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1
Operation Steinbock is pretty revealing about the state of the Luftwaffe by the end of the war and its ability to strike at Britain.

Assuming Hitler's mania for destroying London pencils it in as target number one, that means hoping an He 177 is going to get through, bombing at night. Accuracy during Steinbock was mixed, some success was seen using Ju 88S as pathfinders, but the early raids were inaccurate.

Even assuming a best case scenario, that the He 177 gets through the night fighter and AA defences and drops its bomb (which works), and that the drop is accurate and falls somewhere near or on Westminster to have a chance of destroying the main governmental heart the effects would not be terminal. London is a big target and military and political headquarters are scattered all over the city and outlying areas. By 1944 the state structure is decentralised to some extent and there are Allied military commands all over the country.
Destroying London does not stop a couple of thousand USAAF and RAF bombers heading out to deliver retribution the next day and night and carrying on the bombing campaign relentlessly. And if D-Day has already taken place, it has no impact on the land campaign as long as Allied resolve holds. Public morale may have slumped depending on the scale of the devastation and if the PM and Royal Family are killed plus the effect of unconfirmed rumours and false stories if the BBC and national press is unable to function in the immediate aftermath. But the counter is the desire for revenge that may have balanced this morale loss. Britain (or the USSR) in 1944 or 1945 is not in the same position same as Japan in 1945, who was industrially, logistically and militarily crippled and unable to take any decisive counter-action.

I think that if London had been destroyed by nazi "dirty" atomic bomb, Germans would be now a species extinct.
2

Out of curiosity, would WWII have ended in at least Germany's favor if they made nuclear weapons operational first?

I remember someone on...a very politically incorrect imageboard...stating that it's a miracle the USA didn't tell everyone after they nuked Japan "Hey guys, I got nukes, everyone bow down to me or else!", because if they did the world would have belonged to them and them only, never mind their former allies in Britain and the USSR. I doubt Germany would've been that conservative after vaporizing a city with such a newfangled weapon.

(For the record, I don't go there anymore and don't plan to ever again)

I have read that the German "atomic" scientists captured by British Army and spied by microphones were completely stunned after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Nazist Germany  were behind USA in atomic bomb development.
So,if at a certain point the war had gone a little better for Germany,war in Europe would be over in august 1945 with a atomic mushroom over Berlin (or another couple of German city).
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David Black, The Bonny Boy, 2019

United Kingdom

HMS Berkhamsted (ex-USS ?)
Town Class Destroyer
Details as per the real ships

HMS Bedivere
B Class Destroyer
Details as per the real ships
Note: Explicitly identified as a B Class Destroyer by the author.

HMS Calliope
Dido Class Cruiser
Details as per the real ships.
Note: Name clashes with a Calypso Class Corvette launched in 1884, converted to a training ship in 1902 (Between 1915 - 1931, it was named HMS Helicon to avoid a name clash with the C Class Cruiser HMS Calliope.) and finally scrapped in 1953.

HMS Ellan Vannin
Submarine Depot Ship (12th Submarine Flotilla (Fictional Version))
Converted passenger ship
Note: Ex-Isle of Man Steam Packet Company ferry boat. No specifics are given but general characteristcs/appearance are probably similar to the five ships the company built in the period between 1927 - 1936. The name of the ship has only been used once by the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company, that ship was lost with all hands in 1909. In real life the 12th Submarine Flotilla was formed on the 17th of April 1943 to take control of the X-Boats.

HMS Maidstone
Submarine Depot Ship (8th Submarine Flotilla (Real Formation))
Real ship, details as in service.

HMS H-57
H Class Submarine
Note: See the novel 'Gone To Sea In A Bucket' (2015) for the details on this ship. This novel indicates she survived into 1942.

HMS Nonpareil
N Class Submarine (Fictional)
See the novel 'Turn Left For Gibraltar' (2017) for the class details.
Note: Name clashes with an N Class Destroyer transferred to Holland in 1942 as the HNLMS Tjerk Hiddes and an Algerine Class Minsweeper whose construction was cancelled shortly after it started in 1944.

HMS Niobe
N Class Submarine (Fictional)
See the novel 'Turn Left For Gibraltar' (2017) for the class details.

HMS Safari (P211)
S Class Submarine
Real ship, details as in service.

HMS Scourge
S Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships.
Note: Name clash with S Class Destroyer in launched in December 1942 and in service from July 1943 to February 1946. It also clashes with HMAS Scourge, a fictional N Class Destroyer created by author J. E. MacDonnell. An S Class Submarine of the same name appears in the 1943 set novel 'The Gatecrashers' (1984) by Alexander Fullerton.

HMS Sepoy
S Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships.
Note: Name clashes with a Auk Class Minesweeper launched in 1943 and immediately taken into US service as USS Dextrous (AM-341).

HMS P268
S Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships.
Note: The submarine in the novel is destroyed by German bombing in 1942 before it is completed. In real life HMS Sprightly (P268) was ordered in 1943 and construction was cancelled at the end of the war.

HMS Tenacious
T Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships
Note: Name clashes with a T Class Destroyer commissioned in October 1943.

HMS Trinity
T Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships

HMS Turbid
T Class Submarine
Details as per the real ships.

Italy

Capella
Spica Class Torpedo Boat
Details as per the real ships

Procyon
Spica Class Torpedo Boat
Details as per the real ships

Unnamed
Various MAS Boats and Armed Trawlers

Germany

Atilla
Tank Transporter
4000 tons
Speed: 15 knots
No other details provided.

Plot summary: The year is 1942. The Hero, in command of his own submarine at last learns the most important lesson of all, some of the people out to get you wear the same uniform you do.

Note (Spoilers): The story runs between May and late 1942 (Operation Torch occurs in this novel.). It's nice to read a series in which the author is not afraid to have the hero make mistakes from time to time. It will be interesting to read the next novel in the series when it comes out, especially as the conflict mentioned so heavily in the online blurb does not take place until the last pages of the novel.
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Trailer for the fourth and last season of the series.



This is pure speculation on my part, but I'd say we are going to see what happens when a waveform collapses...
5
Alternative History and Future Speculation / Re: The Man in the High Castle
« Last post by Hood on Today at 02:29:01 am »
Operation Steinbock is pretty revealing about the state of the Luftwaffe by the end of the war and its ability to strike at Britain.

Assuming Hitler's mania for destroying London pencils it in as target number one, that means hoping an He 177 is going to get through, bombing at night. Accuracy during Steinbock was mixed, some success was seen using Ju 88S as pathfinders, but the early raids were inaccurate.

Even assuming a best case scenario, that the He 177 gets through the night fighter and AA defences and drops its bomb (which works), and that the drop is accurate and falls somewhere near or on Westminster to have a chance of destroying the main governmental heart the effects would not be terminal. London is a big target and military and political headquarters are scattered all over the city and outlying areas. By 1944 the state structure is decentralised to some extent and there are Allied military commands all over the country.
Destroying London does not stop a couple of thousand USAAF and RAF bombers heading out to deliver retribution the next day and night and carrying on the bombing campaign relentlessly. And if D-Day has already taken place, it has no impact on the land campaign as long as Allied resolve holds. Public morale may have slumped depending on the scale of the devastation and if the PM and Royal Family are killed plus the effect of unconfirmed rumours and false stories if the BBC and national press is unable to function in the immediate aftermath. But the counter is the desire for revenge that may have balanced this morale loss. Britain (or the USSR) in 1944 or 1945 is not in the same position same as Japan in 1945, who was industrially, logistically and militarily crippled and unable to take any decisive counter-action.
6
Let face it, the Nazi nuclear weapon programs were a mess

And i mean programs, up to 39 different groups were trying to build the bomb in The Third Reich
one of them was german reich postal service !

But the Programs suffers the lack material and scientist, who were jewish and understandable left The Third Reich direction USA
Next to that the main program under Carl Fredrich von Weizsäcker went from complete wrong assumption
His calculation for Bomb went into 50 tons of light enriched Uranium as core and He ignored the need for Plutonium

In mean time Jewish scientist in USA, were cooking Plutonium for the first US Atomic Bombs.
While USAAF was getting with B-29 and B-36 bombers the means to get Nukes to targets
ahh yes, the Göring Luftwaffe and issue of long range heavy Bomber or there lack of them...


That explain why Phillip k. Dick were so vage about use of german Atomic weapon in novel.
7
1: Heisenberg knew all along how to build a bomb but ran the program in circles to keep Hitler from getting one
2: He'd really believed in the bad design, but had a brainstorm when he knew for a fact that a far smaller and more practical device had been built.

It's been a while since I saw "Kampen om tungvannet" so my recollection is not perfect. The thesis in the series definitely veered towards option "1" as you presented it - at least it had Niels Bohr discouraging Heisenberg in their interactions from delivering a bomb to the nazis, "bad design" elements (both "naive" and "purposeful") and finally a pointed scene where a (I presume) disillusioned Heisenberg wiped a compact design off a chalkboard. There are scenes of some reactor experiments and the depiction of whole effort seems well resourced and determined on the political side at least. Where the series is likely most factual is the sabotage effort of the heavy water plant as that is a point of (resistance) pride in Norway.
8
It is strongly implied in the plot that his team came close to a practical device, or at least had a workable solution towards that.

Nope. Nothing ever found indicates that the Nazis had clue one about how to make a practical nuke. Their rather vague conception required a bomb with something like *tons* of weapons grade uranium, which they were nowhere near to being able to produce. The story goes, however, that after VE Day Heisenberg & Co.were kept in a British farmhouse that was bugged up one side and down the other. They were allowed to hear the initial reports of the a-bombing of Hiroshima; the second bananas expressed shock that the US was able to produce a practical device and, the story goes, Heisenberg more or less immediately went to a chalk board and showed how it could be done with far less uranium than the Germans had been planning on. The implication is either:
1: Heisenberg knew all along how to build a bomb but ran the program in circles to keep Hitler from getting one
2: He'd really believed in the bad design, but had a brainstorm when he knew for a fact that a far smaller and more practical device had been built.

The Germans probably could have made a *radiological* dirty bomb with what they had, but they could have achieved much the same with chemical weapons. Most of the claims of just such weapons, like the V-2 modified for that purpose, have proven to be either misunderstandings or outright BS.
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Alternative History and Future Speculation / Re: The Man in the High Castle
« Last post by UpForce on Yesterday at 11:57:54 pm »
... Their biggest enemy was always Stalin. ...

As always between expansionist totalitarian empires as projected through the self-interests of their opportunistic leaders, defining "allies" and "enemies" is more transactional than absolute (or rational in a societal sense). This is as evident today as it was then. Lest it not be forgotten here, for a substantial period of the duration of/in the run up to WWII, Stalin and Hitler were in agreement about "dividing" the nations between their respective empires without a shot being fired (upon one another) as codified in the so-called "Molotov-Ribbentrop pact". This followed an already extended period of tentative co-operation, save for some comfortably distant and useful proxy conflicts like the Spanish civil war (somewhat analogous to the tragedies of current-day Syria).

Readings:
SOWING THE WIND: THE FIRST SOVIET-GERMAN MILITARY PACT AND THE ORIGINS OF WORLD WAR II, Ian Johnson, June 7, 2016, War on The Rocks
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Wikipedia, didn't proofread this but on a cursory glance seems ok
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, 1939, text, Fordham university Modern History Sourcebook
GERMAN-SOVIET PACT, Holocaust encyclopedia
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact In Pictures, Radio Free Europe, November 11, 2009

... But the Germans had little access to uranium and didn't have the physics infrastructure to make it work, nor the industrial infrastructure needed to process uranium ore into weapons grade uranium or plutonium. ...

I thoroughly enjoyed viewing a dramatization on this subject, "Kampen om tungtvannet" (Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation NRK, 2015). How much of Werner Heisenberg's efforts depicted in the mini-series was based on hard documentation and how much was educated conjecture, I couldn't quite tell. It is strongly implied in the plot that his team came close to a practical device, or at least had a workable solution towards that.
10

Out of curiosity, would WWII have ended in at least Germany's favor if they made nuclear weapons operational first?

Setting aside for the moment the difficulty Germany would have had with actually producing nukes... who would they have nuked? Their biggest enemy was always Stalin. If the Nazis had nuked Moscow or Stalingrad at the height of the war, they'd be just sorta reheating the rubble. And I suspect all it would have done is piss off the Soviets even *more.*

If they'd nuked Britain, chances are good that they could have gotten the Brits to decide to bail. But nuking a couple of already trashed Russian cities? General Turgidson had some wise words about that: "I mean, you take your average Russkie, we all know how much guts he's got. Hell, lookit all them Nazis killed off and they still wouldn't quit."

If the Nazis had *enough* nukes, they could turn western Russia into a dead zone and the Russian army into a historical footnote. But the Germans had little access to uranium and didn't have the physics infrastructure to make it work, nor the industrial infrastructure needed to process uranium ore into weapons grade uranium or plutonium.

My suspicion is if the Nazis had actually managed to pop out a couple of nukes of dirty bombs, all that would have happened is that Germany would have been utterly erased... either by a rain of American nukes a little while later, or by an army of radioactive commiezombies.



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