Yellow Palace
ACCESS: Top Secret
- Joined
- 5 May 2007
- Messages
- 1,035
- Reaction score
- 1,694
There's been a lot of discussion lately of the 1957 Defence White Paper and the desirability of the RAF replacing its fighter force with a single type. One of the types mentioned is the P.1121. So, what does that look like?
First, a disclaimer. I'm not advocating that this is a better, or more affordable, course of action than was pursued in OTL, or even a particularly likely one. I'm merely exploring what it might look like.
Let's start with some real dates. The P.1121 brochure was presented to the RAF on 12 June 1956. It is therefore impossible for procurement to begin any earlier than this. In that brochure, Hawker claimed that with an instruction to proceed in August 1956, they could have a prototype flying in April 1958 and the aircraft entering service in December 1958.
Given that the English Electric P.1B prototype first flew in April 1957 - a year earlier than Hawker's estimate for the P.1121 - and the production Lightning wasn't being delivered to squadrons until June 1960, I think it's reasonable to suggest that Hawker's projected timeline was optimistic. I can't find a date when the P.1B prototypes were ordered, but the P.1B development batch and the operational F.1 both took about three years from order to first flight.
So. Let's suppose that Air Ministry is convinced by Hawker's arguments for a single-seat fighter, designed primarily for the air superiority role but adaptable to others, and suitable for use in 'small wars'. Such a type would also be a more capable interceptor than the F.23/49 or F.177D, though falling short of the eventual OR.329 type. It is therefore ordered _in place of_ the Lightning in November 1956. This is probably as late as you can order the P.1121 and get it into service as a fighter, rather than a nuclear strike aircraft. It also means killing the Lightning we know.
Based on realistic development timelines, it's still a long way from flying when the 1957 Defence White Paper is published. It was ordered less than six months previously. But the RAF makes a case that the P.1121, as well as being able to serve as the 'last manned fighter' for air defence, would also be essential for defending what remains of the Empire.
The first flight of the prototype takes place in November 1959, powered by an Olympus 21R. An interceptor/air superiority fighter is seen as a priority, but the lengthy development timeline means it doesn't fly until April 1962, and entry into service begins in September that year. This aircraft is probably about equivalent to the Lightning F.3, but may include the automatic intercept system not fitted to that type and probably has drop tanks. It is followed into service by a T.2 conversion trainer, the FGA.3 fighter-bomber in 1965, and the FR.4 fighter-reconnaissance in 1963 or 1964, based on timelines for development of the Mirage III variants. My guess is that the FGA.3 and FR.4 are different enough from the F.1 to warrant a dedicated T.5 trainer.
Production of these types is post-Spotswood, so we probably get something like:
At this point, there are enough AI.23 sets produced (at least 373 for the F.1 and FGA.3) that the rumoured CW illuminator from the 200th unit becomes possible. It's therefore reasonable to imagine an F.6 with avionics improvements, including the incorporation of the improved AI.23 and a SARH missile to complement/replace Red Top. Maybe even the more powerful Olympus 22R as well. Given the timelines, this is probably going to be the 1962 proposal to fit Red Top with an R.530 seeker. These aircraft are probably produced by upgrading selected F.1s rather than newbuild.
Export is going to be challenging. This is a lot more aircraft than a Lightning or Mirage III, and I can't see many of the countries that purchased either being particularly keen. A good sales effort in Australia might bear fruit, but I wouldn't hold my breath. A simplified day-only version - effectively an equivalent to the Mirage 5 - might be a little more appealing to some of the Middle Eastern customers that traditionally looked towards the UK for procurement, but it's still a lot of aircraft. Ironically, it might actually push Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to buy F-104s, F-5s or Mirages instead of their Lightnings.
Now, what does all this mean?
The positive is, the UK also has a domestically-developed Mach 2 aircraft capable of most tactical roles. Which is nice.
On the down side, we've killed the Lightning. So the RAF doesn't get a Mach 2 interceptor at all until two years later than OTL. We probably also have killed the Hunter FGA.9 and FR.10 - in that case, the Venom, Meteor and Swift have all been forced to run on for another five years or so, though we're also skipping the P.1154 and going straight from museum pieces to Mach 2. The P.1127 is also going to be stillborn, and that's one of the great successes of the UK aviation industry after 1945. That's a big change, and definitely not a good one. So that's a lot of negative.
Overall, I like the P.1121. I wish it worked for the UK. But the timelines just don't work out, and the opportunity cost is too great.
First, a disclaimer. I'm not advocating that this is a better, or more affordable, course of action than was pursued in OTL, or even a particularly likely one. I'm merely exploring what it might look like.
Let's start with some real dates. The P.1121 brochure was presented to the RAF on 12 June 1956. It is therefore impossible for procurement to begin any earlier than this. In that brochure, Hawker claimed that with an instruction to proceed in August 1956, they could have a prototype flying in April 1958 and the aircraft entering service in December 1958.
Given that the English Electric P.1B prototype first flew in April 1957 - a year earlier than Hawker's estimate for the P.1121 - and the production Lightning wasn't being delivered to squadrons until June 1960, I think it's reasonable to suggest that Hawker's projected timeline was optimistic. I can't find a date when the P.1B prototypes were ordered, but the P.1B development batch and the operational F.1 both took about three years from order to first flight.
So. Let's suppose that Air Ministry is convinced by Hawker's arguments for a single-seat fighter, designed primarily for the air superiority role but adaptable to others, and suitable for use in 'small wars'. Such a type would also be a more capable interceptor than the F.23/49 or F.177D, though falling short of the eventual OR.329 type. It is therefore ordered _in place of_ the Lightning in November 1956. This is probably as late as you can order the P.1121 and get it into service as a fighter, rather than a nuclear strike aircraft. It also means killing the Lightning we know.
Based on realistic development timelines, it's still a long way from flying when the 1957 Defence White Paper is published. It was ordered less than six months previously. But the RAF makes a case that the P.1121, as well as being able to serve as the 'last manned fighter' for air defence, would also be essential for defending what remains of the Empire.
The first flight of the prototype takes place in November 1959, powered by an Olympus 21R. An interceptor/air superiority fighter is seen as a priority, but the lengthy development timeline means it doesn't fly until April 1962, and entry into service begins in September that year. This aircraft is probably about equivalent to the Lightning F.3, but may include the automatic intercept system not fitted to that type and probably has drop tanks. It is followed into service by a T.2 conversion trainer, the FGA.3 fighter-bomber in 1965, and the FR.4 fighter-reconnaissance in 1963 or 1964, based on timelines for development of the Mirage III variants. My guess is that the FGA.3 and FR.4 are different enough from the F.1 to warrant a dedicated T.5 trainer.
Production of these types is post-Spotswood, so we probably get something like:
- 3 prototypes
- 20 development batch aircraft, of near-production standard
- 218 F.1 to equip ten squadrons; this is as per Lightning production.
- 44 T.2, again as per Lightning production.
- 155 FGA.3 to equip eight 12 UE fighter ground attack squadrons, two each in the UK, Germany, the Middle East, and the Far East. Pleasingly, the same as the number of P.1154 planned.
- 40 FR.4 to equip two 12 UE fighter reconnaissance squadrons in Germany.
- 39 T.5, based on the ratio of Lightning fighters to trainers.
At this point, there are enough AI.23 sets produced (at least 373 for the F.1 and FGA.3) that the rumoured CW illuminator from the 200th unit becomes possible. It's therefore reasonable to imagine an F.6 with avionics improvements, including the incorporation of the improved AI.23 and a SARH missile to complement/replace Red Top. Maybe even the more powerful Olympus 22R as well. Given the timelines, this is probably going to be the 1962 proposal to fit Red Top with an R.530 seeker. These aircraft are probably produced by upgrading selected F.1s rather than newbuild.
Export is going to be challenging. This is a lot more aircraft than a Lightning or Mirage III, and I can't see many of the countries that purchased either being particularly keen. A good sales effort in Australia might bear fruit, but I wouldn't hold my breath. A simplified day-only version - effectively an equivalent to the Mirage 5 - might be a little more appealing to some of the Middle Eastern customers that traditionally looked towards the UK for procurement, but it's still a lot of aircraft. Ironically, it might actually push Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to buy F-104s, F-5s or Mirages instead of their Lightnings.
Now, what does all this mean?
The positive is, the UK also has a domestically-developed Mach 2 aircraft capable of most tactical roles. Which is nice.
On the down side, we've killed the Lightning. So the RAF doesn't get a Mach 2 interceptor at all until two years later than OTL. We probably also have killed the Hunter FGA.9 and FR.10 - in that case, the Venom, Meteor and Swift have all been forced to run on for another five years or so, though we're also skipping the P.1154 and going straight from museum pieces to Mach 2. The P.1127 is also going to be stillborn, and that's one of the great successes of the UK aviation industry after 1945. That's a big change, and definitely not a good one. So that's a lot of negative.
Overall, I like the P.1121. I wish it worked for the UK. But the timelines just don't work out, and the opportunity cost is too great.
