Sinking of the Cheonan by N. Korea

[AeroFranz]

I am not very knowledgeable of naval systems, but the recent sinking of the Cheonan, presumably by a N. Korean sub-fired torpedo sparked my curiosity. I am assuming that there is no way of masking the signature of a torpedo strike on a ship (the S.Korean seem 100% sure about it), so why do it if you can't leave reasonable doubt about Pyongyang's responsibility? a provocation? what does N.Korea have to gain from this?

is it just a case of creating a distraction from the poor state of their economy and reinforce the central role of Kim?

Any comment is welcome

 

[quellish]

I am not very knowledgeable of naval systems, but the recent sinking of the Cheonan, presumably by a N. Korean sub-fired torpedo sparked my curiosity. I am assuming that there is no way of masking the signature of a torpedo strike on a ship (the S.Korean seem 100% sure about it), so why do it if you can't leave reasonable doubt about Pyongyang's responsibility? a provocation? what does N.Korea have to gain from this?

is it just a case of creating a distraction from the poor state of their economy and reinforce the central role of Kim?

Any comment is welcome

Well, that's like asking what NK has to gain from, say, attacking US servicemen with axes.
Don't assume your adversary follows the same logic that you do.

 

[Firefly 2]

It's a tricky one for sure. This whole situation seems like something taken out of a Tom Clancy novel.

First and foremost: Reason? Why would NK attack an SK ship? A few possibilities come to mind.

1. Exposure. NK feels the need to be present front an center of the political stage again. There is no such thing as bad exposure, as they say in marketing.

2. Rogue elements withing the system. I feel that there was an imminent era of detente between the two Koreas. Rogue elements might conspire to undermine this.

3. A single rogue officer felt the need to put the " southern traitors" in place and willingly fired a torpedo. This will never be acknowledged by NK as it would reveal flaws in their political control system.

4. Accident. Always an option. A NK sub stalking an SK ship accidentally firing a homing torpedo. Stranger things have happened. NK will most likely never acknowledge this, as once again this would undermine the image of a perfect Socialist State they try to uphold... While they're not even socialists, but that is another discussion, not to be held on these fora.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

The RoK corvette was sunk in a contested area of waters between the DPRK coast and a RoK controlled island. Last year there was a naval clash there between surface units and the DPRK came off second best with a few of their boats shot to crap. It is assumed that this sinking was a revenge act for this battle. The timing of the attack could also have been a diversionary act for the DPRK special forces to launch another infiltration campaign.

But the DPRK's real power comes from being such a loose cannon and every now and then they need to scare the crap out of everyone by launching some attack. Otherwise they would lose their loose cannon status and just be considered another over armed, third world country run by evil pricks.

 

[saintkatanalegacy]

country with an ADD perhaps? ???

 

[AeroFranz]

Thanks for the comments, and to AG for the background info. I didn't know of last year's confrontation. Put in its context, it makes (a little) more sense.

 

[sferrin]

Apparently they found pieces of the torpedo's prop, complete with NK serials.

 

[Jemiba]

The Pohang-class is fitted for ASW as well and in those contested waters, a RoK
warship would be on constant alert, I think. So, wouldn't have the crew of the Cheonan
at least noticed the torpedo attack, even if it was too late to react ? And wouldn't then
the cause of the explosion have been named from the very first beginning by the survivors ?
Sea mines are said to be a threat in this area, too, and they wouldn't give a warning by
propulsion noise. But in the public opinion a hit by a sea mine may be a less flagrant agression,
than a hit by a torpedo.
Really not sure, that the claims can be taken for granted, whoever made them.

 

[Hammer Birchgrove]

I can't help thinking about a scenario in which this escalates into complete war, in which South Korea *has* to attack North Korea. I wonder how much South Korea can do on its own, and how help it needs from its allies (read: USA foremost). I also wonder what China's reaction world be to that. Obviously, USA - as well as China - is hardly welcoming a war (or campaign/police action) in South East Asia, even if USA *only* has to send B-2 Spirits and F-117 Nighthawks to create air superiority to South Korean tactical air units and ground troops. Then there's the mined areas of the DMZ to think about.

 

[Hammer Birchgrove]

Could the USA send a few battalions of USMC (or something in that effect) to S. Korea just to "scare back the senses" to the N. Korean "leadership", or would this just serve to further "provoke" N. Korea's Red Army? I re-call how UK sent Handley Page Victor bombers to patrol around Malaysia in order to make Indonesia not get more aggressive.

 

[Woody]

Apparently they found pieces of the torpedo's prop, complete with NK serials.

And 'they' would be that 'impartial' international investigating team?

I agree North Korea is as mad as a meat axe - doing things like abducting Japanese citizens off beaches etc. - and could well have carried out the attack. To be honest the Cheonan was a lot closer to North Korea than South, but if you wanted to frame them, isn't it the oldest trick in the book, to uses (or find later) one of their weapons?

The BBC says these torpedoes are sold as exports so anyone could have got hold of them.

And it's not North or South Korea that would benefit from a war but it would certainly benefit strategically one of the North's enemies - especially if that enemy was currently struggling to keep its bases in Japan. The fact that China may be left to pick up the bill, have it's trade routes closed and may even end up as allies is just gravy. Hillary was way too quick to blame the North long before any investigation was done.

In any strategy simulation I've ever played it's always better to get someone else to attack your enemy first especially if you come away with your hands apparently clean.

This is just a suggestion but a possibility none the less and one you won't hear discussed in the coordinated international press. Remember the USS Maddox incident.

Cheers, Woody

 

[flateric]

my everyday's reading after morning coffee at the office
http://www.naenara.kp/

 

[quellish]

Could the USA send a few battalions of USMC (or something in that effect) to S. Korea just to "scare back the senses" to the N. Korean "leadership", or would this just serve to further "provoke" N. Korea's Red Army? I re-call how UK sent Handley Page Victor bombers to patrol around Malaysia in order to make Indonesia not get more aggressive.

The US already has 28,500 people stationed in South Korea, battalions of Marines are not going to actually scare the NKs that much.

It's important to remember that at any time, NK can obliterate Seoul in a heartbeat. The South Korean capital is within artillery range of the North, and NK has thousands of tubes along the DMZ aimed at it. This is why one of the smartest things the US military has done in recent history was to pull much of the US forces back to the south end of the peninsula, out of artillery range. THAT scared the NKs more than anything else, as it significantly altered the balance of power in the region.

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5

 

[AeroFranz]

@ Hammer B.
The F-117 are gone, unless they saved one for sentimental reasons...
@ Woody
IIRC, the south Koreans waited (sensibly) for a couple of days before accusing the North. I suspect they must have had a pretty good idea from the very beginning though, possibly other assets picking up noise signatures, like the torpedo itself or the inevitable sprint that would precede the torpedo impact (assuming they heard anything at all)

 

[Woody]

@ Woody
IIRC, the south Koreans waited (sensibly) for a couple of days before accusing the North.

I didn't mention the South Korean's response. ???

If you look at published news historically you can see it for the propaganda it was. It's only at the time that people are so willing to believe what they read.

February 15, 1898: "Remember the Maine." Mysterious explosion rocks the battleship MAINE in Havana Harbor, Cuba. 266 men were killed. Initally it was believed a torpedo or mine caused the explosion. On April 25, 1898 the US declared war on Spain. A 1976 investigation found that the Maine was sunk due to a self-inflicted blast, probably as a result of coal bunker fire on board.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/sardi1.html

Here's what the North Koreans have to say about it (thanks Flateric):-

http://www.naenara.kp/en/news/news_view.php?0+24581

Cheers, Woody

 

[Hammer Birchgrove]

Could the USA send a few battalions of USMC (or something in that effect) to S. Korea just to "scare back the senses" to the N. Korean "leadership", or would this just serve to further "provoke" N. Korea's Red Army? I re-call how UK sent Handley Page Victor bombers to patrol around Malaysia in order to make Indonesia not get more aggressive.

The US already has 28,500 people stationed in South Korea, battalions of Marines are not going to actually scare the NKs that much.

It's important to remember that at any time, NK can obliterate Seoul in a heartbeat. The South Korean capital is within artillery range of the North, and NK has thousands of tubes along the DMZ aimed at it. This is why one of the smartest things the US military has done in recent history was to pull much of the US forces back to the south end of the peninsula, out of artillery range. THAT scared the NKs more than anything else, as it significantly altered the balance of power in the region.

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-the-day-how-north-korea-could-destroy-seoul-in-two-hours-2010-5

Oh dear. So it's First Strike or nothing then?

 

[m1lkman]

Actually I think very little will come about...

North Korea is a very, very poor country. And contrary to popular belief there’s even less reality to a nuclear threat than Irak posed at the beginning of the first gulf war – such a program is just too expensive.

In dire times the country becomes a little ‘provocative’, bargaining for (and mostly getting) food, medicine or other primary resources that have been restricted by the sanctions.

It’s disheartening to see how this half of this peninsula is being repressed by it’s leadership and almost starved by famine. A stark contrast to success that South Korea has achieved over the last few decades. My hope is that a ’1989 moment’ will come soon for North Korea’s suffering people.

 

[Hammer Birchgrove]

Actually I think very little will come about...

North Korea is a very, very poor country. And contrary to popular belief there’s even less reality to a nuclear threat than Irak posed at the beginning of the first gulf war – such a program is just too expensive.

In dire times the country becomes a little ‘provocative’, bargaining for (and mostly getting) food, medicine or other primary resources that have been restricted by the sanctions.

It’s disheartening to see how this half of this peninsula is being repressed by it’s leadership and almost starved by famine. A stark contrast to success that South Korea has achieved over the last few decades. My hope is that a ’1989 moment’ will come soon for North Korea’s suffering people.

Sadly, IMO Kim Jong-il has to die first and be replaced by a Gorbachev or Khrushchev type of leader. Unfortunately, communist dictators has to date a tendency to live seemingly forever, thanks to the wonders of modern medical science.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Some of the North's submarine bases: http://cryptome.org/2013-info/02/dprk-subs/dprk-subs.htm

 

[JFC Fuller]

Some of the North's submarine bases: http://cryptome.org/2013-info/02/dprk-subs/dprk-subs.htm

There was a for a while an old Soviet Kirvak, completely stripped, tied up at Nampo but it vanished sometime in 2008 and I have not been able to find it since. Could have been scrapped.

 

[Eagle2009]

JFC Fuller,

Not likely. There is no logical reason for North Korea to purchase an old Krivak class frigate just for scrap, especially when "officially" there is no record of it being sold to North Korea or anyone else for that matter. It has all the hallmarks of a very purposeful purchase.

Also, if you study all the GE images of the Krivak, you can see that they have actually batched up the holes in the deck (where the armaments once were) and sealed the deck of the ship. It looks more like the North has plans to completely refit the vessel. There have actually been a rather interesting series of naval developments in North Korea the last few years that hasn't been talked about much on the net and the Krivak is just one of them.