no. Not sure at all. And that's probably where they will be heading for a fundamental upgrade with the advent.
But modifying the size, altering significantly the structure while maintaining its RCS will cost long years of development. I think that's why LM offered the F-22 body transplant. Hence my two lines of comment above. It's a faster way to get the same result.
Well, such a programme would involve restarting the F-22 production line, while also upgrading the entire F-22 to F-35 equivalent standards, and incorporating the likely inevitable Japanese subsystems, which would be fairly costly and time consuming.
Of course, it would likely be faster Japan going for a clean sheet twin engine heavy air superiority fighter (whether it's alone or with a partner) -- but it would be slower than going for a modded F-35 given the F-35 is still very much in production with a much more active infrastructure and industry still working on it
The way I see it, in terms of time and cost, it goes something like:
Clean sheet F-3 design > modernized F-22 >> modded F-35
But in terms of air superiority capability, it'll probably be something like:
Modernized F-22 would likely be similar in capability to clean sheet F-3 design >> modded F-35
The other factor to mention is the degree of Japanese industry involvement in the project, whether they have control of the key subsystems and so on. In that regard, I imagine it would be something like:
Clean sheet F-3 design >> modernized F-22 similar to modded F-35
So the most capable option that also has the most Japanese involvement would also likely end up being the most time consuming and expensive option. A modernized F-22 will probably be broadly similarly capable but will probably be only a little less expensive and slightly less time consuming but will probably not have anywhere near as much Japanese industry involvement. A modded F-35 OTOH will be the least expensive by far and also least time consuming but it won't have the same kind of kinematic performance as either a clean sheet F-3 or a modernized F-22, and like the modernized F-22 it probably won't have as much Japanese industry involvement.
... so it'll depend on what the JASDF ends up valuing more
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