Another Malaysian Airliner down - in East Ukraine

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Orionblamblam said:
Avimimus said:
Russian incursions presumably...

As a general rule of thumb, you can expect "rebels" to be a bit more trigger happy and chuckleheaded than regular military. And while the Ukrainian military is not doubt leery of Russian overflights, you'd expect them to be hesitant to pull the trigger since that would give Putin an excuse.

Assuming the Russians actually want to invade (dubious) and that the Ukrainian military is in much better trained and equipped then the separatists (dubious). Desperation and poor C&C might be an argument. However, it isn't like the U.S. military hasn't also shot down airliners.

Yes, it could be the Ukrainian Rebels, it could be the Ukrainian Government, it could be a Russian battery, it could've even been a mechanical failure or a luggage bomb... we don't know.

The fact is that this is all pointless speculation.

Forget guessing at probabilities (guesstimates are to vulnerable to propaganda lines) and go for hard evidence...
 
Avimimus said:
Forget guessing at probabilities (guesstimates are to vulnerable to propaganda lines) and go for hard evidence...

The separatists *admitted* shooting the plane down (then yanked the tweet when it turned out that the plane was a little more jam-packed with civvies than they'd thought). In the absence of coersion, I tend to take admissions of guilt, freely given, fairly seriously.
 
During this tragedy, we also have to keep in mind the tragedy of Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988.

More information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
 
Triton said:
Not sure what the point of peacekeepers would be.

#1: Entertainment value.


To maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine or let the secessionists peacefully secede from the government in Kyiv?

Either. Both. Whichever. So long as it was Ukrainians beating up on Ukranians, it's a fight everyone else should stay out of. When it appeared that a Great Big Neighbor was tinkering with things to make sure that they were able to annex territory, it became time to consider options*. When the chuckleheads on the ground started blasting foreign jetliners, it became time for the EU to prove their utility.


* Consider: if one of these days the Quebecers decide to actually secceed from Canada, even if the Canucks start taking potshots at each other, the US position should be "not our deal, man." If the shooting starts and the US government starts funneling ordnance to the "rebels" with the obvious goal of chopping up Canada and grabbing bits of it for the US, I think everyone would recognize that as being Not Cool.

Now, when fighting breaks out along the demilitarized zone between the Democratic Peoples Republic of England and the Holy Scottish Haggis Empire, it'll be interesting to see whether the Caliphate of France tries to jigger things so that they end up with the Orkneys or some such.
 
Triton said:
During this tragedy, we also have to keep in mind the tragedy of Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988.

More information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Why? Are they related?
 
SAMs happen apparently. I suppose the would be how they are related?

Orionblamblam said:
* Consider: if one of these days the Quebecers decide to actually secceed from Canada, even if the Canucks start taking potshots at each other, the US position should be "not our deal, man." If the shooting starts and the US government starts funneling ordnance to the "rebels" with the obvious goal of chopping up Canada and grabbing bits of it for the US, I think everyone would recognize that as being Not Cool.

That's sweet of you Scott.

Orionblamblam said:
Avimimus said:
Forget guessing at probabilities (guesstimates are to vulnerable to propaganda lines) and go for hard evidence...

The separatists *admitted* shooting the plane down (then yanked the tweet when it turned out that the plane was a little more jam-packed with civvies than they'd thought). In the absence of coersion, I tend to take admissions of guilt, freely given, fairly seriously.

Assuming twitter can be trusted?
 
sferrin said:
Triton said:
During this tragedy, we also have to keep in mind the tragedy of Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988.

More information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Why? Are they related?

The current circumstantial evidence says yes. The Iran Air Airbus A300 was mistaken for a military aircraft by the crew of the U.S.S. Vincennes.
 
Viewed some of the uncensored photos and they are extremely graphic and nauseating. Lord have mercy.


Is there any way to know if they lost consciousness (33k feet, depressurization) before they hit the ground/burned?
 
please return to news only mode
 
kcran567 said:
Is there any way to know if they lost consciousness (33k feet, depressurization) before they hit the ground/burned?

I believe that all evidence indicates that a human suddenly exposed to the temperature and pressure and low oxygen at 33K ft would be rendered unconscious almost immediately. Few enough people can handle Mt. Everest, about 4,000 feet lower, and those who can are in great shape and take days to get to that altitude and are prepared for it. IIRC, there have been a number of people suddenly exposed, and unconsciousness was virtually universal and instantaneous.
 
Small mercy among all the bad news. I hope you're right.
 
Arjen said:
I hope you're right.

Even if you disregard the altitude effects - and going from a pressure altitude of 8000 feet to 33,000 feet in a split second should be enough to knock out just about anybody - the physical shock of suddenly being exposed to wind blowing past at ~600MPH would be like taking a Mack truck to the face. So not only were most of the passengers very probably knocked out instantly, most were probably *dead* pretty much instantly.


I was going to mention the famous story of Vesna Vulović, the sole survivor of JAT Flight 367. In 1972, the DC-9 crashed in Czechoslavakia, apparently due to a bomb in the cargo hold blowing the plane to bits at 33,000 feet. She survived, but badly injured and with no recollection of what happened after the explosion; she was rendered unconscious. But I have decided against mentioning this incident, since recently the official story has been challenged, with some believing that instead of a bomb at 33,000 feet, the jetliner was instead shot down by the Czech air force at a far lower altitude. Shrug.
 
Triton said:
During this tragedy, we also have to keep in mind the tragedy of Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988.

More information:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Another horrible tragedy, but there were a few differences.

1. There was a real, no-kidding wide area war going on at the time.

2. The Vincennes thought it was under attack. As the Wikipedia article points out, the USS Stark was hit by two Exocets the year before. In the MH 370 case, the shooters never thought they were under attack.

3. The Vincennes sent out warnings on the civilian emergency frequency. No warnings were sent in this case.

4. Although it was not discused much until years later, Aegis cruisers have the ability to automatically share tracks, and under the right atmospheric conditions, it was discovered the computers would do this over much greater distances than previously thought. It was also discovered that if the computers were not talking to each other at a given moment, it was possible they would assign the same track number to different aircraft, and then when the freakish conditions occurred that allowed them to automatically talk to each other over larger distances, they'd get confused. If one then lost the track of its a/c and the other did momentarily, it was possible for the latter Aegis to assign the track data from the datalinked target to its reacquired track. There was a (USN) F-14 track descending some distance away that some reports indicate had the same track number as the Iranian aircraft and when the Tomcat track went into "coast" when it descended it's possible the Vincennes' Aegis started displaying its data for a while on its track of the 747. Under the "scenario fulfillment" condition described by Wikipedia, this would be enough for the Vincennes crew to react before their own Aegis had time to sort things out and correct the display. This is something that can, and I assume has, been fixed through better programming.

Some have pointed out that the radar return of a 747 is much larger than that of an F-14 and that discrepancy should have given the Vincennes crew pause for the few vital seconds for the situation to correct itself. This is true. However, my understanding is that, in another example of how admittedly brilliant engineers sometimes need a reality check from the field guys, it was decided that because CG imagery was so more precise, there was no need for the Aegis dispays to normally display raw data, so the crew never saw the actual radar returns, just symbology.

I might point out that the FAA was of the same opinion prior to 9/11 and is drifting back to that view again, which is why you hear so much about the importnae of the transponder. If the FAA had been further along in its plan back in 2001, when the terrorists turned off the transponders, the airliners would have become invisible to our radars. But I digress.

Those that opine they still shouldn't have fired because what could an F-14 do to a cruiser, it should be noted that although the USN never used it as such (the Hornet being the approved Wonderstriker), the AIM-54 actually had an anti-shipping capability and the Vincennes crew would certainly know this. Even a cruiser couldn't afford to take a hit from a missile weighing hundreds of pounds with a 135 pound warhead and traveling at M3 . So intense pressure would be on not to wait. In the case of MH370, the shooters were under no such pressure, and they fired with cool rationality.

None of the above should be taken as an excuse for what happened to Iran Air 655, just an explanation and too indicate the cases are remarkably different.
 
Orionblamblam said:
Arjen said:
I hope you're right.

Even if you disregard the altitude effects - and going from a pressure altitude of 8000 feet to 33,000 feet in a split second should be enough to knock out just about anybody - the physical shock of suddenly being exposed to wind blowing past at ~600MPH would be like taking a Mack truck to the face. So not only were most of the passengers very probably knocked out instantly, most were probably *dead* pretty much instantly.

We found out years later when the Russians released the Black Boxes the Soviets said they never had from KAL 007, the crew lived for quite some time after the missiles hit. Of course those were smaller missiles hitting a bigger plane. Let's hope in this case it was instantaneous
 
Triton said:
"Lavrov: Russia won’t take control of Malaysian plane’s black boxes"
Published time: July 18, 2014 11:46
Edited time: July 18, 2014 12:39

Source:
http://rt.com/news/173820-ukraine-plane-black-boxes/

Of course they said the same thing about KAL 007's Black Boxes. I was actually watching RT las night, which had an almost not stop series of stories about how this was all Ukraine's fault.
 
http://www.infowars.com/was-flight-mh-17-diverted-over-restricted-airspace/
 
"Most Passengers on Flight MH17 Were Dutch"

Source:
http://mashable.com/2014/07/18/most-passengers-on-flight-mh17-were-dutch/

The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 that was shot down over eastern Ukraine on Thursday was carrying 298 people from at least 10 countries. The Associated Press reports more than half of the people on board were from the Netherlands.

Here is a breakdown of the nationalities of those on board:

Netherlands: 173
Malaysia: 44 (including 15 crew and two infants)
Australia: 28
Indonesia: 12 (including one infant)
United Kingdom: 9
Germany: 4
Belgium: 4
Philippines: 3
Canada: 1
New Zealand: 1
Hong Kong: 1

The nationality of another 18 passengers has not been confirmed at this point.
 
F-14D said:
Of course those were smaller missiles hitting a bigger plane. Let's hope in this case it was instantaneous

As memory serves, KAL007 got hit with a heat seeker, which would of course take out an engine. This could easily leave the airframe more or less intact, though still stricken, allowing it to lawndart into the ground in one piece. MH17 appears, based on the wide debris field, was torn to flinders at high altitude.
 
"MH17: Ukraine accuses pro-Russia rebels of taking bodies from crash site"
Kiev says pro-Russia rebels have removed bodies from crash site with help from Moscow, and are trying to destroy evidence
by Kate Hodal in Kuala Lumpur, agencies in Grabovo and Tania Branigan in Beijing
theguardian.com, Saturday 19 July 2014 09.13 EDT

Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/19/mh17-ukraine-accuses-pro-russia-rebels-removing-bodies

Ukraine's government accused pro-Russia rebels on Saturday of removing corpses from the MH17 crash site and destroying evidence.

"Terrorists brought 38 bodies to the mortuary in Donetsk," the government statement read, adding that Russian experts would presumably perform autopsies. "The terrorists are seeking for the heavy load trucks to carry the plane wreckage to Russia," the statement added.

A rebel, who identified himself as "Grumpy", neither confirmed nor denied the claims that bodies had been moved to Donetsk. "Maybe they did it, maybe not," he said. "I personally didn't do that."

On Saturday the rebels fired several shots in the air to prevent journalists from approaching to bodies at the crash site. They also fired the warning shots at OSCE monitors on Friday to prevent them from approaching the wreckage of the Malaysia Airlines flight.

The security of the crash site, outside the village of Grabovo in eastern Ukraine, is crucial to preserving evidence that will determine who and what brought the airliner down, but talks between Kiev and rebels who are in control of it have so far failed to establish a buffer zone where international investigators can work, or to give them access.

The head of Ukraine's security service, Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, said in televised remarks on Saturday that talks had agreed a 20km security zone around the site "so that Ukraine could fulfil the most important thing – identify the bodies hand them over to relatives". A senior official of the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic, however, said no agreement had been reached.

A spokesman for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Michael Bociurkiw, also said he was not aware of any agreement, and reports from the scene said there was no security zone.

A team of nearly 30 OSCE observers attempted for second time to gain access to the crash site on Saturday after meeting resistance from armed rebels on Friday. The monitors were allowed to view one part of the site under escort.

Aleksander Borodai, prime minister of the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic, denied rebels had touched the crash site but said it would move the bodies for "humanitarian" reasons and called on Russia to help. "Bodies of innocent people are lying out in the heat. We reserve the right, if the delay continues ... to begin the process of taking away the bodies. We ask the Russian Federation to help us with this problem and send their experts," he said.

Workers at the scene have recovered more than 180 bodies, which have begun to decompose under the summer sun. All 298 on board the plane were killed in the crash.

Malaysia's transport minister, Liow Tiong Lai, called on the UN on Saturday to assist with a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and ensure that investigators have safe access to the crash site so they can remove bodies as quickly as possible. Anything less would be inhumane, he said.

Investigators from the Netherlands, home to 192 of the victims, arrived in Kiev overnight. A team from Malaysia, home to 44, is also in Ukraine. The Malaysian transport minster is to join the team and attempt to gain access to the site.

Six investigators from the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch are also to join the growing international investigation. The UK Foreign Office has sent extra consular staff to Ukraine and the Metropolitan police are liaising with international partners to send specialist officers to assist with the recovery, identification and repatriation of those killed. The dead include 10 British nationals.

There is growing international condemnation of pro-Russian separatists over the incident, with Washington pointing the finger of blame at the militias. The Pentagon confirmed a surface-to-air missile fired from territory controlled by separatists brought down the plane, but stopped short of accusing Russia of supplying the weapon.

In the UK, Downing Street said it appeared increasingly likely that the catastrophe was the result of a surface-to-air missile fired from near rebel-held Torez.

The Australian prime minster, Tony Abbott, repeated his assertion on Saturday that all evidence suggests that the missile came from an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists, using equipment likely supplied by Russia.

At a charged UN security council meeting on Friday the US ambassador, Samantha Power, said the US "cannot rule out technical assistance from Russia" while the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, said Moscow "places all blame on Kiev".

Barack Obama on Friday said the circumstances of the crash, which came at the end of a week in which pro-Russian separatists claimed to have shot down Ukrainian military aircraft, suggested some Russian assistance to the rebel forces.

"We don't yet know exactly what happened with respect to Malaysia Airlines, although obviously we are beginning to draw some conclusions given the nature of the shot that was fired. There are only certain types of anti-aircraft missiles that can reach up 30,000ft and shoot down a passenger jet.

"Set aside what's happened with respect to the Malaysian airliner, a group of separatists cannot shoot down military transport planes or, they claim, shoot down fighter jets without sophisticated equipment and sophisticated training and that's coming from Russia."

The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, who has avoided discussing the issue of responsibility, said on Saturday that he hoped "a fair and objective probe will be carried out to establish the truth as early as possible".
 
Orionblamblam said:
The separatists *admitted* shooting the plane down (then yanked the tweet when it turned out that the plane was a little more jam-packed with civvies than they'd thought). In the absence of coersion, I tend to take admissions of guilt, freely given, fairly seriously.

Actually IIRC, the so-called admission was another one where the 'source' was the Ukrainians... ::)
 
Just a warning.

The amount of disinformation in this conflict has been unreal.
You simply cannot take at face value a statement that purports to state something.

The seperatist leader Strelkov for example has been quoted through his twatter and facebook pages extensively, until it was pointed out to me that he has multiple accounts on this of which all are basically fakes spreading disinformation in his name by various parties.

Welcome to the (dis)information age.
 
Orionblamblam said:
F-14D said:
Of course those were smaller missiles hitting a bigger plane. Let's hope in this case it was instantaneous

As memory serves, KAL007 got hit with a heat seeker, which would of course take out an engine. This could easily leave the airframe more or less intact, though still stricken, allowing it to lawndart into the ground in one piece. MH17 appears, based on the wide debris field, was torn to flinders at high altitude.

You are of course correct that KAL 007 did not break up in flight. However, the Soviet pilot followed standard practice and fired two missiles, one radar and two seconds later one IR. The first detonated about 150 ft. behind the fuselage and ruptured the fuselage causing decompression of the cabin. The latter impacted the left wing. We know the crew lived for at least three minutes after detonation and were trying to control the aircraft. Again, smaller missiles hitting a larger aircraft.

As an aside, the interceptor pilot freely acknowledges that the reports that tracer bullets were fired to attempt to alert the 747 were false. Makes sense; not much point in tracer bullets on an interceptor type aircraft.
 
"MH17 crash: pro-Russia rebels deny access to disaster site"
Gunmen restrict investigation team's access as David Cameron urges EU to rethink approach to Russia

Shaun Walker in Kiev, Oksana Grytsenko in Grabovo, and Philip Oltermann in Berlin
The Observer, Saturday 19 July 2014 13.17 EDT

Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/20/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-russia-victims-ukraine

Hopes for a proper investigation into the apparent shooting down of Malaysia Airlines MH17 – or even for some dignity in death for its 298 victims – faded on Saturday as chaos took hold at the disaster site in eastern Ukraine.

A small team of monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe were able to gain limited access to the site, but only under careful supervision by armed separatists. Journalists and local residents continued to roam the area of Thursday's crash, while "experts" of unknown provenance moved bodies decomposing in the baking heat from fields to the roadside and used bags to collect body parts. A spokesman for the OSCE, Michael Bociurkiw, said: "Some of the body bags are open and the damage to the corpses is very, very bad – it is very difficult to look at."

It was a horrific scene and came despite huge pressure on Moscow to force the rebels to allow proper access to the crash site, including a call from David Cameron for the EU to rethink its attitude to Russia. But as politicians and newspapers across the world lay blame for Thursday's tragedy at the door of pro-Russia separatists and Vladimir Putin personally, the Kremlin has remained defiant.

Putin has said Ukraine is to blame, and Russia's defence ministry issued a list of 10 questions for Kiev on Saturday, insinuating that it was a Ukrainian missile that downed the plane, while the self-declared prime minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, Alexander Borodai, told Russian television that the entire event had been a setup by Ukrainian authorities. "[Ukrainian president] Poroshenko promised a 'surprise' for the rebels. I think this is the surprise he was talking about – a plane full of civilians shot down," said Borodai. However, a senior Ukrainian security official claimed on Saturday that Kiev had evidence the missile was fired from separatist territory and had been fired by Russian specialists who had crossed the border with the equipment.

The Ukrainian prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, told a German newspaper that the missile required "very professional staff" and "could not be operated by drunken gorillas", suggesting that the separatists had outside help from Russia. When asked about the growing circumstantial evidence that the separatists shot down the jet in error, thinking it to be a Ukrainian airforce plane, Borodai said: "It's a lie and I hope it will be proved as a lie by experts, including international experts who have already arrived on our territory."

However, there were no recognisable international or even Ukrainian experts at the crash site, which was completely controlled by rebel gunmen. Ukraine's government on Saturday accused the rebels of deliberately removing the corpses from the crash site and destroying the evidence, claiming that 38 bodies had been removed to a Donetsk mortuary. Rebels on the scene refused to comment on this, but again made life difficult for OSCE observers at the site. "We have to be very careful with our movements because of all the security … We are unarmed civilians, so we are not in a position to argue with people with heavy arms," said Bociurkiw.

Interfax reported that 132 Malaysian experts, including medical workers and military officials, had arrived in Kiev on Saturday to join the investigation, but it was not clear whether they would be able to visit the site.

More than half of the victims were Dutch, but there were 10 Britons, including two Newcastle United fans on their way to a match in New Zealand and a press officer from the World Health Organisation. The four dead Britons yet to be identified were named on Saturday as John Allen, a Netherlands-based lawyer who died with his wife Sandra, and their sons Christopher, Julian and Ian; Robert Ayley, 28, a dog breeder and father of two who came from Guildford in Surrey, but lived in New Zealand; Stephen Anderson, 44, who lived in Penang in Malaysia; and Andrew Hoare, who is believed to have been travelling with several members of his family.

International pressure on Russia is growing, with Europeans considering imposing a new set of sanctions on Moscow, in line with the latest round of US sanctions for events in Ukraine, introduced on Wednesday, before the crash.

With increased economic ties to Russia, European nations have been more reluctant than Washington to impose harsh measures, but there is growing anger with the Kremlin. Downing Street said on Saturday night that David Cameron and his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte had called for the EU to "reconsider its approach to Russia" in light of the evidence that pro-Moscow separatists brought down flight MH17. Rutte's anger increased on Saturday night following what he called a "very intense" conversation with Putin. Rutte said: "He has one last chance to show he means to help [rescuers recover the bodies]."

Referring to allegations that bodies of the passengers, including 193 of his countrymen, were being treated disrespectfully and allowed to rot at the scene, he said: "I was shocked at the pictures of utterly disrespectful behaviour at this tragic spot."

Russia's ambassador to the UK, Alexander Yakovenko, has been summoned to the Foreign Office to be told that Putin must use his influence on the separatists to ensure access to the crash site, No 10 said. In Germany, Andreas Schockenhoff, a senior ally of chancellor Angela Merkel, told the Observer: "The disaster in the Ukraine has made it clear beyond all doubt that we are not dealing with a bilateral conflict, but a serious threat to the peace all across Europe."

Schockenhoff said Russia was "not a neutral actor in the conflict" since it had armed and trained the separatists. He called on Europe to show "a united front and make any failure to cooperate very painful for Putin".

Meanwhile, the Russian foreign ministry published a list of 12 US citizens who are now banned from entry to Russia in response to the latest US sanctions. They include officials involved in the running of the Guantánamo detention facility and military personnel involved with the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal.

Fighting has continued between the Ukrainian army and separatists in east Ukraine since the crash on Thursday, with more than 20 civilians reported to have died in Luhansk on Friday. Ukrainian authorities claimed they had evidence of military equipment transferred to the area from Russia in the early hours of Saturday morning.
 
If we didn't witness this already:

"MH17 amps up 'he said, she said' in Russian and Ukrainian media"

Strange rumors, unsubstantiated claims, and the blame game between Russian and Ukrainian media persists as the world demands answers over MH17.
By Lydia Tomkiw, Staff writer July 18, 2014

Source:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0718/MH17-amps-up-he-said-she-said-in-Russian-and-Ukrainian-media-video

The information war between Russia and Ukraine took on an even more high-stakes game of "he said, she said" today, with rumors and unsubstantiated claims circulating about the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine.

The media war between the neighboring countries has been going on for months, with Russian media labeling the protesters on Kiev's Maidan Square as fascists. Russia's annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian government's battle against separatists only exacerbated the cross-border media battle.

US officials are eying Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine as responsible for yesterday's plane crash. However, many media groups in Russia are continuing to toe the Kremlin line.
 
Jetliner destruction & passenger survival at altitude

As a followup to THIS brief discussion...
Expert says MH17 victims would not have suffered after plane blast
University of Canberra adjunct professor David Royds said if the initial blast did not kill the passengers, a rapid decompression and freezing temperatures at 33,000 feet would have caused instant death.“Flying at more than 10km above the ground, the mid-air explosion would have caused the cabin temperature to drop to minus 50C with a sudden drop of air pressure and loss of oxygen,” he said.
“That extremely cold environment would have rendered the passengers unconscious within seconds.
“It’s very unlikely the passengers would have suffered, there would have been no time to worry.”
So... there's that.
 
For 40km, Passenger Planes Are Sitting Ducks

"For 40km, Passenger Planes Are Sitting Ducks"
By Roger Howard / July 22, 2014 8:44 AM EDT

Source:
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/08/01/40km-passenger-planes-are-sitting-ducks-260370.html

Airlines and governments have rushed to offer assurances about how a similar disaster will never happen again. But some security and aviation experts have told Newsweek that the fate of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 may prove to heighten, not diminish, the dangers to civilian flights. They believe that an insurgent group could use relatively simple military hardware – much less sophisticated than the equipment used in Ukraine – to bring down an airliner and that some of the world’s busiest airline hubs could now be under threat.

International terrorist groups will be conscious of the huge publicity that has been focused on the loss of MH17. They would regard the destruction of an airliner as a huge achievement from which they could not just reap a huge death toll – a 747 can carry as many as 467 passengers – but generate a massive level of exposure that would be focused on their cause.

“Events like MH17 and the impact it has had – with a global audience – will only serve to inspire terrorist groups such as Isis and al-Qaida,” says Mark Birdsall, editor of international security magazine Eye Spy. “It is a graphic reminder that downing a passenger plane would devastate the morale of their perceived enemy, massively denting confidence.” He adds that insurgent groups, like ordinary criminals, also “have a tendency to imitate counterparts, carrying out copycat attacks perhaps because they are inspired by an example or else because they don’t want to lose the limelight”.

Even lightly-armed militias, with little formal training, are capable of perpetrating such attacks. All aircraft are vulnerable when they take off and land, points out Chris Yates, a leading authority and consultant on aviation safety. “This is when airliners are at significant risk and vulnerable to small arms fire that is quite capable of downing any airliner.” These small arms – such as portable missiles fired from the shoulder – are becoming not just more lethal but more widely available. Justin Bronk, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, points out that two heat-seeking missiles, the SA-18 and its “even more lethal replacement” the SA-24, are “amongst the most effective man-portable anti-aircraft systems today”.

Carrying a 1.8kg warhead over a range of more than 5km, the SA-24 heat-seeking missile is a deadly weapon even against warplanes, having brought down Nato aircraft in war zones such as Bosnia and Iraq. Fired from the shoulder, these weapons are easy to transport and relatively cheap to buy, costing just a few thousand dollars to purchase in the international arms market. They are also easy to operate, with a simple trigger and straightforward optical guidance system. Just one of these missiles can bring down a 747 and each poses, “a significant threat to any aircraft below 6,000 metres”, says Bronk.

This relatively close range option presents an attacker with considerable opportunity. “Airliners start to reach the 6,000m threshold a considerable distance – around 40km– from the airport where they touch down,” says Robert Mark, a commercial pilot and publisher of Jetwhine.com. An airliner might take about 12 minutes to fly this 40km distance as it takes off and lands, although this time might vary considerably. So any ­passenger jet, even making the shortest of trips, might potentially be exposed to such dangers for around 40km of its journey time, perhaps more.

Aircraft are more vulnerable in developing countries that lack the effective infrastructure to keep tight control over such large swathes of territory. It was significant that insurgents chose to attack, and narrowly missed, an El Al plane as it took off from Mombasa, Kenya in November 2002, firing just 1.5km from the runway. However, it would be even easier for attackers to take cover, directly under a flight path, in the big cities of the developing world. Aircraft most at risk are those with flight paths leading directly over vast urban areas, such as New Delhi, Lahore and Johannesburg.

Deadly portable weapons have proliferated. Perhaps hundreds of others also allegedly ­disappeared from Libya during the civil conflict in 2011. But Syria has really been the game-changer.

“The drawn-out conflict in Syria has certainly increased small arms proliferation in the region,” says Bronk. “Non-state actors like Isis and Al Nusra have captured large stockpiles of small arms from government forces in both Syria and Iraq. What’s more, Chinese versions of these missile systems are also reportedly being covertly supplied to opposition forces in Syria.”

Many insurgent groups possess more sophisticated SA-7 heat-seeking missiles, which are specifically designed to bring down aircraft.

These missiles, which have a range of about 3,000m, are easy to carry around and require just a few hours training to operate effectively. The US Federal Aviation Authority currently advises international airlines against flying over Congo beneath a certain altitude precisely because of the danger they pose: in October 1998 rebels brought down a B-727 with a single, simple SA-7 missile.

However, very few airlines appear to have taken effective precautions against such ­dangers. “Other than a handful of Middle Eastern and Russian private jets, only Israel’s national ­airline, El Al, is known to have taken technical countermeasures to fend off the threat posed by heat-seeking missiles,” says Professor Norman Shanks, an expert on aviation safety.

After the Mombasa attack in 2002, El Al became the world’s first airline to fit an anti-­missile protection system but others have not ­followed their example. So a slow-moving airliner potentially would be a sitting duck against a missile like the SA-24.
 
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