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Author Topic: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...  (Read 13338 times)

Offline lancer21

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2013, 03:49:14 pm »
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Sorry, but why still these "s...d" arguments like the J-20 looks big so it has to be a bomber !???  :(" title="Angry" class="smiley">
They are to be ignored only imo (especially considering  they come from  the "China-hate" mafia) .   Anyway i for one always thought it would have been great if indeed things like Tu-22M and say MiG-31 deals would have actually proceeded in the early nineties. The pros and cons are debatable ( especially costs), but i still think it would have given an even bigger boost to China's defense and aerospace industry.

Offline 2IDSGT

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2013, 06:10:40 pm »
Possible Backfire purchase also mentioned here (article mostly about Su-35 deal).

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130124/DEFREG02/301240021/Russia-China-Working-Deal-Despite-Property-Rights-Trouble?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

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...Cheng said this is an “enormous and fundamental strategic shift.” If these sales are confirmed, including the possible sale of Russian Tupolev supersonic Tu-22M3 Backfire long-range strategic bombers to China, it “suggests either an ongoing strategic alignment between Russia and China, with a renewed push since Putin’s re-election, or Russian weakness, wherein they are bargaining with one of the few chips — that is, advanced weapons,” he said.

The Tu-22M3 has a combat radius of 2,410 kilometers and, with refueling, a combat range of 6,800 kilometers, which places Guam, for the first time, well within striking distance of China’s 8th and 9th Bomber Divisions. Tu-22M3s based in the Lanzhou military region will have command over all of India, most of the Indian Ocean and parts of the Middle East...

Offline Abraham Gubler

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2013, 06:18:14 pm »
Possible Backfire purchase also mentioned here (article mostly about Su-35 deal).

Only in the context of the opinions of:
 
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said Dean Cheng, a research fellow with the Heritage Foundation.

Absolutely no news confirmation in this article just more chatter about "what if".
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Offline Deino

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2013, 09:33:29 pm »
Possible Backfire purchase also mentioned here (article mostly about Su-35 deal).


Possible only in another parallel.universe ....

Hey ... There is simply no need to think any longer if or if not ...





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MOSCOW. Jan 24 (Interfax-AVN) - The Russian arms export agency Rosoboronexport has not received and has not considered any proposals from China on buying Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, Rosoboronexport spokesman Vyacheslav Davidenko told Interfax-AVN on Thursday.

"No negotiations on this issue have been held or are being held," Davidenko said in commenting on media reports referring to Chinese websites claiming that China may buy 26 Tu-22M3 planes from Russia for $1.5 billion.

Rosoboronexport has no information on this score, Davidenko said.

Chinese websites may publish almost anything, but this information "most often is not worth any attention," he added.

Vasily Kashin, an expert from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), said earlier that reports suggesting that Russia could sell a shipment of Tu-22M3s looked doubtful to him.

"At the present time, the sale of new Tu-22M3 bombers to China, of which media have reported, is hardly physically possible. The manufacturing of these planes was stopped in 1993 and has not been resumed. Nor are the NK-25 engines with which this plane was equipped being manufactured. The resumption of the production of these planes after a 20-year pause would require gigantic investments and years of hard work if it is technically possible at all," Kashin said.

"Rumors suggesting that Russia is selling a shipment of Tu-22M3 bombers to China have regularly appeared on the Internet in China and in Western media outlets over the past ten years. As far as I know, China was earlier interested in these planes, but negotiations did not reach any result," Kashin said.

"Russia could technically ship only old-made Tu-22M3s to the Chinese," he said.

"But even in this case, this would involve a lot of work on their maintenance and re-equipment to make them compatible with Chinese weapons, communications, control systems and so on. And even so China would get an old plane with old engines at a very significant price," he said.

"The project looks even more doubtful considering that China is currently pursuing a program of building modernized H-6K bombers, for which it has been making large-scale purchases of D-30KP2 engines from Russia," he said.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2013, 10:21:41 pm by Deino »
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Offline 2IDSGT

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2013, 10:35:01 pm »
@Deino
I love your posts; but if the Chinese were willing to go to the trouble of restoring the Varyag (which was a rusting hulk), I see no reason why they wouldn't go to the trouble of restoring a few of the Tu-22s that Russia has in storage.  Let us "live and see" what happens next.

Offline Deino

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2013, 01:59:31 am »
Thanks, but honestly why do You want to continue a discussion on something completely speculative !???
 
Rosoboronexport has denied any talks nor the will to sell, from official Chinese sources You get nothing which does not mean there is anything going on, the PLAAF has no requirement for the Tu-22 and seen as a source of technology a dated design with dated engines ...  :-\ . All these reports are posted by some more or less unreliable sources, which were - as so often - immedeately picked up by others to spread their fear of a mighty PLAAF, Chinese hordes, which will overran Australia  :o ;D  ... Come on !
 
Simply forget it even if the Chinese maybe have the capability to do so, even if the Backfire is a nice aircraft, even if .... if, if, if. Much too may ifs if You ask me.
 
Deino
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Offline chuck4

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2013, 07:27:02 am »
@Deino
I love your posts; but if the Chinese were willing to go to the trouble of restoring the Varyag (which was a rusting hulk), I see no reason why they wouldn't go to the trouble of restoring a few of the Tu-22s that Russia has in storage.  Let us "live and see" what happens next.


Gimme a break, Let's "wait and see" if something utterly improbably will happen, in the meantime spread panick and alarm as if it has a real probability of happening.

Offline SlowMan

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2013, 08:57:29 am »
@Deino
I love your posts; but if the Chinese were willing to go to the trouble of restoring the Varyag (which was a rusting hulk), I see no reason why they wouldn't go to the trouble of restoring a few of the Tu-22s that Russia has in storage.  Let us "live and see" what happens next.
The deal is the whole production line + license to resume production in China, not the existing stock stored away.

the PLAAF has no requirement for the Tu-22 and seen as a source of technology a dated design with dated engines
China has nothing comparable, and J-20 won't be ready for the anti-access role for a long time. This is China's real anti-access weapon, not that DF-21D thing that would never hit a moving carrier.


Offline PaulMM (Overscan)

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2013, 09:51:34 am »

Its not real. Maybe in 1997 when the Tu-22M production line closed and this rumour first surfaced it was considered on one or both sides. It didn't happen. There are no credible sources for any of this, just a post on a Chinese website from 2010 that is clearly a fanpost.


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Offline Deino

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2013, 01:58:33 pm »
The deal is the whole production line + license to resume production in China, not the existing stock stored away.


Sorry .... But You don't want or can't understand: there is no deal .... Regardless of what You want.


Deine
He was my North, my South, my East and West,
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I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.
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For nothing now can ever come to any good.
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Offline PaulMM (Overscan)

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2013, 02:23:01 pm »
The fact that Norman Friedman and some right wing thinktanks got punked by some Chinese fansite is neither here nor there. Its just not true.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2013, 02:29:48 pm by PaulMM (Overscan) »
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Offline chuck4

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2013, 02:27:44 pm »
China has nothing comparable, and J-20 won't be ready for the anti-access role for a long time. This is China's real anti-access weapon, not that DF-21D thing that would never hit a moving carrier.

China has nothing comparable to the Tu-95 or Buran shuttle either.   You are slacking in not having yet claimed that the Chinese are after these too to hurt us

Offline PaulMM (Overscan)

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2013, 02:38:53 pm »
H-6G with YJ-12 supersonic AShM will do everything a Tu-22M can do.

If you want to get speculative, what about a homing seeker on the H-6K's CL-10K ALCM? That extends the strike radius 2500km....
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Offline Grey Havoc

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2013, 03:28:12 pm »
When?      As far back as 1997 the US DOD had publicly proclaimed itself aware of the existence of the project that would ultimately lead to the J-20.   At the time intelligence community called it the J-XX project.  Around 2006 The DOD said it believed the Chinese can successfully pull off a indiginous g5 project.  The Chinese themselves announced when the prototype construction on the j-20 started around 2008.

A certain Mr. Gates comes to mind.

As to the current debate, I'll reserve my judgement for the moment.
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Offline chuck4

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Re: China DOESN'T buy the Backfire...
« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2013, 09:50:50 pm »
When?      As far back as 1997 the US DOD had publicly proclaimed itself aware of the existence of the project that would ultimately lead to the J-20.   At the time intelligence community called it the J-XX project.  Around 2006 The DOD said it believed the Chinese can successfully pull off a indiginous g5 project.  The Chinese themselves announced when the prototype construction on the j-20 started around 2008.

A certain Mr. Gates comes to mind.

As to the current debate, I'll reserve my judgement for the moment.


The mr. Gates in question may not have pinned the first flight of j-20 down to the very same day he would visit china, but he got the estimate to within a few month.   But prior to that visit mr Gates had been  remarkably well informed about when the Chinese expects the j-20 to enter service because the head of Chinese air force very helpfully announced the j-20's IOC date of 2017-2018 during a televised interview several month prior to j-20's first flight.     


Given an expected IOC Date of 2017-2018, Mr. Gates' estimate that the Chinese would have around 150 stealth fighters in service by 2020 seem very reasonable.   How long after f-22's IOC did the 100th raptor enter service?


The irony is while US SecDef was well informed about the status of Chinese stealth fighter development, he may not have been as well informed about the American stealth fighter program.   In the same sentence where he made the reasonable estimate of 150 Chinese stealth fighter in service by 2020, he also estimated 900-1000 American stealth fighters in service by the same date.   With f-35 IOC likely to be pushed to 2018-2019, that looks increasingly over optimistic.