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Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)

Desertfox

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FOBS was banned under SALT II but is not currently banned by New START, note Russia's constant talk about a "South pole" capability on their new Sarmat. FOBS is also not considered to fall under the Outer Space Treaty. Any "South pole" attack will suffer accuracy issues which can be solved via the use of GPS, this is not a FOBS-specific problem.

So Russia would be concerned about SLBMs but not by a FOBS attack on China? Do note that such an attack could very well be aimed at Russia, all the warheads have to do is keep going a bit more before deorbiting.

MM3 is more likely to be used if it is under threat. Since China can not threaten MM3 there would be less need to use it against China. You say there are fewer tubes on the subs but the subs carry more than twice as much warheads as the MM3 force, and China would not require the level of nuclear strike that Russia would.
 

Forest Green

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The R-36O already had to be withdrawn under The Outer Space Treaty because it counts as nukes in space, even pre-launch.
 

Desertfox

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The Outer Space Treaty entered into effect on October 1967, the R-36ORB entered service in November 1968 and was retired in January 1983, as part of SALT II which was signed in June 1979. The Outer Space Treaty does not forbid FOBS, it does however forbid MOBS (Multiple Orbital Bombardment System). Technically speaking any ICBM is a FOBS, since ballistic trajectories are "fractional" orbits.
 

sferrin

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I think the only way around the motor conundrum is to weight the ATK acquisition as null as far as this competion is concerned. Effectively, the only thing "Nothrop Grumman" about it's motor company acquisition is the sign on the front of the building, and it should be treated as such. NG should get no benefits in this competition from owning ATK. And also no, "winner take all" on the stages. IMO keeping Aerojet viable is VITAL.
 

marauder2048

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FOBS was banned under SALT II but is not currently banned by New START, note Russia's constant talk about a "South pole" capability on their new Sarmat. FOBS is also not considered to fall under the Outer Space Treaty. Any "South pole" attack will suffer accuracy issues which can be solved via the use of GPS, this is not a FOBS-specific problem.
The US has consistently interpreted FOBS of the actual LEO type as being banned by the Outer Space Treaty.
The accuracy issues tend to be worse for the full orbit types which has merit on the LUA-without-apocalypse front.

So Russia would be concerned about SLBMs but not by a FOBS attack on China?
The Russians don't yet have a satellite constellation that can consistently detect random ocean launches, their
radar coverage of the Pacific is worse, their ASW isn't great, the SLBMs have actual short time of flight capability
and the entire US SLBM warhead inventory will be capable of threatening their mobile/fixed arsenal.

A CONUS based launch is well within their ability to consistently detect and with their southern radar coverage
track as well.

Do note that such an attack could very well be aimed at Russia, all the warheads have to do is keep going a bit more before deorbiting.
The point is that it won't blindside them and doesn't attempt to exploit gaps in their early warning.

And per your own argument, their are fewer weapons required to attack China than Russia so in combination
with the above, a China-sized attack is much less likely to be construed as an attack on Russia.

MM3 is more likely to be used if it is under threat. Since China can not threaten MM3 there would be less need to use it against China.
Only a small portion of the US ICBM force was ever LUA.
China "today" cannot threaten MMIII but GBSD is supposed to be a 50 year system.


You say there are fewer tubes on the subs but the subs carry more than twice as much warheads as the MM3 force
And fewer subs.

And world + dog regards them as the first strike option.
Not what you want to be slinging around in a bad neighborhood if you don't have to.
 

sferrin

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While I'll agree mobile launchers are more survivable they are also more expensive and have logistical and security issues. A tractor-trailer in the highway can easily disappear but people will hate nuclear weapons randomly driving around the highways. That's why we went with Midgetman's off-road concept in the first place.
I wouldn't want ICBMs cruising the highways mostly from a security standpoint. I doubt many would be concerned about it provided the media didn't make an issue of it. There are nuclear storage facilities all over the place and most people don't bat an eye. But why take the chance when we don't have to? I would think silos, with terminal defenses, and launch on verification would do the trick. One could either have one ABM and radar per silo, like the LoADS concept, or defend a group. I wouldn't have dozens of ABMs for each silo, nor would I want something more than terminal defense. The idea is to deter attack (increase uncertainty) rather than defeat an attack.

I loved Midgetman, but not as the ONLY ICBM. Midgetman with Peackeeper would have been perfect.
 

dan_inbox

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Russia has radars looking south (concerned with China and to a lesser extend Pakistan and Israel).
Does that mean "Russia is to some extent concerned about a nuke attack from Israel"? Hrmm. In what kind of scenario, with what goals?

And Russia would be more concerned about a nuke attack from Israel than, say, from Iran and its godcrazy proxies?

Even with Putin's special outlook on the world, isn't it a stretch?
 

Forest Green

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The Outer Space Treaty entered into effect on October 1967, the R-36ORB entered service in November 1968 and was retired in January 1983, as part of SALT II which was signed in June 1979. The Outer Space Treaty does not forbid FOBS, it does however forbid MOBS (Multiple Orbital Bombardment System). Technically speaking any ICBM is a FOBS, since ballistic trajectories are "fractional" orbits.
As I understood it, FOBS only applied to weapons capable of putting warheads into orbit, the warheads would travel a fraction of a fixed altitude orbit en route to target. An ICBM is not FOBS because it uses a ballistic arc, not a fraction of a fixed altitude orbit. It was during SALT II talks that they agreed it was prohibited under The Outer Space Treaty.
 

Desertfox

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Article VII
2. The Parties agree that:
Second Agreed Statement.
Second Common Understanding. Of the eighteen launchers of fractional orbital missiles at the test range where ICBMs are tested in the area of Tyura-Tam, twelve launchers shall be dismantled or destroyed and six launchers may be converted to launchers for testing missiles undergoing modernization.
SALT II did not mention the Outer Space Treaty, what it did was specifically call for the R-36ORB to be eliminated.

Yes FOBS applies only to warheads that are placed into a circular orbit and then de-orbited over the target. But semantically speaking ballistic trajectories are fractional orbits that just happen to intersect the ground. That said the Soviets argued that FOBS was not under the Outer Space Treaty back in the 60's and Russia appears to be ready to do the same with Sarmat.

Does that mean "Russia is to some extent concerned about a nuke attack from Israel"? Hrmm. In what kind of scenario, with what goals?

And Russia would be more concerned about a nuke attack from Israel than, say, from Iran and its godcrazy proxies?
Its quite simple, Russia and Iran are allies, Russia and Israel are not. Israel has nukes, Iran does not. I'm sure if Russia and Iran stop being allies and the Iranians get nukes, then Russia will be concerned about Iranian nukes.
 

Forest Green

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Oh I know, but the reason the R-36O came up in SALT II was because the US saw it as a breach of that earlier treaty, due to its capability to put a nuclear weapon in orbit. Just like the Iskander-K is a breach of the INF Treaty whether it actually carries a nuke or not.
 

bobbymike

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Mark S.

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The ground based missiles force the adversaries to target them and not out cities. Without MIRV's it's a 1:1 exchange.
 

bobbymike

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sferrin

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Interesting. It's not like ATK Northrop Grumman is lacking for facilities around here.
 

RanulfC

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Interesting. It's not like ATK Northrop Grumman is lacking for facilities around here.
New product, (new budget actually :) ) new facility... It's a tradition ;)

RAndy
 

bobbymike

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bobbymike

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chimeric oncogene

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(I don't know whether this is the right place for this, but the Bar seemed like a good spot)

May I ask how I can sign up to join the TBOverse forum? My browser doesn't display any means of signing up, and I think they recently locked all nonmembers out of the forum entirely, so I can't see any posts at all. All those lovely detailed Valkyrie and F-12B posts, locked away forever...
 

sferrin

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(I don't know whether this is the right place for this, but the Bar seemed like a good spot)

May I ask how I can sign up to join the TBOverse forum? My browser doesn't display any means of signing up, and I think they recently locked all nonmembers out of the forum entirely, so I can't see any posts at all. All those lovely detailed Valkyrie and F-12B posts, locked away forever...
So start a thread. Dropping your request in the middle of a random thread. . .
 

chimeric oncogene

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(I don't know whether this is the right place for this, but the Bar seemed like a good spot)

May I ask how I can sign up to join the TBOverse forum? My browser doesn't display any means of signing up, and I think they recently locked all nonmembers out of the forum entirely, so I can't see any posts at all. All those lovely detailed Valkyrie and F-12B posts, locked away forever...
So start a thread. Dropping your request in the middle of a random thread. . .
My apologies. I shall do just that.
 
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