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Predicting the next Battlefield...

uk 75

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I dont expect this topic to survive for long. But wait a minute. So many discussions of new weapons systems whether naval, air or land here have touched on this vital question- where will the battlefield be?
Of course I am conditioned by the Cold War. The West prepared for a slugfest with the Soviet Union focussed on the North Atlantic and West Germany. The UK especially geared its forces for these.
The actual battlefields of the era ranged from the inhospitable terrain of Korea to the jungles of Vietnam. The British Army was in action every year save 1968. Yet it didnt fire a shot in anger in West Germany.
So as we start to focus on the Baltic States and the South China Sea, Ukraine or Taiwan as possible conflict zones, it might be worth remembering that plans do not get matched by reality..
Oh and to give another reason for binning this thread there are always the long established battlefields
 

tequilashooter

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Next battlefield, hmmm.

Syria not a hotspot like it use to be, no oil pipeline hence no way to screw Russia's gas line deals to Europe.

Venezuela considered a good place to take over with huge oil reserve that did not go well when Russia got involved.

Russia is going to get its Nord Stream 2 complete.

Trump administration at a last ditch effort considered arctic drilling, Biden administration pulled out because of pollution and all that jazz. Thought the arctic was going to be a future warzone.

No warzone just countries wanting to increase their chances of imploding from the inside, makes me wonder if the pentagon is being funded by the Chinese and Russians while we pretend to paint them as enemies. Baltic states, Ukraine or Taiwan will be considered conflict zones depending how fast a superpower wants to poison itself. Russia and China are in no rush.
 

Justo Miranda

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In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
 

Zoo Tycoon

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Copper, Lithium, and Cobalt are becoming highly sought after to power the new green world. One aspect that’s attractive in the green revolution, but not talked about, is the move away from a dependency on oil producing nations and their mucky politics.

However the new technology that powers this green world need very specific minerals which are only found in isolated places and generally the owners don’t have much of a military. So what will happen is the old bad guys, will be replaced by the new bad guys, all spurred on by this world of new opportunities.

What could possibly go wrong?
 

Grey Havoc

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I rather suspect that the Antarctic treaty won't last anywhere near another ten years. I would also say that the Arctic will become a major battleground as well. There will be a lot more maritime confrontations, and not just in the South China Sea & approaches. Deep Sea mining is likely to finally take off for one thing.
 
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Grey Havoc

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Further on the issue of resource wars, water wars are coming to the fore at the moment. For instance, via the Geopolitics reddit:

Follow up story today:


The situation regarding the Nile isn't looking too good at the moment either.
 

riggerrob

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Russia is massing troops along its border with Ukraine. We suspect that Russia is trying to gain control of a - 400 kilometer long - canal that supplies water from Dnipro River (in Ukraine) to the Crimean Penninsula. Crimea has suffered water shortages ever since the Ukraine blocked the canal in the aftermath of Russia invading Crimea.
 

Fluff

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In my view, the worst-case scenario would be an implosion of the Chinese economy that would force its rulers to do something drastic to bring the situation back, something like the Falklands invasion, to divert international attention from serious domestic problems. The trigger could be the lack of demand for its exports from the virus, the huge economic differences between coastal areas and the interior of the country, or a particularly aggressive pandemic mutation that was interpreted as an external attack.
thats not a bad idea, nor a bad prediction, for sure the government would be happy to have or create an external threat.

I mean imagine if Covid had started in say usa, and spead to china somehow...
 

Grey Havoc

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The russian troop movements may also additionally be related to this report:
https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/n30qtf View: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/n30qtf/russias_soft_takeover_of_belarus_completes/

EDIT: Link from the reddit post seems to have glitched, here is a revised link;
 

Deltafan

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In my opinion, the South China Sea will be the scene of another conflict, sooner or later...



And in the area, there are also Taiwan and the Sankaku Islands...

 
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