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Author Topic: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III  (Read 46931 times)

Online latenlazy

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #420 on: December 27, 2018, 09:53:59 am »
indeed. Nice photo! I wish we could also see a speed vector and have more data than these very raw indications. @latenlazy It would also be quite logical to have such a system. Do you have more of such photos
These photos are all from the latest Zhuhai aerospace convention, which happened a month and a half ago. There are many more photos, but more importantly we have video for most of the performances the J-20 did during the convention, and there’s one or two in particular that show the full set of different phases the J-20’s vortex generation system goes through.

Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #421 on: January 03, 2019, 03:20:41 pm »
Partly J-20 related but more related to Chinese 6th gen efforts. An interview with Wang Haifeng, Chief Designer at Chengdu/611 institute

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lgkYhxJsG_Tt-Cf5LlvOFQ

This part is probably most important:

美国发布了未来的2030 空中优势飞行计划,欧洲也公布了未来战斗机作战概念和方案,有一些技术方向是普遍认可、比较明朗的,比如说有人/ 无人协同技术、人工智能技术、极高隐身技术、全向探测全向攻击技术等,也有一些不太确定的创新颠覆性技术,像激光武器技术、自适应发动机、高超音速武器、蜂群作战,这些技术可能会改变未来的战争模式。

我们根据自己设计的战争,选取、补充了一些技术方向,根据其特点和成熟度的不同采取不一样的组织模式开展预研攻关,相信在2035 年或者更近的未来,会看到,现在的努力正转化成守护海天的利器。


... Basically, it translates to Wang acknowledging efforts in the US and Europe for next gen fighter technologies, and states that various trends can be seen like manned/unmanned pairing, high stealth, application of AI, and other aspects that may also see application like lasers, adaptive engines, hypersonic weapons, swarming.
Afterwards, he expects Chinese efforts to develop such a weapon (6th gen fighter) will see a weapon emerge to enter service by 2035 or earlier ("defending the seas and skies"). 

Offline totoro

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #422 on: January 04, 2019, 12:44:15 am »
As a replacement for J-20 there's no chance new fighter would come by 2035. That being said, if J-31 doesn't see widespread service in PLAAF, a replacement for J-10 may indeed enter service by 2035, and it's plausible such a plane in such a timeframe might have some features that touch upon the so-called 6th generation plane. But the guy is basically just sharing his own private thoughts/expectations/wishes, most likely.
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #423 on: January 04, 2019, 01:46:23 am »
Considering the timetables and fleet age, I can't imagine a 6th gen fighter by 2035 would have the job of replacing J-20s. Even the oldest J-20s by then would only still be under 20 years old.

However by 2035 I imagine large numbers of 4th gen fighters would still need replacing. By 2035 a meaningful number would've been replaced by J-20s, many would've been replaced and still continuing to be replaced by a medium weight fighter that may be FC-31 derived... however there'll likely still be hundreds of 4th gen fighters left.

I imagine those older 4th gen fighters would get transitioned over to existing 5th gen aircraft, while existing 5th gen units would then get transferred to 6th gen.


After all, in terms of years elapsed, the time between J-20 entering service and a PLA 6th gen entering service in 2035 is more than the time between J-10 entering service and J-20 entering service. That said I wouldn't be surprised if the real schedule moved to the right a little or if the initial model of PLA 6th gen is not 100% full spec (like how initial J-20s don't have WS-15).



But considering the Dr Wang's role in doing research and development for next gen fighter applications as stated in the article, I think his schedule is pretty credible. Back in the early 2000s we know a fighter development study was led by Gu Songfen (ex-SAC chief designer among other many other titles) that made some predictions for 5th gen requirements and schedules that turned out fairly accurate for J-20 (http://www.china-defense.com/smf/index.php?topic=7379.msg285086#msg285086)

By the interview I wouldn't be surprised if a similar study has already been well underway for 6th gen for a little while, and that important people involved like Dr Wang would have a grasp of a realistic timeline by now.   

I mean, one of his roles as stated in the opening paragraph is "[主持]下一代战斗机研制等多项“十三五”未来发展重点预先研究项目" -- presiding over pre-research for systems related to the next gen fighter aircraft, so his personal opinions should be pretty well informed.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 01:57:13 am by Blitzo »

Offline sferrin

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #424 on: January 04, 2019, 04:31:23 am »
I mean, one of his roles as stated in the opening paragraph is "[主持]下一代战斗机研制等多项“十三五”未来发展重点预先研究项目" -- presiding over pre-research for systems related to the next gen fighter aircraft, so his personal opinions should be pretty well informed.

So would the people who built the F-22/F-35/Rafale/Eurofighter.  How'd those timelines pan out?
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Offline Blitzo

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Re: Chengdu J-20 news, pictures, analysis Part III
« Reply #425 on: January 04, 2019, 11:33:59 am »
I mean, one of his roles as stated in the opening paragraph is "[主持]下一代战斗机研制等多项“十三五”未来发展重点预先研究项目" -- presiding over pre-research for systems related to the next gen fighter aircraft, so his personal opinions should be pretty well informed.

So would the people who built the F-22/F-35/Rafale/Eurofighter.  How'd those timelines pan out?

I wouldn't be surprised if things moved to the right. But Totoro was challenging the usefulness of his opinion and I was suggesting that his opinion should be considered rather authoritative and not just a personal view.

And the development of J-20 followed the early projections for a 5th gen fighter done in the 2000s quite closely if that is worth anything. But there are always unforeseen external factors that can't be accounted for.