The effect of subsidies and protectionism on the aircraft industry

Nick Sumner

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After reading through the fascinating thread on the Vickers V1000/VC7 I wanted to ask if anyone could point me to any studies/books/articles/theses on the role of national subsidies and protectionism in fostering an industry. Obviously here we are most concerned with the aircraft industry. If we consider commercial aircraft manufacturing countries I wonder if any authors have compared the challenges faced by Vickers-BAC, vis-a-vis those of Boeing/Douglas/Lockheed and Airbus Industrie.

To cast the net a little wider studies concerning the same issues in other manufacturing industries such as steel or motor vehicles might also be helpful.

Thanks in advance.
 
well, this is more of a generalization:

Protectionism and the destruction of Prosperity by Murray N. Rothbard
https://mises.org/rothbard/protectionism.pdf

hope this helps :)
 
Saintkatanalegacy, thanks.

However, this is a rather overwrought article - the end of the third paragraph ::) - it misses the point that the Japanese in the 1980s were very successful at protecting their industries they just didn't call it protectionism. It might ring true if American vehicle manufacturers (for instance)were able to market their goods in Japan with the same level of freedom that Japanese manufacturers marketed their goods in America. Foreign vehicles entering Japan had to undergo a battery of tests so intrusive that they significantly raised the price of the vehicles.

(I seem to recall reading somewhere that Reagan planned to pass legislation that would see Japanese goods undergo the same kind of testing when exported to America as American goods had to undergo when exported to Japan. This was all well and good until the Japanese showed Reagan who was boss by threatening not to purchase American debt. Anyone else remember this?)

In Japan there is a well established and fashionable kind of writing called Nihonjinron that claims to examine the distinctiveness of the Japanese people. Much of it consists only of fictitious justifications for Japanese commercial protectionism. For instance the claim that foreign cars are too big for Japanese roads, that foreign towels are too rough for Japanese skin, that foreign shampoos would not work on Japanese hair and that foreign beef could not be digested by Japanese stomachs.

Generally speaking, in the 70s and 80s while the West was banging the free-trade drum, nothing of the kind was happening in the East. Korea built a steel and shipbuilding industry on government subsidies. Even now the Chinese are manipulating the value of their currency to keep the cost of their goods down.

Which brings us to aircraft - wasn't Airbus heavily subsidised by European governments? Is subsidy the only way for an aircraft industry to prosper long term?

Thinking of the British case, though WW2 meant huge orders for the UKs aircraft manufacturers, the government fixed the prices so profits were poor (a kind of anti-subsidy). American manufacturers didn't suffer the same indignity so finished the war flush with money.

I don't know, I'm no economist, I support free trade but if only one side is doing it, it ain't free.

Any one else want to weigh in?
 
sealordlawrence said:
The fact is that the minute the state intervenes in any way, shape or form the market becomes distorted.

Sure. Let the bankers lead the world and the traders shape it unrestrained, and see what happens. There needs to be some regulation somewhere, because the human nature is made in such a way that if there is no wall, they'll always keep pushing their limits.

I have to say though that there is a limit to my reasoning. I'm against interventionism when a government decides (without asking for our consent) to put billions into a bank in order to save it from ruin. Especially when said bank continues to act like a rogue. The people's money should not go into saving private interests that have not been able to manage their business in a good way. I'm describing here a very concrete situation we have experienced in France of late.

Back to the aircraft industry, it once seemed that Dassault in France, like British Aerospace in England, and many more over the world, could do no wrong (these were times when it seemed not only just, but certainly the only sensible possibility, for a country to equip its troops, its pilots, its police, its public transportation systems... with material made at home). Two recurring obsessions —free competition and ever greater budget cuts— have allowed for once natural markets to be taken away from manufacturers. Not because their products were bad, not because there wasn't a demand, but because there was a requirement for open competition—with the inevitable corollary that the deciders usually go for the cheaper solution. And in the case of aviation and armament, at the same time, there is always a restriction put on the possibilities to market abroad because of the edge the technology might give other countries (I'm thinking of the Rafale in particular). When you can't sell home and can't sell abroad, what is there to do? No subsidies can solve that problem, because the problem is not the lack of money, but the lack of political will to preserve our industry and our jobs.
 
This topic is probably to complex for any forum. But one point I'll make it that it is easy to see the result of government intervention and much more difficult to imagine what the economy would look like without it. Frederic Bastiat talked about that which is seen and that which is unseen. His example was the "broken window" theory of economic growth. Someone breaks a window at a bakery and a window repairman comes to fix it "creating" economic activity for the repairman, that's what is seen.

However, the baker was going to use that money to put a down payment on a new bagel maker, which now he cannot do as he had to pay for the broken window. So now the bagel machine company has one less order, BUT no one sees that "loss" of economic activity.

These alternatives are also very difficult to quantify. Using the Airbus example you can point to the factories, the planes and the workers and say, "see it worked" but what if European governments had cut taxes and business regulations across the board? Would Europe have thousands more employed in the biotech, nanotech or pharmaceutical industries today? That is the unseen.
 
bobbymike said:
This topic is probably to complex for any forum. But one point I'll make it that it is easy to see the result of government intervention and much more difficult to imagine what the economy would look like without it. Frederic Bastiat talked about that which is seen and that which is unseen. His example was the "broken window" theory of economic growth. Someone breaks a window at a bakery and a window repairman comes to fix it "creating" economic activity for the repairman, that's what is seen.

However, the baker was going to use that money to put a down payment on a new bagel maker, which now he cannot do as he had to pay for the broken window. So now the bagel machine company has one less order, BUT no one sees that "loss" of economic activity.

These alternatives are also very difficult to quantify. Using the Airbus example you can point to the factories, the planes and the workers and say, "see it worked" but what if European governments had cut taxes and business regulations across the board? Would Europe have thousands more employed in the biotech, nanotech or pharmaceutical industries today? That is the unseen.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing!
 
One thing you may want to look into is the role of government subsidies in establishing commercially viable civil air travel and mail in the inter-war period. Tom D. Crouch (curator of the A&S museum in Washington) wrote about this in a chapter or so in his Wings book. As I recall it was government subsidies that made this possible (at least according to Crouch).

EDIT: Here's a link to the google books preview:
http://books.google.com/books?id=cXQmUf-JtNkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Wings:+A+History+of+Aviation+from+Kites+to+the+Space+Age&hl=en&ei=GFUuTezCHIO88ga36NCjCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCsQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false
Just search for the term "subsidies."
 
Nick Sumner said:
Saintkatanalegacy, thanks.

However, this is a rather overwrought article - the end of the third paragraph ::) - it misses the point that the Japanese in the 1980s were very successful at protecting their industries they just didn't call it protectionism. It might ring true if American vehicle manufacturers (for instance)were able to market their goods in Japan with the same level of freedom that Japanese manufacturers marketed their goods in America. Foreign vehicles entering Japan had to undergo a battery of tests so intrusive that they significantly raised the price of the vehicles.

(I seem to recall reading somewhere that Reagan planned to pass legislation that would see Japanese goods undergo the same kind of testing when exported to America as American goods had to undergo when exported to Japan. This was all well and good until the Japanese showed Reagan who was boss by threatening not to purchase American debt. Anyone else remember this?)

In Japan there is a well established and fashionable kind of writing called Nihonjinron that claims to examine the distinctiveness of the Japanese people. Much of it consists only of fictitious justifications for Japanese commercial protectionism. For instance the claim that foreign cars are too big for Japanese roads, that foreign towels are too rough for Japanese skin, that foreign shampoos would not work on Japanese hair and that foreign beef could not be digested by Japanese stomachs.

Generally speaking, in the 70s and 80s while the West was banging the free-trade drum, nothing of the kind was happening in the East. Korea built a steel and shipbuilding industry on government subsidies. Even now the Chinese are manipulating the value of their currency to keep the cost of their goods down.

Which brings us to aircraft - wasn't Airbus heavily subsidised by European governments? Is subsidy the only way for an aircraft industry to prosper long term?

Thinking of the British case, though WW2 meant huge orders for the UKs aircraft manufacturers, the government fixed the prices so profits were poor (a kind of anti-subsidy). American manufacturers didn't suffer the same indignity so finished the war flush with money.

I don't know, I'm no economist, I support free trade but if only one side is doing it, it ain't free.

Any one else want to weigh in?

sure... but look at the result:

-permanent bear market(Japan)
-high debt to GDP ratio(Japan)
-high costs in housing(Japan)
-slight vulnerability to currency/trade wars(export dependent countries)
-manipulation of currency creates inflation(add 7% to the "official inflation data" of China)
 
saintkatanalegacy said:
sure... but look at the result:

-permanent bear market(Japan)
-high debt to GDP ratio(Japan)
-high costs in housing(Japan)
-slight vulnerability to currency/trade wars(export dependent countries)
-manipulation of currency creates inflation(add 7% to the "official inflation data" of China)

I don't disagree, but these are long term results - most governments (particularly democracies) are short term in outlook - also Toyota is the biggest car manufacturer in the world and Japan has the most powerful auto industry. So what wa bad for Japan wa good for some of Japans industries.

One minor disagreement - the cost of housing in Japan is because of population and land area.
 
Nick Sumner said:
One minor disagreement - the cost of housing in Japan is because of population and land area.
ask Niall Ferguson ;)

you might also refer to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

as I mentioned, Japan is a permanent bear market. It became a bubble due to speculation and intervention from the government(tariffs etc.) without anything to back it up.

obviously, countries with debt problems are the ones hit most by credit bubbles...

all of these are part of the deflationary spiral since real estates are "hot assets"
 
NS#1: R.Williams,European Technology(Politics of Collaboration) CroomHelm,1973; Economics of Industrial Subsidies, UK Dept of Industry,HMSO,1976.

This is deeply fraught; you can take post-graduate courses in this. The A is exactly what you want it to be. If you choose to leave your own industry to survive on its wit and flair...but the other guy ladles out the gravy...Same argument as banning the trade in arms, or binning the Bomb.

pr's point about Civil Aircraft Launch Aid is right: the scheme is/was that Govts would stump up X% (in UK, commonly 50%) of the upfront estimate of total R&D cost; industry would find the rest and would pick up 100% of overrun on estimate; repayment by Sales Levy (in UK, in the range 5%-7.5% of revenue) taking priority (negotiated, not 100%) on declaration of profit, so dividend to shareholders. If sales proved abysmal, industry took a loss and Govt. wrote off its unrecovered investment.

R.Miller/D.Sawers,Technical Devt. of Modern Aviation,Routledge,68,P.162: Engines:summary from MoA 1965 Plowden Report;
P.Gummett,Civil & MilitaryA/c in UK,P.211,History&Technology,92/9:1945-March,’74, Aero Launch Aid, at 1974 input prices: Outlays: £1,505.4Mn.; receipts: £141.9Mn.
Miller,P.195: Govt.: “effort to gain a place (in the civil a/c) market thus ended in almost total failure after (>£90Mn) investment…£25Mn…repaid in royalties”.
C.Barnett (but beware of his agenda),The Verdict of Peace, Macmillan,2001,P.609: it would have been “more profitable for the taxpayer to invest (in) plastic garden gnomes.”
 
Thanks for the leads alertken - got to be honest I'm very wary of Barnet when he talks about aviation - the two chapters in Audit of War about the aircraft industry were complete bolox.

What is that guys agenda?
 
Nick Sumner said:
Thanks for the leads alertken - got to be honest I'm very wary of Barnet when he talks about aviation - the two chapters in Audit of War about the aircraft industry were complete bolox.

What is that guys agenda?

See: http://tcbh.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/3/360.full.pdf+html

Barnett and Edgerton had an argument in various papers and journals for a while. See also Edgertons 'Warfare State', 2006. P.301 et seq. (available via Google Books)
 
I agree with Barnet about most things but as I say, bit warry of him when it come to aircraft. The two chapters about British aircraft manufacture in 'Audit of War' have been heavily rebutted by not only Edgerton but several others including Sebastian Ritchie in 'Industry and Airpower' and a very good article (which I can't find at the moment) in one of the UK business journals called (IIRC) 'A New Audit of War' which attacks the methodology he uses to get productivity statistics (among other things).

His analysis of the shipbuilding industy has also inspired rebuttal, notably by D.K. Brown and I.L. Buxton.

If he wanted to make a point about an inept performance in UK manufacturing inustry I don't understand why he didn't devote much more time to British tanks which were a succession of mediocre designs or worse still designs that would have been satisfactory had their entry into service not been delayed by periods of years. 'Rude Mechanicals' by A.J. Smithers and 'The Great Tank Scandal' by David Fletcher go into the subject in detail, Smithers actually treats the whole subject as comedy.
 
harrier said:
See: http://tcbh.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/3/360.full.pdf+html

Barnett and Edgerton had an argument in various papers and journals for a while. See also Edgertons 'Warfare State', 2006. P.301 et seq. (available via Google Books)

Thanks for this, that one is now on my reading list, Gawd knows when I'll get around to it though!
 
EU and US set to end Airbus-Boeing trade dispute after 17 years
(ft.com, subscription or registration may be required)

The EU and US are poised to resolve a 17-year dispute over aircraft subsidies, lifting the threat of billions of dollars in punitive tariffs on their economies in a boost to transatlantic relations.
Diplomats and officials confirmed on Monday night that two days of intensive negotiations in Brussels had left the EU and the Biden administration with a draft deal on subsidy rules for Airbus and Boeing. The breakthrough is set to be finalised on Tuesday at US president Joe Biden’s first EU-US summit meeting in Brussels.
“I am very positive that we will find an agreement on the Airbus-Boeing issue today, in our conversation with our American friends,” Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said on Tuesday morning. “I am very positive and convinced that we will deliver together today.”

People close to the talks said the governments of Airbus’s three home countries in the EU — Germany, France, and Spain — were being consulted on the draft deal ahead of it being confirmed on Tuesday.
The deal will take the form of a five-year accord to suspend punitive tariffs linked to the disagreement, coupled with the creation of a working group and ministerial dialogue on subsidy limits, according to people close to the talks.
The intention is that this will ensure the disagreement never re-emerges, including for new aircraft models.

We will see if this will actually go through and survive long term.
 

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