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Author Topic: Space X Interplanetary Transport System  (Read 17971 times)

Offline fredymac

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #135 on: October 10, 2017, 04:41:42 am »
I'm way past the point of diminishing returns so I'll sum up.

As of now, Spacex is making rocket engines in multiple hundreds per year.  They are now making rocket bodies and space capsules at rates faster than at any time since the early 60’s.

Ironically enough, this isn’t rocket science.  Every market has a cost/size curve.  At $200Million/launch, you will have a small, specialized space market.  At $75Million/launch, the market will expand and you will become the dominant supplier.  At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs.  Most people would be thrilled at this prospect.  Some, apparently, are very upset.

Offline Michel Van

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #136 on: October 10, 2017, 10:28:33 am »
Good analysis, fredymac

But there two important factors missing: Launch rate and failure rate 

ULA offer for $220 million per Atlas V and do 8~9 launches a year with success rate of 100%
SpaceX offert for $76 million per Falcon 9 and do 20 launches a year with success rate of  95.23%
(two complete flight lost Nr 19 and Nr "29a" )

In several Statements Musk aim for weekly launch under reusable Block 5 booster.
That would be 52 launches a year.
What NASA believed to achieve in 1973 with Space Shuttle.

Now what has that to do with BFR/BSR ?  Allot  !
The BFR is a Saturn V size Rocket with all logistic problems of it.
but biggest question are what will be Launch rate and failure rate of it ?
and what happen to program if a BFR is lost with passengers on board ?!
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #137 on: October 10, 2017, 10:36:44 am »
what happen to program if a BFR is lost with passengers on board ?!

What happens to the 747 program if a plane is lost with passengers on board?

"On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport (now Tenerife North Airport), on the Spanish island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, killing 583 people in the deadliest accident in aviation history."


TWA 800 was a 747.

In fact, 28 747s have been lost over the years.

http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm

« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 10:39:44 am by sferrin »
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Offline blackstar

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #138 on: October 10, 2017, 10:40:40 am »
At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs. 

Can you provide evidence for your assertion? What data is this based upon?


Offline sferrin

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #139 on: October 10, 2017, 10:44:52 am »
At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs. 

Can you provide evidence for your assertion? What data is this based upon?

Common sense.  Like air travel, which was a novelty for the rich at one time, space flight (be it intercontinental, orbital, or whatnot) will start to attract the attention of the wealthy once it's shown to be affordable and relatively safe.
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline Michel Van

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #140 on: October 10, 2017, 11:44:10 am »
what happen to program if a BFR is lost with passengers on board ?!

What happens to the 747 program if a plane is lost with passengers on board?

"On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport (now Tenerife North Airport), on the Spanish island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, killing 583 people in the deadliest accident in aviation history."


TWA 800 was a 747.

In fact, 28 747s have been lost over the years.

http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm

Yes those 28 are around 1.8 % of all build 747s (1536 in sept 2017 ).
And put so cruelly, with those number accidents are consider as "normal"
A few remember what happen with TWA Flight 800 in 1997
While Tenerife crash is widely forgotten...
if you say Challenger and Colombia or 9/11, people know exactly what you talking about.

Similar will happen also to BRF because SpaceX is in focus of Public,
Musk get Rockstar treatment. So long he is successful,
If one BFR with passages blow up or crash, that will change...
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Offline sferrin

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #141 on: October 10, 2017, 02:42:51 pm »
Musk get Rockstar treatment. So long he is successful,
If one BFR with passages blow up or crash, that will change...

I disagree, but we'll have to wait to see who's correct. 
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline merriman

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #142 on: October 10, 2017, 05:23:27 pm »
Musk get Rockstar treatment. So long he is successful,
If one BFR with passages blow up or crash, that will change...

I disagree, but we'll have to wait to see who's correct.

We make sport of celebrity. We first idolize -- and, in time -- we crucify.

Ford changed the face of this nation through 'production' and created the American middle-class as we know it today. How quickly we dug up dirt on that man, to the point where today he's given the same respect and appreciation as we now bestow on Christopher Columbus.

No good deed goes unpunished in this country. Watch your ass, Elon.

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Offline fredymac

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #143 on: October 11, 2017, 05:42:39 am »
At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs. 

Can you provide evidence for your assertion? What data is this based upon?

Basic assumptions.  Use 100 flight amortization schedule so take booster cost and divide by 100.  Space capsule amortization might be more than 100 (heat shield can be replaced).  Assume upper stage is not re-used (but with steady production and reduced production cost) and will make up the bulk of the cost.  Labor/fuel/other recurring can be amortized over a full year of passenger revenue (bulk rate discounting).  You will eventually come up with something in this ballpark which is then divided by the 7 passengers in the capsule going to a Bigelow Space Hotel (separate billing).

Profit margin will be impacted by how many competitors enter the game.  I assume Blue Origin will be there so no monopoly.

Financial/legal/tax impacts are too hard to figure and can be counteracting.  I assume tax laws will be written to encourage this activity and will work towards lowering insurance/capital write-off burdens.

Offline Michel Van

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #144 on: October 12, 2017, 01:47:27 pm »
interesting some one made a cost estimation on BFR and
this had Orionblamblam  to say about this on his block (I got permission by him to post here)

Quote
The Space Review has an interesting piece that attempts to figure out how much BFR might cost to fly. My own estimate: I dunno. Done the old fashioned way, you’d go through a thousand pages of calculations, totaling up all the palm-greasing and bonuses and regulatory hoop-jumping and congresscritter bribes and extraneous R&D and sub-sub-subcontractor troubleshooting… and only then try to figure out what the actual manufacturing and testing and propellant and operations and maintenance will cost. And then tack on an extra zero, because of course you will. But here, SpaceX is operating in a whole new environment. Ten years ago I would have said the BFR would have been a ridiculously, laughably optimistic concept; now… you know, I bet they can pull it off, even if they need to slip the schedule some.

Estimating the cost of BFR http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3343/1

They come up with a conclusion that $240,000 per ton delivered to the surface of Mars is achievable. They also come up with a cost per seat of $1,200 for a point-to-point ballistic transport version stuffing 853 passengers on board, but here I become distinctly dubious. I’d bet real money that even if the technology works fantastically, the regulatory banhammer will come down on SpaceX SpaceLines the moment they try to actually fly passengers. Heck, I bet the US FedGuv will drop ITAR on SpaceX like a ton of white-hot bricks the moment SpaceX seriously proposes to launch  a BFR upper stage to some darned furrin country like Japan or Australia, never mind China or Dubai. Plus there will be practical issues which I think stand a *very* good chance of torpedoing an affordable ballistic transport system… passengers keeling over due to acceleration (or being ejected from the boarding line because a doctor says “no”), the sort of delays that space launch systems would find trivial would be monumental for a system meant to operate for only 30 minutes, difficulties getting passengers loaded on board, bad weather at the launch or landing site making it impossible for the vehicle or its booster to safely land… these can all cause a serious headache.

I am much less interested in the global transport aspect than I am in the orbital and interplanetary aspect. Sure, it’d be great to have a half-hour-to-antipodes transporter… but that wouldn’t have one percent the impact that a colony transport to Mars would have.
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Offline Byeman

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #145 on: October 13, 2017, 04:49:41 am »
At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs. 

Can you provide evidence for your assertion? What data is this based upon?

Basic assumptions.  Use 100 flight amortization schedule so take booster cost and divide by 100.  Space capsule amortization might be more than 100 (heat shield can be replaced).  Assume upper stage is not re-used (but with steady production and reduced production cost) and will make up the bulk of the cost.  Labor/fuel/other recurring can be amortized over a full year of passenger revenue (bulk rate discounting).  You will eventually come up with something in this ballpark which is then divided by the 7 passengers in the capsule going to a Bigelow Space Hotel (separate billing).

Profit margin will be impacted by how many competitors enter the game.  I assume Blue Origin will be there so no monopoly.

Financial/legal/tax impacts are too hard to figure and can be counteracting.  I assume tax laws will be written to encourage this activity and will work towards lowering insurance/capital write-off burdens.

GIGO.   The numbers you started with are not supported by evidence or data

Offline Byeman

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #146 on: October 13, 2017, 04:52:59 am »
what happen to program if a BFR is lost with passengers on board ?!

What happens to the 747 program if a plane is lost with passengers on board?

"On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport (now Tenerife North Airport), on the Spanish island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, killing 583 people in the deadliest accident in aviation history."


TWA 800 was a 747.

In fact, 28 747s have been lost over the years.

http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm

Not relevant.  BFR is not going to have the flight rate of 747. The accident rate of a BFR is going to be magnitudes more than an airliner

Offline Byeman

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #147 on: October 13, 2017, 04:54:48 am »
IIRC the Falcon contains ~20,000 sensors. The problem with their last failure was not all of them were on and being recorded.

Not true at all.  That is complete nonsense.  Do you know what the cost of that many sensors and the mass of the wiring would be?

Offline Byeman

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #148 on: October 13, 2017, 05:01:21 am »
At $10Million/launch (ie, fully realized re-usability), this is where things really change.  Wealthy individuals splitting the cost will kick start a tourist industry whose revenues will eventually swamp all other markets and provide for R&D to further drive down costs. 

Can you provide evidence for your assertion? What data is this based upon?

Common sense.  Like air travel, which was a novelty for the rich at one time, space flight (be it intercontinental, orbital, or whatnot) will start to attract the attention of the wealthy once it's shown to be affordable and relatively safe.

Unsubstantiated, and neither common nor sense.  There were existing destinations for air travelers to go to, that were served by other conveyances.  There is nothing equivalent for space.  A few rich may buy some joy rides just like the MIG-25 flights.  There is no commerce to drive the need for the masses to go.

Offline sferrin

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Re: Space X Interplanetary Transport System
« Reply #149 on: October 13, 2017, 05:59:24 am »
IIRC the Falcon contains ~20,000 sensors. The problem with their last failure was not all of them were on and being recorded.

Not true at all.  That is complete nonsense.  Do you know what the cost of that many sensors and the mass of the wiring would be?

Depends on the sensors and the wiring.  The YF-23 measured something like 6000+ parameters in real time and that was in the early 90s.
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