Possible upcoming skirmish (or worse) in or around Korean Peninsula?

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Grey Havoc

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http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-threatens-to-wipe-out-south-island-2013-3

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2013/mar/12/analysts-any-north-korean-attack-would-likely-come/

http://www.businessinsider.com/war-north-and-south-korea-underground-2013-3
 
North Korea has FLYABLE jets ? are you sure ? From the link, one can say for sure they also have three missiles in their inventory.
 
:)

Seriously though, they are expending a lot of scare resources at the moment, too many for mere sabre rattling. I fear that North Korea is planning one or more serious incidents, to put South Korea and the US at a 'disadvantage', at the very least. To modify an old saying, North Korea seems to be planning for a 'Short Victorious Battle'. However things are likely to get out of hand.

And then there is the PRC. What are the new leaders true motives and intentions in all of this?
 
Some sources in South Korea report that last year there was an attempt to assassinate Kim Jong Un. So this "Show of Strength" is just to quieten national critics (old military generals and state officials).
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/southkorea/9941975/Hackers-paralyse-South-Korean-banks-and-broadcasters.html
 
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130321/DEFREG03/303210009/N-Korea-Threatens-U-S-Bases-Japan-Guam
 
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/03/logic-bomb-south-korea-attack/
 
Grey Havoc said:
Seriously though, they are expending a lot of scare resources at the moment, too many for mere sabre rattling. I fear that North Korea is planning one or more serious incidents, to put South Korea and the US at a 'disadvantage', at the very least. To modify an old saying, North Korea seems to be planning for a 'Short Victorious Battle'. However things are likely to get out of hand.

And then there is the PRC. What are the new leaders true motives and intentions in all of this?

I couldn’t imagine a more inaccurate interpretation of events. North Korea isn’t anywhere near their previous heights of sabre rattling. And rattling that sabre is a core component of their national ideology. This should be posted in the bar!
 
You seem very confident that North Korea are just rattling the sabre again. You do not think they will try a (intended) limited operation, such as grabbing the Yeonpyeongdo and Baengnyeong island chains?
 
Grey Havoc said:
You seem very confident that North Korea are just rattling the sabre again. You do not think they will try a (intended) limited operation, such as grabbing the Yeonpyeongdo and Baengnyeong island chains?

They have never tried such a massive operation since the armistice. Such an action would lead to total war.
 
The North Koreans may think they can get away with it, especially given the current occupants of the White House and the Blue House, for whom they have nothing but contempt.
 
Grey Havoc said:
The North Koreans may think they can get away with it, especially given the current occupants of the White House and the Blue House, for whom they have nothing but contempt.

No they don't and they always have contempt, its what makes them.
 
North Korea is prone to apocalyptic self-delusion. I don't think such an incident would lead to all-out global destruction, but a few nukes going off on the Korean peninsula might serve to remind the world that such shit is still important (let's hope that's not what it takes).
 
Is Pyongyang voicing its displeasure over the United Nations Security Council sanctions enacted after North Korea's third nuclear test by making threats and bluster?

The United States is urging the European Union to place sanctions on North Korea's Foreign Trade Bank which is North Korea's main foreign exchange institution today:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/us-korea-north-eu-idUSBRE92O0TU20130325

Does Pyongyang really want war? Or relief from sanctions?
 
Triton said:
Does Pyongyang really want war? Or relief from sanctions?

What does Pyongyang want? They want the international community to respect them enough to send Michael Jordan, not Dennis Rodman.
 
Triton said:
Is Pyongyang voicing its displeasure over the United Nations Security Council sanctions enacted after North Korea's third nuclear test by making threats and bluster?

The United States is urging the European Union to place sanctions on North Korea's Foreign Trade Bank which is North Korea's main foreign exchange institution today:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/us-korea-north-eu-idUSBRE92O0TU20130325

Does Pyongyang really want war? Or relief from sanctions?

The little 29 year old pip squeak on the throne in Pyongyang what's to impress the octogenarian marshals of his father's regime enough so, in a society where age does matter, they won't depose him.
 
chuck4 said:
The little 29 year old pip squeak on the throne in Pyongyang what's to impress the octogenarian marshals of his father's regime enough so, in a society where age does matter, they won't depose him.

In North Korea being a descendent of Kim the First is the most important thing. Their national ideology was copied page by page from the Imperial Japanese and the Kims are the Emperors. The loyalty the Koreans have to Kim the Third is difficult for the rest of us to understand. The sabre rattling is all about how the Kims present themselves to the rest of North Korea as being the only people in the world brilliant enough to defend their childish purity from the evils of the rest of the world (no sh*t, this is what they think).

If they need to up the ante with a bit of live fire then they will do what they’ve always done: use asymmetrical attacks. They won’t risk a full scale conventional war until the USA no longer plays a role in Korea. The dispute over the Northern Limit Line has been ongoing for 15 years. North Korea finds it a convenient locus for their militancy without the risk of pressing the wrong button on the DMZ or in the South Korean homeland (unlike their efforts in the 60s and 70s).
 
why have sanctions against North Korea when the US. and UK. are happily ignoring such UN. mandates elsewhere, eg. Syria ? :-\
 
So you're saying, Abraham, that North Korea's current behavior has nothing to do with United Nations sanctions?
 
Triton said:
So you're saying, Abraham, that North Korea's current behavior has nothing to do with United Nations sanctions?

It has something to do with it. His initial provacations was mainly to impress his minions of his toughness. If the rest of the world had done nothing, then he would have accomplished his goal. But since UN did impose sanctions, it would crimp his style in the eyes of his minions if he did nothing in response. So he needs to provoke some more in order to show he is uncowed, pugnacious leader he wants to be taken to be.

He is also probably also pretty sure the Chinese will protect him if things look like it would get out of hand. But I am not so sure the Chinese are sure that Kim won't drag them down with Kim into a major war. It is as much a hidden game of brinksmenship between Kim and China as it is a public game of brinksmenship between kim and the ROK and US.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9953874/North-Korea-puts-rocket-units-on-alert-to-attack-US.html
 
Triton said:
So you're saying, Abraham, that North Korea's current behavior has nothing to do with United Nations sanctions?

No, of course not. But the behaviour of the DPRK to any foreign affairs issue follows this line of conduct. The North Koreans actually openly talk and boast about how thier posturing and asymetric threats and attacks result in the rest of the world paying them tribute. But this does not mean they are going to go to total war. They have suffered a lot worse than the UN sanctions over nuclear weapons tests.
 
Has this situation gotten out of hand?

"North Korea orders rockets on standby to hit US bases - state media"
March 28, 2013

Source:
http://rt.com/news/north-korea-rockets-us-bases-021/

Pyongyang has ordered rocket units be put on standby to fire on US bases in the South Pacific. “The time has come to settle accounts with the US imperialists in view of the prevailing situation,” North Korean leader declared, according to state media.

It follows a US B-2 flyover of South Korea that saw dummy ammunition dropped as part of a joint military drill Thursday.

The North Korean leader and army marshal Kim Jong Un declared that “the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK would react to the US nuclear blackmail with a merciless nuclear attack, and war of aggression with an all-out war of justice,” according to KCNA.

In the case of another US "provocation" like the B2 flyover, a North Korean propaganda release says, the Korean People's Army "should mercilessly strike the US mainland, their stronghold, their military bases in the operational theaters in the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in south Korea."
 
I don't think it really has any rockets that can hit US bases in the pacific in anything more than a purely theoretical way.
 
Abraham Gubler said:
Triton said:
Has this situation gotten out of hand?
Media war does not equal real war.

exactly. (no matter how much North Korea tries to confuse the two)

Be fun to see what happens when North Korea runs out of scary words... and by "fun to see" I mean "absolutely nothing will happen"

Its going to get to the point where even they think they need to actually do something or just shut up for a while, and they aren't going to do anything so that kind of narrows it down.

I wouldn't mind calling their bluff though.

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The US military is winding down in Afghanistan, looking to reverse budget cuts and has a huge combat experienced force with nothing to do... No better time than the present.
 
Apparently...WAR IS ONLY HOURS AWAY!........ :eek:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301127/Stay-away-North-Korea--war-HOURS-AWAY-Kim-Jong-Uns-chilling-message-British-tour-boss.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

cheers,
Robin.
 
And North Korea has unveiled their plans to ATTACK THE MAINLAND UNITED STATES!!!! ::)

http://www.nknews.org/2013/03/breaking-north-korean-photo-reveals-u-s-mainland-strike-plan/

(By cleverly drawing rhumb lines on a Mercator map. I guess the Great Successor has never heard of Great Circles.)
 
Maybe someone needs to tell Kim Jong Un that the recent remake of Red Dawn with North Koreans as the bad guys was just fiction and not real... ;D
 
The two cents of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov...

"Russia warns US, North Korea muscle-flexing slipping into ‘vicious cycle'"

Source:
http://rt.com/news/north-korea-vicious-cycle-russia-072/

With North Korea placing its ballistic arsenal on high alert targeting American bases and the US tenaciously increasing military presence in the region, the whole situation risks “spiraling out of control” soon, warned Russia’s foreign minister.

Both North Korea and the US bear responsibility for the recent substantial escalation of tensions, Russia’s Sergey Lavrov said, calling on “all sides not to flex their military muscle.”

"We are concerned that alongside the adequate, collective reaction of the UN Security Council, unilateral action is being taken around North Korea that is increasing military activity,” Lavrov added, apparently referring to US plans to boost missile defense against the North, the joint US-South Korean contingency plan in the event of an attack as well as their recent military drills.

In a noteworthy contrast to all the previous war games, this time American B-52 bombers flew over 10,000 kilometers to stage a mock bombing of Korean soil, in a move that US officials confirmed to be unprecedented.

Following this “reckless provocation” North Korean military command held an urgent overnight meeting during which the state’s supreme leader Kim Jong-un signed a decree placing the Strategic Rocket Force on standby.

“The situation could simply get out of control,” Sergey Lavrov told journalists on Friday, calling for a resumption of a six-party discussion of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal within the framework of country’s international obligations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovmeeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Kozhara in Moscow.(RIA Novosti / Vladimir Pesnya)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovmeeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Kozhara in Moscow.(RIA Novosti / Vladimir Pesnya)

While N. Korea has firmly pledged to “settle accounts with the US imperialists” and “mercilessly strike the US mainland, their stronghold, their military bases” in case of any further provocations, US officials seemingly do not consider the threat to be as real as the democratic republic is trying to present it to be.

The threats towards the US are only hurting North Korea itself as well as its people, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Friday.

“The bellicose rhetoric emanating from North Korea only deepens that nation's isolation,” Earnest said, adding that North’s unconditional renouncement of nuclear arms is the only clear path to resolve the situation.

Despite all the tensions, the United States is capable of defending its interests in the region, Earnest added.
Propaganda or serious threat?

Military experts agree that North Korea is at least several years from building a nuclear warhead or a missile capable of reaching the mainland US, which makes the threats, at this point, groundless.

However, a detailed plan of a nuclear strike on the US mainland can be clearly seen behind the North Korean leader on photos published in national newspaper. Such a demonstration of nuclear capabilities is likely aimed at an internal audience, in support of the idea of “sweeping away the US aggressors.”

Nevertheless, US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel admitted on Thursday that “every provocative, bellicose word and action” of Kim Jong-un has to be taken seriously.

Earlier this month Washington decided to address North Korea's faster-than-anticipated progress in nuclear weapons development, announcing that the US will have 14 missile interceptors up and running by 2017, even abandoning a key part of its Eastern European missile defense plan in order to curb the threat from North Korea.
 
Russia is going to play "the cooler" tell both sides to take a chill pill and arrange for negotiations so everyone saves face.
 
TaiidanTomcat said:
Russia is going to play "the cooler" tell both sides to take a chill pill and arrange for negotiations so everyone saves face.


They'd better hurry up. NK rhetorics spiraled off way too fast this morning.


http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/8188906.html


A.
 
antigravite said:
TaiidanTomcat said:
Russia is going to play "the cooler" tell both sides to take a chill pill and arrange for negotiations so everyone saves face.


They'd better hurry up. NK rhetorics spiraled off way too fast this morning.


http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/8188906.html


A.

I look forward to the declaration of "super duper" war in 24 hours. then "mega war" soon after. They can call it whatever they want, the actual combat status remains the same as it had been for sometime now.
 
On the other hand, neither the US or SK armed forces are in the best of shape at the moment. And I strongly suspect that the new PRC leadership wouldn't mind at all if North Korea manages to take the 'UN Forces' down a peg or three.
 
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