Post Arrow Canadian Aviation Industry

To this day Canada has a significant aviation industry, Bombardier group claims to being the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, but with the notable exception of a military aircraft industry. Which as our Canadian members are likely to point can be blamed, to the CF-105 cancellation back in 1959.

Arguably the claim holds a degree of truth hence the obvious question is how much. So lets posit, George Drew doesn't catch meningitis, he remains at the head of Progressive Conservative's and leads them to one more electoral defeat at the hands of the Liberals in 1957. CF-105 goes into production for the RCAF by the early 1960s as originally expected.

So how does the Canadian aviation industry evolve from there? The Arrow likely gets some export orders but being a dedicated interceptor, at least at this stage and big and relatively complex I wouldn't expect that many of them. Nevertheless a domestic Canadian aircraft industry not just making but also designing fighter aircraft is still there. Do we see Canada remaining in the fighter design business either on its own with the NFA in the 1970s becoming a domestic design, or in partnership with Britain and Europe? Or is CF-105 even in success the last of it?

It is interesting to think that it might have left us just enough infrastructure to enter the EFA program...


If our emphases had been different we might have seen DHC remain stronger (and thus have more STOL aircraft in the forces).

Politically, the Canadian military procurement organization had a major aversion to anything European through the last half of the 20th century, and it continues somewhat today. (In part, I base that on ten years working in Canada for a European aerospace conglomerate.) I can't see government money going into anything like EFA. Also politically, the US was not big on multinational development projects in this time frame (apart from the very unique Harrier). A post Arrow Canadian industry would have to rely on local procurement. That, in turn, would rely on local politics. Historically, the Arrow program was a high water mark in government funding, it was all down hill from there.

IMHO, it would take a lot more than changing one politician in the 1950s to keep Canadian military aircraft development alive.

Well, there are several possibilities:
- Focusing on indigenous projects
- Engaging in joint programs with European countries (or other medium sized countries)
- Buying ready made products from European supplies (or other countries)
- Buying primarily U.S. products (with an aversion to anything European)

If one looks at Canadian history, prior to 1960 we'd produced a mixture of British designs (most WWII production), Canadian designs (e.g. CF-100), co-developed or license produced designs (e.g. Canadair Sabre).

After the cancellation of the Avro Arrow we've purchased solely aircraft of of American production lines.

So, before 1965 we used a variety of procurement options, after 1965 our strategy has been to simply buy American. That is a big change that coincided with the cancellation of the Arrow. It is also a political change in Canada's approach to the military (shifting away from the Commonwealth and domestic production).

If this arbitrary shift didn't happen - then any of a variety of different strategies might have been possible.

P.S.
The exceptions are:
- The CT-114 Tutors and the CC-109 Cosmopolitan which were ordered a couple of years after the Arrow was canceled.

- A couple dozen examples of domestically produced transport aircraft: The CL-215 & CL-415, the CC-115 (which was designed to an American requirement), and a pair of Dash-7s.

- We've also recently leased a few trainers from European sources and ordered the CH-113 Labrador, CC-150 Polaris.

If our emphases had been different we might have seen DHC remain stronger (and thus have more STOL aircraft in the forces).

I think this is where the future of Canada as a player in the military aircraft field would have been. For other stuff, there would be subcontracting for offsets on military contracts.

Point of departure 1942, Prime Minister MacKenzie-King tires of signing letters of condolence to the families of dead Canadian airmen. He is appalled at the high casualty rates suffered by Canadian air crew assigned to RAF Bomber Command ... as bad as Great War trench-fighters. Recognizing that this might lead to a second Conscription crisis, MK forbids the BCATP sending any more Canadian graduates to RAF Bomber Command. Canadian bomber crew members already in the training pipeline are assigned to RCAF Ferry Command or RCAF Coastal Command. By 1944, RCAF CC routinely re-fuel in Iceland as they close the mid-Atlantic gap to U-boats. U-boat casualties soar while merchant ship sinkings dwindle.
MK orders Victory Aircraft to quit building Lancaster bombers, so they switch to building Avro York freighters ... by the hundreds. York Mark 2 are powered by Pratt & Whitney R-1830
radial engines, while York Mark 3 grow nose-wheels and narrow cargo hatches under the tail. The definitive York Mark 4 gets P&W R-2800 engines and a full-width cargo ramp under the tail. Elsie May MacGill is rumoured to be "the power behind the throne" during late-model York production.

After Elsie left Canadian Car and Foundry (Thunder Bay, Ontario) almost goes bankrupt building Curtiss Helldivers, but recovers by building Budd Conestogas under license.

With so much trans-Atlantic flying experience, Trans Canada Airways soon dominates the growing North Atlantic trade, initially with North Stars, then Britannias and Comets.
Post war, Hawker-Siddeley still buys Victory Aircraft and builds CF-100 interceptors. CF-100 Mark 6 test-fire Velvet Glove rockets before development shifts to the CF-105 Arrow. The RCAF tones down its demands so that a small batch of Arrow Mark 1 fly with American engines, missiles, fire control systems and 3,000 psi hydraulic systems. Arrow Mark 2 are powered by Orenda Iroquois engines, while the Mark 4 fires Canadian-made missiles. The definitive Arrow Mark 6 uses a Canadian-Marconi fire control system to launch Canadian-made missiles. Australia, New Zealand and Iran buy interceptor and recce-equipped Arrows.
RCAF squadrons flying out of Prince Rupert B.C. and Goose Bay do such a good job of "greeting" Bear bombers that the Alaska Air National Guard invite them for frequent "exchange visits."

Meanwhile, RCAF Transport Squadrons get a handful of Jetliners, which they use for training navigators, radar operators and flying VIPs. A few millionaire executives also buy Jetliners for personnel transport. Jetliners improve with successive Marks until they dominate medium-haul airline routes in North America.

Meanwhile deHavilland of Canada introduce insect-resistant glues and glass fibre reinforcements to late-model Mosquitos. DHC sells a batch of nose-wheel equipped Mosquitos to the Chinese National Air Force. DHC builds fibreglass fuselage shells for the parent company's first three generations of jet fighters.

Post-war, DHC refuses to license the parent company to build Chipmunks but still sells almost a thousand to other Commonwealth air forces.
DHC-2 Beavers prove wildly popular with bush pilots, but are soon over-shadowed by Fairchild Huskies. Husky Mark 1s are disappointing, Robert Noordyn helps work out the bugs (most notably doubling the size of the vertical fin). Later Marks of Huskies roar off short strips and lakes behind war-surplus R-1830 engines. Noordyn is rewarded with lucrative sub-contracts when Fairchild gets too busy building C-119s and C-123 for the Korean War.
DHC struggles to sell significant numbers of Otters until they bolt a P&WC PT6A turboprop on the front, then sales climb faster than an over-loaded Otter climbing out of a steep mountain valley! DHC adds a nose-wheel and Canadian-Marconi moving-map display just as the over-night courier business takes off during the 1980s.
DHC sells a few Cariboos to the US Army. After they LAPES thousands of tons of ammo into Khe Sanh, the USMC says "If the Army does not buy Buffalos, we will." During the 1960s and 1970s, retired RCAF pilots and Canadian Airborne Regiment instructors do a booming business teaching Third World air forces how to operate their Buffalos.

Post war, Canadair builds several batches of North Stars (DC-4) but after a RR Merlin powered prototype catches fire , they concentrate on radial engines. North Stars are succeeded by Bristol Britanias on the Canadair production line. Only the first batch of Argus ASW airplanes get radial engines. Later Argus get turboprop engines and pressurized cabins to reduce transit times to the submarine hunting grounds out in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. So many RCAF Argus crew members write gay love letters to Russian submariners that some of those “love letters” fall into the hands of their wives and girlfriends back home in Russia. Soviet submariners’ (already miserable) divorce rates double and they have to frequently stop in mid-ocean to replenish vodka supplies. Australia, New Zealand and several NATO nations add Arguses to their Aero Naval squadrons.