TMA1

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Great picture. It truly is a lovely aircraft.

I am thinking that it would be smart for Russia to heavily subsidize the checkmate program for key allies so that it would (if it delivers on promises) become irresistible to customers.
 

Scar

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If the Russian air force buys in then I can see Sukhoi following through to production aircraft; otherwise I question where the funding comes from.
There is no such a thing as Sukhoi, on itself. There is a United Aircraft Corporation inside the state-owned superholding Rostec.
 

Josh_TN

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If the Russian air force buys in then I can see Sukhoi following through to production aircraft; otherwise I question where the funding comes from.
There is no such a thing as Sukhoi, on itself. There is a United Aircraft Corporation inside the state-owned superholding Rostec.
Fair enough, but I still think a local buy of this product is necessary to achieve anything like that timeline. Failing that, it needs a major stake holder who will pay up front. Turkey and India are the only places that I think would have the need and deep enough pockets.
 

FighterJock

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If the Russian air force buys in then I can see Sukhoi following through to production aircraft; otherwise I question where the funding comes from.
There is no such a thing as Sukhoi, on itself. There is a United Aircraft Corporation inside the state-owned superholding Rostec.

I had thought that Russia kept the Sukhoi name mainly for overseas customers and only used United Aircraft Corporation for inside Russia. This whole issue gets more confusing the more I hear of it.
 

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Is this some sort of KAB250 being launched from the side bays, or am I reading too much in it?

Smaller I think? The video implies it is an air-to-ground weapon (170-200kg? Missile?) - however it might just be a generic 'prospective missile' artistic concept.

If the Su-57 and Su-75 have the option to mount three ejectors in the main bays - then it might make sense to develop an air-to-ground weapon for internal carriage that matches RVV-SD dimensions. It isn't implausible.
 

LMFS

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Fair enough, but I still think a local buy of this product is necessary to achieve anything like that timeline. Failing that, it needs a major stake holder who will pay up front. Turkey and India are the only places that I think would have the need and deep enough pockets.
LTS is developed by Rostec with money of their own (this is not exactly a small company, plus development costs in Russia are incomparably lower than in the West) and from Industry Ministry, in a project explicitly supported by the president and where Chemezov has already said that VKS wants the plane and that they are in negotiation with them. Plus they have already said that they don't need any foreign partner. So, of course there will be a local buy, such a big project would not be initiated without other funding than fully unreliable foreign partnership. This plane is a no brainer for the VKS and current export effort is to be understood as a simple business initiative, not as some desperate measure to make the program viable.

Apart from that, basing the plane in the already tested technologies, systems and probably production line of the Su-57 and using digital engineering (design done in one year), it seems they seem very sure of an extremely lean and quick flight testing program. With the experience accumulated after PAK-FA and Okhotnik, I would find it remarkable from Sukhoi if they were deluding themselves with a fully unrealistic schedule.
 
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TR1

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You got the order mixed up. The business initiative is inseparable from the program's existence, while VKS participation is both opportunistic on the part of the VKS, and very preferable for UAC. Half "see if it works and we don't have to pay for it" and half "the MiCH and industry and investment and trade ministries asked us to add legitimacy/possible funding in the future". It's a revolving door in terms of personnel between all of the above anyways.

VKS might very well want the plane if it comes together well, but clearly they have been in no rush to pay for it nor do they consider it a big priority.
They wanted the advanced Izd.305 missile for their attack helos, but trickled funding at best until FSB/SSO paid for it. I don't see this as really different. A serious program like a new jet fighter does not suddenly appear despite there being no mention in GOZ/GVP plans of recent years, no serious indication by by the MOD or VKS they are looking at another type (while plenty of talk about Su-57, legacy types, new drones, other stuff planned 10+ years out in terms of force structure), nor immediately obvious institutional need for the plane. VKS is licking its lips looking at Su-57, PAK-DA, new transports, Okhotnik and Kronshtadt's drones, while for T-75 the response is:




sort-of-want.jpg
 
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Scar

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If the Russian air force buys in then I can see Sukhoi following through to production aircraft; otherwise I question where the funding comes from.
There is no such a thing as Sukhoi, on itself. There is a United Aircraft Corporation inside the state-owned superholding Rostec.
Fair enough, but I still think a local buy of this product is necessary to achieve anything like that timeline. Failing that, it needs a major stake holder who will pay up front. Turkey and India are the only places that I think would have the need and deep enough pockets.
Of course our AF needs to purchase LTS, yet not for the sake of support its foreign sales, but because our AF really need it as the most numerous workhorse which can saturate our airforce fleet with 5gen. fighters. Anyway, with or without the orders from our MoD, i'm 100% LTS will find its buyers. Just because LTS is a 42 to the modern AND independent combat aviation world. Having strong MiG-21 DNA in its concept, this aircraft simply can't be a failure, as a product inside or abroad the country. I was waiting for this bird for more than 20 years. And finally, it's coming for real.
 

Archibald

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Having strong MiG-21 DNA in its concept, this aircraft simply can't be a failure, as a product inside or abroad the country. I was waiting for this bird for more than 20 years. And finally, it's coming for real.
Bingo. Thinking the same.
In a sense, it is to the Su-57, what MiG-29 was to Su-27, or MiG-23 to Foxbat... the low end that is cheaper and exportable...
 

kaiserd

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It’s certainly being directly or indirectly financed by Russian state-owned or effectively stated controlled entities. And as stated above by other contributors Sukhoi itself is a component part of a state-owned aviation conglomerate.
Hence irrespective of it is a success or failure or if it involves or does not involve any orders for Russia itself the Russian state (and the Russian people) are still going to be paying for this and are effectively carrying the risk.
The comments above by some contributors appear to indicate at least a detachment from this reality.
 

Josh_TN

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I was unaware of Sukhoi's structure. Their timeline never the less seems quite optimistic. We shall see.
 

LMFS

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You got the order mixed up. The business initiative is inseparable from the program's existence,
Who says it isn't. The export sales is part of the plane's business case, and the LTS being a potentially very successful plane in the export allows MOD to play it cool and leave Rostec take the initiative. But Russians have already stated explicitly that they do not depend on any foreign partner for developing the plane, it is a national project. And that implies national defence too, one way or another. Tell me last time you have seen such a big program being organized without MoD buying.

VKS might very well want the plane if it comes together well, but clearly they have been in no rush to pay for it nor do they consider it a big priority. They wanted the advanced Izd.305 missile for their attack helos, but trickled funding at best until FSB/SSO paid for it. I don't see this as really different.
They want many things and they don't have the money to fully pay all of them, so it is nice if the developers find other sources of funding, both domestic and foreign.

A serious program like a new jet fighter does not suddenly appear despite there being no mention in GOZ/GVP plans of recent years, no serious indication by by the MOD or VKS they are looking at another type (while plenty of talk about Su-57, legacy types, new drones, other stuff planned 10+ years out in terms of force structure), nor immediately obvious institutional need for the plane.
You mean this is no serious program? No mention in state armaments program you say:

"In the plans of the future GPV, [the Ministry of Defense and the Aerospace Forces] will consider the possibility of acquiring it [the fighter]," the Deputy Prime Minister said.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/12427691

There have been talks about a light fighter in Russia for ages. I can be wrong, but my gut feeling is that it was expected that this would go to MiG and maybe that is the reason there have been no big news about LTS until very recently, when Sukhoi managed to steal the initiative by leveraging the results of the PAK-FA program.

VKS is licking its lips looking at Su-57, PAK-DA, new transports, Okhotnik and Kronshtadt's drones, while for T-75 the response is:
The response is zero, they have said nothing publicly. But Chemezov says they want it, both Borisov and Manturov have hinted many times at domestic buys and quite honestly it is rather obvious they will buy, for many reasons.

You say the VKS does not "really" want it, but you don't say it will not buy it, do you? We will see if this plane does not end up forming the backbone of the VKS.
 

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https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=560445&lang=RU

Russia expects to resume joint development with the UAE of a light fighter of the 5th generation based on Checkmate - the head of the UAC

14.11.2021 16:31:31
Dubai. November 14th. INTERFAX - The presentation of the Checkmate aircraft in Dubai is aimed at reviving the project for the joint development of a fifth-generation light fighter with the UAE, said Yuri Slyusar, head of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC).
"Since 2017, we have had a certain pause (in the implementation of the agreement - IF), but now the international premiere of this aircraft here in Dubai is the development of this project for a fifth-generation aircraft, in pursuance of this agreement with the UAE," Slyusar told reporters at Dubai Airshow-2021 on Sunday.
He explained that joint development with the Arab side is envisaged, which can begin with the Checkmate project.
"It's not a joint product yet, but we really hope that the joint work will continue," Slyusar said.
"We came here just to activate our negotiation process on the implementation of the agreement on the LFMS (light front-line multifunctional aircraft - IF) from 2017. We have several days of work ahead of us together with colleagues," the head of the UAC said.
In February 2017, the head of Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, announced that Russia and the United Arab Emirates would jointly develop a light fighter of the 5th generation. According to him, the aircraft can be created on the basis of the MiG-29, work will begin in 2018 and will take about 7-8 years.
The signing of an agreement with the UAE on the subject of a light front-line multifunctional aircraft of the fifth generation was also reported in the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) of Russia.
In March 2017, Ilya Tarasenko, being the CEO of the MiG Corporation, said that an improved version of the fifth-generation fighter being developed jointly with the UAE would be offered to the Russian Aerospace Forces. "We are already at the stage of developing this aircraft, and I think that in the coming years we will present this aircraft to the public," Tarasenko said.
In June of the same year, the head of Rosoboronexport, Alexander Mikheev, told Interfax that Russia and the UAE were consulting and agreeing on the technical parameters of the future aircraft.
No work on the joint project has been reported since then.


The UAE is about to have real red vs blue exercises with two different 5th gens.
 
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Josh_TN

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The UAE is about to have real red vs blue exercises with two different 5th gens.

"About to" seems rather premature. I'd go with "maybe by 2027 if everything goes according to the brochure."
arent they ahead of schedule for production 2025, or they still on 2026?
The plane that is currently a mock up is scheduled for 2026 and one of the spokesman said they'd like to move that 'to the left' or something of that nature.

If Sukhoi puts it into production by 2026, it would be the aviation coup of the century. Presumably shipments to the UAE wouldn't be a thing until 2027, even if they hit that mark?
 

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It occurs to me that LTS could be described as generation 5+ with it being part of a networked family of systems, having greater AI integration, and a focus on cost control. With 6th generation being completely tailless, variable cycle engined, and having sufficient excess power for some kind of DEW. Of course, I think this shows just how the 'generations' concept is flawed... there can be more than one way to move forward. On thing I find interesting though, is the lack of the appearance of a new missile generation (development on that seems to be lagging, but might be highly classified and further along than we think). Anyway, just a though on how "5+" could mean different things to different doctrines.
 

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I had always thought that the Su-75 was a generation five plus aircraft and not a sixth generation fighter as it is going to share the same technology as the Su-57. The sixth generation are still in the early stages of being designed look at NGAD and Tempest for example.
 

tequilashooter

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They have more than enough aviation projects from upgrading Su-57s, to using su-70s and the Su-75. I dont want the next state armement budget to just focus on its funding for just the LTS which seems like they are getting another country involved to finance it which I am hoping will be the case, I am sure the next state armement budget will focus on production of su-70s, but also to start a next gen platform from an aircraft to three stream cycle engines to another which I am still shooting for with past reports of near hypersonic interceptors(mig-41) which further re-enforces the concept with rostec reporting success for aviation platforms to use detonation engines along with photonic radars since they are working on the software part related to these radars. Than there is PAK-DA, so its like damn I am hoping nordstream 2 and other arctic oil projects will boost more spending for more fun projects.
 

riggerrob

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As for estimating time to first flight, time to production and time to first export .... remember that the LTS Checkmate looks like it incorporates stock Sukhoi 57: tail surfaces, wing surfaces, cockpit, avionics, engine, missiles, etc.
Using proven systems that are currently in production vastly reduces risk and development time.
 

LMFS

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It occurs to me that LTS could be described as generation 5+ with it being part of a networked family of systems, having greater AI integration, and a focus on cost control. With 6th generation being completely tailless, variable cycle engined, and having sufficient excess power for some kind of DEW. Of course, I think this shows just how the 'generations' concept is flawed... there can be more than one way to move forward. On thing I find interesting though, is the lack of the appearance of a new missile generation (development on that seems to be lagging, but might be highly classified and further along than we think). Anyway, just a though on how "5+" could mean different things to different doctrines.
The generation thing is very confusing right now, mainly becasue US started so soon with 5th gen, that some manufacturers are claiming now 6th for what could be considered delayed 5th gen designs, but I agree to see the LTS as 5+ as of now, with arguments for being 6th gen in a mature production. To me there are a series of key elements for what could be called 6th from today's perspective:

- Development through digital engineering
- Autonomous unmanned capability
- Adaptive engines
- Production via additive technologies

The LTS fulfils the first and is supposed (with varying degree of evidence reliability) to fulfil the others in the future too. I don't know if there is going to be a clear airframe difference between 5th and 6th gen like there was between 3th and 4th or 4th and 5th. Tailless design is hyped as the main external characteristic in that regard, but will it be like that for real? Even in that regard, the LTS with minimal (or backup) horizontal elevators and most of the pitch moment being likely created by the TVC would be already a step in that direction. The involved technologies are evolving progressively and we are probably not quite there yet to say where the cut between the 5ht and 6th gen paradigm needs to be placed.
 

icyplanetnhc (Steve)

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I think the “5th generation” label that we're familiar with today wasn’t very well defined until the F-22 came on the scene. Certainly, the Soviets saw the next-generation successor to the MiG-29 and Su-27 differently from the US successor to the F-15; for the Soviets, the I-90 and MFI program was focused on multirole capability and payload as well as speed and high-AOA, while the American ATF was focused purely on an air superiority fighter, with stealth, speed, and integrated avionics being the key enabling technology. Later 5th generation programs were more aligned to the characteristics of the F-22, though obviously still tailored to their own requirements. For instance, the PAK FA’s goal was to create an affordable multirole stealth fighter, and Sukhoi’s design considered the F-22 as the baseline while emphasizing greater range, payload, and 3D thrust vectoring. It brought forth its own unique capabilities while not trying to match or exceed the F-22 in every performance parameter, as the requirements and goals were different.
 
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tequilashooter

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Even the avionics portion for gen requirements are different, thought the f-22 was going the side radars route from the past like the su-57(maybe the upgrade it will?) Than I assumed the LTS was going the su-57 route but went the f-35 route with its avionics. F-22 and su-57 different engine performances where one values speed and the other values range than 2nd stage for su-57 states why not both. Maybe some will think GaN AESA is a 6th gen radar requirement while others will think it's ROFAR. 3 stream cycles engines are a great idea for both, but the other might have more advantages than the other in the hypersonic fly-wing field that they can do something different later on where altitude differences might matter more as a requirement than stealth.
 

GARGEAN

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Cynicism?.. "Current" T-75 is literally a mockup. HOW it can be considered any generation, let alone 5+?
 

TMA1

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It occurs to me that LTS could be described as generation 5+ with it being part of a networked family of systems, having greater AI integration, and a focus on cost control. With 6th generation being completely tailless, variable cycle engined, and having sufficient excess power for some kind of DEW. Of course, I think this shows just how the 'generations' concept is flawed... there can be more than one way to move forward. On thing I find interesting though, is the lack of the appearance of a new missile generation (development on that seems to be lagging, but might be highly classified and further along than we think). Anyway, just a though on how "5+" could mean different things to different doctrines.
Smaller, truncated anti-missile missiles that also act as short range AAM I think is one of the new evolutions. The west is looking towards this. Ruskies have a new interceptor missile of long range which would carry four smaller short range AAMs. Future is going to be crazy.

I think if the checkmate succeeds it might initially have trouble finding buyers. If it truly succeeds though it will eventually catch on. I understand the cynicism and russian media and politicians puff up their products quite a bit, but this thing truly looks like it hits all the check marks. I haven't been so excited for a fighter project since I was a kid and heard rumors of the JSF program.
 

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There are also features that might not make it for some aircrafts like back in 2009 someone thought that their new 5th gen was to be the 1st 5th gen to use a DIRCM and we all know how that turned out to this day in which ironically another country turns out being the 1st to do so for their own 5th gen. Therefore dont set your expectations too high even I am starting to see the PAK-DA or any heavy stealth bomber as a waste because of the Su-70s from my personal opinion.
 

Scar

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HOW it can be considered any generation, let alone 5+?
In the same way as ATF and JSF were considered 5gen.? Even before their first mockups were build, let alone their first flying prototypes. By the set of key requirements/features and technologies behind their concepts.

Surprised you didn't know that. You seemed like a pretty knowledgeable person to me.
 

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So you are viewing empty mockup as 5+ gen and plane that will grow out of this mockup a 6 gen?
Wait 5/10/15 years and we will see if your cynicism is justified


Come one ... since years some Russians are claiming EVERYTHING for the Su-57 and still it is not yet in service in the once proclaimed numbers. As such it si NOT cynism and even lesser bad-wishing but simply an observation and experience based on following this topic since the last three decades.

As such IMO any concerns or being sceptical on such claims are more than justified.

On a funny side-note I see the same habit on some Indians for the Tejas Mk.2: NOW everything will be better, it will fly in 2023 and reach front-line status in 20256/2026, promised! And here to I have no faith at all that they will met their own timeline this time.
 

Scar

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Come one ... since years some Russians are claiming EVERYTHING for the Su-57
Excuse me. What these claims, made by "some Russians", have to do with a person we know under the nickname LMFS and the discussion about fighter jets generations?!

BTW, i remember some Westerners claimed that PAK FA, Okhotnik, Tzirkon and many other are fake/vaporware and wont fly ever. And...???
 

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Come one ... since years some Russians are claiming EVERYTHING for the Su-57
Excuse me. What these claims, made by "some Russians", have to do with a person we know under the nickname LMFS and the discussion about fighter jets generations?!

BTW, i remember some Westerners claimed that PAK FA, Okhotnik, Tzirkon and many other are fake/vaporware and wont fly ever. And...???

Please be careful, I never said it won't EVER fly and only since it flew much too late in lesser numbers, any other claims are correct.
This black and white only is a stupid analogy...

Point is similar to some Russians some Indians constantly claim a lot since years: The XXX will be this and that, will enter service then and here in this and that numbers at that certain cost and still nothing, at least not at the claimed date, nor the claimed numbers if ever.

As such I have IMO several more than justified reasons not to believe when now again "some Russians and some Indians" claim again that YYY will be this and that, will enter service then and here in this and that numbers at that certain cost. Why? When not even the previous generation type is ready and no schedule was ever met, why should it happen this time?

XXX = PAK-FA or Tejas Mk.1 or whatever ... and YYY = Su-75/LFS or Tejas Mk. 2 or AMCA or whatever.
 
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Scar

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Please be careful, I never said it won't EVER fly
And i never said you did. Read my post carefully, you'll see i've made analogy "some Russians>>some Westerners" to show it's not objective and has no relation to fighter jet generations.

If we were talking about super-duper-hypersonic MiG-41, i'd agree with you. But LTS is just an affordable single-engine 2 Mach fighter jet that heavily relies on the whole airframe parts, electronics, engine, weapons and other systems already designed for Su-57. Even after USSR collapse, it took only 5 years, for Sukhoi, to develop Su-30MKI and start its serial production. So i don't see why Sukhoi can't make the same nowdays, when it's in the much better shape than it was in the second half of 1990's.
 

tequilashooter

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Come one ... since years some Russians are claiming EVERYTHING for the Su-57
Excuse me. What these claims, made by "some Russians", have to do with a person we know under the nickname LMFS and the discussion about fighter jets generations?!

BTW, i remember some Westerners claimed that PAK FA, Okhotnik, Tzirkon and many other are fake/vaporware and wont fly ever. And...???

Please be careful, I never said it won't EVER fly and only since it flew much too late in lesser numbers, any other claims are correct.
This black and white only is a stupid analogy...

Point is similar to some Russians some Indians constantly claim a lot since years: The XXX will be this and that, will enter service then and here in this and that numbers at that certain cost and still nothing, at least not at the claimed date, nor the claimed numbers if ever.

As such I have IMO several more than justified reasons not to believe when now again "some Russians and some Indians" claim again that YYY will be this and that, will enter service then and here in this and that numbers at that certain cost. Why? When not even the previous generation type is ready and no schedule was ever met, why should it happen this time?

XXX = PAK-FA or Tejas Mk.1 or whatever ... and YYY = Su-75/LFS or Tejas Mk. 2 or AMCA or whatever.
I don't want to be the smart-ass here...... But I hope we are not comparing pre- Ukraine 2014 sanction production numbers to production numbers after sanctions with the LTS production numbers as the same thing.
 
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Evgeniy

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since years some Russians are claiming EVERYTHING for the Su-57 and still it is not yet in service in the once proclaimed numbers.

Words without real contractual confirmation on paper are nothing more than air shuffling. Even if "the air is shaken," people with epaulets and ministers.
The first contract that was signed for 2 Su-57s dates from August 22, 2018. Second from 2019. And the production schedule surfaced in general in 2020.
 

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The Su-57 would never have made its initial serial production date of 2016 simply because the aircraft required a structural redesign due to structural cracking issues during flight tests. This resulted in the "first stage" and "second stage" airframes.

I suppose the LTS can save time by reusing Su-57 components, but systems integration and flight testing even for something seemingly simple like modifications aren’t trivial, to say the least…
 
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tequilashooter

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The Su-57 would never have made its initial serial production date of 2016 simply because the aircraft required a structural redesign due to structural cracking issues during flight tests. This resulted in the "first stage" and "second stage" airframes.
Sources please and make sure they are good, not bad ones like me taking General Brown or Christopher millers opinion on the f-35.
 

icyplanetnhc (Steve)

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The Su-57/T-50 structural issues are well known, and covered by Piotr Butowski and confirmed by program insiders, as @flanker and @flateric can verify.

The T-50 was originally meant to have six flying prototypes, plus a static test airframe and a systems integration airframe (KNS). The first two prototypes cracked after MAKS-2011, as evidenced by the lull in flight testing for much of the following year, and the numerous structural reinforcements applied to them and in following airframes (including a reinforced metal alloy section in the fuselage between the wings). This resulted in a deeper structural redesign with T-50-6 being the first of the “second stage” aircraft, and T-50-7 being the static test airframe for the redesigned structure; the T-50-7 that we now see in photos is actually a repainted T-50-KNS.
 
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Scar

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Cracks or not, there really were two stages of the airframe design. And it's normal, just look how different YF-22 and F-22. And no one, even among the Russian aviation and military community, being in his right mind, believed that serial production of Su-57 will be started in 2016, not speaking about IOC. Just because PAK FA demanded a helluva lot of new technologies, from the MIC that was almost killed by the Soviet Union collapse. But now we have all of them, so LTS is going by the beaten path made by PAK FA. And this fact can't be ignored or denied. Especially seeing how much LTS got from PAK FA, literally.
 
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