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Author Topic: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)  (Read 69616 times)

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2014, 06:34:55 pm »
The head of the Navy's strategic systems program talked about the Mk5 RV as having an accuracy that the aim point is inside the non-explosive crater. A new ICBM should definitely be this accurate.

Is that the baseline, ballistic only Mk5 RV? I ask because the estimated impact crater size for that class of RV is approximately 10m in radius.

From the CRS Report on Prompt Global Strike

Reentry Vehicle Research
In FY2003, the Navy requested funding for research on a new type of guided reentry vehicle that
could significantly improve the accuracy of the Trident II (D-5) missiles. This program, known as
the enhanced effectiveness (E2) initiative, included an initial funding request of $30 million, a
three-year study, and a full-scale flight test in early 2007.29 Congress rejected the initial funding
request in FY2003 and FY2004, but Lockheed Martin Corporation, the contractor pursuing the
study, continued with a low level of research into this system.

The E2 reentry vehicle would have integrated the existing inertial measurement unit (IMU)
guidance system (the system currently used to guide long-range ballistic missiles) with global
positioning system (GPS) technologies so that the reentry vehicle could receive guidance updates
during its flight.30 A standard MK4 reentry vehicle, which is the reentry vehicle deployed on
many Trident SLBMs, would be modified with a flap-based steering system, allowing it to
maneuver when approaching its target to improve its accuracy and increase its angle of
penetration. This steering system, which the Navy referred to as a “backpack extension,” would
increase the size of the reentry vehicle, making it comparable in size to the MK5 reentry vehicle
that is also deployed on Trident missiles. The E2 warhead could possibly have provided Trident
missiles with the accuracy to strike within 10 meters of their intended, stationary targets. This
accuracy would not only improve the lethality of the nuclear warheads but it would also permit
the missiles to destroy some types of targets with conventional warheads.31
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Sorry it was a modified Mk4  :o
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Charles W. Eliot

Offline Triton

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2014, 12:23:26 pm »
How many launch failures are expected with the current Minuteman III and the new Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)? How reliable are our ICBMs?

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2014, 12:28:51 pm »
How many launch failures are expected with the current Minuteman III and the new Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)? How reliable are our ICBMs?

The general consensus in the 80's was 90% launch rate or 10% failure. Now 25+ years later who knows. Part of the reason why we need a new missile that can be tested extensively with new modern more robust electronics and targeting/RV systems.
 
It worries me to this day that there has never been a launch from an operational silo in the US.
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

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Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2014, 10:43:24 pm »
It worries me to this day that there has never been a launch from an operational silo in the US.

Has any other nation carried out such a test?

Where?  When?
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 07:44:26 pm by Kadija_Man »

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2014, 12:18:18 am »
It worries me to this day that there has never been a launch from an operational silo in the US.

Has any other nation carried out such a test?

My understanding is that USSR/Russia has launched quite a few from operational silos as well as from their mobile systems like the SS-27, SS-24 (rail) and Yars, which while obviously different still displays, IMHO, a much closer to operational test than pulling a missile from ND and taking it Vandy.

Russia fires missile from operational base

One such example
Published: 2004 Dec. 22

Russian Strategic Missile Forces, RVSN, launched its largest Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, ICBM from an operational base in the south of the country.

The R-36M-2 Voevoda missile, capable of carrying 10 warheads, blasted off from a silo facility of the 13th missile regiment deployed near the town of Dombarovka in Orenburg Region at the border with Kazakhstan at 11:30 Moscow Time on Wednesday, December 22, 2004.
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

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Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2014, 09:24:52 pm »
From what I've been able to gather about that test is that it appears to actually have been unusual, even for the Russians up till then to launch from an operational site.  See here, to see what  I mean.

I can think of several problems with doing so, for any ICBM power.    One is that the sites usually aren't instrumented to allow tests to be fully assessed after the event (particularly if something goes wrong).  Another is that it effectively will give away the capabilities of operational sites - useful intelligence to any potential adversary.   Finally,  firing an operational missile could have potentially dangerous destabilising effects on the delicate relationship between competing nuclear powers, particularly in times of heightened tension.

Firing from a different test site could fix most of those problems.    Pulling a missile from an operational silo, transporting it to the test site and putting it into a test silo would allow testing of operational missiles for reliability, if that is your concern.

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2014, 12:14:06 pm »

I can think of several problems with doing so, for any ICBM power.    One is that the sites usually aren't instrumented to allow tests to be fully assessed after the event (particularly if something goes wrong).  Do you have any specific information on what capabilities Russian operational silos have or is this just speculation? Maybe several silos per field are instrumented for testing that's me speculating.
 
Another is that it effectively will give away the capabilities of operational sites - useful intelligence to any potential adversary. Between, Humint, Elint, arms control treaties and other national technical means I think we have a pretty good idea. If we don't it would make moot every arms control treaty. Russia launches from its' mobile platforms that my understanding are also 'operationally capable' systems.
 
Finally,  firing an operational missile could have potentially dangerous destabilising effects on the delicate relationship between competing nuclear powers, particularly in times of heightened tension. It might but a single missile launch probably not IMHO. For me when it comes to the Russians I would think the opposite, "Hey they're testing an ICBM from a test site to 'fool' us it's really a first strike"  Any missile launch would concern me good thing my finger was never anywhere near the button  ;D

Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

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Offline sferrin

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2014, 04:54:56 pm »
I keep waiting for them to launch an ICBM out of Hill AFB.  Drivers on I-15 would get a hell of a show.  ;D

"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2014, 12:51:01 am »

I can think of several problems with doing so, for any ICBM power.    One is that the sites usually aren't instrumented to allow tests to be fully assessed after the event (particularly if something goes wrong).
Do you have any specific information on what capabilities Russian operational silos have or is this just speculation? Maybe several silos per field are instrumented for testing that's me speculating.

Adding sufficient test instrumentation to every missile field would be expensive and ultimately rather wasteful as it would largely stand idle most of the time.  It's not as if they were every planning to regularly fire a missile from each missile field.

And no, I have no idea about how well instrumented Russian silos are but as the article I linked to made clear, in order to convert that one to a  commercial launching facility they had to add quite a lot to it, to make it adequate.
 
Quote
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Another is that it effectively will give away the capabilities of operational sites - useful intelligence to any potential adversary.
Between, Humint, Elint, arms control treaties and other national technical means I think we have a pretty good idea. If we don't it would make moot every arms control treaty. Russia launches from its' mobile platforms that my understanding are also 'operationally capable' systems.

It is the small details which can often be telling.   Those small details wouldn't be present if the tests are conducted from one centralised location.   As paranoid as the Soviets were, I think they'd have been unwilling to reveal more than they thought necessary to their potential adversaries.

Quote
Quote
Finally,  firing an operational missile could have potentially dangerous destabilising effects on the delicate relationship between competing nuclear powers, particularly in times of heightened tension.
It might but a single missile launch probably not IMHO. For me when it comes to the Russians I would think the opposite, "Hey they're testing an ICBM from a test site to 'fool' us it's really a first strike"  Any missile launch would concern me good thing my finger was never anywhere near the button  ;D

Yes, I'm rather glad of that as well.

The thing is, it could be perceived as a good time at which to undertake a first strike - first giving warning of the single launch, so reactions would be slower, even if for a few seconds.  Considering the hair-trigger both sides had, any advantage, any chance of destabilisation would need to be avoided.   Dr. Strangelove and Failsafe aren't as far from the truth as we might prefer to believe.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2014, 07:02:24 pm by Kadija_Man »

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2014, 10:14:55 am »
It worries me to this day that there has never been a launch from an operational silo in the US.

Has any other nation carried out such a test?

Answer - Yes
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

Charles W. Eliot

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2015, 04:09:52 pm »
GBSD RFI expected this fall

Boeing And Lockheed Martin Move Forward With ICBM Replacement

Posted: July 09, 2015


As the Air Force prepares to launch a competition to replace the Minuteman III, potential bidders Lockheed Martin and Boeing are participating in key research that will help shape the program's design.

Lockheed and Boeing detailed contributions to the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent system research in interviews this week. Along with Northrop Grumman, all the companies responded to the GBSD request for information in late March and are preparing for the draft request for proposals this fall.

The GBSD will recapitalize the infrastructure of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, or the Minuteman III, including its entire flight system, weapons system and command-and-control infrastructure. The Air Force is looking to renovate the existing launch control centers and reach initial operational capability by 2027.

Boeing recently completed a basic phase of the concept design architecture guidance, which reviewed technologies and modes of replacing the current guidance system on the ICBM, as well as GBSD, said Ted Kerzie, Boeing's director of strategic missile systems futures, in an interview with Inside the Air Force on July 7.

Both the RFI and recent industry days indicate the Air Force will award multiple contacts during the technology maturation and risk reduction phase. The Air Force plan will likely consist of two to three contractors for the TMRR phase, one to two during the engineering phase and a single provider for production and deployment, Kerzie said.

As part of the Air Force's market research, Lockheed is assisting with the planning for the reentry systems for GBSD. The company has also responded to the Air Force's broad agency announcement, which explores potential modularity modernization and technologies that would assist the Air Force in determining GBSD guidance requirements, according to a July 6 interview with Everett Thomas, director of Air Force strategic programs at Lockheed. The company is also exploring modernization for countermeasures.

Lockheed is also able to share the latest technology in their Navy programs with their customer sets in the Air Force, Thomas said.

Any austerity in the current budget should not affect plans for the new GBSD, according to Jim Chilton, vice president and general manager at Boeing Strategic Missile and Defense Systems, who participated in the July 7 interview.

"I think the Air Force is prudently going through a deliberate process," he said. "I believe it will move forward."

While the RFI stipulates the program will retain the silo basing mode, the Air Force is looking at mobile options for the future, said Kerzie. -- Leigh Giangreco
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Any speculation? It appears from reading between the lines we will get a brand new MMIII, in terms of dimensions, etc. with new technology.
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

Charles W. Eliot

Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #26 on: July 10, 2015, 09:08:19 pm »
It worries me to this day that there has never been a launch from an operational silo in the US.

Has any other nation carried out such a test?

Answer - Yes

When and where, please.

Offline bobbymike

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #27 on: July 11, 2015, 06:59:29 am »
Asked this question of Pavel Podvig of Russian Forces website fame, his answer, "Yes quite a few [tests from operational silos]"

http://russianforces.org/podvig/ )
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 09:16:26 am by Jemiba »
Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.

Charles W. Eliot

Offline sferrin

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2015, 10:04:39 am »
Asked this question of Pavel Podvig of Russian Forces website fame, his answer, "Yes quite a few [tests from operational silos]"

I don't see the big concern myself.  They're all built the same (with more test equipment in the Vandenburg silos I'd imagine).  If anything, the operational silos would be more reliable.  I'd love to see them launch a Minuteman III out of Hill AFB (3 silos there for testing).
"DARPA Hard"  It ain't what it use to be.

Offline Kadija_Man

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Re: Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD)
« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2015, 07:46:06 pm »
Asked this question of Pavel Podvig of Russian Forces website fame, his answer, "Yes quite a few [tests from operational silos]"

Who?  Never heard of him or the "Russian Forces website"...

Edit : See link in bobbymikes post
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 09:17:54 am by Jemiba »