riggerrob

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What if the United States Army Air Corps was limited to Ford Tri-Motor transports until the onset of World War 2?

For the purposes of debate, Bill Stout is allowed to update the basic Ford airframe to 23,000 pound gross weight and up to 725 horsepower per engine, but is still limited to the same corrugated skins, fixed gear and performance of the Junkers Ju.52 Tri-Motor.

Note: I have made a single parachute jump from the later Stout Bushmaster 2000 Tri-Motor. I enjoyed the stand-up cabin, but its performance was "leisurely" compared with a Beechcraft 18.
 
In such scenario, other USAAC aircraft also should be "outdated" as well - no stressed skin, no retractable undercarriage, no aerodynamic improvements.
Perhaps, this "alternative history", where America has been equipped with obsolete aircraft, and all other countries (allies and enemies) used aircraft types, that we knew well is quite unusual. Boeing P-12 vs Bf 109, Keystone biplane bombers vs He 111, Tri Motor vs Ju 52 (that has been more adapted to cargo carrying and paratroop jumping).
And last, but not least: American aviation industry hasn't been suited for mass and rapid production.
Even Pearl Harbor in "that" world (when Japan stronger then USA) could appeared in 1935!
 
You're looking at the US routed in WWII like some banana republic. It would be a slow motion Operation Desert Storm.
 
Why would this be the case?
Would airliner-focused technological development (airframes and engines) ensured that this would be highly unlikely?
Is this by some form of direct choice (even more limited budgets, genuine lack of even the prospect of something better, etc)?
And how different would the US have to be from almost every perspective?
Also worth considering that the US pre-WW2 bomber force as it was proved of relatively little real value as it entered the war with the exception of the B-17s and other types the proved to be the basis for future developments. So a few fewer b-18s isn’t going to change a lot as long as what followed was largely the same.
 
Wouldn't the USAAC just impress civilian DC-2s and DC-3s and draft up an order for Mr Douglas to start churning out modern aircraft?

In the real would the USAAC had a rather small and mixed transport fleet anyway, certainly all the really important developments and growth came from the impetus of the war.
 
I think this.is another case where the "alt hist" is simply a way to get us to look at less rapid developments in US and other transport aircraft.
In that spirit if the Douglas and Lockheed designs had been more like the Ford and less advanced
 
POD More crashes - like Knut Romnee's - force the Federal Aviation Administration to be more conservative about what types of airliners they are willing to certify: minimum 1 engine per 6 passengers, no plywood, fixed gear, tail-wheels needed, tires sized for soft grass runways, over-built aluminum airframes, fixed pitch propellers, no flight into known icing, tc.
 
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What if the United States Army Air Corps was limited to Ford Tri-Motor transports until the onset of World War 2?

For the purposes of debate, Bill Stout is allowed to update the basic Ford airframe to 23,000 pound gross weight and up to 725 horsepower per engine, but is still limited to the same corrugated skins, fixed gear and performance of the Junkers Ju.52 Tri-Motor.

Note: I have made a single parachute jump from the later Stout Bushmaster 2000 Tri-Motor. I enjoyed the stand-up cabin, but its performance was "leisurely" compared with a Beechcraft 18.

So... The Wright brothers manage to actually get a 10 year moratorium no American aircraft development due to their patent on aircraft and Henry Ford seeing how this works does a push to get the Tri-motor patented and a similar arrangement means any other "passenger" aircraft maker now has to pay a royalty to Ford which pretty much stymies most aircraft development in the US. You'd likely need to butterfly away NACA's establishment as well so essentially the US never feels it's 'behind' the curve on aircraft development in WWI or after.

Or...

You could just assume the the AAC was simply limited to purchasing the Tri-motor for transport needs and for some reason the order was never repealed or reversed until it became unavoidable that the US would likely get involved in another major war.

Randy
 
What if Ford/Stout developed smooth-skinned airframe with corrugations on the inside (ala. Shorts Skyvan). Skyvan internal skins have corrugations oriented vertically. This allows thin, smooth skins with minimal wrinkles. Outer skins are rivetted or shot-welded to inner corrugated skins. This might even allow Budd to develop lighter, stainless steel, Conestoga cargo planes with ramps under the tail.
A disadvantage is that this form of construction is limited to simple, single curvatures (cylinders and cones).
 
h to get the Tri-motor patented and a similar arrangement means any other "passenger" aircraft maker now has to pay a royalty to Ford which pretty much stymies most aircraft development in the US. You'd likely need to butterfly away NACA's establishment as well so ess
Except they couldn't have, because they were already in violation of Junkers' patents, which is why so few Fords ever went to Europe or Asia - Junkers threatened to sue any operator out of existence for using them without paying royalties, and they had a strong enough case Ford agreed to leave Europe and Asia alone.
Even the general shape was stolen, from Fokker, who retained a significant US presence - so any attempt by Ford to patent any aspect of it would have been impossible because there was nothing remotely novel about it. The airfoil section used was the Goettingen 386 section, also taken from the Fokker.

Ford fired Stout over the disastrous 3-AT trimotor (with its Farman-esque nose and engines on the wings disturbing the airflow), so he had minimal contribution to make for any of the production trimotors which had little in common with the 3-AT, and had he not been fired, if his previous designs are anything to go by, the whole endeavour would have been forgotten.

A more likely scenario would be the USAAC/US Navy/USMC/US Army NOT reducing spending after 1918, leaving the country nearly bankrupt, and only able to afford old hand-me downs by 1941. Before you laugh, this was a very real, and very serious problem for several European countries, including Italy and France and was a big reason for the French still operating those boxy late 1920s monoplanes in 1939. That said, only 199 Ford trimotors were built and a bunch were exported to Latin America and the ones that weren't were all well used by 1941, so not much of a basis for an expanded air service. The war had minimal impact of airliner development as all of the big players in 1945 began development before the war. The Boeing 307 Stratoliner started the trend, followed by the Douglas DC-4 (having already ditched the DC-4E), and Lockheed had abandoned its Excalibur in favour of the much larger Constellation. Even the Boeing 367/377 Stratocruiser had roots going back to before the war, and could be seen as a development of the 307, via the B-29. None of these saw a radical change because of the war, and all were the result of airline demands on the manufacturers. Meanwhile the USAAC had no clue what it needed or wanted, and so came out with one absurdly outdated specification after another. Visits by the Soviets in the DB-3 'Moskva' and the Japanese in their G3M 'Nippon' within weeks of each other in 1939 deeply embarrassed them, because here were two powers that Americans despise as third rate, both with bombers blatantly more capable than their new B-18 (all three first flew the same year) - and both had completed flights that the B-18 could never have made. Both had a 7,000 foot advantage in ceiling, and advantages in maximum speed and range. It wouldn't have made any difference had they been operating Fords. The one area that would have been impacted was that US production capabilities would not have been up to being the arsenal of democracy, as they wouldn't have had to funds to expand as quickly as they did.
 
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This sounds odd, but the US was in no hurry to develop land based bombers, as it had no one to bomb. Despite Billy Mitchell demonstrating that bombers could sink unarmed and immobile Dreadnought type battleships, the US Army did not diligently pursue any anti-ship capability. They understood strategic bombing, but any potential targets were too far away. Really, until the B-29, there was nothing the US could use from the US to Europe or Japan. The B-15 and B-19 were great acheivements but the goal was mainly to judge the state of the art and to figure out what was needed to build a truly strategic bomber.
 
This sounds odd, but the US was in no hurry to develop land based bombers, as it had no one to bomb. Despite Billy Mitchell demonstrating that bombers could sink unarmed and immobile Dreadnought type battleships, the US Army did not diligently pursue any anti-ship capability. They understood strategic bombing, but any potential targets were too far away. Really, until the B-29, there was nothing the US could use from the US to Europe or Japan. The B-15 and B-19 were great acheivements but the goal was mainly to judge the state of the art and to figure out what was needed to build a truly strategic bomber.
The USAAC pursued the development of heavy land-based bombers throughout the period, and bought the Martin MB-1 & 2, various Keystones, the Curtiss B-2 Condor and more, and they had specific targets in mind, as they were fighting multiple wars to control former Spanish colonies for US corporations, none of which required great range or anti-ship capabilities as they supported army activities from nearby bases. Europe wasn't on the radar, but the distances were not unlike those of the transcontinental flights the airlines were achieving. Anti-ship capabilities were provided by a whole series of USN bombers from the end of WW1 and uninterrupted throughout the interwar period, including the USMC's well known Helldiver dive bombers and and torpedo bombers such as the Douglas T2D/P2D (a twin engine design), Great Lakes TG-1 and BG-1, Martin SC, TM, T3M etc.

The US never faced aerial opposition though, and they sneered at non-US developments, which resulted in their specifications becoming mired in fads disconnected to real world opposition, hence the shock of coming face to face with the Japanese, whose aircraft were almost all far better than anything the US had in service - which they attempted to write off with racist propaganda, about the Japanese aircraft somehow being both copies, and being more capable. At the same time, the Navy's torpedoes had never been tested in real world conditions either, and failed miserably - but they did have them,

The US military consistently lagged behind their own commercial developments, with airliners almost always beating their best fighters. Stressed skin, closed cockpits, cantilever monoplanes, retractable undercarriage and other drag reduction measures all became common in airline service long before being accepted by a VERY conservative military. The B-17 owes more to the 247 airliner as a four engine development, than it does to any prior bomber and the B-18 was a warmed over DC-2. Hence why almost all of the medium and heavy bombers that weren't completely obsolete in 1941 came from companies at the forefront of commercial aviation - Douglas (B-18), Boeing (B-17), and Lockheed (Hudson) being prime examples. This trend would continue until late in the war, when massively ramped up development spending meant the USAAF would finally beat the airlines, at fielding jet aircraft, but that leap forward came too late for the war effort.

The B-15 and B-19 were both dead end monstrosities that exemplified the US tendency to gigantism, and neither clarified USAAF needs in the slightest, beyond being obviously useless. Instead, the US had to learn from the British that the most important criteria for a heavy bomber is its efficiency in delivering the most bombs, in the shortest period of time, for the lowest cost - in fuel, aircraft and crews. Slow gargantuan airplanes just don't measure up, and the Sterling had the same problem - far too much airframe for the job. The Lancaster, and Halifax were the ones providing the real lessons, not the B-15 and 19, hence the startling similarity of the Liberator to both, as all of them had been designed from the beginning for efficiency. At the same time, aerodynamics was making massive leaps forward, so much higher aspect ratio wings, with laminar flow airfoils and smaller airframes with much better ratios between load and empty weight became the norm. The final lesson from the British was that loading up a bomber with lots of guns (which were far less effective than when installed in single-seat fighters) also reduced efficiency, but the US wouldn't make use of those lessons until well after WW2, beginning with stripping most of the guns out of the B-36s.
 
rrob: is the thrust of your Q not simply a structures issue but: what if by 3/9/39 (when Brits date WW2...not China, 1931) US had no land-bomber after Martin B-12? So must react to Pearl and to Germany's Declaration 12/41, with tactical, close-up, but no deep strike type?
So, might you have been thinking of licensed UK Heavies? (UK did float the notion, 1938/40, of US Stirling, Wellington; 1941 Lancaster).

Nieuport is quite right*, that US Aero-structure-tech was stimulated by airlines, who alone had $: so Boeing 237 (B-17), DC-2/3 (B-18/23). Feeble USAAC buy was a few B-17A/B** so tightly priced as to bring Boeing to the brink of bankruptcy, saved only by so many UK/France DB-7 (Boston) that Douglas subbed to its competitor.

But I don't think Big Structure is the fun what-if. Try Hyper Power (>2,000hp). Try pressurisation. Together in US they created B-29, which would have starved Germany in 1944 if Gen Arnold had not used it, not as Very Heavy, but as Very Long Range to mine and burn Japan. UK tried and failed on both - Big Power was late and fraught; pressurisation ditto but moreso. IF...US had also failed on both, so transport/ bombers plateaued at C-47/B-17, no plans for C-74 (et al)/B-29 (B-32 et al) within 1946...then...well, boggle. Stalemate.

(* may I gently dissent from UK as mentor on bombers. US in c.1937 had nothing to learn from UK on bomber efficiency - last biplane HP Heyford delivery was 7/36! Air Ministry judged AWA Whitley to be obsolete in 8/38 and continued to take delivery to 6/43. Trading range/payload for defence (guns) remained contentious through UK's VHB Windsor (rear-aimed barbettes in engine nacelles) and was dropped for 1947's Mediums only as RAE knew we could not build speed+height+payload+range+defence{+backseaters' egress}).

(**B-24 was first funded by France, LB-30 5/38, taken over by USAAC 3/39 (R&D; prodn batch of 24 ordered 8/39): if it had not been onway they might have put B-17s in Consolidated/San Diego in 4/41, as they did in Douglas/L.Beach, Vega/Burbank).
 
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What if the USAAC/USAAF realising the massive expense of the big four-engine bomber (including both purchase and operating costs) devised something similar to the concept the likes of the Douglas XB-42 Mixmaster earlier?

Regards
Pioneer
 
What if the USAAC/USAAF realising the massive expense of the big four-engine bomber (including both purchase and operating costs) devised something similar to the concept the likes of the Douglas XB-42 Mixmaster earlier?

Regards
Pioneer
USAAC might experiment with something like Douglas XB-42 Mixmaster, but I doubt if they would be able to solve problems with light-weight drive shafts and torsional vibration. Certainly not with piston engines generating thousands of lead-lag cycles per minute. Remember that heavy duty helicopters only became practical after the introduction of much smoother jet engines during the 1950s.

Perhaps Detroit needed to invent the fluid-couplings during the 1930s. Fluid couplings are needed as "clutches" for automatic transmissions.
 
How many US designs of that period failed due to lonnnng drive-shafts ? There were several, plus 'buried' engines' cooling issues...

Also, was there a 'lightbulb' solution for stabilising such shafts that could have been spotted before obsolete due to jet era ??

:-( Helos: Sorry, I'd always read it was simply the growth in P/W of jet engines vs piston engines, until their 'curves' crossed... )
 
How many US designs of that period failed due to lonnnng drive-shafts ? There were several, plus 'buried' engines' cooling issues...

Also, was there a 'lightbulb' solution for stabilising such shafts that could have been spotted before obsolete due to jet era ??

:-( Helos: Sorry, I'd always read it was simply the growth in P/W of jet engines vs piston engines, until their 'curves' crossed... )
Yes.
In the long run, jets also became more reliable, their fuel consumption approached the same low levels as piston engines and they required far less maintenance. Less maintenance was possible because of less vibration and far fewer moving parts. Now airlines routinely operate jet engines on-condition thousands of hours beyond their scheduled time-between-overhauls. Operating on-condition include regular spectrographic oil analysis, vibration analysis, bore-scoping, logging temperatures and pressures and fluid consumption.
 
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