenny]

My option would have been Nuremberg. Like Dresden it is a beautiful city but it had special symbolism as the site of the big Nazi rallies. If a second target was required, Munich is another Nazi symbolic city and a cultural centre.
Ghastly I know but the purpose of using the Bomb would be to bring home the war to the Nazi leaders. Hitler's residence at the Berghof might be the best choice.

Yes, either of those would work for symbolism.

My question was assuming that this would still be a "test drop", where the allies would want data as to the effectiveness.

"Dispersed" makes for poor nuclear targets. Sure, you can set a forest ablaze, but napalm does that a hell of a lot cheaper.

Depends on whether you count the 1000 aircraft you need to drop the HE and napalm as part of the costs or not.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Depends on whether you count the 1000 aircraft you need to drop the HE and napalm as part of the costs or not.

Unlikely to lose a thousand bombers on a raid against a forest.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Unlikely to lose a thousand bombers on a raid against a forest.

But you still need to build all of them to do that raid.

Whereas an atomic bomb means one plane. Was the Luftwaffe as worn down as the IJA Air Corps, basically unable to stop single bombers from flying overhead?

 

[Yellow Palace]

Where will the Americans get the enriched uranium in the right amount before Germany surrenders?

You don't nuke Germany by making the atomic bomb earlier, but by making Germany last longer. You probably need a PoD back in 1940 or 1941 to delay the Soviet Union by six months or so. Because nobody is putting B-29s - and it would be B-29s - over Germany if it's already full of Soviet tanks.

Probably been a Lancaster, the original carrier for the Little Boy and Fat Man rather than the B-29. Until Groves got wind of it. [...] I did examine this in Vulcan's Hammer.

Did you? I've just had a skim and I can't find any mention of it.

AFAIK, the Lancaster option was only brought up as a stick to beat Boeing with when the B-29 was having technical issues. It was never a particularly serious proposal - and even if it was, they'd have been USAAF owned, crewed and operated, so fantasies of 617 Squadron dropping an atom bomb on Berlin are just that.

Speculative B-29 operations against the III Reich

... in 1943, at least six months before the B-29 was in operational service. Which isn't a reflection of how it would perform in 1945, after the main technical problems were resolved, with specially developed tactics to deliver a single nuclear weapon, and against a degraded German air defence system.

AFAIK, the proposed tactics for using the B-29 in Europe were to launch from Northern Ireland (as @alertken mentions) at reduced weight, run up to maximum speed/maximum altitude over the UK, and generally fly it like an oversized Mosquito with one hell of a bite. With ECM support and diversionary raids, all established features of bomber operations in Europe, there's no reason it shouldn't work.

 

[CJGibson]

Did you? I've just had a skim and I can't find any mention of it.

work.

Page 36, Col 1, Paras 2 and 3

Chris

 

[CJGibson]

Phil? Is that you?

View attachment 724317

I wish.

Chris

 

[Archibald]

Took me a while to realize that B-29s would fly out of Ireland and Egypt with B-36s flying from CONUS - this, on top of the OTL B-17s & B-24s flying out of Great Britain. Rings after rings of larger and more powerful bombers.
That was The Big Plan in 1942-43.

 

[Orionblamblam]

But you still need to build all of them to do that raid.

Already built by that point.

 

[TheKutKu]

You don't nuke Germany by making the atomic bomb earlier, but by making Germany last longer. You probably need a PoD back in 1940 or 1941 to delay the Soviet Union by six months or so. Because nobody is putting B-29s - and it would be B-29s - over Germany if it's already full of Soviet tanks.

Eh, it's probably possible in 1942 with a better case Blue.