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Author Topic: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet  (Read 7399 times)

Offline LowObservable

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #75 on: November 12, 2017, 06:41:27 am »
All the doomsaying about the F-35 being the end of the world for Europe has, predictably, turned out to be incorrect.

Errr.... predictably, according to whom? Certainly not this uninformed outsider:

The head of the Pentagonís F-35 fighter program said on Wednesday that total sales of the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 Joint Strike Fighter could reach 6,000 over time, based on the number of fourth-generation fighters in use that would eventually need to be replaced.

Brigadier Gen. David Heinz, program executive officer for the F-35, said development and testing of the new fighter jet was going well, and the United States and its eight foreign partners were expected to order more than 3,100 fighters.

Initial foreign military sales to other countries such as Spain, Israel, Greece, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Finland could add at least 1,000 more orders.

In time, as world fleets of F-15, F-16, F-18 and other fighter jets need replacements, sales could climb as high as 6,000, Heinz told reporters at the Paris Air Show
.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-airshow-lockheed-fighter-sb/pentagon-sees-6000-possible-f-35-sales-idUSTRE55G28020090617

I don't recall a lot of people challenging that prediction at the time, and it couldn't come true unless the decline in combat airplane numbers in the West reversed itself in high gear, or unless the F-35 replaced everything else.

And it's a strawman to talk about anyone being forced to do anything. They were to be convinced by overwhelmingly attractive acquisition and operating costs.

PS - There's certainly never been any other replacement plan for the F-15E, nor was any major enhancement/life extension in the budget until the F-35 schedule slipped.


Offline Hood

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #76 on: November 12, 2017, 07:12:44 am »
I think a 1,000 F-35 airframes between Spain, Israel, Greece, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Finland is optimistic, the European nations in that list have relatively small fighter fleets and dodgy economies. Israel doesn't seem to be bulk buying as yet, South Korea and Japan will probably buy some but their home-grown efforts are meant to be cheaper fleet-bulkers to operate with a smaller number of F-35s.
But I do think the F-35 is in for the long-haul and sales will accumulate, I doubt it well ever match the F-16 in terms of sales but I think that even in 2045 F-35s will still be rolling off the production line.

I think arguing over the F-35's industrial impact is irrelevant, its keeping facilities open that otherwise would now be idle and shut. Within ten years the Eurofighter lines will be shut, how long can Dassault keep the Rafale going before they run out of work? That's the big hole, the loss of industrial expertise of making stuff. Assembling bits of F-35 at least keeps people in work and the technical know-how running. At least BAE Systems is keeping their design folks busy by sub-contracting them out for other nations' projects.

Offline sferrin

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #77 on: November 12, 2017, 07:20:17 am »
Errr.... predictably, according to whom? Certainly not this uninformed outsider:

I was never convinced simply because keeping the capability to develop fighter aircraft in-house is too important.  One only need to point to Japan, South Korea, Turkey, France, and Sweden for evidence of that.  Why would Europe be any different?
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Offline LowObservable

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #78 on: November 12, 2017, 07:55:21 am »
I think arguing over the F-35's industrial impact is irrelevant, its keeping facilities open that otherwise would now be idle and shut.

Wouldn't they be open and building different airplanes?

Offline DWG

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #79 on: November 14, 2017, 07:43:29 am »
Amazing that in the who did what to whom argument no one mentioned "And then the Warsaw Pact self-destructed and totally screwed all our projections." The problems affecting Typhoon/Rafale etc sales aren't so much an F-35 plot as the end of the Cold War sucking all the momentum out of their development, which as an indirect effect led to them competing with F-35

Offline LowObservable

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #80 on: November 14, 2017, 07:53:27 am »
Well, yes - NATO in the PCW era suddenly didn't have the threat that they had been arming against. The result (particularly USAF and France) was a drawdown via retirement-without-replacement of the oldest airplanes, which had the secondary effect of reducing the average age of the force. France and the EF nations dealt with that by pushing out the ISDs, while the US took a bet on stopping nearly all procurement and then buying something new at a rate of >150/year from 2010-2025.

Offline marauder2048

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #81 on: November 14, 2017, 03:44:16 pm »
PS - There's certainly never been any other replacement plan for the F-15E, nor was any major enhancement/life extension in the budget until the F-35 schedule slipped.

F-15E AESA upgrade funding started way back in the 2003-2004 period during which the USAF was still receiving new-build F-15Es
and telling congress that the F-15E would serve until at least 2030. 

GAO tells me the list of candidates seriously considered to the replace the F-15E goes all the way back to at least the A-12.

The RAND study from 1995 ("The Gray Threat") was already showing that the EFA (EF-2000) and Rafale were pricing themselves
out of the teen-series replacement market. 

That left Gripen which has been out-performed by upgraded teen-series in the Finnish and Swiss evaluations.
And because of Gripen's substantial US content, it's not that much cheaper to own/operate.

Of course, all of this talk about new combat aircraft development is silly since we've been told that it's all about upgrades, pods and payloads.

Online Arjen

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #82 on: November 15, 2017, 03:10:32 am »
On cost: following the logic of the RAND study from 1995, I would say F-35 has priced itself out of the teen-series replacement race too.

When South Korea held its competition for 60 new fighters, F-15SE and Typhoon were offered within budget. The competition was re-run, with South Korea signing up for 40 F-35s, on the same budget.
The Dutch air force has had an inflation-corrected F-16 replacement budget since the late nineties, which at the start was deemed sufficient for 85 aircraft. This number dwindled to 37 a few years ago. The Dutch, having already paid for two development aircraft, have since ordered an additional 8 aircraft. More F-35s are expected to be ordered later, with some uncertainty whether enough will be left from the fixed, inflation corrected budget to achieve a 37 aircraft fleet. The Dutch accounting office has repeatedly warned about the financial burden of operating F-35s, identifying it as a threat to other defence activities - think army, navy.

Gripen E won the Swiss competition on cost (cost *really* matters), but the win was nixed by a referendum with no aircraft being ordered at all.
Brazil has chosen Gripen E(/F) as well.
On the Finnish competition, the verdict is yet to come.

I expect a new Franco-German jet to be extremely costly.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 04:17:55 am by Arjen »

Offline LowObservable

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #83 on: November 15, 2017, 04:45:10 am »
That left Gripen which has been out-performed by upgraded teen-series in the Finnish and Swiss evaluations.

As Arjen points out, this statement is nonfactual. The Swiss evaluation was against the Rafale and Typhoon, and the Gripen won, and the Finnish contest has not concluded.

And because of Gripen's substantial US content, it's not that much cheaper to own/operate.

Aside from being a nonsequitur, lower operational cost was the key to the Swiss decision.

Offline SpudmanWP

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #84 on: November 15, 2017, 07:35:33 am »
Keep in mind the Korean F-35 deal was for LRIP F-35s.  It's a little disingenuous to compare LRIP prices to well established fighter lines given that the F-35 is already far cheaper than the numbers in the Korean deal.
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Online TomcatViP

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #85 on: November 15, 2017, 07:44:15 am »
That would be weird assumption given that the available price of the F35 is under 100M$ when 4th gen design (exept Russian) are understood to be above that line.

Online Arjen

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #86 on: November 15, 2017, 08:25:33 am »
Keep in mind the Korean F-35 deal was for LRIP F-35s.  It's a little disingenuous to compare LRIP prices to well established fighter lines given that the F-35 is already far cheaper than the numbers in the Korean deal.
Let's wait and see how many F-35s the Dutch budget (or any other) will buy. To me, US government accounting of the F-35 project's cost is extremely complex and difficult to follow.
France and Germany may or may not go ahead with a new fighter. If they do, I dearly hope that project's cost will be easier to interpret.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 08:31:39 am by Arjen »

Offline marauder2048

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #87 on: November 15, 2017, 10:01:21 am »
That left Gripen which has been out-performed by upgraded teen-series in the Finnish and Swiss evaluations.

As Arjen points out, this statement is nonfactual. The Swiss evaluation was against the Rafale and Typhoon, and the Gripen won, and the Finnish contest has not concluded.

And because of Gripen's substantial US content, it's not that much cheaper to own/operate.

Aside from being a nonsequitur, lower operational cost was the key to the Swiss decision.

Note I said evaluation:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/81390363/Swiss-Air-Force-Confidential-Report-on-the-Evaluation-of-the-Eurofighter-the-Gripen-NG-and-the-Rafale

Quote
The Gripen's current capabilities for DCA missions are inferior to those of the Swiss F/A-18/CD,
which  entered service in the Swiss Air Force 11 years ago
.

It's pretty damning with regard to the proposed Gripen MS21 (~ NG) as well.

The Finnish Air Force evaluated the Gripen in the early 1990s (from hornetfinn)

Quote
Finnish evaluation in earrly 1990s showed that while Gripen had fairly low running costs,
it had expensive spare parts and F/A-18C/D actually had favourable life-time costs. This was serious
surprise as Hornet was not originally even considered as it was thought to be too
expensive to buy and operate. That assumption proved to be false and Hornet was selected
due to having best capabilties and also second cheapest life-time costs. Cheapest was not published b
ut many things indicate that it was F-16 which was the cheapest and Gripen the third.
I seriously doubt the costs have changed that much for Gripen since then.

On cost: following the logic of the RAND study from 1995, I would say F-35 has priced itself out of the teen-series replacement race too.

You're thinking of the Super Hornet which as RAND estimates predicted turned out to be very expensive
and generally uncompetitive.

When South Korea held its competition for 60 new fighters, F-15SE and Typhoon were offered within budget.

The F-15SE did not exist in any meaningful way which combined with the fact that is used a hybrid FMS/direct commercial
sale made cost comparisons and predictions problematic as subsequent events showed.

Offline LowObservable

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #88 on: November 15, 2017, 11:21:14 am »
Keep in mind the Korean F-35 deal was for LRIP F-35s.  It's a little disingenuous to compare LRIP prices to well established fighter lines given that the F-35 is already far cheaper than the numbers in the Korean deal.

LRIP schmelrip (maybe I shouldn't use that expression around Marauder ;D), the first RoKAF aircraft will still be production number >250.

Yes, there was that Swiss document. It was clearly not final -  since they picked the Gripen. And a second-hand account of a Finnish evaluation prior to the 1992 Hornet order is of historical interest at best.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2017, 11:22:59 am by LowObservable »

Offline SpudmanWP

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Re: France and Germany to develop new european fighter jet
« Reply #89 on: November 15, 2017, 11:31:30 am »
Quote
the first RoKAF aircraft will still be production number >250.
Which is still being produced at a rate much lower than FRP.
WE4-45-1-08     OMHIWDMB
"The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."