European AFV development in a continued Cold War

[Keyboard Commando]

I've seen other threads discuss American and Soviet development more extensively so I wanted to focus on European (NATO & WarPac) designs. Premise being Stalin dies in 1945 and is replaced by Malenkov, giving them a better trajectory for modernization and economic development with minimal changes to the OTL Cold War. Anyway, I think we've seen how European cooperation and multinational programs usually suffer from cost overruns, delays, and infighting due to specific national requirements. The Boxer originated with the EVA program of the 90s that was started after the fall of the USSR, the Daimler EXF and Nexter Vextra were tech demonstrators for EVA, would Boxer even come to fruition or would we see those two vehicles be developed instead due to national pride and differing doctrines? The Marder 2 was a much simpler and heavier vehicle that predated the NGP program that gave us the Puma, TRACER in the UK is another interesting concept that was supposed to replace the CVR(T) family as a dedicated armored recon vehicle. How do you think European AFV development would look in a continued Cold War?

 

[SSgtC]

Maybe a Leopard 3 armed with a 140mm cannon and more armor? We might see European nations fielding both the Bradley and Abrams as well.

 

[uk 75]

The makeup of European forces in the 90s was pretty much in place at the end of the Cold War.
Tanks
West Germany would have ordered more Leopard 2 tanks to replace Leopard 1 which in turn would have replaced M48 in Territorial units. Netherlands would have ordered more Leo2 to replace Leo1 and Centurions. Belgium may have ordered Leo2 to replace all or some Leo1. Canada and Denmark bought Leo2 in real life so no change. Italy introduces the Ariete to more units. Greece and Turkey would have received Leo1s and some Leo2. Spain might have bought Leclerc joining France (Greece too). Portugal might also have got Leopards. The UK got Challenger 2 but might have retained some Challenger1s
The US replaced all M60andM48 in the 90s in real life but in alt 90s the M1 would have been in units disbanded after 1991
IFV/APC
Apart from the Marder 2 I don't see much change. Belgium and Holland had the AIFV/M113 family. Canada might have replaced M113 in 4CMB with a European or US IFV. France might have improved its AMX10. Italy did introduce new stuff as did Spain. The UK would have had Warrior but FV432 would probably have soldiered on as it was the cheapest option. The awful Saxons might have been replaced by Boxers
Artillery except for new AA systems stays as in our 90s. Germany might have developed a system to replace Gepard and Roland

 

[Nik]

Might Germans have fielded some 'casemate' tank killers to supplement the MBTs ? Perhaps on same chassis as 'shoot + scoot' artillery...

 

[Cjc]

The makeup of European forces in the 90s was pretty much in place at the end of the Cold War.
Tanks
West Germany would have ordered more Leopard 2 tanks to replace Leopard 1 which in turn would have replaced M48 in Territorial units. Netherlands would have ordered more Leo2 to replace Leo1 and Centurions. Belgium may have ordered Leo2 to replace all or some Leo1. Canada and Denmark bought Leo2 in real life so no change. Italy introduces the Ariete to more units. Greece and Turkey would have received Leo1s and some Leo2. Spain might have bought Leclerc joining France (Greece too). Portugal might also have got Leopards. The UK got Challenger 2 but might have retained some Challenger1s
The US replaced all M60andM48 in the 90s in real life but in alt 90s the M1 would have been in units disbanded after 1991
IFV/APC
Apart from the Marder 2 I don't see much change. Belgium and Holland had the AIFV/M113 family. Canada might have replaced M113 in 4CMB with a European or US IFV. France might have improved its AMX10. Italy did introduce new stuff as did Spain. The UK would have had Warrior but FV432 would probably have soldiered on as it was the cheapest option. The awful Saxons might have been replaced by Boxers
Artillery except for new AA systems stays as in our 90s. Germany might have developed a system to replace Gepard and Roland

It should be noted that Germany was working towards the panzer2000 tank with 140mm gun and posably a autocannon for ifv work (when it was found that 2 crew gust wasn't good enough but with three there gust wasn't enough room for enough 140mm rounds). with the lepard 2s (posably uprated to the L55) moveing down to the taratorials after 2000, the m48 and m60 had already been replaced by Leo 1 buy 1990.

 

[Elan Vital]

WarPac designs.

The 90's were getting kinda interesting on that front since the Non-Soviet WP were starting to launch more independent projects, although unification with the Soviet designs was still significant. We do know about East-German orders up to 2000 and this gives some insight into what the other countries would do too.

The plans largely entailed switching to the next generation of Soviet products:
- T-72S acquired from the USSR and Polish and Czech lines (Polish dependent on the success of the negotiations, but likely)
- completion of modernization from T-55A to T-55AM2, T-72 and T-72M to T-72M1 (everyone)
- Tunguska, Strela 10M3 and Buk for the ADN
- full replacement of Malyutka with Konkurs/Fagot and conversion of BMP-1 to BMP-1P
- Introduction of BMP-2 and BTR-80 transports (latter for E-Ger only)
- Introduction of 120mm Tundscha mortar (E-Ger)

It is likely that more modern SPGs like 2S19 to supersede 2S3 or modernization to 2S3M1 would happen too.

This hides some indigenous variations or projects which were likely to be completed too:
- East-German modernization of T-72M1 with the SVIR gun-launched missile complex and associated 1A40-1 FCS of T-72S, as well as thermal sights.
- Polish and Czech FCS for Warpac T-72s as these were somewhat better than the Soviet system
- Czech DU APFSDS program to finally provide the Warpac with an indigenous supply of modern projectiles
- Czech and Polish ERA and applique armor projects to modernize T-72s and BMPs
- Czech recon variant of the BMP-2 with special sensors
- Polish 1000hp engine program for T-72
- Czech STROP-II SPAAG, which might possibly be adopted by Poland as both countries wanted to work together on the AA
- Dana followed by Ondava SPG for CSSR and Poland.
- Bulgarian MT-LB GRAD-1 MLRS production (only producer of this vehicle for the entire Pact)
- Bulgarian BMP-30 (likely to happen)

 

[Archibald]

France wuld probably order more than the paltry number of Leclercs it procured OTL. Also Hades missile to replace the Plutons (charming names !) but that's no AFV anymore.

 

[Elan Vital]

France wuld probably order more than the paltry number of Leclercs it procured OTL. Also Hades missile to replace the Plutons (charming names !) but that's no AFV anymore.

Some 1400 planned, and VBL numbers were cut by half and TRM 10000 were divided by 5. No doubt the development and deployment of improved ammo and armor schemes would have been faster and more extensive too, which combined with lower unit cost would improve Leclerc's competitivity although I'm afraid it was far too late.
AMX-30B2 conversions would also likely not be cut and more (if not all), would get Castor thermals and Mack E9 engines (the latter was planned even before 1989).

Roland 3 would be completely instead of partially implemented, while Roland Mach 5 development continues for France and Germany, providing a very potent SHORAD/medium range system.
AuF2 probably happens, possibly on Leclerc hull down the line.

AMX-10RC probably gets the more powerful 105 G2 gun as the threat of Soviet tanks would be greater. Possibly the complete TML 105 turret upgrade for extra survivability and better fire control.

The Baudoin 6F11 engine was already equipping all post-1985 AMX-10RCs. It was supposed to be used on AMX-10P but not sure if this was still planned before 1989. The company was also about to deploy the even more powerful 400hp 6F12 at the same volume, but this was mostly offered for the Mars 15 IFV so not sure it would be part of another AMX-10 family upgrade.

Not sure about 25mm on AMX-10P since a successor would arrive in the 2000s, but maybe?
Ditto about VAB NG, it was excellent but would France buy the upgrade?