The Sky Over The Battlefield Of The Future

marauder2048

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Obviously, what the USAF really needs is a LOCAAS-type solution...

With all of the focus on counter-UAS (and counter lows and slows in general) this is going to be a short lived solution
against a high-end opponent.

Consider that a guided, 57mm round with an active seeker is available today in LRIP at $13,000/round.
And that's before we start talking about cheaper PABM, proximity airburst and the more exotic MAD-FIRES/HVP types.
 
Obviously, what the USAF really needs is a LOCAAS-type solution...

With all of the focus on counter-UAS (and counter lows and slows in general) this is going to be a short lived solution
against a high-end opponent.

Consider that a guided, 57mm round with an active seeker is available today in LRIP at $13,000/round.
And that's before we start talking about cheaper PABM, proximity airburst and the more exotic MAD-FIRES/HVP types.

In a SCUD hunt?
 
Obviously, what the USAF really needs is a LOCAAS-type solution...

With all of the focus on counter-UAS (and counter lows and slows in general) this is going to be a short lived solution
against a high-end opponent.

Consider that a guided, 57mm round with an active seeker is available today in LRIP at $13,000/round.
And that's before we start talking about cheaper PABM, proximity airburst and the more exotic MAD-FIRES/HVP types.

In a SCUD hunt?

LOCASS wasn't really a credible threat against TELs. The orthodox USAF view being that TELs either have to be disintegrated or flipped on their backs.
 
Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

Skeptical of ANY bullet-shooting gun being able to deal with a couple hundred of these coming over the trees:


IMO it's a waste of resources to even try. Energy weapons are the only way.
 
You've got (if the data sheet is to be believed) a very hot, 30x113 proximity airburst round that can be fired from a cannon that can fit
on just about any vehicle.

m230-robot-mount.jpg
 
You've got (if the data sheet is to be believed) a very hot, 30x113 proximity airburst round that can be fired from a cannon that can fit
on just about any vehicle.

View attachment 638157

30x113 is actually pretty slow compared to a 30x173. Also there's no way on Earth that thing could slew fast enough to keep up with one drone let alone a hundred. We're not talking about DJI Phantoms being operated by a soccer mom.
 
NG was claiming 1,100 m/s muzzle velocity from the LW30 Proximity (possibly only out of the longer barreled M230LF but that is what goes on the vehicles).
That's actually slightly better the muzzle velocities for most 30x173s albeit the 173* will have better retained velocity by virtue of lower drag/higher BC.

Naturally, with gun systems the argument tends not to be about a single gun threat; the Allies didn't premise the defeat of the V-1
on V-1 vs. 90mm proximity fuzed projectiles and a single gun tube.

*And NG was seemingly describing a 30x173 with proximity fuze at SNA 2020

https://www.military.com/daily-news...t-potent-airburst-rounds-take-out-drones.html

Ignoring medium caliber guided rounds for a moment, what proximity fuzing at this level does is break the traditional tradeoffs in gun systems.

Previously the choice was:

High rates of fire with medium caliber stuff that required direct contact to do damage

or

Sophisticated fuzing which was only available in larger (say min. 57mm) rounds which implied slow rates of fire
 
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Obviously, what the USAF really needs is a LOCAAS-type solution...

With all of the focus on counter-UAS (and counter lows and slows in general) this is going to be a short lived solution
against a high-end opponent.

Consider that a guided, 57mm round with an active seeker is available today in LRIP at $13,000/round.
And that's before we start talking about cheaper PABM, proximity airburst and the more exotic MAD-FIRES/HVP types.

In a SCUD hunt?

LOCASS wasn't really a credible threat against TELs. The orthodox USAF view being that TELs either have to be disintegrated or flipped on their backs.

LOCAAS got canned because the USAF wasn't comfortable with this level of autonomous weapon. LOCAAS's justification was the scud hunt in the gulf war not being satisfactory.

Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

LOCAAS is a little small for this.
 
You've got (if the data sheet is to be believed) a very hot, 30x113 proximity airburst round that can be fired from a cannon that can fit
on just about any vehicle.

View attachment 638157

There is no possible way the LW30 PROX is as fast as that data sheet claims. That's a 30x173mm muzzle velocity.

Edit: It's a dramatic increase in velocity with no appreciable change in projectile mass or propellant volume/weight.
 
You've got (if the data sheet is to be believed) a very hot, 30x113 proximity airburst round that can be fired from a cannon that can fit
on just about any vehicle.

View attachment 638157

There is no possible way the LW30 PROX is as fast as that data sheet claims. That's a 30x173mm muzzle velocity.

Edit: It's a dramatic increase in velocity with no appreciable change in projectile mass or propellant volume/weight.

It's a different propellant to the standard LW30 out of a longer barrel. Seems plausible.
 
LOCAAS's justification was the scud hunt in the gulf war not being satisfactory.

Given that the SCUD hunt was greatly complicated by weather quite how a LADAR-based weapon is credible is left as an
exercise for the reader. It lost out in part because the sensor-fuzed munitions were delivered the same way but were cheaper and
had more seeker modalities.

Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

LOCAAS is a little small for this.

Based on what? It's the size of typical C-RAM targets. Lots of systems capable of detecting and engaging that.

I'm sure you have an explanation as to how LOCASS gets initially delivered to its target; ATACMS is a perfectly fine way but
given the air-dropped version (it was from the super draggy CMD) it's going to have to be from stealth aircraft.
And given the small bay sizes on the loyal wingman birds, it's minimum F-35.
 
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There is no possible way the LW30 PROX is as fast as that data sheet claims. That's a 30x173mm muzzle velocity.

Edit: It's a dramatic increase in velocity with no appreciable change in projectile mass or propellant volume/weight.

It's a different propellant to the standard LW30 out of a longer barrel. Seems plausible.

It's almost a literal doubling of muzzle energy -- roughly 40% more velocity (805m/s to 1105m/s), plus a slight increase in projectile mass (238g to 245g). No propellant change is going to achieve that, even with the slightly longer barrel. Also, IIRC, the 1105 m/s figure matched exactly the Mv in an old 30x173 HEI brochure (which of course I can't find again today). It's a typo. If it wasn't, they'd be applying the same propellant to LW30 HEI, (and everything else, because it would be a miracle gunpowder).
 
There is no possible way the LW30 PROX is as fast as that data sheet claims. That's a 30x173mm muzzle velocity.

Edit: It's a dramatic increase in velocity with no appreciable change in projectile mass or propellant volume/weight.

It's a different propellant to the standard LW30 out of a longer barrel. Seems plausible.

It's almost a literal doubling of muzzle energy -- roughly 40% more velocity (805m/s to 1105m/s), plus a slight increase in projectile mass (238g to 245g). No propellant change is going to achieve that, even with the slightly longer barrel. Also, IIRC, the 1105 m/s figure matched exactly the Mv in an old 30x173 HEI brochure (which of course I can't find again today). It's a typo. If it wasn't, they'd be applying the same propellant to LW30 HEI, (and everything else, because it would be a miracle gunpowder).


I've never seen an HEI 30x173 quoted at 1105 m/s from typical barrel lengths. Even the super slippery and expensive PGU-46 doesn't hit that.
IIRC, NG is not claiming that the LW30 proximity is a ballistic match to the older rounds so they are free to do whatever
they want to address frontal and base drag as well as propellants.

Applying new propellants to already qualified rounds would require them to be requalifed and the FCS on the host systems modified.
Since you have to do that anyway for the LW30 proximity you might as well throw the above improvements at it.
 
There is no possible way the LW30 PROX is as fast as that data sheet claims. That's a 30x173mm muzzle velocity.

Edit: It's a dramatic increase in velocity with no appreciable change in projectile mass or propellant volume/weight.

It's a different propellant to the standard LW30 out of a longer barrel. Seems plausible.

It's almost a literal doubling of muzzle energy -- roughly 40% more velocity (805m/s to 1105m/s), plus a slight increase in projectile mass (238g to 245g). No propellant change is going to achieve that, even with the slightly longer barrel. Also, IIRC, the 1105 m/s figure matched exactly the Mv in an old 30x173 HEI brochure (which of course I can't find again today). It's a typo. If it wasn't, they'd be applying the same propellant to LW30 HEI, (and everything else, because it would be a miracle gunpowder).


I've never seen an HEI 30x173 quoted at 1105 m/s from typical barrel lengths. Even the super slippery and expensive PGU-46 doesn't hit that.
IIRC, NG is not claiming that the LW30 proximity is a ballistic match to the older rounds so they are free to do whatever
they want to address frontal and base drag as well as propellants.

Applying new propellants to already qualified rounds would require them to be requalifed and the FCS on the host systems modified.
Since you have to do that anyway for the LW30 proximity you might as well throw the above improvements at it.

The projectile shape is a match to LW30 HEI. They packed the prox fuze into the same volume as the original HEDP fuze.

And we're talking about energy/velocity at the muzzle, before projectile shape has had a significant impact.
 
LOCAAS's justification was the scud hunt in the gulf war not being satisfactory.

Given that the SCUD hunt was greatly complicated by weather quite how a LADAR-based weapon is credible is left as an
exercise for the reader. It lost out in part because the sensor-fuzed munitions were delivered the same way but were cheaper and
had more seeker modalities.

Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

LOCAAS is a little small for this.

Based on what? It's the size of typical C-RAM targets. Lots of systems capable of detecting and engaging that.

I'm sure you have an explanation as to how LOCASS gets initially delivered to its target; ATACMS is a perfectly fine way but
given the air-dropped version (it was from the super draggy CMD) it's going to have to be from stealth aircraft.
And given the small bay sizes on the loyal wingman birds, it's minimum F-35.

SFW are for armored columns and were already previously developed. I would imagine that the LOCAAS was considered, but too costly. Its main feature was that a couple of them could cover a great deal of area.

This was also a key piece of puzzle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveilling_Miniature_Attack_Cruise_Missile I would imagine it would fit in a F-35 bay.
 
The projectile shape is a match to LW30 HEI. They packed the prox fuze into the same volume as the original HEDP fuze.

And we're talking about energy/velocity at the muzzle, before projectile shape has had a significant impact.

The only way to settle this is do the interior ballistics to see what the upper bound on the LW30 could be.

Or

Dueling pistols!
 
SFW are for armored columns and were already previously developed. I would imagine that the LOCAAS was considered, but too costly. Its main feature was that a couple of them could cover a great deal of area.

This was also a key piece of puzzle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveilling_Miniature_Attack_Cruise_Missile I would imagine it would fit in a F-35 bay.

If you go back through, LOCAAS development predates the GW and was focused on anti-armor/interdiction. It got repurposed post GW to focus on the TMD/SEAD threat.

One big take-away from the SCUD hunt was that the dwell times were ample but the response times from shooters were poor.

So most of the counter relocatable target concepts in this period typically envisioned a fast bus (supersonic or hypersonic missile) delivering SFWs or
smarter glide (maybe loitering) weapons. The typical tradeoff was as you point out search area with the loitering or glide weapons being able image more ground
at the cost of....the cost.

I think LOCASS on SMACM is solving a different problem than the SCUD hunt as such.
 
Obviously, what the USAF really needs is a LOCAAS-type solution...

With all of the focus on counter-UAS (and counter lows and slows in general) this is going to be a short lived solution
against a high-end opponent.

Consider that a guided, 57mm round with an active seeker is available today in LRIP at $13,000/round.
And that's before we start talking about cheaper PABM, proximity airburst and the more exotic MAD-FIRES/HVP types.
Which is to say you are going to cover your TELs and other rear forces with large numbers (short range) of air defense systems?

I'd think high-end opponents would protect the rear area via simple (local) air superiority. Aerial sensors, micro munitions (including guns) and DEW can clean out large areas from low performance loitering munitions, and air directed CEC can defeat very large long range swarms as long as there is time for a response. As long as opponent ISR can be kept out high speed defense penetrating munitions can not be directed effectively against mobile targets.

I'd think C-RAM would be concentrated on maneuver forces that due to contact, can not be hidden and will be taking in all the fires.

The greatest attack effect when the defender loses control of the air as to allow ISR overhead and the attacker can allocate efficient attacks against various defensive strategies. Send swarms against volume limited systems, high performance systems against max performance limited systems and loitering/cover penetrating weapons against hidden opponents without much hard kill capability...etc
 
Which is to say you are going to cover your TELs and other rear forces with large numbers (short range) of air defense systems?

I was under the impression that PRC mobile batteries were already accompanied by SHORAD elements?

I'd think high-end opponents would protect the rear area via simple (local) air superiority. Aerial sensors, micro munitions (including guns) and DEW can clean out large areas from low performance loitering munitions, and air directed CEC can defeat very large long range swarms as long as there is time for a response. As long as opponent ISR can be kept out high speed defense penetrating munitions can not be directed effectively against mobile targets.

I can't see how A2A delivered weaponry beyond aerial cannon (where some of the advances in medium caliber stuff could go)
or dropping cluster munitions on swarms would ever be a cost effective solution.

I tend to think you'll see ISR degraded rather than denied which shifts the high speed penetration munitions to buses
carrying some of the higher-end VLO loitering type munitions a la. Vintage Racer.
 
I was under the impression that PRC mobile batteries were already accompanied by SHORAD elements?
Given how expensive and fragile is effective C-RAM against modern munitions and that launcher vehicles (plus their munitions) can be significantly cheaper, I'd think there'd never be enough of the former and much of the latter would count on passive defense for the most part. Some losses would just be the standard cost of war.

After all, no matter how much you stack ground air defenses, air power can mass and strike at the weakly defended part and get favorable trades.

I can't see how A2A delivered weaponry beyond aerial cannon (where some of the advances in medium caliber stuff could go)
or dropping cluster munitions on swarms would ever be a cost effective solution.
It depends on the size of the swarm vehicles being talked about here:

If we are talking swarms of Loyal Wingman or Harpy drones, some cheap missiles can still be economic, the price of barebones missiles go down with the same enabling tech of drone swarms, with the advantage of not needing anywhere nearly as much propulsion (air launched means launcher energy) or payload (don't need warhead capable of damaging hardened/armored land targets).

If we are talking about swarms of "backpack drones", even autocannons shells can be considered expensive and DEW would have to go or some kind of sub-scale drone with small guns. The lack of range+payload of such small aircraft means it would be basically "short range knife fight vehicles" that can not reach launcher vehicles in a world of 100km ranged artillery and 200km rockets and 500km tactical missiles. It would be a problem for front line forces, which likely have no defense outside of low cost (a front kept by cheap UAV/UGV/sensors) or dense anti-munition fires.

I tend to think you'll see ISR degraded rather than denied which shifts the high speed penetration munitions to buses
carrying some of the higher-end VLO loitering type munitions a la. Vintage Racer.
Vintage Racer is nice against ballistic weapons launchers that attempts to shoot and scoot. Still, I'd think decoys and other anti-sensor methods would be a more important and cost effective measure than kinetic kill, though the latter is a good to have when available. For low signature non-ballistic launches, I'm not sure how you are suppose to get coordinates.

Do note that weapons with insufficient range to stay out of targeting range of the opponent is a short lived one, and ranges would increased if that is what is needed to survive and be effective. Ranges will increase until the kill chain stops being reliable.


I guess this whole tangent could be construed as off-topic, but the whole point of the Century Series is to de-emphasize the individual fighter and focus more on the system of systems. Given that the main US adversary is the PRC and they have a huge arsenal of ASBM, I would think that one of the US' next fighter program would focus on hunting them.
If skyborg/loyal wingman don't fail, I can see F-35 with its internal bay filled with fuel while drones carry the munitions while F-35 brings the sensors. The F-35 would also get mid life upgrades for autonomous flight, so the "crew" no longer have to fly the airplane enabling ever longer sorties. (wonder who will be the first person to sleep though a carrier landing...)
 
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Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

Skeptical of ANY bullet-shooting gun being able to deal with a couple hundred of these coming over the trees:


IMO it's a waste of resources to even try. Energy weapons are the only way.
Generally, DEW should work, but what about when micro-UAS start wearing tin foil conspiracy hats and have an fuselage thermal load based auto jink programed in their flight control. Especially quick fixed wings are going to start challenging DEW intercept.
 
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Speaking of gun systems against the swarm:

"Advanced Battle Management Systems (ABMS) Counter Cruise Missile (c-CM) Experimentation Program: Hypervelocity Projectile (HVP) All-Up-Round (AUR) Experiment"

https://beta.sam.gov/opp/cd07843329...-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1

Skeptical of ANY bullet-shooting gun being able to deal with a couple hundred of these coming over the trees:


IMO it's a waste of resources to even try. Energy weapons are the only way.
Generally, DEW should work, but what about when micro-UAS start wearing tin foil conspiracy hats and have an fuselage thermal load based auto jink programed in their flight control. Especially quick fixed wings are going to start challenging DEW intercept.


I think the utility of DEWs is going to be mainly against commercial derivative types or the earlier military types
where the costs or retrofitting them with EM shielding or anything ablative or more laser resistant is prohibitive.

A designed-in resistance to these weapons is not particularly costly (I've read estimates in the 10 - 20% range)
though there's naturally a weight penalty and for shielding apertures a complexity penalty.

In-band lasers will probably ultimately win the battle against conventional IR apertures. Less clear on in-band microwave weapons against apertures.
 

ABMS is the Air Force’s piece of the Joint All-Domain Command and Control concept, which seeks to link all of the military’s aircraft, sensors and other weapons systems. Originally envisioned as a replacement for Air Force platforms, such as the E-8C JSTARS ground surveillance plane, the program has evolved into an Internet of Things for the military.
 
As sad as it can be, that's why you have retaliation strikes on infra...
Israeli airstrikes have leveled two apartment towers in the Gaza Strip [...]. Warning shots have allowed civilians to evacuate the buildings, but the material losses will be immense.
 
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As sad as it can be, that's why you have retaliation strikes on infra...
Real retaliation and cost exchange has not yet started. It will when Iran gets the bill for ordering their puppets to do this.
It could be interesting.
 
Speaking of rockets, wonder if Israel has proposed something similar to this. https://www.deagel.com/Tactical Vehicles/Rtut-BM/a003127

"The Rtut-BM, 'Mercury-BM' in English, is an electronic warfare (EW) system intended to protect troops and equipment from artillery rockets and shells equipped with proximity fuses which explode at 3-5 meters of altitude. The Rtut-BM affects the proximity/radio-controlled fuse making it explode at higher altitudes keeping the troops and equipment safe. Besides, the system is able to neutralize radio-frequencies employed by the enemy's communications. The Rtut-BM system is deployed on an MT-LB armored vehicle fitted with a television antenna which provides coverage for an area of 50 hectares (500,000 square meters) or a semi-sphere of 400 meters radius. The antenna can rotate -/+150-degree and its jamming signal can last for six minutes. This EW system requires a crew of two-man and can be ready for jamming within 10 minutes. The KRET corporation has been manufacturing and delivering KRET systems to the Russian Armed Forces since 2011."

Can such EW system equipment be placed on top of Israeli buildings or at least on top of schools? Any proposal from their country to develop similar EW systems?
 
...

Can such EW system equipment be placed on top of Israeli buildings or at least on top of schools? Any proposal from their country to develop similar EW systems?
I don‘t think Hamas rockets use radio proximity fuses nor any form of radio guidance. This are simple rockets with strike fuse. That’s why it is not usable.
 
If the individual 30mm rounds fused to proximity, had a simple swarm logic, could they not track individual targets rather than ALL targets? Less chance of the same target being hit by multiple rounds and some of the threat getting through.
 
Anything exploding on Israeli territory is success to the Palestinian side. The carnage for all will be worse before the end as I do not think the Israeli's can sustain the production of the anti-missile systems. This will cause them to "up the game" on Gaza I think. Could be wrong on that.
 
I think you are correct there, a civil war in the making and possibly another genocide to go with that. I keep hoping we are getting to the point of common sense but alas not.
 
It takes two to tango, both side have their blind spots that need to be addressed. Not just an Islamic problem.
 

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