Some old (2009-2011) but informative articles from Inside Defense and Defense Daily..

Pentagon: Long-Range Strike Study To Relook Power Projection Concept

The Defense Department's ongoing long-range strike study will re-examine the "whole concept of power projection," according to a Pentagon official.

The study is in the early stages, but the goal is to produce insights by early fall, in time to influence the Office of the Secretary of Defense's review of the services' fiscal year 2012 program objective memorandum (POM-12) submissions, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development David Ochmanek told Inside the Pentagon.

"We're looking at the portfolio of long-range strike capabilities," Ochmanek said, including "supporting elements of that, whether it's penetrating [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance]; survivable command and control communications; weapons and munitions; base infrastructure -- really the whole concept of power projection is being relooked at."


There are no early takeaways from the study yet, Ochmanek said in an April 21 interview.

"No, we're still at the point of refining the specific scenarios to be looked at, the target sets, the modalities of the analysis," he said. The analysis is mulling the appropriate mix of long-range strike capabilities, including heavy bombers and non-nuclear Prompt Global Strike. The Quadrennial Defense Review called for the study to determine the best mix of joint persistent surveillance, electronic warfare, and precision-attack capabilities -- including both penetrating platforms and stand-off weapons -- for U.S. power projection over the next 20 to 30 years.

"We have been examining the potential as well for some sort of nontraditional long-range strike assets," Ochmanek said. "You've heard about the Prompt Global Strike set of concepts. Where do they fit into an overall concept of operations? So that's been going on sort of in parallel with an analysis of more traditional things like bombers and cruise missiles."

To meet the potential threats to the American military's ability to project power, deter aggression, and come to the aid of allies and partners, the QDR directs more focus and investment in a new air-sea battle concept, long-range strike, space and cyberspace, among other conventional and strategic modernization programs.

The QDR notes the Air Force is eying ways to field survivable, long-range surveillance and strike aircraft as part of a plan to modernize the bomber force and working with the Navy on options for a new joint cruise missile.

The Navy, meanwhile, is mulling ways to expand the capacity of future Virginia-class attack submarines for long-range strike while also planning experiments with prototypes of a Naval Unmanned Combat Aerial System, a drone that might one day greatly boost the range of carrier-based ISR and strike operations. In a speech Monday at the Navy League's annual conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates touted such efforts.

Gates called for extending the range at which U.S. naval forces can fight, refuel and strike with more resources devoted to long-range unmanned aircraft and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; developing new sea-based missile defenses; giving the submarine force "expanded roles," including conducting more missions deep inside an enemy's battle network; increasing sub strike capability and using smaller and unmanned underwater platforms.

"Looking forward, we are focused on the challenge of anti-access adversaries and how we do power projection in a world where our adversaries have more capabilities to threaten our forces and bases in theaters of operation than has been the case in the past," Ochmanek said.

The QDR discusses that, makes some "down payments on capabilities" and moves in that direction, "but there is more to be done," Ochmanek added.

"We know other nations are working on asymmetric ways to thwart the reach and striking power of the U.S. battle fleet," Gates said Monday. "At the low end, Hezbollah, a nonstate actor, used anti-ship missiles against the Israeli navy in 2006. And Iran is combining ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, mines and swarming speedboats in order to challenge our naval power in that region."

At the higher end of the access-denial spectrum, he said, U.S. forces now face long-range, accurate anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles with the capability to strike from over the horizon.

"This is a particular concern with aircraft carriers and other large, multibillion-dollar blue-water surface combatants, where, for example, a Ford-class carrier plus its full complement of the latest aircraft would represent potentially a $15 [billion] to $20 billion set of hardware at risk," Gates said.

Gates said the agreement by the Navy and the Air Force to collaborate on an air-sea battle concept is "an encouraging development, which has the potential to do for America's military deterrent power at the beginning of the 21st century what air-land battle did near the end of the 20th." Work on the concept is progressing, Ochmanek said.

"That's going on as well between the Air Force and the Navy and we're very hopeful that's going to come up with some new ways to skin this cat," he told ITP. "There's still in the study and analysis phase but we're kind of following that pretty closely."


Schwartz Scales Back Requirements For Next-Generation Bomber

The Air Force's top officer this week said the U.S. military's next-generation bomber will not be a "lone wolf" aircraft that operates without escort, noting that the requirements now being considered by the Defense Department for a new, long-range strike capability are less ambitious than previous Pentagon plans for a future bomber.

"I think that's clear," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz said in reply to a question asking whether capabilities currently being envisioned for the new bomber are more "modest" than prior plans "At least at the start, this airplane will not be a lone wolf. It wouldn't have everything on it that you would need to operate independently of everything else in the portfolio."

In early March, Defense Department leaders began in earnest an effort to hammer out a plan to modernize its bomber force. Defense Secretary Robert Gates called for the study in December as a follow-up to an assessment of potential long-range strike capabilities conducted last year in support of the Quadrennial Defense Review.

The goal is to determine what combination of joint persistent surveillance, electronic warfare and precision-attack capabilities -- launched from either penetrating or stand-off aircraft -- will best suit U.S. operations for the next three decades.

The working group includes leaders from the Pentagon's policy shop, the office of cost assessment and program evaluation and the Joint Staff as well as other key stakeholders in a future bomber program -- among them representatives from the Air Force, the Navy, U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Pacific Command. In addition, the working group is being supported by the RAND Corp., the Institute for Defense Analyses and Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory.

"People have different views about how big it should be, how far it should be able to go, what kind of weapon payload it might carry," Schwartz said March 30. "These are serious questions that generalists, like me, and analysts, like others, have to wrestle with. That's what lies in front of us."

Schwartz would only outline in broad terms the Air Force's position in the closed-door discussions.

"Clearly we believe -- the Air Force believes -- there is a need in the defense portfolio for something between an F-35 and a conventional ICBM," the Air Force four-star said. "The country needs something in that space. Now what we have to do is we need to persuade the leadership -- both uniformed and civilian in the building -- that what we have in mind is appropriate, affordable and that it has very little if any wishful thinking associated with it."

The Pentagon's five-year investment blueprint allocates $1.7 billion to fund work on capabilities expected to be incorporated in the future platform, whatever shape it takes, Schwartz said.

"The idea here is to have industry work on things that clearly have value to a long-range strike platform without regard for who the manufacturer is or the precise design," Schwartz said in remarks to an audience of defense contractors and uniformed officials. "And as you are aware, the ultimate decision on proceeding forward with a specific program of record will be decided this cycle. Needless to say, we will argue, we will debate, we will be strongly involved in the discussion on this."

Air Force Expects Streamlined Next Generation Bomber In Next Decade - DefenseDaily

The United States will likely develop a new bomber airplane over the next decade, but the Air Force's top military leader said yesterday that he does not expect the next-generation platform to be capable of conducting the bomber mission entirely on its own.

"It might not have all the capabilities that you would embed in a single platform to do that whole mission all by itself," Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz told reporters on the sideline of the IFPA-Fletcher national security conference in Washington, D.C.

"Part of this will involve a commitment to a family of systems that are more interdependent and mutually supportive than we have looked at previously," he added.

Schwartz said he is confident that the Air Force has answered questions raised by Defense Secretary Robert Gates about the proposed program. Gates suspended the effort a year ago, asking the Air Force to better flesh out its ideas before proceeding with development.

Schwartz said yesterday that he expects "certain, very finite parameters on the program" from Gates "when, and if, it is ultimately endorsed by his team."

A formal analysis of alternatives process will likely be opened "shortly" after fiscal year 2011, Schwartz added.

Earlier in the day, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said the Pentagon plans to "mature a portfolio of capabilities--manned and unmanned, penetrating and standoff, ballistic and cruise missile" for the new long-range strike capability.

Lynn said that both military and civilian officials in the Pentagon think that a single new bomber platform would not meet the military's needs.

He also noted that the United States will likely face greater enemy air defenses in the future, noting that the military's ability to penetrate enemy territory is "more fraught with challenges that it has been in memory."
 
sferrin said:
marauder2048 said:
Sorry for the delay in replying; it would have saved some debate. Boeing's LRSA effort cruised at 60,000+ ft. I thought the LRSA effort was well known 'round
these parts? Quite a few of the sub-systems were matured in the public domain.

Yes, there is all kinds of notional artwork floating around from the time but you sounded as though you had a very specific design in mind. Do you have any detail/artwork/something-that-says-this-specifically-is-Boeing's-design?

It is a very specific design (that's been referenced in a bunch of presos and papers) but I've never seen a notional depiction that has been explicitly matched to the specs. The Mach 2 weapons release done under HIFEX back in 2008 was part of the overall effort though.
 
NG was presenting supersonic options as well, through 2005 at least. Some of that had come out of DARPA's QSP project.


However, if you review the papers and research from that time, the magnitude of the tech demonstration work needed before you could think about launching a program was impressive. It would have been hard to envision a supersonic "2018 bomber" in 2006, and the AF didn't seem excited about it. Given that the 2018-oriented NGB was the goal until 2009 and that the LRS-B arose from its ashes in less than two years, it's also difficult to see how it could have gone supersonic in that time.


So it would be very surprising if LRSB is anything other than a subsonic BWB... and of course there are those pesky laws of physics to consider.
 
I just want to see this roll out a stable to stun the world. Would make my aviation fandom complete.
 

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LowObservable said:
So it would be very surprising if LRSB is anything other than a subsonic BWB... and of course there are those pesky laws of physics to consider.


I would have to find the references, but the conclusion reached was the supersonic options were the highest risk and highest life cycle costs - by a wide margin. That is why to focus shifted away from high speed bombers.


It is still possible that concepts like Persistor were pursued - and there is some information that supports that - but it is far more likely that both designs are subsonic wings.
 
quellish said:
I would have to find the references, but the conclusion reached was the supersonic options were the highest risk and highest life cycle costs - by a wide margin. That is why to focus shifted away from high speed bombers.

There was an Institute For Defense Analysis study that came to (almost verbatim) those conclusions.
IIRC, the recurring "knee in the curve" for greater than sub-sonic speed as a contributor to survivability was around Mach 3+.
 
quellish said:
LowObservable said:
So it would be very surprising if LRSB is anything other than a subsonic BWB... and of course there are those pesky laws of physics to consider.


I would have to find the references, but the conclusion reached was the supersonic options were the highest risk and highest life cycle costs - by a wide margin. That is why to focus shifted away from high speed bombers.


It is still possible that concepts like Persistor were pursued - and there is some information that supports that - but it is far more likely that both designs are subsonic wings.

There is more risk & costs designing a supersonic airplane versus subsonic That's not a shock to anyone who knows anything about aircraft design. Subsonic is cheaper. So let's build LO turboprops since they are cheaper then jets.

The DoD used to not care a subsonic AC was cheaper than a supersonic one if supersonic was what was needed.
 
tacitblue said:
quellish said:
LowObservable said:
So it would be very surprising if LRSB is anything other than a subsonic BWB... and of course there are those pesky laws of physics to consider.


I would have to find the references, but the conclusion reached was the supersonic options were the highest risk and highest life cycle costs - by a wide margin. That is why to focus shifted away from high speed bombers.


It is still possible that concepts like Persistor were pursued - and there is some information that supports that - but it is far more likely that both designs are subsonic wings.

There is more risk & costs designing a supersonic airplane versus subsonic That's not a shock to anyone who knows anything about aircraft design. Subsonic is cheaper. So let's build LO turboprops since they are cheaper then jets.

The DoD used to not care a subsonic AC was cheaper than a supersonic one if supersonic was what was needed.


For the mission requirements, it turns out supersonic isn't needed and, when it comes to stealth, subsonic is much better than supersonic. Low boom tech isn't no boom tech.
 
tacitblue said:
There is more risk & costs designing a supersonic airplane versus subsonic That's not a shock to anyone who knows anything about aircraft design. Subsonic is cheaper. So let's build LO turboprops since they are cheaper then jets.

The DoD used to not care a subsonic AC was cheaper than a supersonic one if supersonic was what was needed.
I think that's a slippery slope type of argument. Defining requirements has always been trying to figure out the middle ground between conflicting requirements, space, cost, not just going either extreme polar ends. And yes, cost is a factor. The cheaper it is, the more you can build, which does translate into mission effectiveness.
 
AFMagazine Oct15

The Future of Long-Range Strike
 

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U.S. Weapons Buyer Says He's Likely to Allow Bomber Contract


The Pentagon’s top weapons buyer, Frank Kendall, says he’ll probably soon give the Air Force permission to award the contract for the next U.S. long-range bomber because extensive preparations have indicated “we have viable bids.”
The Air Force can proceed only after Kendall, undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics, convenes a Defense Acquisition Board review to assess the service’s readiness to award a contract in the competition that pits Northrop Grumman Corp. against a team of Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. Kendall said he hopes a date for the review, which often signals to investors that a contract award is coming within days, can be decided this month.
“When I look at a program, I look at whether it’s affordable, whether the program plan is executable -- is it a reasonable schedule, reasonable amount of money, reasonable requirements?” Kendall said in an interview. “I already did all that. So unless we learn something from the bids that changes some of those parameters, it’s merely a matter of verifying that those parameters were valid.”
“I do not consider this to be a difficult decision,” Kendall said. Asked to compare it with previous reviews for multibillion-dollar weapons systems, he said it’s far easier than the year-long negotiations he led with Lockheed, ending in 2012, for 32 F-35s in the fighter’s fifth production lot.


$800 Million Each


The Long-Range Strike Bomber may cost more $800 million each in today’s dollars when development costs are included, some analysts have estimated, and a fleet of 100 is planned. The bomber, scheduled for first deployment in the mid-2020s, will be one of the Pentagon’s biggest weapons systems over the next decade.
The House Armed Services Committee in May cut $460 million from the $1.25 billion fiscal 2016 request for the bomber because the selection had been delayed four months. The Senate Armed Services panel agreed.
The program has been shrouded in secrecy, including how much has been spent in the past three to four years on classified contracts to prepare the way. Air Force Secretary Deborah James has pledged to disclose more cost details when the contract is released.
Air Force officials have said that the competing contractors have been conducting development work since 2011 under classified contracts to minimize technology challenges.
“We’re comfortable with the risk reduction that’s been taking place,” Kendall said.
After the review board approves going ahead, the Air Force “will have to make a choice, then off we’ll go,” he said of the bomber competition.
The plane is envisioned as the eventual successor to the aging B-1B and B-52 bombers. It’s being designed to carry both guided conventional munitions and a planned new long-range nuclear cruise missile.
 
tacitblue said:
Subsonic is cheaper. So let's build LO turboprops since they are cheaper then jets.

The DoD used to not care a subsonic AC was cheaper than a supersonic one if supersonic was what was needed.


If turboprops meet all the requirements, why not?
 
First time I've seen this mentioned. :eek: It's not in the Bloomberg article up thread though I assume from the same event.

The program is also unusually advanced in terms of design and testing; the Air Force already has two robust prototypes in hand.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/strike/2015/10/06/usaf-final-closing-phase-bomber-contract/73450104/

Time to look again at those Amarillo photos?
 
Apologies, I didn't notice the date in the link; I also misread the quote (assuming they're not making assumptions based on previous information). This is what I thought it was being quoted from:

bobbymike said:
The Bomber Countdown Has Started

The Air Force is within weeks of issuing a final request for proposals for the new Long-Range Strike Bomber and expects to choose a single contractor to build the airplane “nominally in about a year,” service acquisition executive William LaPlante told Air Force Magazine in an interview. A draft RFP has been out for some time, and while there are “still some iterations going on” between USAF and its contractors over what the final RFP will say, “hopefully that will wrap up soon,” LaPlante said. The downselect in Spring of 2015 will narrow the field of competitors to just one contractor or team, he said. The competition phase has not been limited to “paper studies,” he allowed, but includes flying demonstrators or better. “We will have variants of technical articles … if you want to call them ‘prototypes,’” he said, and this fact, though previously undisclosed, should be no surprise because the program is “relying on relatively mature technologies,” LaPlante explained. Some of these flying demonstrators are the product of “internal resources that industry has already; some of it is stuff that we have funded through various programs over the years.” The product will therefore be “a combination of government (and) … internal investment” from the contractors. A team of Boeing and Lockheed Martin has said it is pursuing the LRS-B contract, and Northrop Grumman is also expected to be in the running.​
—John A. Tirpak
5/29/2014
 
"Some of these flying demonstrators "

Interesting. Hope we get to see them someday soon.

On another note:

"The LRS-B will extend American air dominance against next generation capabilities in an anti-access environment by its long-range, significant payload and survivability.” "

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/167600/usaf-leaders-testify-on-bomber-structure%2C-plans.html

So I wonder if he means in comparison to fighters or that he's implying it's going to be more like B-1B/B-2/B-52 class in payload? ???
 
One B83 is "significant".


I think all we can deduce from that is "more than you routinely see on a fighter" or >6000 lb. Which we knew already.


And if they don't show the prototypes, doesn't that mean that the responsible people have made the right decisions about secrecy? I seem to recall a discussion on those lines a few pages back.
 
LowObservable said:
One B83 is "significant".

100% certain that was not the definition he was using.

LowObservable said:
I think all we can deduce from that is "more than you routinely see on a fighter" or >6000 lb. Which we knew already.

Given they've said nothing specific about the payload prior there was no reason to believe that. If you have numbers I'd love to see them.


LowObservable said:
And if they don't show the prototypes, doesn't that mean that the responsible people have made the right decisions about secrecy? I seem to recall a discussion on those lines a few pages back.

I trust you know the difference between "I hope we get to see them" and "I think we have a right to see them"?
 
Based on what has been said previously, I assume these prototypes are what Edwards south base is preparing for? My question, then, is will we also see the design/prototype flown by the losing team? It would be nice to compare/contrast the designs. Of course, if the vehicle(s) in question are privately funded, then they are proprietary technology and it would be partially up to the company to allow it/them to be revealed provided the government approved it with regard to their classification status.


Still, it would be nice to see both the proposed final designs and the competing prototype/demonstrators.
 
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.
 
Sundog said:
Based on what has been said previously, I assume these prototypes are what Edwards south base is preparing for? My question, then, is will we also see the design/prototype flown by the losing team? It would be nice to compare/contrast the designs. Of course, if the vehicle(s) in question are privately funded, then they are proprietary technology and it would be partially up to the company to allow it/them to be revealed provided the government approved it with regard to their classification status.


Still, it would be nice to see both the proposed final designs and the competing prototype/demonstrators.
Lockheed Martin is still extremely tight-lipped about its losing ATB - Senior Peg. -SP
 
sferrin said:
LowObservable said:
One B83 is "significant".

100% certain that was not the definition he was using.

It would be an especially baffling definition given that the the B83 is scheduled to be out of the inventory by the time LRS-B undergoes nuclear certification.
 
marauder2048 said:
It would be an especially baffling definition given that the the B83 is scheduled to be out of the inventory by the time LRS-B undergoes nuclear certification.

Yet another brilliant move. Death by a thousand cuts.
 
sferrin said:
marauder2048 said:
It would be an especially baffling definition given that the the B83 is scheduled to be out of the inventory by the time LRS-B undergoes nuclear certification.

Yet another brilliant move. Death by a thousand cuts.

My understanding is that it's contingent on the B61-12 entering inventory in sufficient numbers. But I agree that it's not wise to give up your
hardened silo killer while Ivan is treating INF like it's FIN
 
sferrin said:
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.
 

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sferrin said:
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.
 

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marauder2048 said:
sferrin said:
marauder2048 said:
It would be an especially baffling definition given that the the B83 is scheduled to be out of the inventory by the time LRS-B undergoes nuclear certification.

Yet another brilliant move. Death by a thousand cuts.

My understanding is that it's contingent on the B61-12 entering inventory in sufficient numbers. But I agree that it's not wise to give up your
hardened silo killer while Ivan is treating INF like it's FIN

Isn't the B61-12 just a modification of already existing bombs? It's not like we're building NEW bombs. Come to think of it, I'm pretty sure the last new nuclear warhead we built was a W88 right before the Feds shut down the facility back in the 80s. And, of course, China swiped the design. . .
 
sferrin said:
marauder2048 said:
sferrin said:
marauder2048 said:
It would be an especially baffling definition given that the the B83 is scheduled to be out of the inventory by the time LRS-B undergoes nuclear certification.

Yet another brilliant move. Death by a thousand cuts.

My understanding is that it's contingent on the B61-12 entering inventory in sufficient numbers. But I agree that it's not wise to give up your
hardened silo killer while Ivan is treating INF like it's FIN

Isn't the B61-12 just a modification of already existing bombs? It's not like we're building NEW bombs. Come to think of it, I'm pretty sure the last new nuclear warhead we built was a W88 right before the Feds shut down the facility back in the 80s. And, of course, China swiped the design. . .
Not only that but language in the NDAA explicitly prohibits work on new weapons/designs. The only nuclear power that tells it's scientists to not develop anything new. :mad:
 
bobbymike said:
Not only that but language in the NDAA explicitly prohibits work on new weapons/designs. The only nuclear power that tells it's scientists to not develop anything new. :mad:

One could be forgiven for thinking Washington wants to run the country off a cliff.
 
sferrin said:
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.

That would seem a rather long way round to get to their end point. After all if that was a more agreeable solution then surely other competitions would adopt this method rather than the more full blooded prototypes actually seen such as the YF-22/23 & I don't see why this should be any different.
 
Flyaway said:
sferrin said:
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.

That would seem a rather long way round to get to their end point. After all if that was a more agreeable solution then surely other competitions would adopt this method rather than the more full blooded prototypes actually seen such as the YF-22/23 & I don't see why this should be any different.

Is there any evidence to suggest flying demonstrators were built for the ATB (that lead to the B-2)?
 
Tacit Blue demonstrated the core technologies for B-2. The YF-22 and YF-23 weren't true prototypes either but technology demonstrators for selected technologies.
 
Quellish - do you have links to any studies which looked at speed vs stealth in aircraft survivability?

Thanks,
 
PaulMM (Overscan) said:
Tacit Blue demonstrated the core technologies for B-2. The YF-22 and YF-23 weren't true prototypes either but technology demonstrators for selected technologies.

And don't forget all the demonstrators for various things leading up to them like the AFTI F-16/F-111, X-29, F-15 SMTD etc.
 
Mat Parry said:
Flyaway said:
sferrin said:
I don't get the impression they're prototype bombers in the vein of the YF-22/23, but more like demonstrators for particular technologies. Think Tacit Blue, X-36, Bird of Prey, etc.

That would seem a rather long way round to get to their end point. After all if that was a more agreeable solution then surely other competitions would adopt this method rather than the more full blooded prototypes actually seen such as the YF-22/23 & I don't see why this should be any different.

Is there any evidence to suggest flying demonstrators were built for the ATB (that lead to the B-2)?

Wasn't there supposed to be a classified subscale version of the B-2, I'm sure that was mentioned on here ages back?
 
MY point is, if there are 2 prototypes flying for LRS-B then it is far from certain we will ever see them (ie. ATB prototype rumours)
 
Mat Parry said:
MY point is, if there are 2 prototypes flying for LRS-B then it is far from certain we will ever see them (ie. ATB prototype rumours)
Here's a thought: If indeed prototypes are flying what are they designated - XB/YB-3 and XB/YB-4 or what? -SP
 

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