I suspect it will actually be B-2 sized or close to it, but we'll have to see. The Chinese may see the B-21 program, with all its dubious design decisions, as a colossal own goal by the Americans.
 
I suspect it will actually be B-2 sized or close to it, but we'll have to see. The Chinese may see the B-21 program, with all its dubious design decisions, as a colossal own goal by the Americans.
The US have bases everywhere, and the Chinese don't. They can attack the Chinese mainland with bombers as is and the Chinese can't return the favor without causing M.A.D. . This is a massive advantage that enables a smaller and thus a stealthier bomber. OTOH the Chinese need to have a bomber with a long reach to deliver payloads to the CONUS, that alone is a design risk.

Anyway, yes there's still a chance that the H-20 may end up being intended for use mainly within the 3rd island chain; but the majority of seasoned PLA-watchers expect something more akin to the B-2 in terms of size and this is also suggested by the info that we've so far gotten.
 
Yes, my Master. Reduced bombload and range compared to the B-2 for one thing. Not nuclear qualified, at least for the near term, for another.
 
"Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency," - SecDef Lloyd Austin
 

“The thing with the H-20 is when you actually look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US LO [low observable] platforms, particularly more advanced ones that we have coming down,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon today.

“They’ve run into a lot of engineering design challenges, in terms of how do you actually make that system capability function in a similar way to, like, a B-2 or a B-21,” the official added.

Asked whether the H-20 is a concern, the official replied “Not really.”
 
Yes, my Master. Reduced bombload and range compared to the B-2 for one thing. Not nuclear qualified, at least for the near term, for another.
Range is unknown and likely to get greater than the B-2. Engines will be more fuel efficient, airframe aerodynamics improved, so if the fuel fraction stays the same then range will be better. Range scales to fuel fraction, not absolute volume.
 

“The thing with the H-20 is when you actually look at the system design, it’s probably nowhere near as good as US LO [low observable] platforms, particularly more advanced ones that we have coming down,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon today.

“They’ve run into a lot of engineering design challenges, in terms of how do you actually make that system capability function in a similar way to, like, a B-2 or a B-21,” the official added.

Asked whether the H-20 is a concern, the official replied “Not really.”
Yeah, tell that to our allies in the Pacific (ie: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, etc.).
 
"Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency," - SecDef Lloyd Austin
You'll notice he didn't actually give a range. It could be the most efficient, fuel-wise, aircraft on the planet and still not have long range if it doesn't carry a lot of fuel. And it doesn't help with its anemic payload.
 
Range is unknown and likely to get greater than the B-2. Engines will be more fuel efficient, airframe aerodynamics improved, so if the fuel fraction stays the same then range will be better. Range scales to fuel fraction, not absolute volume.
That may be an overly optimistic assessment there, given that the prime driver of the program from the day the subsonic concept was chosen has to been to keep down procurement and operating costs no matter the trade off, which was supposed to in turn allow the B-21 to reach critical mass in terms of numbers bought, a classic quantity over quality plan that is now showing signs of the wheels coming off what with the proposal to cap procurement at a 100 airframes, only less than a week after the Air Force had supposedly negotiated a cut in the unit price with NG, presumably based on an increase in the planned order and/or changes in the delivery schedule.
 
"Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency," - SecDef Lloyd Austin
You'll notice he didn't actually give a range. It could be the most efficient, fuel-wise, aircraft on the planet and still not have long range if it doesn't carry a lot of fuel. And it doesn't help with its anemic payload.

Contradictio in terminis
 
Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency. It won't need to be based in-theater. It won't need logistical support to hold any target at risk. - SecDef Lloyd Austin

Of course you can believe that three decades of aerodynamics and powerplant progress didn't add to range numbers of two-engined bomber versus its predecessors.
 
Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency. It won't need to be based in-theater. It won't need logistical support to hold any target at risk. - SecDef Lloyd Austin

Of course you can believe that three decades of aerodynamics and powerplant progress didn't add to range numbers of two-engined bomber versus its predecessors.
I can't believe I have to explain this. Range has to do with being efficient AND having a high fuel fraction. He said nothing about range or fuel fraction.
 
Not at all. It just means it's more efficient than the B-1B, B-52, B-2, and Blackjack. It does NOT mean it has longer range.

"Long-range bomber" and "an aircraft/bomber without long range" = contradiction
('long,' not 'longer')
 
"Long-range bomber" and "an aircraft/bomber without long range" = contradiction
('long,' not 'longer')
What is "long range"? A fully loaded B-1B, with no aerial refueling, ain't flying 6,000 miles.
 
That´s THE question. Personally, I´d consider any bomber with an intercontinental (transatlantic) range as a 'long-range' bomber.
I wouldn't want to have to count on aerial refueling over the Pacific. I think we're back in a, "what do we do if Britain falls" situation.
 
I wouldn't want to have to count on aerial refueling over the Pacific. I think we're back in a, "what do we do if Britain falls" situation.

'Britain' in this case being 'Guam'? Or does 'Australia' also count?
(I´m not sure whether Llyod Austin views Australia as being 'not in-theater')
A long-range bomber departing from CONUS which would lack 'somewhat' of the required (very) long range, could also be 'somewhat' aerial refueled in the more benign part of the Pacific.


How much less total volume does the B-21 have when compared to the B-2?
 
'Britain' in this case being 'Guam'? Or does 'Australia' also count?
(I´m not sure whether Llyod Austin views Australia as being 'not in-theater')
A long-range bomber departing from CONUS which would lack 'somewhat' of the required (very) long range, could also be 'somewhat' aerial refueled in the more benign part of the Pacific.


How much less total volume does the B-21 have when compared to the B-2?
No idea. I'd love to be wrong though.
 
I can't believe I have to explain this. Range has to do with being efficient AND having a high fuel fraction. He said nothing about range or fuel fraction.

Is there any reason To think fuel fraction went down?
 
I wouldn't want to have to count on aerial refueling over the Pacific. I think we're back in a, "what do we do if Britain falls" situation.

Austin specifically stated that the bomber would need no logistical support in theater. I read that to mean that it can tank near Alaska or Hawaii and complete a round trip mission to Chinese airspace. In fact I think one reason the payload is “anemic” as you put it is because payload volume was traded for fuel volume. I also suspect it uses far more efficient medium-high bypass engines compared to its predecessor. Range was one of the key enabling features besides penetration and price.
 
What is "long range"? A fully loaded B-1B, with no aerial refueling, ain't flying 6,000 miles.
We launched Bones to Anderson with tanks in the two forward bays and they still had to refuel to get there. Great circle on KDYS to PGUA is just under 6,200 Nm.
 
You'll notice he didn't actually give a range. It could be the most efficient, fuel-wise, aircraft on the planet and still not have long range if it doesn't carry a lot of fuel.
He still said:
Let's talk about the B-21's range. No other long-range bomber can match its efficiency. It won't need to be based in-theater. It won't need logistical support to hold any target at risk. - SecDef Lloyd Austin
It won't need logistical support to hold any target at risk. That says minimum 6000nmi combat radius to me, with a full bombload.

Now, they may be stretching the definition a bit to hit a tanker over the Eastern Pacific or even Alaska on the way to China and again on the way back, or it may be able to actually fly that far. You could pull some guesstimates from 767s doing the Tokyo-Seattle or Tokyo-LAX run. 777s have too high a bypass ratio to be reflective of the fuel economy I expect from the B21. Yes, this means I'm expecting something around a 5:1 bypass ratio for the B21's engines, +- 0.5.



And it doesn't help with its anemic payload.
24klbs is anemic? 30k if you drop out the rotary launcher for a MOP?

Yes, it's got half the bombload of a B2 (or so. There's some discussion over bay length which may allow for more bomb weight to be carried. Proportionally, it looks like the bay is over 4x the width, so it's roughly the size of a B52 bay which carried a rotary launcher and a quad rack of big booms.). Is that a problem based on increased accuracy of B61-12 or -13? Which, I will remind you, is basically a B61 nuke forebody with the JDAM tail kit installed on it.
 
Remember that the requirement was changed from supersonic dash to respond quickly especially to pop up targets/ get in and get out of threat zone quickly. Air Force realized that having subsonic speed with long loitering and ultra stealth would allow the bomber to 'stand in', which according to them, a much more effective way. So obviously this thing's range is gonna be insane and the stealth/EW (untested sure) to stay inside A2/AD over extended time.

Of course, that requirement could have been scaled back during development but I remember reading explicitly that was the reasoning behind subsonic speed rather than cost (it's not like USAF hadn't already developed stealth supersonic jets).
 

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