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Impact of COVID crisis on the future of specific civil types

kaiserd

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Created this thread to bring together news reports on the impact of the COVID crisis on different specific civil aircraft (likely many early retirements and exits for a number of types).
 

GTX

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I expect the future airline market is going to be centred more around smaller, more efficient types such as 787 and A350 for long haul and 737Max (despite its issues) and A320 series and others for domestic. Less people will be flying full stop plus airlines will want more efficient types to reduce costs wherever possible.
 

Archibald

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Any airliner with more than two engine is dead, dead, dead. A340, 340-500/600, 380, 747... they are finished.
 

Hobbes

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I expect the future airline market is going to be centred more around smaller, more efficient types such as 787 and A350 for long haul and 737Max (despite its issues) and A320 series and others for domestic.

Sure, but that development has been underway for a while now. By the time of the A380's introduction the writing was on the wall. The covid crisis is just speeding up this development, with airlines having to downsize and getting rid of their most expensive-to-run inventory first.
 

Foo Fighter

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I wonder how many of those lumbering beasts will be scrapped and how many repurposed, military personnel transport perhaps.

Just thinking that some airframes will have quite a lot of hours left.
 

GTX

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I expect the future airline market is going to be centred more around smaller, more efficient types such as 787 and A350 for long haul and 737Max (despite its issues) and A320 series and others for domestic.

Sure, but that development has been underway for a while now. By the time of the A380's introduction the writing was on the wall. The covid crisis is just speeding up this development, with airlines having to downsize and getting rid of their most expensive-to-run inventory first.

True the writing has been on the wall for ages (twin engine efficient options at least). The trend towards smaller will be accelerated by the current situation though.
 

GTX

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I wonder how many of those lumbering beasts will be scrapped and how many repurposed, military personnel transport perhaps.

Just thinking that some airframes will have quite a lot of hours left.


Not sure how many will become military, if any. I suspect more than a few might be turned into freighters though.
 

riggerrob

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I suspect that wide-body airliners will stay in service. The wide-bodies and dual isles allow passengers to sit farther apart. With more vacant seats, prices will rise.
Fewer hub and spoke routes will minimize chances of contamination in cities you never wanted to visit in the first place.
In service airliners will get cabin ventilation systems up graded, with fancier filters. Cabin air will also be replaced more quickly and stale air dumped overboard.
 

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I wonder how many of those lumbering beasts will be scrapped and how many repurposed, military personnel transport perhaps.

Just thinking that some airframes will have quite a lot of hours left.


Not sure how many will become military, if any. I suspect more than a few might be turned into freighters though.
Agree, so we could see older freighters retired early, if cleaner aircraft are available for conversion.

Military might pick up a few, again to retire old aircraft, and help the industry, but its a drop in the ocean.

As to cruises, no thanks, 3 shifts for each meal, no way can they maintain hygiene, already cruises had viruses braking out, before COVID.

My forecast: Short haul will reduce, as less business people travel, holiday short haul will survive, long haul will reduce. ~Maybe freight will go up a little.
 

starviking

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This really needs expaning upon:

"The experiment lasted about five years. In 2001, UPS decided to end the passenger flights. While the operation was profitable, officials said, the flights made less money than flying freight. Additionally, the frequent swapping of interiors added to the planes’ maintenance costs."

Were there hidden costs that actually negated the profits of the operation, or was it just one of those management 'this is not what we do' decisions? After all, the flights were set up because freight was not busy at the weekends - so making less money than a freight flight is a moot point.
 

TomcatViP

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First thought: it pushes maintenance days outside of weekends eating away monthly profits.
Explanation: chartering a passenger flight involves taking reservations on the long lead. Hence planes devoted to carrying passengers during the w.e have to have their maintenance scheduled on a priority list, trimming an agile fight schedule that is central to freight profitability.

Hence, turning your cargo fleet into a weekend airline revolves to shrinking down your effective fleet size, what seldomly lead to an increase in profits.
 

Grey Havoc

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And so it begins...

Stuff like this though understandable still seems premature to me. It’s not like we have all the tools yet to keep it strongly under control or know enough about it to decide how much it may mutate further.
 

edwest

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The airlines want profits, not outside opinions. And in the US, more people are flying. No speculation on their part.
 

TomcatViP

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One robot can disinfect a single-aisled plane in 13 minutes, start to finish, though larger planes take longer. Dnata executives hope airplane makers will sign off on the robots -- Elmiger estimates they'll sell for $15,930 or so -- as governments require new measures to ensure air travelers don't get sick.

Not too bad. It won't certainly reach cavities and non exposed surfaces like lower seat etc... But it's seems like it can provide a great boost in airplane cleaning.
 

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