Space 1975

[uk 75]

Ever since I discovered Mark Wade's Encyclopaedia Astronautica I have been fascinated by what if space flight in the period of the 70s and 80s. I know this is well covered here and elsewhere, but with a Chinese rabbit running around the moon, I thought I would ask this well worn question.

If Werner Von Braun had prevailed and the US had carried on using the Saturn family as the basis for its spaceflight rather than the Shuttle programme what might US spaceflight have been able to do that it has not done with the Shuttle etc.

I was also prompted to this by noting that current US rocket programmes seem to still be drawing on the Apollo Saturn family technology. However, I am very much a layman.

 

[Byeman]

I was also prompted to this by noting that current US rocket programmes seem to still be drawing on the Apollo Saturn family technology. However, I am very much a layman.

No, they are drawing on ICBM (Atlas, Thor, Titan, etc) legacy, which predates Saturn.

 

[Michel Van]

had Soviet manage to land a cosmonaut on moon in early 1970s
The USA had counter that by keeping the Saturn V alive and launching Payloads


i think they had take a revise version of Apollo Application program.
Dual lunar landing Mission (LM shelter and LM taxi) for 90 days.
and in between series of Skylabs, evolving with each new station


so in 1980s the USA got Skylab D with 12 men in orbit and made so far around 20 apollo moon landings

 

[Archibald]

There was no lack of options that were floated around, so there's a rather infinite number of scenarios.
Low-key option: more and more Skylabs, Salyut-style. Block III Apollo riding a Saturn IB. IT can last well into the 80's, or perhaps the 90's, but what's the point ? At some point or another it might be cut by Congress as unuseful.
High-key options: keep Saturn V and lunar exploration running, eventually leading to a lunar base.
You need a strong (presidential) decision to be made between July 1968 (when Saturn V production was SUSPENDED) and January 1970 (when Saturn V production line was SCRAPPED definitively).

Back in November 1968 Nixon hired nothing less than a Nobel Prize (and laser inventor) Charles Townes as a transition team space advisor. Townes report was published Janaury 8, 1969 and expressedly recommended to keep Apollo running.
Townes team was against a space station and against the shuttle, and Townes felt Mars was a bridge too far.
Unfortunately NASA administrator Paine bypassed Townes and went directly to Nixon... and VP Spiro Agnew. Nixon went with Paine opinion and created the Space Task Group. Paine asked for everything but the kitchen sink - space station and shuttle and lunar base and mars and $10 billion a year for NASA over decades, 3 times what Nixon was really willing to spend.
Nixon politely red the STG report and on March 7 1970 said "for $3.5 billion a year, build the shuttle. Goodbye."

Now had Nixon followed Townes advice... January 1969 is still not too late to save Saturn V. That rocket production line was just on hold.

As for the Soviets - since they had lost leadership of the space race circa 1965, they were in a defensive position that amounted to "we will do what the american do, mimicking them".

So had Nixon picked up the Mars option, the soviet had a symmetrical option on the shelves, a nuclear-electric Mars ship they called Aelita.
More Apollo ? build the L3M, the improved N-1F rocket, and the DLB lunar base (all are detailed at Astronautix)
Or perhaps the american will build a big space station ? fine, the soviet had the MKBS project.

What the Soviets did not have (before 1976 and Buran !) was a shuttle project. The soviet military hated it, the soviet aeronautics and rocket branches hated each other since 1960, when Krushchev had shut down bomber design bureau by the dozens and sold them to the rocket scientists, just because the future belongued to the ICBM and not the bomber.
The shuttle was half an aircraft and half a rocket, but on the soviet Union both sides somewhat hated each others.
So it took 7 years to shake the Soviet inertia and start a shuttle program... there's no trace of a soviet shuttle before 1976... even if nixon had started the US shuttle as early as January 1972 !

 

[Michel Van]

the Saturn V production tools was keep mothballed so long in case, the soviets will land on moon in 1970s
check his Memorandum I-46 (special thank to "e of Pi" from Alternate History forum for this link)
http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4407/vol4/cover.pdf

Pain insane Idea in detail

"Integrated Manned Space Flight Program"

A proposal that similar to "2001 A space odyssey" infrastructure with 102~156 US astronauts synchronous in space !
for 1980s:
Manned Space Base with 48 astronauts, several manned chemical Tug in orbit for various task
GEO Space station with 12-24 Astronauts
several Nuclear Tugs for Earth moon and Earth Mars mission
a Lunar Base with 24-48 men and Lunar orbit station with 12-24 men, with manned chemical Tug for orbit-surface transfer .
Manned Mission to Mars with 6-12 men with option for temporal base on mars
and over 40 launches of Saturn V and hundreds Shuttle flights

The prise tag was $500 Billion in 1969 (today one Trillion us Dollars!)

No wonder Nixon "take STG dossier with a tongs"

on other spectrum he had also the option to shut down the manned US space flight completely, after Skylab and close JSC and MSFC left NASA budget with only $3 billion/year.
in same time the CIA explained that N1 program was total failure after a N1 fall full fuel on it's launch pad and explode like little Nuke
while the Chinese had other problems

so Nixon took time from 1968 to 1972 ! to make a decision: the Space shuttle

 

[uk 75]

Gentlemen

Thank you for the useful and comprehensive info.

Looks as if there was not much practical alternative to the Shuttle programme, given the military requirements of the time.
Could the Saturn V (like Energia?) have been used for some of the Shuttle work, rather like the Titans. Or were the Titans a better bet?

 

[Michel Van]

Gentlemen

Thank you for the useful and comprehensive info.

Looks as if there was not much practical alternative to the Shuttle programme, given the military requirements of the time.
Could the Saturn V (like Energia?) have been used for some of the Shuttle work, rather like the Titans. Or were the Titans a better bet?

On use of Saturn V on Shuttle work, Grumman and Boeing proposed to use the First stage S-IC as booster for shuttle !
other proposed for original Shuttle wing fist stage to use to launch Saturn V upper stage. for heavy cargo.

Titan IIIc were cheap, NASA wanted the option to use the Titan IIIM (for Apollo CSM) and it's unmanned version called IIIF (with various upper stages).
it had be hell of bargin for USAF and NASA join-Venture, it had drop the production & launch on Titan IIIM/F
but in 1968 MOL got canceled under Johnson and it launcher Titan IIIM/F along, also came the Shuttle with false promise of cheap launch.
for some mission NASA use Titan IIIE in 1970s (a IIIC with Centaur stage).

 

[Byeman]

Gentlemen

Thank you for the useful and comprehensive info.

Looks as if there was not much practical alternative to the Shuttle programme, given the military requirements of the time.
Could the Saturn V (like Energia?) have been used for some of the Shuttle work, rather like the Titans. Or were the Titans a better bet?

Other than ISS, there was no need for Saturn V capabilities, especially for the military.