The lack of firmness in the face of aggression is an incentive for any enemy, the worst thing that can happen to a boxer is that his opponents know that he allows himself to be beaten by his wife.
Undersea cable breaches
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The current war in Ukraine is what drove Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and to drive most European nations to invest heavily in defence. The result, when the meatgrinder finally stops, will be a pile of European weapons much of which will be in close proximity to a Russia that will be much weakened by war. I think that poses a serious long term problem to any warlike Russian regime. In comparison, a European military mission to the Red Sea only dilutes the effort to build a serious defence against Russia.
Europe is not at war with Russia, but if it allows itself to be humiliated by any terrorist group, or any dictator, anywhere in the world, revealing its disunity, the chances of us being attacked will increase.
The image that Europe presents to the rest of the world is that of a millionaire without security service or alarms in his home.
When things start to get difficult, neither the Israelis nor the NATO articles are going to help us, each country will try to obtain a separate peace behind the backs of the others, starting with the Mediterraneans and Poland will once again be left alone in front of the tanks.
Without great demonstrations of unity and firmness we are lost.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War
In its beginnings, the young American republic resisted the idea of building a naval fighting force, but the continuous attacks of pirates on the defenseless American freighters made it necessary to build the USS Constitution.
Have we forgotten this lesson?
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My money is on warmongering hysteria and front page reporting every cable breach, while in the past it did not even get a mention let alone become a front page news , only relevant stat would be how many snagged per year and if there is some massive uptick
Forest Green
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Oh no, they are connected, but that doesn't change the fact that Russia cut the cables. Hope that clears it up.
Russia is supplying Houthis with satellite data to attack ships in the Red Sea: report
Russia has been aiding the Houthis’ assault on Western shipping lanes in the Red Sea by providing them targeting data.
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That is true, the difference consists in the historical moment in which the accidents occur. Hysteria is a very effective weapon of war.
During the Spanish Civil War, the French press became hysterical with the news of the bombing of Guernica by the Luftwaffe and with Soviet intelligence reports that exaggerated the difficulty of shooting down the new generation of German bombers.
The Polikarpov I-16 fighters had the necessary performance to shoot down a Dornier 17 and even a He 111 of the Condor Legion, they failed because they lacked the Auer oxygen masks already used by the German crews.
The Republicans could have easily imported this equipment, they even had a private airline Air Pyrenees that made daily flights to France... but instead of importing electrically heated suits and oxygen masks they brought... newspapers.
When the German assault on the West began, French society was already intimidated by hysteria... and panic set in.
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I have made the points I wanted to make. I don't think this site should be turned into a war-reporting/commenting site anyway, to which I fear I have contributed myself, so I am leaving this discussion.
It would be terrible if we all had the same opinions, we have both contributed our concerns and points of view on a topic that interests many people at this time. I have no problem accepting your ideas if future events support them. As has always been done in scientific environments.
That is some 'Russia did it'' shit for real gullible dupes. ''Russian satellite data for targeting ships'', think for a second how that process would work out in practice with relatively limited Russian satellite coverage of Red Sea and Gulf of aden ,that would pick up a ship position once a day or more likely several days apart , then start the kill chain from Moscow to Yemen while ship is steaming ahead , targeting data would literally be useless in minutes.. Seriously that is some fantasy fiction .Oh no, they are connected, but that doesn't change the fact that Russia cut the cables. Hope that clears it up.
Russia is supplying Houthis with satellite data to attack ships in the Red Sea: report
Russia has been aiding the Houthis’ assault on Western shipping lanes in the Red Sea by providing them targeting data.www.foxnews.com
So far whole Jemen shitshow has been utter embarasment , shown most of NATO navies are paper tigers , thrust into what is basicaly equivalent of practice shooting , they have shot at eachother suffered systems and weapons failures to degre of being combat innefective and most had to turn tail and exit. Of course there is appetite to asign blame
MSM these days seems to be writing stories for uber gullible dupes , typical for these stories are unnamed officials as sources aka made up shit.altough these days you can always swing a mic to some official to make some shit up.
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The Russians have been exploring the bottom of the Baltic Sea, the bottom of the North Sea and the bottom of the Arctic Ocean for more than fifty years, their knowledge of these places is perfect and constantly updated. I find it hard to believe that they act so clumsily on intelligence issues. The press in my country says that the Finns have seized an oil tanker that they define as belonging to the Russian ghost fleet and that they have found electronic espionage material of Turkish and Russian origin, recently installed, which exceeds the capacity of the ship's generators. How can the Russians be so clumsy as to drag an anchor for many miles, cut a communications cable and allow themselves to be captured?
If the published information is authentic, it is a Trojan horse (which according to the most recent historical speculations could also have been a ship with a horse's head).
No one in Europe or Russia wants a war, but neither did the American people want a war in 1941 and it took a little pushing.
But I'm not going to fall for conspiracy theories, this whole thing sucks.
Poetry By Heart
www.poetrybyheart.org.uk
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Forest Green
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Only matters that they get the data at the time they need it. How often were Houthi attacks on shipping? Probably a similar rate. Not that the rate you state is necessarily correct anyway.
It is clear to me that the unity of Europe has been tested and has failed on many occasions.
A reasonable strategy to exploit this weakness could be to create diplomatic tensions in an area where NATO's weakest countries are located: A misidentification, a misstep, a chance accident involving those countries would test NATO's solidarity, and if that would raise reasonable doubts about the possibility of immediate assistance, that would be an extraordinary psychological victory for the aggressor.
A reasonable strategy to exploit this weakness could be to create diplomatic tensions in an area where NATO's weakest countries are located: A misidentification, a misstep, a chance accident involving those countries would test NATO's solidarity, and if that would raise reasonable doubts about the possibility of immediate assistance, that would be an extraordinary psychological victory for the aggressor.
From a strictly military point of view, the Russian attitude makes sense and can be geostrategically justified as a response to Western aid to Ukraine.Oh no, they are connected, but that doesn't change the fact that Russia cut the cables. Hope that clears it up.
Russia is supplying Houthis with satellite data to attack ships in the Red Sea: report
Russia has been aiding the Houthis’ assault on Western shipping lanes in the Red Sea by providing them targeting data.
The only difference is ethical, Russia supports terrorism and the West the struggle for the freedom of a people who do not want to be digested.
But these small differences, considering the global situation, do not carry much weight, compared to what can happen in Europe if our leaders do not act intelligently.
Forest Green
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Nope.
Q-nimbus
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Russia does it because they know they’ll get away with it, as they are not dependent on undersea cables as they have landlines.The Russians have been exploring the bottom of the Baltic Sea, the bottom of the North Sea and the bottom of the Arctic Ocean for more than fifty years, their knowledge of these places is perfect and constantly updated. I find it hard to believe that they act so clumsily on intelligence issues. The press in my country says that the Finns have seized an oil tanker that they define as belonging to the Russian ghost fleet and that they have found electronic espionage material of Turkish and Russian origin, recently installed, which exceeds the capacity of the ship's generators. How can the Russians be so clumsy as to drag an anchor for many miles, cut a communications cable and allow themselves to be captured?
If the published information is authentic, it is a Trojan horse (which according to the most recent historical speculations could also have been a ship with a horse's head).
No one in Europe or Russia wants a war, but neither did the American people want a war in 1941 and it took a little pushing.
But I'm not going to fall for conspiracy theories, this whole thing sucks.
Poetry By Heart
If the EU or an EU country would only say that from now on they will regard any form of sabotage an act of war that would probably carry enough weight for the Russians to stop doing it.
But so far no politician has dared to…
Forest Green
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The proportional response is to continue seizing the associated ships. When they run out of ships to drag anchor the cable-cutting will stop.
Lets just say while technically possible ,not very likely ,civilian ships run trackers, much more likely is just one of many 'russia did it' fabrications that MSM has been spewing since Hillary lost elections in 2016.
Red sea operations have so far been an utter humiliation for most of NATO Europe fleets that have turned out to absolute paper tigers with non functioning ships and since shooting down own jets for USN as well. Imagine the idiot at fire controls , some cave dwellers , pop a drone or two and a missile at some civilian shipping and the sharpest tool at the controlls suddenly sees Huthi airforce F18s coming in for an attack run as he shoots at two , downing one and narrowly missing another. Then you get some other DEI hire explain that Red sea ops is second only to battle of Midway. Give me a break.
Report: USS Gettysburg Nearly Shot Down a Second Friendly Fighter Jet
Early Sunday morning, a U.S. Navy cruiser accidentally shot down a U.S. Navy fighter jet over the Red Sea, forcing the two pilots to eject. The Navy...
maritime-executive.com
German Navy Tried to Shoot Down an American Drone Over the Red Sea
Last week, a German Navy warship accidentally opened fire on an American drone over the Red Sea when the crew mistook it for a hostile target. The Ge...
maritime-executive.com
No need to be guilible dupes , ships trackers are far more accurate and up to date than imaginary Moscow targeting data and iranian ships operating in red sea are likely of much more use as well to Huthis that are an Iranian ally. Moscow does not run war on Israel on contrary they have quite a working relationship.
''Russia-linked, sanctions-evading dark fleet'' = basicaly any ship not insured by Western insurance , strongly deceptive wording makes it sound like Russia owns and runs these ships or fleet. In reality its more like bunch of traders looking for a quick buck with discounted Russian oil products ,and shippers running rust buckets that are willing to ship chargo likely for a price above market cost. Sanctions also not something legal outside countries issuing them ,so ''sanction evading'' is kinda BS term used by MSM for absolutely legitimate business , while seizing ships is like it or not piracy there is no legal basis for it , warrant issued in DC is as invalid as one issued in Teheran .
Very broad definition what makes it dark fleet.
* Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020.
Tanker seized by Finland is UAE owned rustbucket and crew are Georgian and Indian nationals.So are Georgians or Indians attacking undersea cables?
Yet some here advocate for outright shooting war without knowing what regular broken cable incidents are in any year , trusting solly inflammatory MSM reports
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Forest Green
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How many friendly fire incidents from Russia in the Ukraine War by comparison? One vs many. Some NATO forces by comparison were able to shoot down several hundred Iranian drones in one night with no friendly fire incidents.Lets just say while technically possible ,not very likely ,civilian ships run trackers, much more likely is just one of many 'russia did it' fabrications that MSM has been spewing since Hillary lost elections in 2016.
Red sea operations have so far been an utter humiliation for most of NATO Europe fleets that have turned out to absolute paper tigers with non functioning ships and since shooting down own jets for USN as well. Imagine the idiot at fire controls , some cave dwellers , pop a drone or two and a missile at some civilian shipping and the sharpest tool at the controlls suddenly sees Huthi airforce F18s coming in for an attack run as he shoots at two , downing one and narrowly missing another. Then you get some other DEI hire explain that Red sea ops is second only to battle of Midway. Give me a break.
Report: USS Gettysburg Nearly Shot Down a Second Friendly Fighter Jet
Early Sunday morning, a U.S. Navy cruiser accidentally shot down a U.S. Navy fighter jet over the Red Sea, forcing the two pilots to eject. The Navy...German Navy Tried to Shoot Down an American Drone Over the Red Sea
Last week, a German Navy warship accidentally opened fire on an American drone over the Red Sea when the crew mistook it for a hostile target. The Ge...
No need to be guilible dupes , ships trackers are far more accurate and up to date than imaginary Moscow targeting data and iranian ships operating in red sea are likely of much more use as well to Huthis that are an Iranian ally. Moscow does not run war on Israel on contrary they have quite a working relationship.
View attachment 754504
''Russia-linked, sanctions-evading dark fleet'' = basicaly any ship not insured by Western insurance , strongly deceptive wording makes it sound like Russia owns and runs these ships or fleet. In reality its more like bunch of traders looking for a quick buck with discounted Russian oil products ,and shippers running rust buckets that are willing to ship chargo likely for a price above market cost. Sanctions also not something legal outside countries issuing them ,so ''sanction evading'' is kinda BS term used by MSM for absolutely legitimate business , while seizing ships is like it or not piracy there is no legal basis for it , warrant issued in DC is as invalid as one issued in Teheran .
Very broad definition what makes it dark fleet.
* Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020.
Tanker seized by Finland is UAE owned rustbucket and crew are Georgian and Indian nationals.So are Georgians or Indians attacking undersea cables?
Yet some here advocate for outright shooting war without knowing what regular broken cable incidents are in any year , trusting solly inflammatory MSM reports
Transponders may have helped targeting initially but they were switched off to avoid such. It was then that Russian targeting data likely came in.
Vessels 'go dark' to avoid Houthi attacks, but may still be vulnerable - The Loadstar
Vessels are switching off AIS transponders, to conceal movements from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea - but it could hit container monitoring.
theloadstar.com
Houthis escalate Red Sea attacks on commercial shipping with strikes against three vessels
<p>The Houthis have escalated their Red Sea threat with four attacks on three commercial ships in a span of just seven hours. A spokesperson for the Houthis mentioned attacks on only two vessels, which it said were due to their links to Israel, but only one of the three appears to have any such...
www.lloydslist.com
Russia is the only country that benefited from Hamas attacking Israel - split US aid between two countries and try turn global opinion against the West and try start a regional war. Iran is also a Russian ally you forget. In the end though it backfired because Assad got booted instead.
Explain the Russian spy equipment on the boat.
In this whole affair there is something that makes no sense at all: The Russian economy breathes through pipelines, gas pipelines and fleets of ghost tankers that are terribly vulnerable to all kinds of sabotage and terrorist attacks... How is it possible that it behaves like a sovereign state with responsibilities and at the same time carries out acts of sabotage typical of amateurs? It's not believable... how many Russias are there?
The Turkish intelligence material found on the Russian ship could be related to the fact that the Turkish gas pipeline is now more necessary as gas supplies through Ukraine are cut off.How many friendly fire incidents from Russia in the Ukraine War by comparison? One vs many. Some NATO forces by comparison were able to shoot down several hundred Iranian drones in one night with no friendly fire incidents.
Transponders may have helped targeting initially but they were switched off to avoid such. It was then that Russian targeting data likely came in.
Vessels 'go dark' to avoid Houthi attacks, but may still be vulnerable - The Loadstar
Vessels are switching off AIS transponders, to conceal movements from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea - but it could hit container monitoring.Houthis escalate Red Sea attacks on commercial shipping with strikes against three vessels
<p>The Houthis have escalated their Red Sea threat with four attacks on three commercial ships in a span of just seven hours. A spokesperson for the Houthis mentioned attacks on only two vessels, which it said were due to their links to Israel, but only one of the three appears to have any such...
Russia is the only country that benefited from Hamas attacking Israel - split US aid between two countries and try turn global opinion against the West and try start a regional war. Iran is also a Russian ally you forget. In the end though it backfired because Assad got booted instead.
Explain the Russian spy equipment on the boat.
Forest Green
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The keyboards were in Russian and Turkish and were being operated by Russian, Turkish and Indian officers according to Lloyd's List. Don't know why a gas pipeline to Turkey would require cutting a cable in the Baltic Sea though.
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Threats to Taiwan, problems in South Korea, collapse in Syria, increase of Russian troops in Libya, terrorism in Germany and the USA, confusion in the French government, threat to European communications, mass immigration in the Canary Islands.
In my opinion, some of these problems seem prefabricated with the intention of modifying the agenda of the new US administration: a war abroad, unpopular repressive measures at home... usual procedure.
I don't think it will work; the problems have already become so serious that they require all the attention and resources of the government. If someone wants to influence American politics, they will have to do something more spectacular, I hope not.
Forest Green
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Connecting a lot of unconnected there but there's a weapon solution for even the very worst problems.
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And another much cheaper solution that consists of turning off the tap of money, we have been feeding our enemies for more than fifty years at the expense of our taxes.
Scott Kenny
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So, you're going for the "incompetence" theory? Admittedly, the first rule of Intelligence is to never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence
Nautical charts are well marked with warning about "undersea cables here, DO NOT DROP ANCHOR!!!"
Someone who cannot read the warnings on their charts has no business being onboard a ship, let alone operating one, and needs to lose their Master's certs.
Someone who knowingly drops anchor in an undersea cable zone without declaring an emergency is either too stupid to be allowed to continue operating a ship or is deliberately malicious and needs to lose their Masters certs in either case. Also, if they're deliberately malicious, they need to go on trial.
Bet you that they do NOT have the certs and insurance!
Right, but are you aware of typical Russian maintenance practices?
The Nordstream gas pipelines? Okay, they'd been closed for a while. Had they been depressurized and purged, or were they just sitting there with water and methane at high pressure, which is how you make Methane Hydrate? Then when someone opens the flow, the methane hydrate is a solid chunk and goes flying down the pipeline till the pipes make a turn, where it hits a corner hard enough to cause the methane hydrate to chemically break down into methane and water again, causing a massive pressure increase as the solid methane hydrate instantly transforms into a hot gas (aka explodes)?
Have you seen you typical third world crew even on reputable shippers , let alone less reputable outfit ?There is no warnings on charts ,just lines and you can take notice of them or not no one really cares of gives a fuck about them.
Cables are damaged every day its just overhyping that is new. There are 200 internet cable breaks per year and god knows how many other communications and electricity cables .
Historical data shows that the primary causes of cable damage globally are accidental, with approximately 70-80% of incidents attributed to commercial fishing activities and ship anchors. The remaining faults are typically caused by other factors such as abrasion, equipment failure or by natural hazards (seafloor currents, storms, submarine landslides, sediment flows etc.) So like 40+ internet cables break from natural causes .....
Here we are purely for political reasons governments conducting acts of outright piracy( Siezing ships in international waters) for purposes of outright fearmongering
As for certs and insurance ? that is what they are being forced into , they are there to make a quick buck.
Ok now you are seriously pushing an autodetonation conspiracy? NS was run by an consortium of European companies Russians own 51% rest was European corporations, and was definetly pressurised when it was blown up with explosives. And no it was not couple of drunk Ukrainans on a chartered 50foot sailboat with 1700kg of explosives and 70 or so dive bottles stowed in spaces unknown.
Scott Kenny
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You fuck up a cable in the US, you'd better believe that the Coast Guard is going to seize your ship and have very pointed questions about your inability to read a chart.
And probably make you pay for replacing it, if you really fucked up bad enough.
You're misunderstanding.
There's no conspiracy required. Only improper deactivation and inaction. Employee laziness and not giving a fuck.
All it takes is leaving a submerged natural gas pipeline fully pressurized when no gas is moving and you will make methane hydrate. Then the stuff blows up when it slams into a solid object like the wall of the pipeline after a turn. Check the charts and compare the explosion locations to where the turns are in the NS pipelines.
Makes no sense for the Russians to sabotage the pipelines, it makes much more sense to offer to sell at below market rates to try to drive a wedge between different European countries when it's a cold winter again. But historical Russian maintenance trends make a nasty accident depressingly plausible.
Forest Green
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There's also dropping anchor and dragging anchor. A ship captain saying they didn't know they were dragging anchor is like a car driver saying they didn't know they mounted the kerb and hit a pedestrian.
Exactly, and I wonder how bad Mr T experience with those crew, as it is the basic requirement for crew of major firms to be able to read the sea charts
More on post 28
Scott Kenny
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Very much so.
That's at the level of "sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice" where the individual(s) need to be arrested, have their licenses/certificates revoked for cause, and go on trial to determine whether they personally will have to pay for the repairs or if their employer/licensor should pay for repairs.
Seriously watching to much MSM are we?
Coast guard wouldn't know , US costal waters are immense as is ship trafic , Balitc is a narrow sea and countries on both side of it are extremely preped for any incident . when it happened area of suspected breach is what 50x1km and maybe 30 ships passed by at the time , where they filter out anything not Chinese or Russia related , not because that might only culprits but those are nice to blame . If you have a breach in US it hundrets of miles and hundrets of ships . Like said 200 internet cable breaches per year and no fuss over it.
Meanwhile Coast Guard...........
Just stop with the BS , NS being blown up with explosives is known fact .No one is doubting that , also by now no one seriously believes they blew their own pipelines only ones that bypass all intermediaries.
They are forced to sell below market rates ,because of the market cap forced on international shippers, they would much rather sell at market value . China and India are massively exploiting them being forced to sell at below market price to get hard cash rolling in.
Warmongering is off the charts , before this MSM was running week loong chinese hackers story, basicaly on made up shit never retracted stories.
US Army soldier accused of stealing AT&T call logs arrested
Brings the arrest count related to the Snowflake hacks to 3
Stll waiting for some MSM piece blaming iran for US military folks doing acts of terror ,
Scott Kenny
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Haven't watched TV in over a decade, my dude.
Forest Green
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Now China is at it too.
You know, it's not like the perpetrators don't have undersea cables too.
www.submarinecablemap.com
Taiwan says suspects Hong Kong-owned ship of damaging subsea cable
Taipei (AFP) Jan 6, 2025 - Taiwanese authorities are investigating a Hong Kong-owned cargo ship suspected of damaging a subsea telecoms cable northeast of the island, Taiwan's coast guard said Monday.
www.spacewar.com
You know, it's not like the perpetrators don't have undersea cables too.
Submarine Cable Map
TeleGeography's comprehensive and regularly updated interactive map of the world's major submarine cable systems and landing stations.
www.submarinecablemap.com
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NATO Boosting Naval Presence And AI Monitoring In Baltic Sea After Undersea Cables Cut
NATO is responding to the suspected severing of undersea cables linking Finland and Estonia by a Russian-linked oil tanker.
www.twz.com
Forest Green
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Swedish navy recovers anchor of tanker suspected of Baltic Sea cable damage
Stockholm (AFP) Jan 7, 2025 - Sweden said Tuesday that its navy had recovered the anchor of an alleged Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, which is suspected of damaging telecom and power cables on the floor of the Baltic Sea.
www.spacewar.com
Joint European force launches AI-enabled tool to track Russia's shadow fleet, monitor undersea cables - Breaking Defense
Should a suspicious vessel be identified, the system can use real time tracking and instantly send a warning to JEF members and other NATO allies.
UK-led reaction system activated for seabed warfare and Russian shadow fleet monitoring - Naval News
Joint Expeditionary Force partners and NATO will be alerted by the system of any ships deemed a risk to key areas of interest.
www.navalnews.com
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