A younger and healthier Neville Chamberlain

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Brits are accustomed to thinking of Neville Chamberlain as a silly old buffer waving a piece of paper But he was for much of his career an ambitious and rather arrogant Tory politician. He died at 71 in 1940 after being ill for some time.
Had Chamberlain been ten years younger and in better health he rather than Winston Churchill might still have been Prime Minister in 1940. It is often forgotten that Churchill inspired strong emotions as Johnson does today though for different reasons.
Chamberlain was no pacifist but he believed war could only be won by sound money and careful husbanding of resources. Like.many Englishmen of his generation he saw land warfare on the Continent as a hideous waste and believed a combination of blockade by the Royal Navy and defence of Britain by airpower would enable her to prevail against Germany.and Italy. Though he had little time for Roosevelt he knew that as in World War 1 the USA would have to be brought into the war.
I suspect that after the Fall of France in 1940 he and his Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, would have sought a temporary peace agreement with Hitler much as Britain had done with Napoleon and Louis XIV.
Chamberlain loathed and distrusted Stalin so Britain would not have assisted either Russia or Germany in their inevitable clash.
The RAF would have been built up as in our timeline. Chamberlain recognised its importance. The Royal Navy similarly.
The British Expeditionary Force in 1939 would have been smaller and less well equipped. Shockingly to our eyes instead of Dunkirk there would have been a truce and orderly withdrawal. Chamberlain and King George did not share Churchill's enthusiasm for France.
Chamberlain admired Mussolini even as he despised Hitler. Some accommodation with Italy might even have been possible to avoid war.
That of course leaves Japan. No amount of British naval power could have resisted the Japanese advance. But without war in Europe and North Africa the RAF would have been better placed to defend Singapore.
By 1941 Britain would have been fighting desperately to protect its Empire in Asia and the Pacific. But it would have been doing so alongside the USA.
It seems likely that Germany would not have been able to defeat Stalin's Soviet Union even without Western aid to Russia. Hitler did not understand economics or logistics and would still have meddled with his Commanders. But without a US and British invasion of Europe the war might have gone on for much longer.
Chamberlain would have had to retire in rhe late 40s and hand over to a successor. Although he might have kept Britain out of a Continental War the clash between Russia and Germany and the United States against Japan would still have seen the USA emerge as the leading world power in 1945.
By 1950 Britain would have had to accept second place behind the USA. Unlike Churchill Chamberlain and Halifax knew India would have to be given Dominion status. Being realists they would have still sent Earl.Mountbatten to Delhi.
Europe would have been a sorry place, ruled by two barbarous and futile regimes. Winston Churchill in his speech at Fulton in 1945 would denounce Chamberlain for letting the Dark Ages return to Europe.
But Britain's cities would have been spared the horrors of the Blitz and her soldiers in Asia the horrors of Japanese camps.
 
It seems likely that Germany would not have been able to defeat Stalin's Soviet Union even without Western aid to Russia. Hitler did not understand economics or logistics and would still have meddled with his Commanders. But without a US and British invasion of Europe the war might have gone on for much longer.
Chamberlain would have had to retire in rhe late 40s and hand over to a successor. Although he might have kept Britain out of a Continental War the clash between Russia and Germany and the United States against Japan would still have seen the USA emerge as the leading world power in 1945.
By 1950 Britain would have had to accept second place behind the USA. Unlike Churchill Chamberlain and Halifax knew India would have to be given Dominion status. Being realists they would have still sent Earl.Mountbatten to Delhi.
Europe would have been a sorry place, ruled by two barbarous and futile regimes. Winston Churchill in his speech at Fulton in 1945 would denounce Chamberlain for letting the Dark Ages return to Europe.
But Britain's cities would have been spared the horrors of the Blitz and her soldiers in Asia the horrors of Japanese camps.

(my bold)
This scenario gives Germany access to world supply of petrol, nickel, copper and rubber - exactly what they were short off. No fuel shortges = LW pilots are well trained now. No African theater, no need to make, man and fuel submarines - again, great for Germany. No British help to Soviets, no American help to the Soviets (from boots, chemicals and fuel to trucks, aircraft and tanks) again advantage Germany, this time a big one. German airforce is not wrecked above UK in 1940. German factories are not bombed, Germany does not have to spend coin and people to defend from bomb attacks - great for the Nazi war machine.

Grim decades lay ahead for the non-Aryan peoples between Atlantic and Urals, with additional millions dying in concentration camps.
 
Churchill's Fulton speech contained those very words
Grim decades lie ahead for the non-Aryan peoples between the Atlantic and the Urals. Millions of innocent lives will die in concentration camps and gulags, the architecture of tyranny.
 
Air Rearmament, 1936-39, was funded by Chamberlain, Chancellor, then PM. Air Minister (-16/5/38) organising the shadow prodn scheme and Heavy Bombers was Ld.Swinton: his Memoirs (60 Years of Power, Hutchinson,1966),Pp.90/120: “revolutionary prog. of expansion (inc) off the drawing board, Shadow factories, radar...could not have (been) achieved (without PM NC's support. I was) not obstructed by (NC)”.

Bolshevism was rife in (Clydeside; as Anglos saw it: Sinn Fein in Eire), France; fascism/militarism in Spain, Poland, Hungary; isolationism in US. What for so long has been derided as Chamberlain/Halifax' defeatist appeasement, was actually the forlorn hope of pointing militarists East, to expire with USSR: "If there is any fighting in Europe to be done I should like to (see) Bolshies and Nazis doing it” PM Baldwin 29/7/36: H.M-Hyde, Br.Air Policy Between Wars, Heinemann,76,P389. This policy could have worked. Much of OP's piece could have been so. I have elsewhere suggested we (UK+France) were in part to blame for its failure, by scattering unresourced Guarantees in E.Europe, that caused fascists to cover their back before heading East.
 
You'd better remove Daladier. Somewhat remarquably, that man doomed France TWICE.
- Munich
- Being a die-hard Maurice Gamelin groupie

I discovered that recently at France Fights On. From 1932 onward, Gamelin and Daladier were like Laurel and Hardy - or toothpaste and toothbrush.

Daladier Parti Radical had strategically emplaced itself into the (decaying) late 3rd Republic political spectrum.
Any PM wanting a moderate right-wing political coalition, needed Daladier.
Any PM wanting a moderate left-wing political coalition, needed Daladier.

Daladier was part of every single freakkin' French government all the way from 1931 to 1940.

And as long as Daladier was part of any government, after 1935 when he replaced Weygand, retired - Gamelin could not be removed.

PM Paul Reynaud, who was painfully aware France was heading straight into the abyss with Gamelin, was strongly decided from March 21, 1940 to remove the two plagues.
Well, he couldn't.
He had to hire Daladier as Foreign Minister.
And Gamelin did not moved by a fraction of an inch.

The Gamelin - Daladier alliance mostly explains the 1940 military collapse - all by itself.

Have one of the two run over by a bus or flattened by a meteorit, and France chances for a stalemate or a victory in May 1940 rise instantly and exponentially.
 
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Brits are accustomed to thinking of Neville Chamberlain as a silly old buffer waving a piece of paper But he was for much of his career an ambitious and rather arrogant Tory politician. He died at 71 in 1940 after being ill for some time.
Had Chamberlain been ten years younger and in better health he rather than Winston Churchill might still have been Prime Minister in 1940. It is often forgotten that Churchill inspired strong emotions as Johnson does today though for different reasons.
Chamberlain was no pacifist but he believed war could only be won by sound money and careful husbanding of resources. Like.many Englishmen of his generation he saw land warfare on the Continent as a hideous waste and believed a combination of blockade by the Royal Navy and defence of Britain by airpower would enable her to prevail against Germany.and Italy. Though he had little time for Roosevelt he knew that as in World War 1 the USA would have to be brought into the war.
I suspect that after the Fall of France in 1940 he and his Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, would have sought a temporary peace agreement with Hitler much as Britain had done with Napoleon and Louis XIV.
Chamberlain loathed and distrusted Stalin so Britain would not have assisted either Russia or Germany in their inevitable clash.
The RAF would have been built up as in our timeline. Chamberlain recognised its importance. The Royal Navy similarly.
The British Expeditionary Force in 1939 would have been smaller and less well equipped. Shockingly to our eyes instead of Dunkirk there would have been a truce and orderly withdrawal. Chamberlain and King George did not share Churchill's enthusiasm for France.
Chamberlain admired Mussolini even as he despised Hitler. Some accommodation with Italy might even have been possible to avoid war.
That of course leaves Japan. No amount of British naval power could have resisted the Japanese advance. But without war in Europe and North Africa the RAF would have been better placed to defend Singapore.
By 1941 Britain would have been fighting desperately to protect its Empire in Asia and the Pacific. But it would have been doing so alongside the USA.
It seems likely that Germany would not have been able to defeat Stalin's Soviet Union even without Western aid to Russia. Hitler did not understand economics or logistics and would still have meddled with his Commanders. But without a US and British invasion of Europe the war might have gone on for much longer.
Chamberlain would have had to retire in rhe late 40s and hand over to a successor. Although he might have kept Britain out of a Continental War the clash between Russia and Germany and the United States against Japan would still have seen the USA emerge as the leading world power in 1945.
By 1950 Britain would have had to accept second place behind the USA. Unlike Churchill Chamberlain and Halifax knew India would have to be given Dominion status. Being realists they would have still sent Earl.Mountbatten to Delhi.
Europe would have been a sorry place, ruled by two barbarous and futile regimes. Winston Churchill in his speech at Fulton in 1945 would denounce Chamberlain for letting the Dark Ages return to Europe.
But Britain's cities would have been spared the horrors of the Blitz and her soldiers in Asia the horrors of Japanese camps.
Why war with Japan? If Chamberlain does the "peace out" after the fall of France it should also cover Japan shouldn't it?
 
Hitler was willing to ignore Britain and focus on his struggle with the Soviet Union. Imperial Japan saw colonial possessions in Asia as standing in the way of its economic needs and a as a convenient by product could appeal to nationalists to resist them. The clash between Japan and the US in Asia and the Pacific was unaboidable and Britain would be caught up in it.
 
Hitler was willing to ignore Britain and focus on his struggle with the Soviet Union. Imperial Japan saw colonial possessions in Asia as standing in the way of its economic needs and a as a convenient by product could appeal to nationalists to resist them. The clash between Japan and the US in Asia and the Pacific was unaboidable and Britain would be caught up in it.
but they would no longer be an impediment if Britain makes peace. There will be German friendly governments in the Netherlands and France who will sell oil and rubber to the Japanese.

This gets around the US embargo and lessens the need for the Japanese to go at the US. This is a possible/probable horror show time line.
 
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I think Japan is a bit of an open question in this scenario. Hoping to win a war against both the USA and a UK that could afford to send a much larger force to defend the far reaches of their empire is a far reach even for their ambitions. Even if they conquered all of the territory they aimed for would they really think they could withstand both the American counterattack from the west and a British one from the east?
 
I'm not sure whether being younger or less arrogant would have saved Chamberlain. Norway was a fisaco, the German Western Blitzkrieg took him by surprise and it was clear there was no real war direction at all - Churchill let loose with crazy schemes which widened the war into Scandinavia, loony schemes to bomb Baku when Britain wasn't even at war with the USSR. No Plan B if anything went wrong.
It was a long list of fail in a short period and its no surprise he had to go. AU Chamberlain needs to get his mind in gear a lot sooner.

In fact its amazing that Churchill survived the string of even larger defeats from May 41 to July 42. Only his character, bluster and the feelgood factor of having been connected with the people during the darker days of 1940 saved his bacon. A PM of lesser stature would have been out on his ear by 1942.

Could Chamberlain have done what Churchill and the King and Queen did and tour the East End and get down with the people and inspire them? An aloof toff is no good - the only successful leaders of the War carried the public with them.

The other snag with the longer-term scenario is that Britain is overdue an election by 1940. A peace with Germany would have triggered an election. Would a grateful populous re-elect Chamberlain in thanks or would they turf him out for a Labour government or does an unelected National Government limp on as some form of quasi dictatorship until 'the emergency' situation of a Nazi/Soviet and potentially Japan/US wars is resolved (if ever). The implications are quite dark to be honest.

I don't see Japan attacking the UK, a Nazi-dominated Dutch government would be pressured to supply Japan with oil and raw materials thus securing the Southern Flank along with the Nazi-dominated French giving military access to Indochina. The UK would be blackmailed to go along with that and watch China encircled and strangled. So if Japan lashes at anyone in 1941 its either the USA to secure complete dominance of the western Pacific or north to Siberia and secure Manchuria forever.
The UK is blackmailed and chipped away at by Germany, Italy and Japan and weakened bit by bit.

For me this AU younger vigorous Chamberlain has to fight it out like Churchill did and not mess it up. And that also means not letting Churchill derail things with his hairbrained schemes...
 
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