Predicting the next Battlefield...

uk 75

ACCESS: Top Secret
Senior Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2006
Messages
3,881
Reaction score
2,998
I dont expect this topic to survive for long. But wait a minute. So many discussions of new weapons systems whether naval, air or land here have touched on this vital question- where will the battlefield be?
Of course I am conditioned by the Cold War. The West prepared for a slugfest with the Soviet Union focussed on the North Atlantic and West Germany. The UK especially geared its forces for these.
The actual battlefields of the era ranged from the inhospitable terrain of Korea to the jungles of Vietnam. The British Army was in action every year save 1968. Yet it didnt fire a shot in anger in West Germany.
So as we start to focus on the Baltic States and the South China Sea, Ukraine or Taiwan as possible conflict zones, it might be worth remembering that plans do not get matched by reality..
Oh and to give another reason for binning this thread there are always the long established battlefields
 

tequilashooter

ACCESS: Top Secret
Joined
Jan 2, 2021
Messages
701
Reaction score
834
Next battlefield, hmmm.

Syria not a hotspot like it use to be, no oil pipeline hence no way to screw Russia's gas line deals to Europe.

Venezuela considered a good place to take over with huge oil reserve that did not go well when Russia got involved.

Russia is going to get its Nord Stream 2 complete.

Trump administration at a last ditch effort considered arctic drilling, Biden administration pulled out because of pollution and all that jazz. Thought the arctic was going to be a future warzone.

No warzone just countries wanting to increase their chances of imploding from the inside, makes me wonder if the pentagon is being funded by the Chinese and Russians while we pretend to paint them as enemies. Baltic states, Ukraine or Taiwan will be considered conflict zones depending how fast a superpower wants to poison itself. Russia and China are in no rush.
 

Justo Miranda

ACCESS: Above Top Secret
Senior Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2007
Messages
5,426
Reaction score
4,921
Website
www.amazon.com
In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
 

Zoo Tycoon

ACCESS: Top Secret
Senior Member
Joined
May 27, 2008
Messages
701
Reaction score
1,146
Copper, Lithium, and Cobalt are becoming highly sought after to power the new green world. One aspect that’s attractive in the green revolution, but not talked about, is the move away from a dependency on oil producing nations and their mucky politics.

However the new technology that powers this green world need very specific minerals which are only found in isolated places and generally the owners don’t have much of a military. So what will happen is the old bad guys, will be replaced by the new bad guys, all spurred on by this world of new opportunities.

What could possibly go wrong?
 

Grey Havoc

ACCESS: USAP
Senior Member
Joined
Oct 9, 2009
Messages
17,249
Reaction score
6,886
I rather suspect that the Antarctic treaty won't last anywhere near another ten years. I would also say that the Arctic will become a major battleground as well. There will be a lot more maritime confrontations, and not just in the South China Sea & approaches. Deep Sea mining is likely to finally take off for one thing.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Grey Havoc

ACCESS: USAP
Senior Member
Joined
Oct 9, 2009
Messages
17,249
Reaction score
6,886
Further on the issue of resource wars, water wars are coming to the fore at the moment. For instance, via the Geopolitics reddit:

Follow up story today:


The situation regarding the Nile isn't looking too good at the moment either.
 

riggerrob

I really should change my personal text
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
Messages
1,821
Reaction score
1,263
Russia is massing troops along its border with Ukraine. We suspect that Russia is trying to gain control of a - 400 kilometer long - canal that supplies water from Dnipro River (in Ukraine) to the Crimean Penninsula. Crimea has suffered water shortages ever since the Ukraine blocked the canal in the aftermath of Russia invading Crimea.
 

Fluff

ACCESS: Top Secret
Joined
Sep 9, 2019
Messages
830
Reaction score
732
In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
thats not a bad idea, nor a bad prediction, for sure the government would be happy to have or create an external threat.

I mean imagine if Covid had started in say usa, and spead to china somehow...
 

Grey Havoc

ACCESS: USAP
Senior Member
Joined
Oct 9, 2009
Messages
17,249
Reaction score
6,886
The russian troop movements may also additionally be related to this report:
https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/n30qtf View: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/n30qtf/russias_soft_takeover_of_belarus_completes/

EDIT: Link from the reddit post seems to have glitched, here is a revised link;
 

Deltafan

ACCESS: Top Secret
Joined
May 8, 2006
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
992
In my opinion, the South China Sea will be the scene of another conflict, sooner or later...



And in the area, there are also Taiwan and the Sankaku Islands...

 
Last edited:

jsport

what do you know about surfing Major? you're from-
Joined
Jul 27, 2011
Messages
3,992
Reaction score
1,624

Putin’s actions have changed the information environment in the West. The Western policy discussion during this crisis focused initially on the fear of a Russian invasion and debates about the seriousness of that threat. The December 7 conversation between Putin and President Joe Biden is changing the discourse to a focus on the processes being established to de-escalate the crisis. Biden has threatened very tough economic responses to a Russian invasion but also ruled out unilateral US military operations to defend Ukraine. He has hinted that the diplomatic de-escalation process might make further concessions to Russia as part of an effort to avoid war but also rejected conceding the specific demands Putin has so far made.

Putin has responded by welcoming the diplomatic process, continuing the military buildup, and escalating some of his rhetoric that could set conditions for at least limited military actions in occupied Ukraine as well as in Belarus. The coming weeks and months will likely see oscillations in the policy discourse between a focus on the de-escalation negotiations and Putin’s military activities and escalatory rhetoric outside that process. He is also setting conditions for a future in which he has moved forces into Belarus and overtly into occupied Donbas but has not invaded unoccupied Ukraine, and in which the West is so relieved by the latter that it simply accepts the former.

Putin has thus already achieved important objectives as a result of the buildup. He has redirected the Western policy discourse about Russia and Ukraine away from issues such as the Nordstream 2 pipeline, Russia’s continued occupation of Donbas and illegal annexation of Donbas, and preparations to move Russian ground forces permanently into Belarus and/or overtly into occupied Donbas. As a result of Putin’s actions, the United States and NATO have made clear that they will not defend Ukraine by force. Putin has enmeshed the United States in a new diplomatic process.

The West will likely make additional concessions over the course of the next two months as part of the diplomatic effort to de-escalate. Putin’s “concession” may be nothing more than not invading Ukraine. If he never intended to invade Ukraine, he will have received quite a lot while giving up almost nothing.

If the West overestimates Putin’s intent to invade, it will underestimate its own bargaining position and make more concessions than it should. The West’s focus on the threat of invasion could cause Western leaders to miss important inflections in the Kremlin’s actual strategy and the progress Putin makes toward achieving his aims. In the worst-case version of this scenario, the West will be congratulating itself for having avoided a Russian invasion Putin never meant to launch while Putin quietly celebrates an important non-military victory that the West does not even recognize.

The West should not allow the need to deter invasion to block consideration of alternative approaches Putin may be pursuing. Rather, it must develop and execute responses to the concealed as well as overt dangers. It must recognize that certain responses to the overt threat could badly undermine necessary responses to the concealed ones. This report and those that will follow it in this series examine this alternative “concealed” framework and the implications for US and NATO policy if Putin has chosen to pursue it.
 

Desertfox

ACCESS: Secret
Joined
Feb 26, 2007
Messages
291
Reaction score
151
Chinese history shows a repeating pattern of economic inequality between the coastal areas and the interior leading to civil war, that inequality is once again on the rise meaning China is due for another civil war in the near future.

Climate change will also lead to new avenuse for conflict as countries become affected by droughts or rising sea levels, leaidng to conflicts we don't see at this time.
 

muttly

ACCESS: Secret
Joined
Jun 15, 2020
Messages
216
Reaction score
113
The next battlefield will be in cyberspace. Systems will be destroyed or took
over. Both military and critical for every day life systems will be affected. Having
the affect of bringing a nation down without firing a shot. Plus the being able to
hide who is responsible.
 

riggerrob

I really should change my personal text
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
Messages
1,821
Reaction score
1,263
The next battlefield will be in cyberspace. Systems will be destroyed or took
over. Both military and critical for every day life systems will be affected. Having
the affect of bringing a nation down without firing a shot. Plus the being able to
hide who is responsible.
Good point about messing with cyberspace.
If you confuse the computers that drive logistics to grocery stores, then millions of Americans will be starving after a week or three.
 

zen

ACCESS: Top Secret
Senior Member
Joined
Jul 15, 2007
Messages
2,913
Reaction score
1,664
Ukraine is smoke and mirrors.
The real game is Belarus.

And this is very dadangerous. Sarajevo levels of risk here.
 

royabulgaf

ACCESS: Top Secret
Joined
Dec 29, 2008
Messages
578
Reaction score
166
In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
My guess is that such an implosion would lead to secessionist revolts in peripheral areas. I can see some generals sent in to keep order decide to strike out on their own.
 

royabulgaf

ACCESS: Top Secret
Joined
Dec 29, 2008
Messages
578
Reaction score
166
In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
My guess is that such an implosion would lead to secessionist revolts in peripheral areas. I can see some generals sent in to keep order decide to strike out on their own.
 

Similar threads

Top