If Kennedy Lived...Implications for the Space Program

[Dynoman]

If John F. Kennedy had survived the attempt on his life in Dallas on November 22, 1963, what would have been the implications to the US Space Program and the US manned lunar landing. Also your thoughts on Civil Rights, Vietnam, and the future of the country.

There are many books on alternate JFK histories, but "If Kennedy Lived" by Jeff Greenfield, poses some interesting ideas.

One notion is that Kennedy had planned to visit the USSR if elected for a second term. His plan to begin a negotiation with the Soviets on a limited test ban treaty for nuclear weapons, and an early proposal to launch a joint mission to the moon would have changed the course of the US program.

 

[Dynoman]

Article and video of Kennedys cursory proposal for a joint mission from the UN.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-forgotten-jfk-proposal-a-joint-u-s-soviet-moon-landing-video/

 

[Dynoman]

Kennedy's National Security Memo to NASA regarding cooperation with the USSR on possible lunar landing.

 

[Rhinocrates]

An interesting fictional spin is Stephen Baxter's novel, Voyage. In his scenario, Kennedy is wounded and Jackie is killed in Dallas, he's invalided out of the presidency, but exists as an inspiration so that the moon landings occur pretty much as we know and the real turning point is when Nixon chooses between the Shuttle and Mars. In this timeline, he looks for something that'll put his name in the history books the same way as Kennedy's and he chooses Mars. Baxter, a mathematician and engineer before he turned to writing, takes meticulous delight in constructing his scenario as he plays out the politics and engineering involved. Andrew Chaikin's book is a major source, but he did extensive research and personal interviews with astronauts as part of the process of writing. I highly recommend it.

 

[Dynoman]

Rhinocrates, I've not seen that one. Its interesting to look at Nixon's decisions on commiting to a low-Earth orbit Shuttle/Space Station program as opposed to a more direct develpoment program for going to Mars. However, I think the 'stepping stone' approach to Mars, i.e. Space Station, developing long-exposure to the space environment, and vehicle technology, required an interim program before going to Mars.

Dwayne Day, wrote a very good article on 'what if' Kennedy had lived.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/735/1

 

[Rhinocrates]

Thanks for the link.

Indeed, in Voyage there is an expanded space station programme with a Skylab spinoff, a long-stay orbiting Moonlab, involved in a parallel to the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program. The unmanned program is drastically cut - no Voyager or Viking, a reduced Mariner. That consequence is the most melancholy aspect of the book's meditation on discovery - Jupiter, Saturn and the rest are still just distant points of light as the Ares program consumes NASA, rather as the Shuttle and ISS have been accused of doing - or Webb, or any mega-project.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyage_(novel)


http://www.academia.edu/4037427/It_Really_Would_Have_Been_Like_This_Voyage_by_Stephen_Baxter


Baxter's own website - he's a very respected hard sf writer and his past collaborators have been as diverse as Terry Pratchett and Arthur C Clarke:


http://www.stephen-baxter.com/books.html

 

[Steve Pace]

If John F. Kennedy had survived the attempt on his life in Dallas on November 22, 1963, what would have been the implications to the US Space Program and the US manned lunar landing. Also your thoughts on Civil Rights, Vietnam, and the future of the country.

There are many books on alternate JFK histories, but "If Kennedy Lived" by Jeff Greenfield, poses some interesting ideas.

One notion is that Kennedy had planned to visit the USSR if elected for a second term. His plan to begin a negotiation with the Soviets on a limited test ban treaty for nuclear weapons, and an early proposal to launch a joint mission to the moon would have changed the course of the US program.

In the first place, he would have seen his dream of man going to the Moon, walking on the Moon, and safely returning to the Earth from the Moon. Not once but several times. -SP

 

[Orionblamblam]

An important possibility if Kennedy had lived: Johnsons political power would of course have been sidelined, and thus *perhaps* the "Great Society" programs which have grown to consume a monstrous portion of the federal budget might not have come to pass. Coupled with *perhaps* bailing out of Viet Nam by the mid 60's, these two might have left NASA with somewhere closer to the 4% peak spending.

When Nixon wins the White House in 1968, he does what the Real World Nixon does... continue the prior administrations Apollo program. Given that Johnson had killed Apollo/Saturn in 1968, in the Kennedy-lived timeline, Apollo/Saturn might still be on the production line when Nixon takes over in early 1969, and thus Apollo keeps cranking along. The Apollo program probably wouldn't have sped up any, but it would have lasted longer. Apollo 11 in '69, Apollo 25 and lunar "camps" in 1975, partially reusable Saturns by '76, permanent bases in '78, a decent space station by '81.

 

[Hobbes]

An interesting fictional spin is Stephen Baxter's novel, Voyage. In his scenario, Kennedy is wounded and Jackie is killed in Dallas, he's invalided out of the presidency, but exists as an inspiration so that the moon landings occur pretty much as we know and the real turning point is when Nixon chooses between the Shuttle and Mars. In this timeline, he looks for something that'll put his name in the history books the same way as Kennedy's and he chooses Mars. Baxter, a mathematician and engineer before he turned to writing, takes meticulous delight in constructing his scenario as he plays out the politics and engineering involved. Andrew Chaikin's book is a major source, but he did extensive research and personal interviews with astronauts as part of the process of writing. I highly recommend it.

If you're interested in politics, Voyage is recommendable. If you want to read about a mission to Mars, Voyage disappoints.

 

[Rhinocrates]

Yes, the actual flight is pretty secondary, but I guess the intersection of politics and engineering is what fascinated me. It was really a story about engineers wrestling with the other "art of the attainable" - I found the section on designing and building the MEM most gripping.

 

[Dynoman]

Space Daily states that the Russians were prepared to accept Kennedy's offer for a joint program to the moon.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/russia-97h.html

Considering the proposal was floated in 1963, approximately 6 months before the first Gemini would fly, what composition of vehicles or mission architecture do you think would have been used to fly a joint American/Soviet mission to the moon, if the effort was passed in the US and USSR, and geopolitical impasses (i.e. Vietnam, Czechoslovakia, etc.) didn't slow the progam to a grinding halt. (Considering each nation's technological strengths and weaknesses.)

 

[Riverghost]

Voyage is a very good book, quite a disappointing read i found, in that it was so very possible , if i remember . His short story Prospero One is a similar style, but following the brits.

I then read Titan, which seemed to dispense with all the reality of the Voyage book, jury-rigging up Shuttle components for a several year manned trip to Titan..... think it was more of a creative outpouring rather than a realistic 'what if'.

 

[Dynoman]

Riverghost, I haven't read those, but a neat story made into a 1968 film called 'Countdown' with James Caan, looked at what if the US and the USSR competed all the way to the moon, with the USSR beating the US there.

 

[Dynoman]

The trailer can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duc9W9Bsffo

 

[Michel Van]

the Novels "Voyage" and "Titan" are from Stephen Baxter and are must read

Countdown is based on Novel "The Pilgrim Project" by Hank Searls

Back to topic
How JFK react and keep Apollo life depends on Soviet responds
if runs like Original N1 and L3-Complex no soviet manned moon landing.
Then is the Apollo program dead, they fly several mission until Saturn V are out of stock and that's It.
what happen next is for JFK successor to White House.

if Soviet keep up and land Cosmonaut on Moon, Kennedy could keep the space program running and try to top it either Moon base or go to Mars.

 

[Dynoman]

Some folks from Republic Aviation came up with a joint plan at the time as illustrated below.

 

[Dynoman]

Robert Gilruth, of NASA Manned Spaceflight once said:

"Speaking before the National Rocket Club three days before the Kennedy address to the U.N., Gilruth had said that he 'would welcome the opportunity to go behind the scenes in the Soviet Union and see what they're doing, what they have learned.' But then he added that a joint space flight involving the melding of equipment would pose difficulties."
"I tremble at the thought of the integration problems." Gilruth emphasized that he was speaking as a working engineer and not as "an international politician." He said that American space engineers had enough difficulties mating the hundreds of electrical, mechanical, and pyrotechnic connections between American launch vehicles and spacecraft. Noting "how difficult these integration problems are" from a technical standpoint within a single agency, he said that the engineering problems inherent in combining the hardware of two nations would be "hard to do in a practical sort of way." At the 20 September MSC news conference, he added that such problems "are very difficult even when [the hardware components] are built by American contractors."- NASA SP-4209

 

[carmelo]

Why should the United States and the Soviet Union, in preparing for such expeditions, become involved in immense duplications of research, construction, and expenditure? Surely we should explore whether the scientists and astronauts of our two countries—indeed of all the world—cannot work together in the conquest of space, sending someday in this decade to the moon not the representatives of a single nation, but the representatives of all of our countries.

I have read that the offer was revived by President Johnson (if i remember well in a speech in december 1963 or january 1964),but Russians said that wasere not interested.
Anyway i not believe that a joint mission was possible,
both technically and logistically (for exemple,who is the first man to walk on the moon,play it in a poker game?).
Most likely,at most, we would have a Russian LMP on Apollo 14 or 15.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

What if Nixon had won in 1960. Kennedy gets to live but isn't President. Nixon falls in love with Project Orion and Neil Armstrong gets to be the first human to walk on Mars in 1968 powered there and back by nuclear pulse propulsion ("Blamers"). Nixon stays true to the post war policy of keeping Communists out of economically crucial areas only and lets South Vietnam fall to the north in the mid 60s. America undergoes a second great economic growth period in the 1970s fueled by advanced technology, low taxation and the occupation of the Persian Gulf oil regions by President Lodge after the 1973 Oil Shock. The Soviets are unable to meet the required quality control for successful blamer flight and bankrupt their state 10 years early thanks to massive investment in Energia sized rockets in the 60s and 70s. Global communications undergo a renaissance in the 1980s thanks to the massive fleet of comsats placed in orbit by cheap and easy blamer powered commercial access, personal tele-computer systems ("Pertels") and the new global internetworking system ("Globint"). The Kennedy Brothers (JFK, RFK and TK) become a bit of a political side show more known for their increasing self indulgence, illegalities and stardom of the first ever reality program "Keeping up with the Kennedys" broadcast in the 1970s on NBC.

 

[Kiltonge]

both technically and logistically (for exemple,who is the first man to walk on the moon,play it in a poker game?).

Same way as it happened in real life, the guy with the biggest ego goes first Or officially because the pilot was jammed behind the LM hatch when it was opened...

I think many of the claims of technical difficulty are overstated. The main interfaces would have been:

1. Between the lander and the command / transit module
2. Environmental suport for the two different types of personal suits
3. Compatibility of communication and telemetry systems with the ground stations

I don't believe anyone was proposing that mixed-origin stages be used in the booster, for example.

 

[carmelo]

What if Nixon had won in 1960.

Apollo is a low earth orbit project.
Start in 1965,after Mercury ending.
Apollo is launched by Saturn 1 and in 1965-1966-1967 perform rendez vous with Agena target satellite,EVAs,long durations flights (untill 2 weeks in orbit),rendez vous with a satellite with EVA and
recovery of instrumentation.
In 1968 is launched the first space station,a Saturn 1B derived wet workshop.
In 1970 a crew of three astronauts orbiting around the moon.

 

[KJ_Lesnick]

Kennedy's National Security Memo to NASA regarding cooperation with the USSR on possible lunar landing.

This confirms my opinion that most likely the Cold War would have ended pretty quickly

 

[Dynoman]

KJ, I don't know if it would have ended the Cold War, but certainly would have helped to thaw it. Unfortunately, at the time of Kennedy's memo to the USSR, Khushchev believed his space program was far superior to the US's, so he would have rejected any cooperation, according to Roald Sagdeev, former head of the Russian Space Research Institute.

Later, cooperation in manned US and USSR space programs occurred through the exchanges of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR), which was established in 1958. The US and USSR were both represented in COSPAR and each held a vice presidential position on the committee. The USSR's committee representative was effectively a negotiator of the USSR's position on space matters who received direction from the Kremlin. Only after the USSR had lost the moon race and suffered several serious space disasters that the political will in the USSR was ripe for a joint space mission.

Interestingly enough, it was a movie that was a catalyst for the first joint space mission Apollo-Soyuz in 1975.

"In the early 1970s, the Nixon administration sought to reduce U.S.-Soviet tensions, and launched a major effort to reach a strategic arms limitation breakthrough, as well as new cooperation in space. In 1970, during a meeting with Keldysh, U.S. Academy of Sciences President Philip Handler mentioned an American movie starring Gregory Peck and Gene Hackman called Marooned, in which Soviet cosmonauts helped rescue three U.S. astronauts stranded in Earth orbit. Handler suggested the United States and U.S.S.R. develop a mutually com-patible docking system that would make possible such rescues, as well as non-emergency space dock-ings. This imaginary movie scenario touched a chord within space communities on both sides, which already had experienced emergency situations in real life. Talks led to the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project docking mission of 1975, which developed compatible rendezvous and docking systems still in use today, and the establishment of a few topical working groups in different space science and applications disciplines"

http://www.nasa.gov/50th/50th_magazine/coldWarCoOp.html (Quote from article)
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/pao/History/SP-4209/prolog.htm (additional background on Keldysh and involvement in joint collaboration)

If this is the case, we should make more movie's about cooperation in space!